TCU brings one thing none of the others bring - BCS insurance. The Big East is coming off a great 5-year run. But this year we are falling off the map, and from the looks of it, there's no telling when we might return. TCU's BCS numbers would most likely fix that.

(11-01-2010 11:52 AM)Capital Pirate Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 11:46 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  I see clear advantages with them over ECU.

Correction - you see "potential"...none of the so-called expansion "candidates" bring ANYTHING tangible to ANY new conference right now besides POTENTIAL - not TCU, not Houston, not Villanova, not anyone.....any "advantages" are simply perceived at this point, because in almost all the cases, you're talking about things that do not yet exist......

We all can sleep better at night knowing that not one person who posts on any message board will have any say in any possible expansion.....God help us if that weren't the case.

Some of the other CUSA wannabees perhaps. Don't think you'd find many if any around the country that would pretend a TCU doesn't bring more to the table than ECU--you are talking of a top ten program often in the BCS and even national title hunt compared to a consistently unranked program that hasn't ever sniffed a BCS bowl. A major stretch at best to say the potential is the same.

(11-01-2010 11:43 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 11:36 AM)saxamoophone Wrote:  UCF & USF may very well pass Miami, and be on par with FSU in the next few years (FSU is not the same school they were 10 years ago). And given how fast FSU has dropped off, Florida has to work pretty hard to keep the seperation from the rest of the state.

Now, now - as the Wolf said in Pulp Fiction, "Let's not start sucking each other d***s right now." Reasonably speaking, Miami and Florida State have inherent advantages that aren't going to go away even if they have relatively down seasons. College football power moves at a glacial pace - you get different surprise temporary upstarts every year, but moving tiers for the long-term is a very slow process. If you look at history, college football's current hierarchy was basically formed in the decade after World War II and has barely changed in the last 60 years - the powers that rose up then are still largely the powers in college football today.

I think Miami has a serious chance of never being elite again. They'll be good for 7-8 wins a year but they won't be what they once were w/ Shalala as their President. UCF and USF being public universities will capitalize and the power may shift especially if both are in a BCS conference and turn it into a big rivalry along the I4 Corridor that has maybe 3-4 million people? UF and FSU will always have the resources to be top programs b/c of dedicated fanbases and much more revenue but everyone shouldn't assume Miami will eventually be 'back'.

(11-01-2010 11:46 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 11:25 AM)Brick City Pirate Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 11:15 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 11:09 AM)Raleighwood Pirate Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 08:57 AM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  Even though I love to loathe ECU, they are a much better candidate than Villanova/Temple. ECU, despite their small market, draws well and they televise well. If given a BCS opportunity, they'd instantly eclipse Wake and Duke (for football anyway) in NC and be on par with NC State. Plus their football is, you know, good...unlike Temple and Villanova (in terms of having to move up for them). Philly isn't a college town for football and Temple/Nova aren't going to change that. Better to take what ECU gets you in Raleigh and the Tidewater (which is at least something since MASN picks up their games).

We have eclipsed Duke and Wake a long time ago. We are the #3 team in NC.

So, how does it help the Big East to have the #3 football program in a state with a population of 9 million?

And let's not forget that ECU isn't even #5 in NC in basketball.

Do the math. UCF would be the #5 football program in Florida. Memphis would be #2 or #3 football program in Tennessee. If you divide those schools by their state's population they are about the same as ECU being #3 in North Carolina.

Why should I do the math on UCF & Memphis? I'm not a fan of adding either of those teams do the BE.

But even with your logic, UCF is a better candidate. Divide Florida's 18 million by 5 = 3.6 million, which is better than 3 million - especially since WF, Duke, & ASU provide stronger competition to ECU in NC than anyone after UCF would provide in Florida.

Add in the fact that ECU brings no benefit in terms of football recruiting the way that UCF does in Florida & the fact that UCF isn't automatically pushed as far back in basketball as ECU is in state & the fact that UCF is in a major metro area & ECU is not. Although I'm not a fan of adding UCF, I see clear advantages with them over ECU.

Just curious, Bill, but why would you divide Florida's 18 million by 5 and North Carolina's 9 million by 3? Wouldn't that inherently assume that each school has an equal size fanbase and commands an equal share of the market? That's just not the case.

You've said it before that stadiums are built to the size of the fanbase, or something to that effect. Taking that into consideration, as well as the attendance, would make your math more accurate.

