(05-29-2012 09:42 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote: (05-29-2012 08:52 AM)cuseroc Wrote: I believe that is the exact point that Neil is arguing. Since sos doesnt just take into account Dukes schedule, but also Dukes opponents schedule as well. If Duke plays a bunch of bcs schools (even if they lose those games) rather than fcs schools, their sos may not be as bad as a Big 12 team who makes a living feasting off of fcs teams and other sisters of the poor. Keep in mind that fcs teams play mostly other fcs teams and if a bcs team plays 2 fcs teams in a season, it could bring its sos down.
So let me see if I understand then... the argument is that Duke helps ACC SoS not because THEY are strong, but because their opponents are strong (hence each team that plays Duke benefits from the "opponents of my opponent" factor). Is that the gist of it?
Partly, but it goes beyond even that.
In this example, Duke's opponents won-loss record (taking out any FCS game wins or losses and minus their record against Duke) is one part of the equation.
The other part, in this example, is Duke's opponents' opponents won-loss record (taking out any FCS game wins or losses or the won-loss record against that particular opponent). So, if Duke plays UConn, Navy, Northwestern, and Notre Dame OOC, as they did one of those years above, they not only get the won-loss record of those teams (minus any FCS wins or losses and minus their record against Duke), they then also get the won-loss record of the other 11 opponents those 4 teams played during the year (minus the win or the loss those opponents-opponents had against Duke's opponent).
I know it gets confusing but yes, it would obviously help if Duke or whoever is having a bad season in a conference won between 3-4 games minimum, but that doesn't always happen. So, the next best thing if you are going winless or only having 1 or 2 wins is hoping your OOC opponents go on to have a decent record.
So if your conference is full of average to less than average football teams and SOS becomes a component of the new playoff format, the conference will want those teams playing teams in other power conferences or independents who schedule well (like ND or Navy, but definitely not Army). MAC and C-USA opponents don't really do it anymore.
It's why the Pac will probably do well in the new playoff format (again IF SOS is to be a determining factor) because they play 9 conference games and will have a 10th game against the BiG. Half of the Pac teams now do not play any FCS teams as it is.
Cheers,
Neil