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Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe a Buffalo win tonight guarantees us a spot in Detroit?

GO BULLS!!!!

They have a shot against this Miami backup QB

I believe you're right, we are all Bulls tonight. I can't think of a scenario where we wouldn't go to Detroit if Miami is knocked out.

(11-19-2025 09:09 AM)Motown Bronco Wrote:  I believe you're right, we are all Bulls tonight. I can't think of a scenario where we wouldn't go to Detroit if Miami is knocked out.

I think the only remaining scenario that would keep us out is if we lose to EMU and both Miami and Toledo win out.

(11-19-2025 10:26 AM)AFLAGWA Wrote:  

(11-19-2025 09:09 AM)Motown Bronco Wrote:  I believe you're right, we are all Bulls tonight. I can't think of a scenario where we wouldn't go to Detroit if Miami is knocked out.

I think the only remaining scenario that would keep us out is if we lose to EMU and both Miami and Toledo win out.

but we beat toledo. do we not own the tiebreaker with them. I don't understand how we are NOT already in the MACC.

All I can think is that if multiple are tied for the same spot it washes out head to head and reverts to overall record?

(11-19-2025 10:37 AM)Liam9903 Wrote:  All I can think is that if multiple are tied for the same spot it washes out head to head and reverts to overall record?

If it came down to WMU, UT and MU were head to head would be a wash, then they look at common opponents.
Here, MU has played UT and OU and lost to both. WMU beat both UT and OU so Miami would be out.
If UT wins out. The common opponents they would have played and won against would be MU, BSU, CMU, and NIU. We lost to MU, but beat UT head to head, so we would be in over them.

(11-19-2025 10:47 AM)westernwilly Wrote:  

(11-19-2025 10:37 AM)Liam9903 Wrote:  All I can think is that if multiple are tied for the same spot it washes out head to head and reverts to overall record?

If it came down to WMU, UT and MU were head to head would be a wash, then they look at common opponents.
Here, MU has played UT and OU and lost to both. WMU beat both UT and OU so Miami would be out.
If UT wins out. The common opponents they would have played and won against would be MU, BSU, CMU, and NIU. We lost to MU, but beat UT head to head, so we would be in over them.

I thought the "common opponents" would be outside that 3-some. In that case, we'd look at NIU and BSU (the only two teams all three schools have played). We've swept them, and Toledo and Miami still have to play BSU. If everyone sweeps NIU/BSU, I have no idea where the next level goes.

I don't think overall record including non-con will play a role in this at all.

It's pretty clear as mud, lol. Maybe WesternDave knows, he seems to be pretty up on this stuff.

Just goes to show that 13 teams fighting for 2 spots leaves the margin of error really thin.

(11-19-2025 10:34 AM)kshoe77 Wrote:  

(11-19-2025 10:26 AM)AFLAGWA Wrote:  

(11-19-2025 09:09 AM)Motown Bronco Wrote:  I believe you're right, we are all Bulls tonight. I can't think of a scenario where we wouldn't go to Detroit if Miami is knocked out.

I think the only remaining scenario that would keep us out is if we lose to EMU and both Miami and Toledo win out.

but we beat toledo. do we not own the tiebreaker with them. I don't understand how we are NOT already in the MACC.

But everyone in that group in this scenario (WMU-UT-MU) would be 1-1 against each other, so then it gets murky beyond that. I disagree that we'd automatically be "out" though, but they'd have to dig deeper in the tie-breaker rules which I'm not fully understanding.

What I’m hoping (and what would make sense to me) is that since they’d have to tiebreak for both 1st and 2nd, they would do it separately (figure out #1 first then reset and tiebreak #2). If that’s the case, then the only scenario I can see that we could be out (and even that isn’t clear) is a loss to EMU (duh) and Miami and Buffalo end up both 6-2. We beat everyone else. But that’s impossible since they play tonight. That would mean we’re already in no matter what.

The website isn’t really clear on whether that’s how they work it out. Given there’s been no announcement of WMU clinching, maybe it’s done a different way, in which case it’s very unclear to me how everything works out.

(11-19-2025 10:34 AM)kshoe77 Wrote:  

(11-19-2025 10:26 AM)AFLAGWA Wrote:  

(11-19-2025 09:09 AM)Motown Bronco Wrote:  I believe you're right, we are all Bulls tonight. I can't think of a scenario where we wouldn't go to Detroit if Miami is knocked out.

I think the only remaining scenario that would keep us out is if we lose to EMU and both Miami and Toledo win out.

but we beat toledo. do we not own the tiebreaker with them. I don't understand how we are NOT already in the MACC.

I agree. I think they are doing all this leaving it as an unknown just to create drama

(11-19-2025 12:06 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  

(11-19-2025 10:34 AM)kshoe77 Wrote:  

(11-19-2025 10:26 AM)AFLAGWA Wrote:  

(11-19-2025 09:09 AM)Motown Bronco Wrote:  I believe you're right, we are all Bulls tonight. I can't think of a scenario where we wouldn't go to Detroit if Miami is knocked out.

I think the only remaining scenario that would keep us out is if we lose to EMU and both Miami and Toledo win out.

but we beat toledo. do we not own the tiebreaker with them. I don't understand how we are NOT already in the MACC.