I've done that before; prior to our stadium renovation. The numbers would be different today with ECU averaging close to 50,000 per game.

(11-01-2010 12:05 PM)buckaineer Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 11:52 AM)Capital Pirate Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 11:46 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  I see clear advantages with them over ECU.

Correction - you see "potential"...none of the so-called expansion "candidates" bring ANYTHING tangible to ANY new conference right now besides POTENTIAL - not TCU, not Houston, not Villanova, not anyone.....any "advantages" are simply perceived at this point, because in almost all the cases, you're talking about things that do not yet exist......

We all can sleep better at night knowing that not one person who posts on any message board will have any say in any possible expansion.....God help us if that weren't the case.

Some of the other CUSA wannabees perhaps. Don't think you'd find many if any around the country that would pretend a TCU doesn't bring more to the table than ECU--you are talking of a top ten program often in the BCS and even national title hunt compared to a consistently unranked program that hasn't ever sniffed a BCS bowl. A major stretch at best to say the potential is the same.

...but it is still all only POTENTIAL....the degrees of which can be construed in many different ways.....

Thanks for proving my point.....

(11-01-2010 11:36 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  To be fair, Duke is "special". They are to this generation for college sports what Notre Dame was for previous generations - the school that every single person in America has a very strong opinion about (whether good or bad). Duke is the one school that actually moves the meter so much in terms of basketball TV ratings that it overrides their putrid football program. They are right next to the Yankees, Lakers and Cowboys on America's Most Hated list.

Yeah, I can't stand Dook, but they have a hugely marketable brand name on the strength of men's hoops alone. They are one of the top five schools in licensed school apparel sold every year. Any non-AQ football program (and most of the AQ conference programs) would have to have a 25-year run of 10-win seasons, including several BCS bowl games, with a national title or two or three thrown in, in order to put their brand in the same ballpark as Dook.

(11-01-2010 12:05 PM)knightastic Wrote:  I think Miami has a serious chance of never being elite again. They'll be good for 7-8 wins a year but they won't be what they once were w/ Shalala as their President. UCF and USF being public universities will capitalize and the power may shift especially if both are in a BCS conference and turn it into a big rivalry along the I4 Corridor that has maybe 3-4 million people? UF and FSU will always have the resources to be top programs b/c of dedicated fanbases and much more revenue but everyone shouldn't assume Miami will eventually be 'back'.

I tend to agree.

Aight if its going to 10 i'd be happy with Houston and TCU and if Nova say yes we'll join then add ECU or Memphis and call it a day.

(11-01-2010 09:22 AM)Gray Avenger Wrote:  Memphis brings a top 50 TV market which it delivers, the tradition-rich Liberty Bowl, strong corporate support for the Big East network, nationally-recognized rivalries with Louisville and Cincinatti, is a logical extension of the Big East footprint and a great basketball program. Big East officials would be foolish to overlook all that UofM offers.

Here's the problem...UAB can say many of those things too. They bring a Top 40 TV market, the tradition-rich Legion Field, a bowl game the Big East already has a tie-in with, strong academics, they are a logical extension of the Big East footprint, and they bring a great basketball program that isn't on NCAA probation. They also seem to be making some attempts to replace their "tradition-rich" stadium, whereas Memphis is not.

Yet, no one here talks about UAB as a candidate. The only reason Memphis gets mentioned is due to their long term rivalries with Louisville and Cincinnati. That's unlikely to be enough to get Memphis an invite.

(11-01-2010 12:09 PM)Capital Pirate Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 12:05 PM)buckaineer Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 11:52 AM)Capital Pirate Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 11:46 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  I see clear advantages with them over ECU.

Correction - you see "potential"...none of the so-called expansion "candidates" bring ANYTHING tangible to ANY new conference right now besides POTENTIAL - not TCU, not Houston, not Villanova, not anyone.....any "advantages" are simply perceived at this point, because in almost all the cases, you're talking about things that do not yet exist......

We all can sleep better at night knowing that not one person who posts on any message board will have any say in any possible expansion.....God help us if that weren't the case.

Some of the other CUSA wannabees perhaps. Don't think you'd find many if any around the country that would pretend a TCU doesn't bring more to the table than ECU--you are talking of a top ten program often in the BCS and even national title hunt compared to a consistently unranked program that hasn't ever sniffed a BCS bowl. A major stretch at best to say the potential is the same.

