Now that we officially have a 24-team playoff, every team in the P4, as the conferences currently stand, is going to make the playoff with two losses. Most of them are going to get in with three losses.

ACC: 17 teams
Big Ten: 16 teams
Big 12: 16 teams
SEC: 16 teams

The 10 P4-team requirement
The value of M2 games has significantly increased with this announcement. For example, if you are Auburn, a game against someone like UCF or Kansas is better than one against Ohio State. The M2s arguably have an advantage in this system because it gives programs like Houston an easier path to the playoff than Florida. I’m shocked the SEC and Big Ten agreed to these terms.

Do the P2 still expand?
SEC – I think the SEC still has cause to add UVA and UNC. They add new markets, improve the academic profile, significantly improve basketball, and add an easy win for the top SEC programs in football.
Big Ten – In my opinion, there is no reason for the Big Ten to expand. Adding Clemson or Miami isn’t going to have the impact it would have had when only 12 teams were getting in.
Do the M2 still expand?
ACC – If they lose two teams, I think they add UConn to get to 16 and call it quits. There is no reason to go past 16 right now. USF is never getting into the ACC while FSU and Miami remain.
Big 12 – The consistent underperformance of Kansas and the overperformance of Houston, BYU, Utah, and Texas Tech mean no one is coming for Big 12 teams. There is no real reason for them to expand past 16 right now either. Their expansion candidates (Memphis, USF, New Mexico, SDSU, Oregon State, and UNLV) have nowhere to go.

G6 Expansion
What the American Conference does is going to cause a cascade within these ranks. With the addition of James Madison, it’s clear the AAC has no intention of sitting idle. I won’t be shocked if they add Ohio, Buffalo, and Liberty (regardless of how you feel Liberty is one of the best G6 football programs), along with some additions to bolster basketball.

There is every incentive to expand additionally for the P2 to further separate themselves from the pack. There is a asymptotic point of diminishing returns past 20 or 22. I think the SEC needs to add six schools (from the Mag 7) and the B1G needs to add Miami Stanford and/or GTech. None of the Big 12 schools make sense for the P2, except for Utah and KU.

FOX and the Big 10 will still want to expand to the Southeast for geographic and demographic reasons.

(Today 02:30 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  There is every incentive to expand additionally for the P2 to further separate themselves from the pack. There is a asymptotic point of diminishing returns past 20 or 22. I think the SEC needs to add six schools (from the Mag 7) and the B1G needs to add Miami Stanford and/or GTech. None of the Big 12 schools make sense for the P2, except for Utah and KU.

Interesting.

But does expanding with Miami, GT, and Stanford actually do this? For example did adding Nebraska, Maryland, and Rutgers actually make the Big 10 a better conference? Yes, those additions arguably increased the revenue because it added several big markets. But what guarantee do you have that adding Miami is going to translate to more playoff bids?

And you say the SEC "NEEDS" to add six schools. But right now the SEC is dominating the polls despite being a smaller conference than the Big 10. I actually think our aggressive expansion is working against us. And the same goes for the Big 12, they have more ranked teams than we do despite being a bigger conference.

After the big four of the ACC (Miami, North Carolina, Florida State and Clemson) there isn't any solid additive value in the remainder of the ACC or Big 12 for the B1G or SEC to bother. I am of course ignoring Notre Dame. I pretty much think, if there is to be expansion those four are it. Notre Dame I think stays even with those four lost, but enters a FB deal with the B1G to rotate through three or four of their schools annually alongside the ACC five or six. I think its very unlikely the Big 12 gets touched, maybe one school if Notre Dame ever moved.

But the expanded CFP could well relieve a lot of the pressure to exit the ACC. At 24 schools the ACC is likely looking at 3 per year, sometimes 4, which makes life far better for these four schools. It could also arrest the divergence in media revenue the SEC and B1G have, stabilizing the gap, as the ACC and Big 12 will be producing around 1/3rd of the CFP teams adding value to their games. That might stave off realignment.

I am optimistic anyway that we have some years ahead without A4 membership changes.

(Today 02:42 PM)schmolik Wrote:  FOX and the Big 10 will still want to expand to the Southeast for geographic and demographic reasons.

Do we have official sources for this?

As I mentioned, I understand why the SEC would go to 18-20. UNC and UVA offer way more advantages than disadvantages. And so do Duke and FSU.

However, Big 10 expansion into the south seems like wishful thinking. Realistically our options are Cal and Stanford. And what is the point in doing that? You actually weaken the conference and reduce the number of times schools that actually want to play each other do so. And if we wanted Miami we could have added them BEFORE the playoff expanded.

