Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

      
Post Reply 
ESPN’s Lunardi's NCAA Seeding Projections (thread name changed)
Author Message
Bookmark and Share
bearcatfan Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 19,516
Joined: Jun 2004
Reputation: 192
I Root For: The Bearcats!
Location:
Post: #41
RE: ESPN’s Lunardi still has UC as No. 12 seed
I'm preparing as if UC will be NIT bound - that will lessen the disappointment if (when) it happens. I just hope if UC is in the NIT that Eggzavier is there too - it's a double hurt when they are in the NCAA and UC isn't.
 
02-27-2012 02:41 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
bearcatmark Online
Moderator
*

Posts: 30,728
Joined: Dec 2006
Reputation: 800
I Root For: the Deliverator
Location:
Post: #42
RE: ESPN’s Lunardi still has UC as No. 12 seed
(02-27-2012 02:25 PM)bearcatlawjd Wrote:  UC needs to beat Marquette or beat Nova plus one more at MSG. There are two problems with looking at the RPI from past seasons. One the RPI formula changed a few years ago and the amount of at-large bids went up. UC's RPI under the old formula is 71 and the current in conference RPI is 32.

Win the last two and UC is in the field with room to spare. Heck just winning two more anywhere make them a lock, including losing the last two conference while winning two in New York.

I think the RPI changed in 2004. There is still a bunch of data one who has gotten since then. The expansion point is fair as we have added 3 more at large teams, but only 2 teams have gotten in with an RPI in the 70s. I like your confidence, but I won't be surprised if we win 2 and are NIT bound (though I do think 2 gets us in). I will be mildly surprised if 1 win gets us in and I'll be shocked if we get in without another win.

BTW since they changed the RPI formula no team lower than 65 in the RPI has earned a bid.
 
(This post was last modified: 02-27-2012 03:03 PM by bearcatmark.)
02-27-2012 03:02 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
bearcatlawjd Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,590
Joined: Mar 2009
Reputation: 94
I Root For: UC
Location:
Post: #43
RE: ESPN’s Lunardi still has UC as No. 12 seed
(02-27-2012 03:02 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  
(02-27-2012 02:25 PM)bearcatlawjd Wrote:  UC needs to beat Marquette or beat Nova plus one more at MSG. There are two problems with looking at the RPI from past seasons. One the RPI formula changed a few years ago and the amount of at-large bids went up. UC's RPI under the old formula is 71 and the current in conference RPI is 32.

Win the last two and UC is in the field with room to spare. Heck just winning two more anywhere make them a lock, including losing the last two conference while winning two in New York.

I think the RPI changed in 2004. There is still a bunch of data one who has gotten since then. The expansion point is fair as we have added 3 more at large teams, but only 2 teams have gotten in with an RPI in the 70s. I like your confidence, but I won't be surprised if we win 2 and are NIT bound (though I do think 2 gets us in). I will be mildly surprised if 1 win gets us in and I'll be shocked if we get in without another win.

BTW since they changed the RPI formula no team lower than 65 in the RPI has earned a bid.

The only reason I have confidence now than I did two weeks ago was that I started to look at other bubble teams and realize they have a lot of red flags as well. Miami Florida, Northwestern, Texas, WVU, Seton Hall, Xavier, Arizona, UConn, St. Louis, Southern Miss, are just host of teams Lunardi has in the field that I feel UC looks pretty good against.

The best thing the Bearcats have going for them is big wins because most teams have done nothing against Top 50 level teams. A winning conference helps as well.

Norhtwestern for me should be on the NIT bubble, probably will end up as low seed in that tournament because they will probably lose to Ohio State and Iowa.
 
02-27-2012 03:15 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
bearcatmark Online
Moderator
*

Posts: 30,728
Joined: Dec 2006
Reputation: 800
I Root For: the Deliverator
Location:
Post: #44
RE: ESPN’s Lunardi still has UC as No. 12 seed
I understand what you are saying, but UC has some big red flags too. They do not have a ton of top 100 wins. They built a large percentage of their wins on sub 250 teams. They have some bad losses, the Presbyterian one really sticks out. Lastly, for a team on the bubble to get in with UC's non-conference SOS and low RPI rating would be absolutely unprecedented.

I'm not saying it will not happen, because you cannot evaluate UC without looking at their Big wins, of which they are if not the strongest among bubble teams one of the strongest. They are going to finish with a winning record in the Big East, likely 11, hopefully 12 wins (if they get to 12 I think they make it). They also have a respectable road record.