...but it is still all only POTENTIAL....the degrees of which can be construed in many different ways.....

Thanks for proving my point.....

I didn't prove your point. I showed that you don't have one.

(11-01-2010 12:05 PM)knightastic Wrote:  everyone shouldn't assume Miami will eventually be 'back'.

Shouldn't assume Notre Dame will eventually be back on top, either.

For that matter, before U$C hired Pete Carroll, and before OU hired Bob Stoops, a lot of people didn't assume those teams would ever be back on top, either.

But when programs like that finally find The Right Guy, their upside is much greater than if the same guy was coaching at, say, Vanderbilt or Washington State or Georgia State or UTEP. It's not "fair", but it's true.

(11-01-2010 12:14 PM)BullsFanatic Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 09:22 AM)Gray Avenger Wrote:  Memphis brings a top 50 TV market which it delivers, the tradition-rich Liberty Bowl, strong corporate support for the Big East network, nationally-recognized rivalries with Louisville and Cincinatti, is a logical extension of the Big East footprint and a great basketball program. Big East officials would be foolish to overlook all that UofM offers.

Here's the problem...UAB can say many of those things too. They bring a Top 40 TV market, the tradition-rich Legion Field, a bowl game the Big East already has a tie-in with, strong academics, they are a logical extension of the Big East footprint, and they bring a great basketball program that isn't on NCAA probation. They also seem to be making some attempts to replace their "tradition-rich" stadium, whereas Memphis is not.

Yet, no one here talks about UAB as a candidate. The only reason Memphis gets mentioned is due to their long term rivalries with Louisville and Cincinnati. That's unlikely to be enough to get Memphis an invite.

Good points. I've brought up UAB previously and in fact in many ways they are a much better candidate than Memphis would be and in several ways better than many CUSA possibles.

(11-01-2010 11:43 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 11:36 AM)saxamoophone Wrote:  UCF & USF may very well pass Miami, and be on par with FSU in the next few years (FSU is not the same school they were 10 years ago). And given how fast FSU has dropped off, Florida has to work pretty hard to keep the seperation from the rest of the state.

Now, now - as the Wolf said in Pulp Fiction, "Let's not start sucking each other d***s right now." Reasonably speaking, Miami and Florida State have inherent advantages that aren't going to go away even if they have relatively down seasons. College football power moves at a glacial pace - you get different surprise temporary upstarts every year, but moving tiers for the long-term is a very slow process. If you look at history, college football's current hierarchy was basically formed in the decade after World War II and has barely changed in the last 60 years - the powers that rose up then are still largely the powers in college football today.

Certainly true in some cases, but are we still regarding Notre Dame, Michigan State, Maryland, Army, Rice, Georgia Tech, Kentucky, & Cal as major players in championship college football?

OTOH, national champions of the past decade like Alabama, Florida, USC, & Miami were not major players back in the post-war decade of 1945-54. They all emerged some time after that along with others who have been regulars in the rankings.

I think there's been more change than you're willing to acknowledge.

Looking at the front runners, you see two dynamics.

1. secure the current footprint. Philadelphia & central FL.

2. Grow the footprint by adding huge TV markets. Both Memphis and ECU represent expanding the footprint, but apparently they are looking for more bang for the buck.

(11-01-2010 12:17 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 12:05 PM)knightastic Wrote:  everyone shouldn't assume Miami will eventually be 'back'.

Shouldn't assume Notre Dame will eventually be back on top, either.

For that matter, before U$C hired Pete Carroll, and before OU hired Bob Stoops, a lot of people didn't assume those teams would ever be back on top, either.

But when programs like that finally find The Right Guy, their upside is much greater than if the same guy was coaching at, say, Vanderbilt or Washington State or Georgia State or UTEP. It's not "fair", but it's true.

OTOH, there ae once great powers who have never made it back. Minnesota, for example, was once a 5-time national champion. There simply are no guarantees.

(11-01-2010 12:12 PM)JunkYardCard Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 12:05 PM)knightastic Wrote:  I think Miami has a serious chance of never being elite again. They'll be good for 7-8 wins a year but they won't be what they once were w/ Shalala as their President. UCF and USF being public universities will capitalize and the power may shift especially if both are in a BCS conference and turn it into a big rivalry along the I4 Corridor that has maybe 3-4 million people? UF and FSU will always have the resources to be top programs b/c of dedicated fanbases and much more revenue but everyone shouldn't assume Miami will eventually be 'back'.