(Today 02:53 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  After the big four of the ACC (Miami, North Carolina, Florida State and Clemson) there isn't any solid additive value in the remainder of the ACC or Big 12 for the B1G or SEC to bother. I am of course ignoring Notre Dame. I pretty much think, if there is to be expansion those four are it. Notre Dame I think stays even with those four lost, but enters a FB deal with the B1G to rotate through three or four of their schools annually alongside the ACC five or six. I think its very unlikely the Big 12 gets touched, maybe one school if Notre Dame ever moved.

But the expanded CFP could well relieve a lot of the pressure to exit the ACC. At 24 schools the ACC is likely looking at 3 per year, sometimes 4, which makes life far better for these four schools. It could also arrest the divergence in media revenue the SEC and B1G have, stabilizing the gap, as the ACC and Big 12 will be producing around 1/3rd of the CFP teams adding value to their games. That might stave off realignment.

I am optimistic anyway that we have some years ahead without A4 membership changes.

For the most part agreed.

I understand why FSU got so frustrated with their situation in the ACC. That year when they got left out was pretty messed up. And the ACC has struggled to produce multiple top 12 teams unlike the rest of the P4. But at 24 it no longer matters what the rest of the ACC is doing. If you win 10 games you are going to the playoff.

Then I feel like some people are missing the ramifications of adding M2 teams. The more you raid them the more G6 teams they invite. USF in the ACC has just as much chance to be in the top 25 as Indiana.

(Today 03:32 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(Today 02:53 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  After the big four of the ACC (Miami, North Carolina, Florida State and Clemson) there isn't any solid additive value in the remainder of the ACC or Big 12 for the B1G or SEC to bother. I am of course ignoring Notre Dame. I pretty much think, if there is to be expansion those four are it. Notre Dame I think stays even with those four lost, but enters a FB deal with the B1G to rotate through three or four of their schools annually alongside the ACC five or six. I think its very unlikely the Big 12 gets touched, maybe one school if Notre Dame ever moved.

But the expanded CFP could well relieve a lot of the pressure to exit the ACC. At 24 schools the ACC is likely looking at 3 per year, sometimes 4, which makes life far better for these four schools. It could also arrest the divergence in media revenue the SEC and B1G have, stabilizing the gap, as the ACC and Big 12 will be producing around 1/3rd of the CFP teams adding value to their games. That might stave off realignment.

I am optimistic anyway that we have some years ahead without A4 membership changes.

For the most part agreed.

I understand why FSU got so frustrated with their situation in the ACC. That year when they got left out was pretty messed up. And the ACC has struggled to produce multiple top 12 teams unlike the rest of the P4. But at 24 it no longer matters what the rest of the ACC is doing. If you win 10 games you are going to the playoff.

Then I feel like some people are missing the ramifications of adding M2 teams. The more you raid them the more G6 teams they invite. USF in the ACC has just as much chance to be in the top 25 as Indiana.

There aren't any pat answers. It depends upon a few things.

1. Though unlikely now if the PCSA gets passed with caps then expansion toward the cap would happen for a lot of reasons. Market reach, branding, the balancing of scheduling, etc. But the Big Ten and SEC will want equal voting strength in whatever organization comes next.

2. If the PCSA doesn't pass then the SEC will look at taking the top heavy edge off of its composition and the Big Ten would likely look to increase theirs. In that world Duke, Virginia, North Carolina do all add in the right ways to the SEC including balancing the degree of difficulty for top schools playing each other. Maybe a conference that has Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Texas, and Oklahoma to go with a middle that can emerge for a year or two with Auburn, Mississippi, Missouri, South Carolina, or A&M would love to make it 4 basketball schools and you could toss in Kansas. The SEC has a solid top, a solid middle and only a couple of bottom feeders. The Big Ten could use a Miami for branding and a school out West to reduce travel. If Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State regularly were on Miami's schedule the strength of schedule would go up as would recruiting opportunities.

3. The predatory nature of current college athletics coupled with the failure of the PCSA to pass could lead to a Big Ten and SEC of 24 each possibly in 4 divisions of 6. Why? The best way to get a larger payout from the regular season and the CFP is to eliminate those who would compete for a share. If each of the SEC and Big Ten moved to 24 it would effectively eliminate one of the remaining conferences, likely the Big 12 and ACC's best form a third conference.

In that world whatever the Big Ten and SEC agreed upon would be done. There would be no outvoting them.

4. Therefore, all options and some we haven't considered would be on the table in the absence of regulation beyond players' unions and collective bargaining. It will be professional in nature and business in conduct. A predatory nature will simply be a natural part of the process. Anything could happen. So they will make moves that add valuable markets. They will add brands that increase audience share, and they will add schools just to eliminate the number of schools to be paid or considered for the postseason.

