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IAF finalizing plans for Iranian airstrike.
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WoodlandsOwl Offline
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Post: #1
IAF finalizing plans for Iranian airstrike.
I don't think the Israelis will even notify the US that they are on their way because they will be coming south through Saudi Arabia-- avoiding Iraqi airspace and US AEW. The first indication will be from Navy ships in the Gulf picking up lots of planes flying east.

The Israeli military is preparing itself to launch a massive aerial assault on Iran's nuclear facilities within days of being given the go-ahead by its new government.

Among the steps taken to ready Israeli forces for what would be a risky raid requiring pinpoint aerial strikes are the acquisition of three Airborne Warning and Control (AWAC) aircraft and regional missions to simulate the attack.

Two nationwide civil defence drills will help to prepare the public for the retaliation that Israel could face.

“Israel wants to know that if its forces were given the green light they could strike at Iran in a matter of days, even hours. They are making preparations on every level for this eventuality. The message to Iran is that the threat is not just words,” one senior defence official told The Times.

Officials believe that Israel could be required to hit more than a dozen targets, including moving convoys. The sites include Natanz, where thousands of centrifuges produce enriched uranium; Esfahan, where 250 tonnes of gas is stored in tunnels; and Arak, where a heavy water reactor produces plutonium.

The distance from Israel to at least one of the sites is more than 870 miles, a distance that the Israeli force practised covering in a training exercise last year that involved F15 and F16 jets, helicopters and refuelling tankers.

The possible Israeli strike on Iran has drawn comparisons to its attack on the Osirak nuclear facility near Baghdad in 1981. That strike, which destroyed the facility in under 100 seconds, was completed without Israeli losses and checked Iraqi ambitions for a nuclear weapons programme.

“We would not make the threat [against Iran] without the force to back it. There has been a recent move, a number of on-the-ground preparations, that indicate Israel's willingness to act,” said another official from Israel's intelligence community.

He added that it was unlikely that Israel would carry out the attack without receiving at least tacit approval from America, which has struck a more reconciliatory tone in dealing with Iran under its new administration.

An Israeli attack on Iran would entail flying over Jordanian and Iraqi airspace, where US forces have a strong presence.

Ephraim Kam, the deputy director of the Institute for National Security Studies, said it was unlikely that the Americans would approve an attack.

“The American defence establishment is unsure that the operation will be successful. And the results of the operation would only delay Iran's programme by two to four years,” he said.

A visit by President Obama to Israel in June is expected to coincide with the national elections in Iran — timing that would allow the US Administration to re-evaluate diplomatic resolutions with Iran before hearing the Israeli position.

“Many of the leaks or statements made by Israeli leaders and military commanders are meant for deterrence. The message is that if [the international community] is unable to solve the problem they need to take into account that we will solve it our way,” Mr Kam said.

Among recent preparations by the airforce was the Israeli attack of a weapons convoy in Sudan bound for militants in the Gaza Strip.

“Sudan was practice for the Israeli forces on a long-range attack,” Ronen Bergman, the author of The Secret War with Iran, said. “They wanted to see how they handled the transfer of information, hitting a moving target ... In that sense it was a rehearsal.”

Israel has made public its intention to hold the largest-ever nationwide drill next month.

Colonel Hilik Sofer told Haaretz, a daily Israeli newspaper, that the drill would “train for a reality in which during war missiles can fall on any part of the country without warning ... We want the citizens to understand that war can happen tomorrow morning”.

Israel will conduct an exercise with US forces to test the ability of Arrow, its US-funded missile defence system. The exercise would test whether the system could intercept missiles launched at Israel.

“Israel has made it clear that it will not tolerate the threat of a nuclear Iran. According to Israeli Intelligence they will have the bomb within two years ... Once they have a bomb it will be too late, and Israel will have no choice to strike — with or without America,” an official from the Israeli Defence Ministry said.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/wo...115903.ece
04-18-2009 08:27 PM
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SumOfAllFears Offline
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Post: #2
RE: IAF finalizing plans for Iranian airstrike.
Bush faltered just like Clinton, in its support of Israel. The consequences of applying diplomacy to a clear and present danger may trigger another world war.
04-18-2009 08:36 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #3
RE: IAF finalizing plans for Iranian airstrike.
The retaliation will actually be against the oil fields in Saudi. The Iranians will assume Israel had Saudi cooperation to launch the strike. They will probably be correct in that assumption.