I tend to agree.

+1

(11-01-2010 12:23 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  I can only speak for me, but I hate UCF fans because they are a bunch of punks who do nothing but run their traps and until Saturday had never done a thing to back up their talking. I personally hate any group that think they deserve something they haven't earned.

I agree our on field performance isn't as great as ECUs, but we still managed:

East Conference Championship in 2005, 2007
Conference Championship in 2007
And Bowl Bound in 2005, 2007, 2009, 2010.

And I think going 6-2 and being ranked higher than almost all the Big East teams in every poll ain't too bad either
(although who knows how the season will end)

(11-01-2010 12:23 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  I can only speak for me, but I hate UCF fans because they are a bunch of punks who do nothing but run their traps and until Saturday had never done a thing to back up their talking. I personally hate any group that think they deserve something they haven't earned.

I agree our on field performance isn't as great as ECUs, but we still managed:

East Conference Championship in 2005, 2007
Conference Championship in 2007
And Bowl Bound in 2005, 2007, 2009, 2010.

And I think going 6-2 and being ranked higher than almost all the Big East teams in every poll ain't too bad either
(although who knows how the season will end)

(11-01-2010 12:17 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 12:05 PM)knightastic Wrote:  everyone shouldn't assume Miami will eventually be 'back'.

Shouldn't assume Notre Dame will eventually be back on top, either.

For that matter, before U$C hired Pete Carroll, and before OU hired Bob Stoops, a lot of people didn't assume those teams would ever be back on top, either.

But when programs like that finally find The Right Guy, their upside is much greater than if the same guy was coaching at, say, Vanderbilt or Washington State or Georgia State or UTEP. It's not "fair", but it's true.

OU a public university w/ a huge fanbase. USC has a much better fanbase than U of Miami, a stadium one block from campus, and way more high end donors than Miami b/c of so many big name people in the Entertainment industry that have given back to the program. In 2006 Miami got turned down by several coaches that didn't want anything to do w/ rebuilding that program, they know the challenges despite the talent pool

(11-01-2010 12:08 PM)piratefan1975 Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 11:46 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 11:25 AM)Brick City Pirate Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 11:15 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  

(11-01-2010 11:09 AM)Raleighwood Pirate Wrote:  We have eclipsed Duke and Wake a long time ago. We are the #3 team in NC.

So, how does it help the Big East to have the #3 football program in a state with a population of 9 million?

And let's not forget that ECU isn't even #5 in NC in basketball.

Do the math. UCF would be the #5 football program in Florida. Memphis would be #2 or #3 football program in Tennessee. If you divide those schools by their state's population they are about the same as ECU being #3 in North Carolina.

Why should I do the math on UCF & Memphis? I'm not a fan of adding either of those teams do the BE.

But even with your logic, UCF is a better candidate. Divide Florida's 18 million by 5 = 3.6 million, which is better than 3 million - especially since WF, Duke, & ASU provide stronger competition to ECU in NC than anyone after UCF would provide in Florida.

Add in the fact that ECU brings no benefit in terms of football recruiting the way that UCF does in Florida & the fact that UCF isn't automatically pushed as far back in basketball as ECU is in state & the fact that UCF is in a major metro area & ECU is not. Although I'm not a fan of adding UCF, I see clear advantages with them over ECU.

Just curious, Bill, but why would you divide Florida's 18 million by 5 and North Carolina's 9 million by 3? Wouldn't that inherently assume that each school has an equal size fanbase and commands an equal share of the market? That's just not the case.

You've said it before that stadiums are built to the size of the fanbase, or something to that effect. Taking that into consideration, as well as the attendance, would make your math more accurate.

I've done that before; prior to our stadium renovation. The numbers would be different today with ECU averaging close to 50,000 per game.

I divided FL by 5 because UCF was named as the #5 program in FL in the previous post & NC by 3 because ECU was named as #3 in NC in that same post. In reality I should have divided NC by 5 because that's how many BCS programs there are in the state.

I wasn't claiming that each school gets an even number of fans, but was just showing the proportions of each school in relation to the population of the state as the arena in which each school has to compete. My math was a "best case" scenario for ECU because I was giving the benefit of the doubt & ignoring WF & Duke. Even in this best case, ECU comes out behind UCF.