As some in the media have said, I think it more likely that top brands will go independent than that the P2 will expand or that the top P2 brands will form a super conference.

I understand that Notre Dame makes less money than do conference members in the P2, even though ND's media value is clearly higher than the B1G median or average member value, if they were independent, which implies that there is a conference synergy premium or somesuch, as some around here have noted.

Nevertheless, I think in relative terms. If e.g. Ohio State and USC and Michigan go independent they may drop from $85m in the B1G to $70m each independent.

But, if they leave the B1G, the remainder will get a haircut down to say $50m, and IMO it is better for Ohio State to make $70m while Indiana and Purdue get $50m than for all three to get $85m.

Maybe we shall see.

(Today 02:15 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  Now that we officially have a 24-team playoff, every team in the P4, as the conferences currently stand, is going to make the playoff with two losses. Most of them are going to get in with three losses.

ACC: 17 teams
Big Ten: 16 teams
Big 12: 16 teams
SEC: 16 teams

The 10 P4-team requirement
The value of M2 games has significantly increased with this announcement. For example, if you are Auburn, a game against someone like UCF or Kansas is better than one against Ohio State. The M2s arguably have an advantage in this system because it gives programs like Houston an easier path to the playoff than Florida. I’m shocked the SEC and Big Ten agreed to these terms.

Do the P2 still expand?
SEC – I think the SEC still has cause to add UVA and UNC. They add new markets, improve the academic profile, significantly improve basketball, and add an easy win for the top SEC programs in football.
Big Ten – In my opinion, there is no reason for the Big Ten to expand. Adding Clemson or Miami isn’t going to have the impact it would have had when only 12 teams were getting in.
Do the M2 still expand?
ACC – If they lose two teams, I think they add UConn to get to 16 and call it quits. There is no reason to go past 16 right now. USF is never getting into the ACC while FSU and Miami remain.
Big 12 – The consistent underperformance of Kansas and the overperformance of Houston, BYU, Utah, and Texas Tech mean no one is coming for Big 12 teams. There is no real reason for them to expand past 16 right now either. Their expansion candidates (Memphis, USF, New Mexico, SDSU, Oregon State, and UNLV) have nowhere to go.

G6 Expansion
What the American Conference does is going to cause a cascade within these ranks. With the addition of James Madison, it’s clear the AAC has no intention of sitting idle. I won’t be shocked if they add Ohio, Buffalo, and Liberty (regardless of how you feel Liberty is one of the best G6 football programs), along with some additions to bolster basketball.

Oregon State's future and fortune all relies on Jensen Huang continues to shine. Now you can scratch Oregon State from the list of P4. It will stay forever on new PAC12.

(Today 02:42 PM)schmolik Wrote:  FOX and the Big 10 will still want to expand to the Southeast for geographic and demographic reasons.

B1G should add GA Tech and Miami so most schools can have a warm weather road game in winter. Both are AAU schools with good logistics.

(Today 05:43 PM)Blust3 Wrote:  

(Today 02:42 PM)schmolik Wrote:  FOX and the Big 10 will still want to expand to the Southeast for geographic and demographic reasons.

B1G should add GA Tech and Miami so most schools can have a warm weather road game in winter. Both are AAU schools with good logistics.

Or maybe the Big Ten and SEC bundle their rights next go ‘round.

(Today 05:43 PM)Blust3 Wrote:  

(Today 02:42 PM)schmolik Wrote:  FOX and the Big 10 will still want to expand to the Southeast for geographic and demographic reasons.

B1G should add GA Tech and Miami so most schools can have a warm weather road game in winter. Both are AAU schools with good logistics.

Believe it or not Georgia gets pretty cold. Adding GT for a warm weather game when the season goes through December would be crazy.

Notre Dame Conference: 1 Team

(Today 02:15 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  Now that we officially have a 24-team playoff, every team in the P4, as the conferences currently stand, is going to make the playoff with two losses. Most of them are going to get in with three losses.

ACC: 17 teams
Big Ten: 16 teams
Big 12: 16 teams
SEC: 16 teams

The 10 P4-team requirement
The value of M2 games has significantly increased with this announcement. For example, if you are Auburn, a game against someone like UCF or Kansas is better than one against Ohio State. The M2s arguably have an advantage in this system because it gives programs like Houston an easier path to the playoff than Florida. I’m shocked the SEC and Big Ten agreed to these terms.

