If only they'd have beaten USF. We might consider ourselves pretty safely in at a 9 seed right now. Bummer.

(02-27-2012 10:37 AM)Bearcat2012 Wrote:  Lunadari's Monday the 27th update still has UC a a 10 seed and South Florida is the first team out .

Other Big East Teams in but sweating it out...

10 UConn
11 Seton Hall
12 West Virginia

A win against Marquette Wednesday should seal the deal

West Virginia?

>>>The highest rated team left out/since last major change in RPI formula '05
#21 Missouri St
#30 Hofstra (2006)
#30 Air Force (2007)
... among the big six: #40 Cincinnati (2006).

The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids since '05:
#63 NC State (2005)
#63 Stanford (2007).

The highest rated team ever left out/'94-'04 tournaments
#33 Oklahoma (1994).

The lowest rated teams to get at-large bids '94-'04
#74 New Mexico (1999)
#70 Air Force (2004).

Read more: http://www.espn1530.com/pages/lancesBlog...z1nbAJf1pr
<<<<<<<

I know RPI isnt everything , but as long as we are still sitting in the 70's I'll be nervous. The committee will have an opportunity to put the screws to us. Worst RPI to make the tourney in the last 18 years was #74 New Mexico (1999) and the worst since they changed the RPI formula in '05 , a couple of #63's

so basically we have to either beat marquette or make a deep run into the BET....

well, nobody to blame but ourselves

(02-27-2012 11:18 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  so basically we have to either beat marquette or make a deep run into the BET....

well, nobody to blame but ourselves

Uh, no.

(02-27-2012 11:33 AM)subflea Wrote:  

(02-27-2012 11:18 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  so basically we have to either beat marquette or make a deep run into the BET....

well, nobody to blame but ourselves

Uh, no.

?

Just about every bubble team lost this weekend. We lost little to no ground by losing to South Florida on the road.

If the Bearcats get two more wins (either in the regular season or the Big East tournament), they are a lead pipe cinch to be selected. Take a look at the other teams on the bubble, and you will see the bubble is as bad or worse than it has ever been.

(02-27-2012 11:18 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  so basically we have to either beat marquette or make a deep run into the BET....

well, nobody to blame but ourselves

I disagree with this and I completely agree with Bruce's analysis.

Two wins needed, doesn't matter where. Beat Marq and lose at Nova, we're in the same spot as we are right now. Lose to Marq and beat Nova, same thing. Beat both, BET becomes irrelevant. Lose to both, a run in the BET is required. JMO.

The path of least resistance would indicate a win against Nova and a win against our first opponent in NYC. But as a fan, I hope we're not sweating it out that long.

If Cincinnati splits the last 2 they will get in barring a bad loss in the Big East tournament (which will be unlikely with a bye). Bubble teams are falling left and right, and Cincinnati has enough good wins and a better resume than all of the last 4 in/first 4 out teams.

(02-27-2012 12:03 PM)Bearcat_Bounce Wrote:  Bubble teams are falling left and right

Very good point IMO. Anecdotally speaking, I seem to remember bubble teams being much more competitive at this point in the season in the last few years than they are this year. Seems like a lot are playing themselves out instead of the other way around.

good...hope you guys are right!

Lowest RPI team ever to make the tournament is New Mexico at 74 several years ago. The Bearcats are sitting at 77 right now (or last I checked this morning). I am convinced they'll need two wins to make it and even two wins won't have me feeling great. Because of how horrendous the non-conference schedule was the Bearcats are a really weird case. The wins scream tournament team, as would an 11-7 Big East record. If we only get two wins and still make the tournament we will have an historically low RPI for getting in. I think 2 wins does it, don't get me wrong, but I am scared to put it in the committee's hands at that point. Win this next two get one or two in the Big East tournament and then I can get a little sleep before selection sunday.

(02-27-2012 12:35 PM)Jchuges7 Wrote:  

(02-27-2012 12:19 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Lowest RPI team ever to make the tournament is New Mexico at 74 several years ago. The Bearcats are sitting at 77 right now (or last I checked this morning). I am convinced they'll need two wins to make it and even two wins won't have me feeling great. Because of how horrendous the non-conference schedule was the Bearcats are a really weird case. The wins scream tournament team, as would an 11-7 Big East record. If we only get two wins and still make the tournament we will have an historically low RPI for getting in. I think 2 wins does it, don't get me wrong, but I am scared to put it in the committee's hands at that point. Win this next two get one or two in the Big East tournament and then I can get a little sleep before selection sunday.

I'm a little more concerned than maybe I should be, but I think the Bearcats need to be a complete no doubt, slam dunk to get in. I do think they'll take care of business to leave no doubt, but Bobinski running the show really has me concerned. Spare me the professionalism and common courtesy junk, he will not give UC any breathing room if at all possible in the wake of the brawl. Had that not happened, I wouldn't be as concerned. But again, I don't think that will end up needing to be a factor as I think UC can put together 2 or 3 wins in the next week to seal their fate.

If Cincinnati doesn't get in it will be because they had a horrible OOC and OOC RPI. Not because some guy from Xavier is on the committee.

(02-27-2012 12:38 PM)Bearcat_Bounce Wrote:  

(02-27-2012 12:35 PM)Jchuges7 Wrote:  

(02-27-2012 12:19 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Lowest RPI team ever to make the tournament is New Mexico at 74 several years ago. The Bearcats are sitting at 77 right now (or last I checked this morning). I am convinced they'll need two wins to make it and even two wins won't have me feeling great. Because of how horrendous the non-conference schedule was the Bearcats are a really weird case. The wins scream tournament team, as would an 11-7 Big East record. If we only get two wins and still make the tournament we will have an historically low RPI for getting in. I think 2 wins does it, don't get me wrong, but I am scared to put it in the committee's hands at that point. Win this next two get one or two in the Big East tournament and then I can get a little sleep before selection sunday.