That's one reason why the Saudis may let Israeli aircraft use Saudi bases. Better positioned to scramble in defense.

I'd still be very interested in knowing where the Israeli Dolphins are. They supposedly have 30 days' endurance.

The US will probably be inevitably drawn into defending against the counter-strike.

This has the potential to be very interesting.
(This post was last modified: 04-18-2009 08:53 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
04-18-2009 08:52 PM
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smn1256 Offline
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Post: #4
RE: IAF finalizing plans for Iranian airstrike.
I think the Israelis should give Obama a shot at resolving the Iranian nuclear problem. Who knows, maybe they'll listen to him, or maybe Obama would offer them billions in aid. Who knows...

If that fails, Israel should put on parade any and all nuclear tipped missiles they may have and make it known that if Iran does something stupid it would cost them dearly. I don't know how much of a missile defense system Israel might have but they need a good one, assuming, of course, that's how Iran will hit them.
04-18-2009 09:31 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #5
RE: IAF finalizing plans for Iranian airstrike.
What do you think about this idea?

I don't think we can prevent anyone who really wants nukes from getting them. But anyone who does will have at best a minimal nuclear capability for some significant period. Suppose we adopted the policy that in the event of any nuclear attack, or attempted nuclear attack, by anyone against anyone, we would reserve the right to treat that as an attack on the US and retaliate to the fullest extent of our capability? You nuke your neighbor, you got 250 incomings.

We could make it clear that we are reserving the right, not committing absolutely, to give us wiggle room if needed. Of course, we probably couldn't wiggle out of more than one before we'd lose our credibility. Of course, we're used to losing our credibility after wimp-@$$ responses, so that might not be anything new. I'm guessing we'd probably have to be willing to back this one up.
(This post was last modified: 04-18-2009 09:40 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
04-18-2009 09:39 PM
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Fo Shizzle Offline
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Post: #6
RE: IAF finalizing plans for Iranian airstrike.
(04-18-2009 09:39 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  What do you think about this idea?

I don't think we can prevent anyone who really wants nukes from getting them. But anyone who does will have at best a minimal nuclear capability for some significant period. Suppose we adopted the policy that in the event of any nuclear attack, or attempted nuclear attack, by anyone against anyone, we would reserve the right to treat that as an attack on the US and retaliate to the fullest extent of our capability? You nuke your neighbor, you got 250 incomings.

We could make it clear that we are reserving the right, not committing absolutely, to give us wiggle room if needed. Of course, we probably couldn't wiggle out of more than one before we'd lose our credibility. Of course, we're used to losing our credibility after wimp-@$$ responses, so that might not be anything new. I'm guessing we'd probably have to be willing to back this one up.

I'd hesitate in joining a nuclear alliance..but..I think some agreement with China and Russia to join in this would be prudent. Some cud to chew on anyway.03-idea
04-18-2009 09:50 PM
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WoodlandsOwl Offline
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Post: #7
RE: IAF finalizing plans for Iranian airstrike.
(04-18-2009 09:39 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  What do you think about this idea?

I don't think we can prevent anyone who really wants nukes from getting them. But anyone who does will have at best a minimal nuclear capability for some significant period. Suppose we adopted the policy that in the event of any nuclear attack, or attempted nuclear attack, by anyone against anyone, we would reserve the right to treat that as an attack on the US and retaliate to the fullest extent of our capability? You nuke your neighbor, you got 250 incomings.