Basically UC's resume is all over the place but the number of times the committee has greatly penalized teams for non-conference SOS has me incredibly worried unless UC gets 2 wins... And personally I won't sleep well without 3.
 
02-27-2012 03:23 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
WarningSigns Offline
Special Teams
*

Posts: 904
Joined: Nov 2008
Reputation: 13
I Root For: Cincinnati
Location:
Post: #45
RE: ESPN’s Lunardi still has UC as No. 12 seed
This has been a strange season.
 
02-27-2012 04:00 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
bearcatlawjd Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,590
Joined: Mar 2009
Reputation: 94
I Root For: UC
Location:
Post: #46
RE: ESPN’s Lunardi still has UC as No. 12 seed
A lot of talk about needing one win, two wins, or three wins is going to be moot in less than two weeks. Once we get to selection Sunday, most of us will have a pretty good idea where UC headed. Honestly, the NIT wouldn't be the worst thing is the world. The program has won twenty game and secured a winning Big East record. The only thing that needs to happen is a better non-conference schedule so can avoid the debate we are having this year.

UC basketball looks like an upper tier Big East program for near future. Losing WVU, Syracuse, and Pitt will only help UC become a conference leader.
 
02-27-2012 05:03 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
BearcatOtto Offline
Special Teams
*

Posts: 681
Joined: May 2005
Reputation: 3
I Root For:
Location:
Post: #47
RE: ESPN’s Lunardi still has UC as No. 12 seed
(02-27-2012 02:41 PM)bearcatfan Wrote:  I'm preparing as if UC will be NIT bound - that will lessen the disappointment if (when) it happens. I just hope if UC is in the NIT that Eggzavier is there too - it's a double hurt when they are in the NCAA and UC isn't.

Do you say " do you want fries with that" ?

I was going to get into the management program, but I decide against it. That way, if it doesn't happen, you won't be so disappointed.

What a piss poor attitude.
 
02-27-2012 06:02 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
HattoriHanzo Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 214
Joined: Feb 2010
Reputation: 21
I Root For: Cincinnati
Location:
Post: #48
RE: ESPN’s Lunardi still has UC as No. 12 seed
"You see, I've found if you have a goal, you might not reach it. But if you don't have any goals, then you're never disappointed...and I gotta tell you, it feels phenomenal."
-Peter LaFleur, Dodgeball
 
02-27-2012 06:25 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
HattoriHanzo Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 214
Joined: Feb 2010
Reputation: 21
I Root For: Cincinnati
Location:
Post: #49
RE: ESPN’s Lunardi still has UC as No. 12 seed
For the record, I understand what Bearcatfan is saying - it's the same reason people get freaked out about flying although statistically it's safer than driving. It's the lack of individual control in being a fan of a program. We have no choice in the matter but to sit and watch passively as the team decides their own fate, taking us along for the ride. So while we want an NCAA berth, there's nothing we can do to make it so (other than show up and scream like hell on wednesday).

Last week had to have been a net plus, give the committee probably A) watched the UL game since it was on nationally; and B) more than likely just saw the score of the SFla game...another very close loss, as 7 of the 9 have been.
 
02-27-2012 06:30 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
BeerCat Offline
Terminally Chill
*

Posts: 8,109
Joined: Nov 2008
Reputation: 99
I Root For: Who's playin uk
Location: The Drunken Clam
Post: #50
RE: ESPN’s Lunardi still has UC as No. 12 seed
Again on ESPN they discussed the bubble BE teams with Bilas and using Lunardi's info, neither of those two sources even mentioned UC as a bubble team. It seems to me that people on this board are taking that as if the Bearcats don't have a shot but the talking heads are treating them as if they are a lock as of today.

I really think 1 of the next 3 games does it for us.
 
02-27-2012 06:52 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Bearcat_Bounce Offline
God Like Summoner

Posts: 6,467
Joined: Mar 2011
I Root For: Winners
Location: Under a Bridge
Post: #51
RE: ESPN’s Lunardi still has UC as No. 12 seed
I can understand why some people are kind of paranoid, it is natural, but some reasoning makes no sense...
 
02-27-2012 06:55 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
WarningSigns Offline
Special Teams
*

Posts: 904
Joined: Nov 2008
Reputation: 13
I Root For: Cincinnati
Location:
Post: #52
RE: ESPN’s Lunardi still has UC as No. 12 seed
The talking heads all seem much more confident than anyone here does. When you look at the other bubble teams its not that hard to believe.
 
