(05-20-2012 10:01 PM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(05-20-2012 09:49 PM)firmbizzle Wrote:  The dems have been losing the hard working white male vote for 20 years.

True. But he made serious inroads with them in the last election.

Quote:The white woman vote is going to counter that. Women are not feeling Romney.

Dems typically enjoy a double digit lead with women. The latest CBS/NYT poll actually shows Romney winning them. A month ago Obama was leading by 6 points. Actually not good given historic trends for dems.

Women aren't buying the war on women lie and polls are showing it. Romney won't win the women vote I can't imagine. But the problem Obama has is few of them actually believe Romney wants a war on women. If Santorum were the nominee you could get that to stick.

Quote:Latinos aren't feeling Romney. He will lose that by 40 points.

How many of them show up to vote though? And Obama's record on the economy, his failure to deliver anything in the way of immigration reform, or even really talk about it much, and latest position on gay marriage all hurt him. He needs them to get out and vote, but they're not really motivated to do so. And if Romney has Rubio on the ticket there's no chance Obama pulls a 40 point win.

Quote:The black vote is going to Obama 96-3.

Irrelevant. Dems always carry 90+% of the black vote. And you have to get them out to vote. They're not as excited about him now as they once were. And his position on gay marriage hurts him with them as well.

Quote:The Asian vote will also go to Obama by 15+ points.

Name for me one single swing state where this group makes a difference. The largest pockets of them are in states Obama will win anyway.

Quote:Another wildcard is Romney's flip flipping. If he flips on earlier conservative positions, his vote will leave him.

Won't happen. Romney's staked out his positions at this point. He won't move from them.

National polls don't mean much. The Latino vote will be huge in the west. They are now 17% of the population. The Black vote will come out. They aren't going to let the first black president get defeated.
By Asian vote, I mean all people of Asian decent. .ie Indians, Pakistanis, Chinese, Japanese, Arab, etc. In most places this vote won't matter except for the VA suburbs around DC. I think they push VA toward Obama.
Swing states: OH,PA,MI,VA,NC,FL,NV,NM,CO,WI,IA,NH

Obama: OH,PA,MI,VA,NM,CO,WI,NH
Romney:NC,FL,IA,NV

(05-21-2012 09:08 AM)Rebel Wrote:  

(05-21-2012 08:32 AM)firmbizzle Wrote:  

(05-20-2012 10:42 PM)Rebel Wrote:  There are so many ABO voters this year it's unreal. Due to my job and traveling to all over the nation, it's not just in the south, Robert, you anti-southern f*ck.

I thought the same thing about W. There was a strong anti-Bush vote in 2004. However, there was a strong pro-Bush vote that was very silent. There was no strong pro-Kerry vote. Kerry was a better politician and had a better resume than Romney. Huckabee, McCain, Jeb could all beat Obama. I don't think Romney can.

It was based on the war, not the economy. Also to say there was a strong anti-Bush feeling at the time, wrong. The very vocal Dims were out there, as they are with any R, but the independents were still benefitting from a strong economy. This election will be about the one issue Obama doesn't want to talk about, the economy. He's toast.

The economy isn't bad everywhere. In my state it dropped from 10.3% to 8.2% in 1 year.
I've been eating Sunday breakfast at the same place for 6 years. Every week it has been getting busier and busier. Yesterday, I had to wait an hour and a half to sit down. Things are getting better. The question that Mittens hasn't answered is how he plans on doing a better job. It's got to be more than tax cuts and deregulation. We've seen that movie before.

Romney will win VA.

NC is no longer a swing state. Obama has zero shot of winning NC. The democrats in NC are in complete disaray. I'm betting Obama is really regretting having their convention in Charlotte this year. Perdue was a disaster, so much she's not even running for reelection. Republicans took control of both state houses for the first time in decades. There's a huge scandal with the state party chair. Obama will not win NC.

Agree national polls mean little, but they do show a trend. And the trends aren't good for Obama in many of them.

I'm not saying Romney doesn't have an uphill climb. But the dems that think this election is a lock for Obama are deluding themselves in monumental fashion.

The math makes it still very difficult for Romney to get to 270. Even with VA and NC, he still doesnt get to 270. Romney must win all of those states and Ohio. I don't get too excited about polls before the summer. Talk to me in August with some state polls and it will be much clearer.

May 18th, 2012 ... You GOPers had six months and couldn't move the needle. I would say that you're a bunch of idiots, but today you're just a bunch of losers.

(11-07-2012 09:38 PM)UM2001GRAD Wrote:  May 18th, 2012 ... You GOPers had six months and couldn't move the needle. I would say that you're a bunch of idiots, but today you're just a bunch of losers.

No one missed you.