Heard something interesting tonight..the NK missile test flight profile didn't look like a "typical malfunction" ... more of a deliberate termination. The theory is that he is developing a EMP weapon, and not the usual ballistic missile re-entry vehicle.
04-18-2009 09:53 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #8
RE: IAF finalizing plans for Iranian airstrike.
(04-18-2009 09:53 PM)WMD Owl Wrote:  
(04-18-2009 09:39 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  What do you think about this idea?
I don't think we can prevent anyone who really wants nukes from getting them. But anyone who does will have at best a minimal nuclear capability for some significant period. Suppose we adopted the policy that in the event of any nuclear attack, or attempted nuclear attack, by anyone against anyone, we would reserve the right to treat that as an attack on the US and retaliate to the fullest extent of our capability? You nuke your neighbor, you got 250 incomings.
Heard something interesting tonight..the NK missile test flight profile didn't look like a "typical malfunction" ... more of a deliberate termination. The theory is that he is developing a EMP weapon, and not the usual ballistic missile re-entry vehicle.

Very interesting. Not to mention alarming.
What do you think was the over/under for number of Iranian nuke/bio/chem/missile scientists on hand for the NK launch?
More interesting question. What do you think was the over/under for number of former Iraqi nuke/bio/chem/missile scientists on hand?
04-18-2009 10:06 PM
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SumOfAllFears Offline
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Post: #9
RE: IAF finalizing plans for Iranian airstrike.
If the ObamaMessiah embraces the Islamic viewpoint, rebuilding of Salomon's Temple at the Dom of the Rock may occur sooner rather than later..
04-18-2009 10:51 PM
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WoodlandsOwl Offline
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Post: #10
RE: IAF finalizing plans for Iranian airstrike.
(04-18-2009 10:06 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  What do you think was the over/under for number of Iranian nuke/bio/chem/missile scientists on hand for the NK launch?
More interesting question. What do you think was the over/under for number of former Iraqi nuke/bio/chem/missile scientists on hand?

I think every Iranian in their missile program was there, and every North Korean equivalent goes to Iran for their tests. It is a co-development project. I bet there were some Syrians there too since they supposedly want to buy some more SCUD type surface to surface missiles.

[/i]Back in 2002 the Spanish, acting on US intelligence, intecepted a NK Freighter with 15 SCUDS heading for a port in Yemen. Yemen said they bought the SCUDS (yea right), and the US eventually let the Yemenis have them, but I am pretty sure the missiles were inoperable when they were delivered. I think they were destined for Syria or Iraq.

North Korea Believed to Have in Hand ICBM Capability

U. S intelligence has suggested that North Korea could export ICBM technology and or hardware to Iran in 2009. This has confirmed the indication that North Korea has ICBM capability in hand but not fully demonstrated. This is according to Admiral Timothy Keating, Chief of U. S Pacific Command as reported in the Middle East Newsline. It is assumed that that ICBM or satellite launch capability may once again be tested in 2009. (30)

Potential North Korean Connection in Iran

It is to understand is that the upper stages of the Ghadr-110/110A, Samen/Sejjil/Ashura could in fact become the second, third and fourth stages of the Taep'o-dong-2C/3 in place of the known No-dong-B second stage and solid motor third stage if the design revision that was suggested recently by South Korean Intelligence is correct. Iran is known to have participated in the Taep'o-dong-2C/3 development. North Korea is expected to flight test one or two Teap'o-dong-2 class missile either as a satellite launcher attempt or a ballistic missile flight or both in the spring or summer of 2009. Iran is further expected to attempt a satellite launch any time between November 2008 and the end of March 2009 as the State plan requires to be accomplished.


http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/worl...pments.htm
04-18-2009 11:26 PM
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RobertN Offline
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Post: #11
RE: IAF finalizing plans for Iranian airstrike.
(04-18-2009 10:06 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(04-18-2009 09:53 PM)WMD Owl Wrote:  
(04-18-2009 09:39 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  What do you think about this idea?
I don't think we can prevent anyone who really wants nukes from getting them. But anyone who does will have at best a minimal nuclear capability for some significant period. Suppose we adopted the policy that in the event of any nuclear attack, or attempted nuclear attack, by anyone against anyone, we would reserve the right to treat that as an attack on the US and retaliate to the fullest extent of our capability? You nuke your neighbor, you got 250 incomings.
Heard something interesting tonight..the NK missile test flight profile didn't look like a "typical malfunction" ... more of a deliberate termination. The theory is that he is developing a EMP weapon, and not the usual ballistic missile re-entry vehicle.

