MTPiKapp
Socialist
Posts: 16,860
Joined: Dec 2007
Reputation: 716
I Root For: MiddleTennessee
Location: Roswell, GA
|
RE: Sagarin Ratings are out
(08-26-2012 01:01 PM)Glassonion Wrote: (08-26-2012 12:12 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote: While I certainly agree that there isn't a rigid totem pole, there is a totem pole of sorts, a caste system, tiers...whatever you prefer and certainly within every conference there are programs that exist in different castes tiers or levels of the totem pole, Vandy certainly doesn't belong anywhere near the top despite being in the best conference. Having said that wherever you put them in pecking order they have an asterisk by their name due to their conference. Because of the resources they have and their conference affiliation they can fast track to a higher tier, look at Stanfords meteoric rise they're a program that just six seasons ago went 1-11 and scored 10 points or less in 9 of their 12 games. Stanford had occasional blips of success over the years, but they're not a program terribly dissimilar to Vandy, if Vandy were able to land a player like Andrew Luck, I think you could certainly see them have a run like Stanford has had, I believe they've found the coach to transform that program so long as they can hold onto him.
You said it yourself, each division has its own strata and deservedly so. I'd describe it as a row of ladders side by side(I'm only going to use DII, FCS and FBS for the purposes of simplicity, but you could certainly extrapolate it out further) the DII ladder goes from zero to ten feet, next to it the FCS ladder goes from eight feet to seventeen feet, and next to that the FBS ladder goes from fifteen feet to twenty four feet. Now this doesn't necessarily mean the bottom of FBS is always at fifteen and the top of FCS is always at seventeen, those are just the relative floors and ceilings, its certainly possible that on a particularly strong year in FBS even the cellar dwellers managed to climb to 18 or in a particularly weak year in FCS no one managed to climb higher than 14, but on most years there is an overlap, but that doesn't change the fact that we're still on separate ladders and as long as you're on a particular ladder you can only climb or fall so far. That's why I don't believe in intermingling, we exist on different "ladders" with different circumstances. The problem with sagarin, rpi, et al. is that they put rankings into a one game vacuum and because within that one game vacuum Georgia Southern or App State might be better than any given Sun Belt school, myopic fans take these rankings and try to run with them. If Georgia Southern, App State or whomever(insert top tier FCS team) was able to play every team in the Sun Belt in a one game vacuum, with no games before, no games after, no injuries, etc. they very well might come out .500 maybe better in some years when the FCS team is particularly strong and it's a down year in the conference, but that's not how football works, and if App State or Georgia Southern or whomever were to play a full Sun Belt schedule, they'd be lucky to come out .500, no matter how strong they are or how weak the conference is.
I think you underestimate the ability of top FCS teams to compete in more than just a one game vacuum.
Remember, the FCS playoffs operate as a 1 and done. App played 15 games per year, 2005, 2006 and 2007. The hardest games always come at the very end of the season, when injuries and fatigue are at their highest. The 2007 App team that beat Deleware and Joe Flacco in the National Championship was 2x better than the 2007 team that beat Michigan in Sept. Shoot, against Michigan, our senior OC was out injured, and our starting Safety was suspended. We started a true freshmen center, 4 months out of high school.
Playing in the 1 and done playoffs, 15 games straight with 1 bye week, is much much harder than becoming bowl eligable 3 times in a row. Winning a National Championship 3 years in a row is nothing short of a amazing.
6-6 makes you Bowl eligable, and you get weeks, if not a month, to heal up.
And in each of those games, you're playing against teams with 63 predominantly FCS athletes, not 85 predominantly FBS athletes.
|
|