Do the P2 still expand?
SEC – I think the SEC still has cause to add UVA and UNC. They add new markets, improve the academic profile, significantly improve basketball, and add an easy win for the top SEC programs in football.
Big Ten – In my opinion, there is no reason for the Big Ten to expand. Adding Clemson or Miami isn’t going to have the impact it would have had when only 12 teams were getting in.
Do the M2 still expand?
ACC – If they lose two teams, I think they add UConn to get to 16 and call it quits. There is no reason to go past 16 right now. USF is never getting into the ACC while FSU and Miami remain.
Big 12 – The consistent underperformance of Kansas and the overperformance of Houston, BYU, Utah, and Texas Tech mean no one is coming for Big 12 teams. There is no real reason for them to expand past 16 right now either. Their expansion candidates (Memphis, USF, New Mexico, SDSU, Oregon State, and UNLV) have nowhere to go.

G6 Expansion
What the American Conference does is going to cause a cascade within these ranks. With the addition of James Madison, it’s clear the AAC has no intention of sitting idle. I won’t be shocked if they add Ohio, Buffalo, and Liberty (regardless of how you feel Liberty is one of the best G6 football programs), along with some additions to bolster basketball.

When consulting companies and private equity firms tell the conferences they are leaving money on the table by not expanding, you are only hurting your membership by not adding the right school(s).

(Today 02:53 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  After the big four of the ACC (Miami, North Carolina, Florida State and Clemson) there isn't any solid additive value in the remainder of the ACC or Big 12 for the B1G or SEC to bother. I am of course ignoring Notre Dame. I pretty much think, if there is to be expansion those four are it. Notre Dame I think stays even with those four lost, but enters a FB deal with the B1G to rotate through three or four of their schools annually alongside the ACC five or six. I think its very unlikely the Big 12 gets touched, maybe one school if Notre Dame ever moved.

But the expanded CFP could well relieve a lot of the pressure to exit the ACC. At 24 schools the ACC is likely looking at 3 per year, sometimes 4, which makes life far better for these four schools. It could also arrest the divergence in media revenue the SEC and B1G have, stabilizing the gap, as the ACC and Big 12 will be producing around 1/3rd of the CFP teams adding value to their games. That might stave off realignment.

I am optimistic anyway that we have some years ahead without A4 membership changes.

North Carolina and Duke are a package deal.

(Today 05:16 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  As some in the media have said, I think it more likely that top brands will go independent than that the P2 will expand or that the top P2 brands will form a super conference.

I understand that Notre Dame makes less money than do conference members in the P2, even though ND's media value is clearly higher than the B1G median or average member value, if they were independent, which implies that there is a conference synergy premium or somesuch, as some around here have noted.

Nevertheless, I think in relative terms. If e.g. Ohio State and USC and Michigan go independent they may drop from $85m in the B1G to $70m each independent.

But, if they leave the B1G, the remainder will get a haircut down to say $50m, and IMO it is better for Ohio State to make $70m while Indiana and Purdue get $50m than for all three to get $85m.

Maybe we shall see.

In the B1G, take out 2 or 3 schools and the rest are a slightly better M2. However, it would take a lot more exits to cripple the SEC. You probably need 10, maybe 15 schools as indpendents to make your idea viable. Any less, and a group of the "left behind" schools could group together into a New P1 that's paid roughly the same as the current P2 on a per school basis. Is Alabama gonna accept making less than Auburn? Michigan making less than Michigan St? And then all of this ignores the history that the core SEC and B1G schools have with each other, which is not unlike the close history that the ACC and Pac 12 schools have/had with each other. As we've seen, it's taken a huge financial incentive to get schools to consider leaving these conferences. Nobody is leaving a conference to take a $15m a year pay CUT.

(Today 10:00 PM)C2__ Wrote:  

(Today 02:53 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  After the big four of the ACC (Miami, North Carolina, Florida State and Clemson) there isn't any solid additive value in the remainder of the ACC or Big 12 for the B1G or SEC to bother. I am of course ignoring Notre Dame. I pretty much think, if there is to be expansion those four are it. Notre Dame I think stays even with those four lost, but enters a FB deal with the B1G to rotate through three or four of their schools annually alongside the ACC five or six. I think its very unlikely the Big 12 gets touched, maybe one school if Notre Dame ever moved.

But the expanded CFP could well relieve a lot of the pressure to exit the ACC. At 24 schools the ACC is likely looking at 3 per year, sometimes 4, which makes life far better for these four schools. It could also arrest the divergence in media revenue the SEC and B1G have, stabilizing the gap, as the ACC and Big 12 will be producing around 1/3rd of the CFP teams adding value to their games. That might stave off realignment.

I am optimistic anyway that we have some years ahead without A4 membership changes.

North Carolina and Duke are a package deal.

Source?

The source is common sense. They're two big rivals 8 miles apart. They aren't being split up for Hell over high water.