Very interesting. Not to mention alarming.
What do you think was the over/under for number of Iranian nuke/bio/chem/missile scientists on hand for the NK launch?
More interesting question. What do you think was the over/under for number of former Iraqi nuke/bio/chem/missile scientists on hand?
You guys are still hoping against hope that the Iraqi's had nukes? 03-lmfao THe world has seen through that crap and laughs at us for still believing it. You still hope that you weren't lied to. Very sad.

As for the Israelies bombing Iran, if they do, you can be sure that it will be the start of some REALLY bad thing in this world-ending up in WWIII and the end of the world as we know it.
04-19-2009 02:00 AM
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THE NC Herd Fan Offline
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Post: #12
RE: IAF finalizing plans for Iranian airstrike.
The western world's reaction to this after Israel completes this..... SILENCE, they will be grateful including Barry O. for doing what they would be too afraid to do, very similar to Israel wiping out Iraq's nuclear facilities decades ago. Heck the Saudi's may even remain silent.
(This post was last modified: 04-19-2009 12:59 PM by THE NC Herd Fan.)
04-19-2009 06:51 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #13
RE: IAF finalizing plans for Iranian airstrike.
I'd say there's better than a 50-50 chance that the Saudis will be actively engaged in helping Israel get it done.
04-19-2009 07:11 AM
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Tripster Offline
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Post: #14
RE: IAF finalizing plans for Iranian airstrike.
(04-19-2009 02:00 AM)RobertN Wrote:  You guys are still hoping against hope that the Iraqi's had nukes? 03-lmfao THe world has seen through that crap and laughs at us for still believing it. You still hope that you weren't lied to. Very sad.

As for the Israelies bombing Iran, if they do, you can be sure that it will be the start of some REALLY bad thing in this world-ending up in WWIII and the end of the world as we know it.

ROBERT !!!!!! I am shocked and taken aback by your Ugly Attitude here ....

You are sounding like one of those Scared Conservatives you are always putting down for just 'Thinking Ahead" and preparing for What Is Inevitable.

I hope Israel knocks Iran so far out into space that there is a huge New Gulf between Iraq and Afghanistan ....

I despise their very guts and hope the absolute worst for them .....

And don't give me any of that Cry-Baby Crap about Innocent Women and Children .... there are enough young men over there that could take Hoc-a-Lugi-Jihad and his Ayatollah-Ass-a-Holla's, Mullahs, Sheiks, Deeks, Geeks, and Freaks out without all of this other mess.

If the majority of the Iranian People want peace and to be left alone, then KILL these Bastards and shut them up .... it is these Despots who are the Cause and Effect of Their Own Evil Doing, not the U.S. or Israel.

Well SURELY not the U.S. with The Cowardly Ring Kisser now in the Oval Office, but I am just saying ..... ya know ....

.
04-19-2009 09:11 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #15
RE: IAF finalizing plans for Iranian airstrike.
(04-19-2009 02:00 AM)RobertN Wrote:  You guys are still hoping against hope that the Iraqi's had nukes?

Nope.
Wrong again.
I'd say try again, but there's really no point.
You're too far away from reality to make it worthwhile to continue.
(This post was last modified: 04-19-2009 02:05 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
04-19-2009 02:03 PM
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Lord Stanley Offline
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Post: #16
RE: IAF finalizing plans for Iranian airstrike.
I'm not sure I buy Saudi involvement or assistance in any Israeli strikes on Iran - yet. Evidence seems a bit thin.
04-19-2009 05:07 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #17
RE: IAF finalizing plans for Iranian airstrike.
(04-19-2009 05:07 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  I'm not sure I buy Saudi involvement or assistance in any Israeli strikes on Iran - yet. Evidence seems a bit thin.

