Iowa Caucus is tomorrow, figured we could offer up some predictions.

My prediction:

1. Romney
2. Santorum
3. Paul

Couple of reasons:

Romney has the front runner momentum and Paul has faded. I think the media exposure he got when he was leading in Iowa actually hurt him. Paul does well as a spoiler/fun candidate. He doesn't play as a front runner. I think a decent bit of the conservative vote is going rally around Santorum. He has lived in Iowa for over a year and I think he'll be rewarded for that work. It will mainly be the conservatives that don't like Romney but won't vote Paul either.

I also think the perceived slide for Paul and the fact that Romney appears to be ahead will hurt him as well. The democrats that would have come out for Paul may just sit it out. Also there is no snow expected tomorrow, just very cold. Snow would have pushed Paul over the line I think because his support is the most fervent. But since there will be no weather issues I think that's neutralized.

I will say that this could go any number of ways. But since we're a day out gotta settle on something.

1. Santorum
2. Paul
3. Gingrich
3. Romney

I say the Bachmann supporters will tilt to Santorum putting him over the top. Paul will remain steady and pick up second. Gingrich and Romney will be close enough (+/- 0.5%) to call it a tie.

1. Paul
2. Romney
3. Santorum

***********

Bachmann and Perry announce the end of their candidacies by Friday.

Santorum got out to every county in an attempt to rally every ultra right wing bible thumper he could to caucus for him. Good job IMO. Only in caucus states can you accomplish this. Remember Huck did the same thing.

(01-02-2012 11:40 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  1. Paul
2. Romney
3. Santorum

***********

Bachmann and Perry announce the end of their candidacies by Friday.

Agree.

My prediction is that if Paul wins, Iowa is said to be a joke and won't really count for anything. If Santorum wins, nobody says Iowa is a joke and it's legit and huge for him and his campaign. Anyone else think that is beyond ridiculous? With that said, I think that scenario won't matter....

Prediction

Romney
Paul
Santorum

Just listened to leading Iowa Republican who says either Paul or Santorum, he's thinking Paul, but saying it will be real close between these two.

(01-02-2012 11:40 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  1. Paul
2. Romney
3. Santorum

***********

Bachmann and Perry announce the end of their candidacies by Friday.

Perry still has a reasonable amount of cash to spend. He could take the Fred Thompson spoiler role in SC peeling enough votes away from Gingrich to give Romney the SC win and likely wrap up the nomination by February. SC is must win for Gingrich a second place for Perry in SC and he'll stay for a while along with RP but without SC win Gingrich is done so will everyone but RP and maybe Perry. Santorum doesn't have the money to compete even with Iowa first or second.

#1: Paul 30%
#2: Santorum 19%
#3: Romney 18%

Paul by bigger margin than any poll has shown.

(01-02-2012 05:28 PM)Dak10 Wrote:  Paul by bigger margin than any poll has shown.

I am hoping that the organization of the good doctor is going to show tomorrow. I am hoping he is going to shock the sh!t out of everyone...but...I am not going to hold my breath. All you need to know is that in NH..one of the most Libertarian like states...he can not make his message resonate. It baffled me in 08 and still does. I guess it is all the Massholes in NH?

The weather looks very nice across Iowa tomorrow, so that won't be a factor. IA has always been a place that favors quirky candidates, so my guess is that Paul wins, Romney second, and Santorum third. That's just a guess though because caucuses are difficult to predict in a normal election year, but this year is especially difficult given the quick rise and fall of numerous candidates.

(01-02-2012 07:45 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(01-02-2012 05:28 PM)Dak10 Wrote:  Paul by bigger margin than any poll has shown.

I am hoping that the organization of the good doctor is going to show tomorrow. I am hoping he is going to shock the sh!t out of everyone...but...I am not going to hold my breath. All you need to know is that in NH..one of the most Libertarian like states...he can not make his message resonate. It baffled me in 08 and still does. I guess it is all the Massholes in NH?

I can't speak for NH, but my in-laws don't like Paul b/c he's can come across as insulting. Paul needs to learn tact. Not change his positions, but present them more tactfully.

Paul 26%
Santorum 23%
Romney 21%

Paul will outperform his poll numbers because Dems and independents will caucus for him. Santorum's evangelicals will have a higher turnout than Romneyites. Fox News is in full meltdown mode. I watched the O'Reilly Factor last night and BillO repeated "Paul cannot win" slowly 3 times in the opening segment and I went back to watching the bowl games. Then I switched back for that Greta lady and Dick Morris kept saying "I hope crazy Mr. Paul doesn't win, he has no chance against Obama (but somehow Santorum does?), please Iowans I'm begging you!" and I just had to laugh. I'll be glued to Fox Noise tomorrow and I hope to see at least a few neocon heads explode.