02-27-2012 07:12 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
mptnstr@44 Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 11,047
Joined: Aug 2011
Reputation: 427
I Root For: Nati Bearcats
Location:
Post: #53
RE: ESPN’s Lunardi still has UC as No. 12 seed
I think the RPI has people more worried than anything. It's the only really bad stat we have aside from SOS which feeds into the RPI. It gives the committee a reason to leave the Bearcats out if they want to and to be able to justify doing so.

That and the Bearcats have been screwed by the committee before. They have never been given the deference that some teams get...MSU, Duke, UConn, etc.

See 2000 when kenyon broke his leg and UC had earned and therefore should've still received their 1 seed
Also AKs year (2003?) where they deserved to be in but were left out for Air Force.
And just about every year it seems we are seeded a bit lower than we should've been and sent to the West Coast.
 
02-27-2012 08:59 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
bearcatmark Online
Moderator
*

Posts: 30,728
Joined: Dec 2006
Reputation: 800
I Root For: the Deliverator
Location:
Post: #54
RE: ESPN’s Lunardi still has UC as No. 12 seed
See, other than the AK year and the Kmart year I always thought the committee was very fair to UC. Though the year we got the 1 seed, drawing that ridiculously talented UCLA team was a pain.

We had a few two seeds, hell the year we lost to Gonzaga I thought they could have left us out and they somehow gave us a 9 seed.
 
(This post was last modified: 02-27-2012 09:08 PM by bearcatmark.)
02-27-2012 09:07 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Bearcats#1 Offline
Ad nauseam King
*

Posts: 45,310
Joined: Jun 2005
Reputation: 1224
I Root For: Pony94
Location: In your head.
Post: #55
RE: ESPN’s Lunardi still has UC as No. 12 seed
Agree Bearcatmark....

I know we are all a little worried, esp after loss to USF but really, we still control our destiny....we beat marquette wed night and I will be feeling great.
 
02-27-2012 09:09 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
mptnstr@44 Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 11,047
Joined: Aug 2011
Reputation: 427
I Root For: Nati Bearcats
Location:
Post: #56
RE: ESPN’s Lunardi still has UC as No. 12 seed
I agree beat Marquette and I think we are in very very good shape.
I just worry that we have given the committee reason to leave us out if they want to with the RPI and SOS.

I believe a team should get in because they pass the good win test. Have they beaten teams like the teams that will be in the tournament?...and UC passes that test easily while other Bubble teams don't.
Too bad I'm not on the committee.
 
02-27-2012 09:15 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Bearcats#1 Offline
Ad nauseam King
*

Posts: 45,310
Joined: Jun 2005
Reputation: 1224
I Root For: Pony94
Location: In your head.
Post: #57
RE: ESPN’s Lunardi still has UC as No. 12 seed
we beat Marquette and I believe that puts us at 6-4 vs rpi top 50 and 5-3 vs Top 25

this cannot be ignored and a loss in nov to presby/marshall seem really insignificant at this point

if if if...we gotta beat marquette first
 
02-27-2012 09:17 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
50Cent Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 6,651
Joined: Mar 2004
Reputation: 37
I Root For: UC
Location:
Post: #58
RE: ESPN’s Lunardi still has UC as No. 12 seed
I don't want to finish 0-3 and that would make things very nervous selection Sunday. But let me ask you who are the teams that are going to take the 8-10 spot cushion UC probably has right now.

UC has good wins. Good record against top 50 which is pretty much tourney teams. Very good road record including big road wins.

Still comes down to who would pass UC. Usf? Congrats you won Sunday. Now still who have they beat? Much less on road? And they had easy mirror games. Lot of bubble teams are still gonna lose 2 more games at least.
 
02-27-2012 11:17 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
natibeast21 Offline
Banned

Posts: 2,481
Joined: Nov 2010
I Root For: UC, Ohio State
Location: Independent Thought
Post: #59
RE: ESPN’s Lunardi still has UC as No. 12 seed
I also think they should look at our losses in that other than Marquette we never loss badly. We could have won every game. Forgot about Xavier but that was at their place also
 
02-27-2012 11:28 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Bearcat2012 Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,408
Joined: Sep 2011
Reputation: 70
I Root For: Cincy Bearcats
Location:
Post: #60
RE: ESPN’s Lunardi still has UC as No. 12 seed
2/28/12 :

SI: UC 11-seed

The Sporting News: UC 10-seed

Jerry Palm/ CBS : UC 12-seed

Lunardi ESPN : UC 10 seed
 
02-28-2012 02:15 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2024 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2024 MyBB Group.