I'm a little more concerned than maybe I should be, but I think the Bearcats need to be a complete no doubt, slam dunk to get in. I do think they'll take care of business to leave no doubt, but Bobinski running the show really has me concerned. Spare me the professionalism and common courtesy junk, he will not give UC any breathing room if at all possible in the wake of the brawl. Had that not happened, I wouldn't be as concerned. But again, I don't think that will end up needing to be a factor as I think UC can put together 2 or 3 wins in the next week to seal their fate.

If Cincinnati doesn't get in it will be because they had a horrible OOC and OOC RPI. Not because some guy from Xavier is on the committee.

yup...and add to that a loss to Rutgers which was inexcusable and a home loss to SJU...

(02-27-2012 12:19 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Lowest RPI team ever to make the tournament is New Mexico at 74 several years ago. The Bearcats are sitting at 77 right now (or last I checked this morning). I am convinced they'll need two wins to make it and even two wins won't have me feeling great. Because of how horrendous the non-conference schedule was the Bearcats are a really weird case. The wins scream tournament team, as would an 11-7 Big East record. If we only get two wins and still make the tournament we will have an historically low RPI for getting in. I think 2 wins does it, don't get me wrong, but I am scared to put it in the committee's hands at that point. Win this next two get one or two in the Big East tournament and then I can get a little sleep before selection sunday.

Mark: in theory, where do you think a win over a Nova along with a win in our first BET game would put us in the RPI? I know it's impossible to know for sure with all the moving parts, I'm just asking for a guess. Would that maybe put us in the high-60s if the BET opponent is, say, Pitt?

(02-27-2012 01:05 PM)CD11 Wrote:  

(02-27-2012 12:19 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Lowest RPI team ever to make the tournament is New Mexico at 74 several years ago. The Bearcats are sitting at 77 right now (or last I checked this morning). I am convinced they'll need two wins to make it and even two wins won't have me feeling great. Because of how horrendous the non-conference schedule was the Bearcats are a really weird case. The wins scream tournament team, as would an 11-7 Big East record. If we only get two wins and still make the tournament we will have an historically low RPI for getting in. I think 2 wins does it, don't get me wrong, but I am scared to put it in the committee's hands at that point. Win this next two get one or two in the Big East tournament and then I can get a little sleep before selection sunday.

Mark: in theory, where do you think a win over a Nova along with a win in our first BET game would put us in the RPI? I know it's impossible to know for sure with all the moving parts, I'm just asking for a guess. Would that maybe put us in the high-60s if the BET opponent is, say, Pitt?

I'd say in the mid 60s to mid 70s would be the range. Only 2 teams in NCAA history got in with that RPI range. Those teams are New Mexico and Air Force (who criminally got in with 0 RPI top 50 wins and an RPI of 70 the same year the Bearcats became the highest rated BCS team in the RPI to be left out since the RPI formula changed)... (If i remember USC was low 60s last year and they are the next closest). I think two wins would get us in, but with those numbers I'd be sweating it out.

UC has a chance after this year to be the lowest rated BCS team to be put in since the RPI formula change, and they already own the distinction of highest rated RPI BCS team to be left out,.

(02-27-2012 12:03 PM)CD11 Wrote:  

(02-27-2012 11:18 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  so basically we have to either beat marquette or make a deep run into the BET....

well, nobody to blame but ourselves

I disagree with this and I completely agree with Bruce's analysis.

Two wins needed, doesn't matter where. Beat Marq and lose at Nova, we're in the same spot as we are right now. Lose to Marq and beat Nova, same thing. Beat both, BET becomes irrelevant. Lose to both, a run in the BET is required. JMO.

The path of least resistance would indicate a win against Nova and a win against our first opponent in NYC. But as a fan, I hope we're not sweating it out that long.

If they beat Marquette they are in.

Marquette moves up to #7 in the polls ...yep that will look real pretty on the resume.

(02-27-2012 01:05 PM)CD11 Wrote:  

(02-27-2012 12:19 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Lowest RPI team ever to make the tournament is New Mexico at 74 several years ago. The Bearcats are sitting at 77 right now (or last I checked this morning). I am convinced they'll need two wins to make it and even two wins won't have me feeling great. Because of how horrendous the non-conference schedule was the Bearcats are a really weird case. The wins scream tournament team, as would an 11-7 Big East record. If we only get two wins and still make the tournament we will have an historically low RPI for getting in. I think 2 wins does it, don't get me wrong, but I am scared to put it in the committee's hands at that point. Win this next two get one or two in the Big East tournament and then I can get a little sleep before selection sunday.

Mark: in theory, where do you think a win over a Nova along with a win in our first BET game would put us in the RPI? I know it's impossible to know for sure with all the moving parts, I'm just asking for a guess. Would that maybe put us in the high-60s if the BET opponent is, say, Pitt?

A record of 21-10 in the regular season (lost to Marq, win over Nova) and a 1-1 BET record would have the RPI at 77. You can check all the scenarios here: http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Cincinnati.html

UC needs to beat Marquette or beat Nova plus one more at MSG. There are two problems with looking at the RPI from past seasons. One the RPI formula changed a few years ago and the amount of at-large bids went up. UC's RPI under the old formula is 71 and the current in conference RPI is 32.

Win the last two and UC is in the field with room to spare. Heck just winning two more anywhere make them a lock, including losing the last two conference while winning two in New York.