I've heard it from some sources in the area.
The Saudis do fear Iran, probably more strongly than any negative feelings toward Israel. Israel has accomplished some fairly high-profile operations with Saudi assistance.
Saudis do expect that any retaliation will be directed against them.
I don't think Iran can really hit Israel with anything.
04-19-2009 05:35 PM
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RobertN Offline
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Post: #18
RE: IAF finalizing plans for Iranian airstrike.
(04-19-2009 09:11 AM)Tripster Wrote:  
(04-19-2009 02:00 AM)RobertN Wrote:  You guys are still hoping against hope that the Iraqi's had nukes? 03-lmfao THe world has seen through that crap and laughs at us for still believing it. You still hope that you weren't lied to. Very sad.

As for the Israelies bombing Iran, if they do, you can be sure that it will be the start of some REALLY bad thing in this world-ending up in WWIII and the end of the world as we know it.

ROBERT !!!!!! I am shocked and taken aback by your Ugly Attitude here ....

You are sounding like one of those Scared Conservatives you are always putting down for just 'Thinking Ahead" and preparing for What Is Inevitable.

I hope Israel knocks Iran so far out into space that there is a huge New Gulf between Iraq and Afghanistan ....

I despise their very guts and hope the absolute worst for them .....

And don't give me any of that Cry-Baby Crap about Innocent Women and Children .... there are enough young men over there that could take Hoc-a-Lugi-Jihad and his Ayatollah-Ass-a-Holla's, Mullahs, Sheiks, Deeks, Geeks, and Freaks out without all of this other mess.

If the majority of the Iranian People want peace and to be left alone, then KILL these Bastards and shut them up .... it is these Despots who are the Cause and Effect of Their Own Evil Doing, not the U.S. or Israel.

Well SURELY not the U.S. with The Cowardly Ring Kisser now in the Oval Office, but I am just saying ..... ya know ....

.
Well now, isn't that great. Lets just kill ten million+ people who don't hate us in order to get a few 1000 that don't. Brilliant! You should run for President under the platform, "The New Crusades". I am sure you will get a large part of the southern "Christian" rightwing nutcases and a large number of Jewish people.
04-19-2009 05:50 PM
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I45owl Offline
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Post: #19
RE: IAF finalizing plans for Iranian airstrike.
(04-19-2009 05:35 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(04-19-2009 05:07 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  I'm not sure I buy Saudi involvement or assistance in any Israeli strikes on Iran - yet. Evidence seems a bit thin.

I've heard it from some sources in the area.
The Saudis do fear Iran, probably more strongly than any negative feelings toward Israel. Israel has accomplished some fairly high-profile operations with Saudi assistance.
Saudis do expect that any retaliation will be directed against them.
I don't think Iran can really hit Israel with anything.

I have no doubt that if this happens, the Saudis will have to assist them at least passively if not actively. Regardless of that, I have no doubt that you're right about the retaliation hitting Saudi oil installations. The only bit that I'd question is that Iran can't strike back at Israel - they may not be able to do it directly, but they have proxies in Hezbollah and Hamas that would almost surely attempt to strike at Israel regardless of whether they were directed to do so by Iran or not (and they would be).

IIRC, Biden has already publicly indicated that the US requested that Israel not take any action against Iran, so I personally expect the administration to throw Israel in front of the bus if this actually does happen. I wonder if any Arrows/US Equivalents are in Saudi around their refineries (isn't the Arrow a "joint" project insofar as there are American-made versions of it in addition to the Patriot)? I also wonder whether the Saudis have the capability of striking back at Iranian refineries?
04-20-2009 09:35 AM
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Post: #20
RE: IAF finalizing plans for Iranian airstrike.
(04-19-2009 07:11 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I'd say there's better than a 50-50 chance that the Saudis will be actively engaged in helping Israel get it done.

This.

Agree with Herd. The west will remain pretty much silent. You may see a "We're greatly discouraged by Israel acting without consulting the international community" heck there may even be another UN resolution condemning the attack. But nothing of any tangible consequence.
04-20-2009 09:38 AM
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