(01-03-2012 10:10 AM)DrTorch Wrote:  

(01-02-2012 07:45 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(01-02-2012 05:28 PM)Dak10 Wrote:  Paul by bigger margin than any poll has shown.

I am hoping that the organization of the good doctor is going to show tomorrow. I am hoping he is going to shock the sh!t out of everyone...but...I am not going to hold my breath. All you need to know is that in NH..one of the most Libertarian like states...he can not make his message resonate. It baffled me in 08 and still does. I guess it is all the Massholes in NH?

I can't speak for NH, but my in-laws don't like Paul b/c he's can come across as insulting. Paul needs to learn tact. Not change his positions, but present them more tactfully.

Could be. The NH thing still is surprising to me. You would think that he would do very well there with as many liberty advocates as there are in NH. I guess there is another dynamic that I do not get.

(01-03-2012 10:13 AM)Max Power Wrote:  Paul 26%
Santorum 23%
Romney 21%

Paul will outperform his poll numbers because Dems and independents will caucus for him. Santorum's evangelicals will have a higher turnout than Romneyites. Fox News is in full meltdown mode. I watched the O'Reilly Factor last night and BillO repeated "Paul cannot win" slowly 3 times in the opening segment and I went back to watching the bowl games. Then I switched back for that Greta lady and Dick Morris kept saying "I hope crazy Mr. Paul doesn't win, he has no chance against Obama (but somehow Santorum does?), please Iowans I'm begging you!" and I just had to laugh. I'll be glued to Fox Noise tomorrow and I hope to see at least a few neocon heads explode.

Paul can't and won't win the nomination. This is a certainty on every level. Iowa is not a cross section of America. The way it votes and who votes in it make it so.

Romney has NH locked up. As Fo mentioned he's not doing well there but, given his politics, he ought to be. Paul isn't even in double digits in SC. Same in Florida. If he can't crack double digits in Florida, with all the publicity he's received, he won't win in any winner take all state.

Iowa is unique which is why he has a shot to win that state. It won't extend past there. It's the simple reality of the situation. The only thing people may be worried is about is Paul in a 3rd party bid or that they might have to give him a spot to speak at the convention.

Ron Paul may win Iowa. He will not win any other state.

Paul certainly has a chance at the nomination. Winning Iowa and New Hampshire is very plausible, and wins in the first two states open a credible path for anyone.

The latest polls in New Hampshire show Romney leading Paul by 20+ points, and everyone else well behind Paul. NH is very libertarian ("Live Free or Die") and naturally amenable to Paul's message (as are many western states). I think once you get over the hump of "you're just wasting your vote with that guy," he makes a big jump. If he wins Iowa and Romney comes in, say, 3rd, Paul will immmediately jump to within single digits of Romney in NH. Then a lot will depend on how this week plays out.

(01-03-2012 01:42 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Paul certainly has a chance at the nomination. Winning Iowa and New Hampshire is very plausible, and wins in the first two states open a credible path for anyone.

He won't win NH. He has no chance. Paul's foreign policy views do not resonate with the majority of Republican voters.

He has no shot. Period.

His economic views arguably resonate more than any other.

I think his foreign policy views resonate more than given credit for. Even though Fox News, the Wall Street Journal, etc advocate excusively for the neocon viewpoint, I don't know too many GOPers who are big neocons here in central Illinois. Maybe in Washington and New York neoconservatism is big but in the Midwest and west GOPers care less about foreign policy and might even lean doveish. Something like 75% of Americans want out of Afghanistan right now. Maybe Paul's stance of closing all foreign military bases is extreme but the calls for war with Iran are extreme to some too. JMO.

(01-03-2012 01:57 PM)Ninerfan1 Wrote:  

(01-03-2012 01:42 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Paul certainly has a chance at the nomination. Winning Iowa and New Hampshire is very plausible, and wins in the first two states open a credible path for anyone.

He won't win NH. He has no chance. Paul's foreign policy views do not resonate with the majority of Republican voters.

He has no shot. Period.

He will resonate with the "live free or die" crowd. How many of them turn out, indeed how many of them there are, will tell the tale.