I agree. I think they are doing all this leaving it as an unknown just to create drama

I doubt they would do that on purpose. Plenty of drama for the other spot and it’s in the conference’s interest to let a team’s fans know ASAP so they can plan trips to the game.

Scenario – More than Two Teams
1. Combined head-to-head win percentage among the tied teams if all
tied teams are common opponents.
2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that
defeated each of the other tied teams advances.
3. Win percentage versus all common opponents.
4. Win percentage versus common opponents based upon their order
of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and
proceeding through other common opponents based upon their
order of finish.
5. Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents.
6. The tied team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score
metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of
regular season games.
7. The representative shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the
Commissioner or Commissioner’s designee.

Scenario - MU, UT, WMU

1. Everyone is 1-1. No decision go to next.
2. Not the case. Go Next.
3. Common opponents are NIU, BSU. This is why we needed to beat NIU because the other two swept the others (MU+UT would need to beat BSU to be in this situation.) Everyone is 2-0 against BSU, NIU so still not decided, go next.
4. Now we need to decide where teams finish in the standings, and it gets messy. Does CMU beat KSU tonight? CMU winning tonight will help WMU and UT. Ohio must lose to Buffalo in the final week for this scenario to occur. Get back to me tonight and it should be easier. We need to have this be the deciding tiebreaker because...
5. We likely lose this one because we played UMass and the other two didn't.
6. We likely lose this one because the computer ratings hate our offense.
7. I doubt this one will ever be used.

I believe that in all the 2 loss scenarios we win as long as Miami isn't one of the teams due to H2H.

If Miami wins tonight and we lose to Eastern, we would need Ohio to beat Buffalo.

Let's just go straight to #7.

(11-19-2025 12:42 PM)WesternDave Wrote:  I believe that in all the 2 loss scenarios we win as long as Miami isn't one of the teams due to H2H.

The thing I need to keep reminding myself of is that one team holding the tie-breaker over us doesn't matter. There have to be TWO teams that hold the tie-breaker over us for us to be out.

If Miami holds the tie-breaker over us, who is the 2nd team that would hold the tie-breaker over us if we were to finish 6-2?

My original post was going to be that I thought we were already in, but it just didn't feel right with all of the possible 2 loss teams. At the end of it all, there are only 4 possible 2 loss teams. WMU, Ohio, winner of Miami/UB, and winner of Toledo/CMU. WMU would hold the #2 tie-breaker over all of those except the winner of Miami/UB.

The only two-loss scenario that seems to work for us is if Ohio were to beat Buffalo next week:

With Miami and Toledo, above Ohio based on record vs common conference opponents all played equal times (2-0).
With Toledo, below Miami based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5).
Above Toledo based on head-to-head record (1-0).

Well i hope we hang onto this now, i just got given suite tickets for the MACC from work, lol

So I might have misinterpreted rule tiebreaker 2.

An example of if we lose to EMU, and Toledo and Buffalo win out.

I guess the question is what does,

Quote:2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that
defeated each of the other tied teams advances.

mean?

All of the teams (WMU UB UT) didn't play each other, so that means this clause is in effect.

My original interpretation was that because we beat Toledo we would win the tiebreaker because we faced them already, knocking them out. But upon reading it again the word each likely means we would have needed to defeat BOTH Toledo and Buffalo, with those two not facing each other for this clause to be in effect. If that is true, then 2 doesn't decide anything and we need to go to common opponents and we lose that matchup. Because our win against Toledo doesn't matter in any of these comparisons. W.T.F.

edits, upon edits:
Tiebreakers are dumb. Just beat Eastern.

(11-19-2025 06:07 PM)WesternDave Wrote:  So I might have misinterpreted rule tiebreaker 2.

An example of if we lose to EMU, and Toledo and Buffalo win out.

I guess the question is what does,

Quote:2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that
defeated each of the other tied teams advances.

mean?

All of the teams (WMU UB UT) didn't play each other, so that means this clause is in effect.

My original interpretation was that because we beat Toledo we would win the tiebreaker because we faced them already, knocking them out. But upon reading it again the word each likely means we would have needed to defeat BOTH Toledo and Buffalo, with those two not facing each other for this clause to be in effect. If that is true, then 2 doesn't decide anything and we need to go to common opponents and we lose that matchup. Because our win against Toledo doesn't matter in any of these comparisons. W.T.F.

edits, upon edits:
Tiebreakers are dumb. Just beat Eastern.

That one confused me too. But my main question is: If you’re figuring out both the 1 and 2 spots, shouldn’t it go like, 4 teams are tied. Go down the tiebreaker list. Winner is #1. Now you go back to the top with the remaining three teams and tiebreak again. This seems most fair, otherwise you may end up with a team in that lost H2H to both of the teams behind them (and wouldn’t have made it in a three way tie, which makes no sense).

If that is the case, it seems like WMU is already in. They could theoretically lose tiebreakers to UB and Miami, but they can’t both finish 6-2. WMU beat everyone else.

It'd be nice if a statistician at the MAC office would release scenarios after tonight's games. And related to AFLAGWA's point, it feels like those rules were created for "a" champion, not necessarily a pair of teams.