(11-11-2026 12:07 PM)Motown Bronco Wrote: Not sure what happens if Toledo, WMU and Buffalo win out, creating a three-way tie. All teams will be 1-1 within that trio.
Record vs. All Common Opponents Rule:
Highest winning percentage against all common conference opponents.
Application: Identify every MAC team that all three schools played during the regular season.
If one team has a superior record against that common pool, that team claims the higher seed.
If two teams remain tied after one team is separated (either ahead or eliminated), the remaining two immediately revert to the Two-Team Tiebreaker formula, beginning with their head-to-head result.
If all three have identical winning percentages against common opponents, move to Step 3.
SportSource Analytics Team Rating Score Rule:
The team with the highest ranking according to the proprietary Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of the regular season.
Application: This is the MAC's advanced computer metric tiebreaker (similar to what is used across several FBS conferences). The team ranked highest here claims the top spot among the tied group. Once one team advances (or is seeded), the remaining two revert back to the two-team tiebreaker (head-to-head).
The irony here? BOWLING GREEN IS THE ONLY COMMON OPPONENT ACROSS ALL THREE TEAMS!
So, then we head to the SportSource analytic score. Here's where it stands:
Sports-Reference SRS
Toledo: +3.47 (1st in MAC)
Western Michigan: +0.75 (2nd in MAC)
Buffalo: -6.04 (5th in MAC)
Toledo is far and away the highest rated team. Not even close. This is based on:
1) Overall record
2) Scoring offense
3) Scoring defense
4) Point differential
5) TeamRankings Predictive Rating
The only one of those Toledo is not #1 in is the predictive ranking. Right now Toledo is ranked #91 nationally, while Western Michigan is #90. Buffalo is #121. However, of all three teams, the biggest "gainer" on the schedule is Toledo v. Ohio. A win over Ohio and Toledo will absolutely leap over Western Michigan on the rankings side of the equation, too.