Well, Trump greenlit the hit on Iran

One of those ‘I won’t know how I feel about it until I see what happens’ things. If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice

Lots of deception…. Agree with it or not, it does seem to be well planned…. Probably for a decade or more…. I hope they really got it…. Like battling cancer. I think the key here was the lack of meaningful ‘pushback’ from anyone else in the region.

I hope we don’t get in to nation building, but obviously we can’t have their military, in deep cahoots with the religious zealots, so not a good alternative. There has been talk about the return of the Shah, and that Iranians really want to put Sharia law behind them….. but that of course remains to be seen

I wonder if any of our recent ‘friends’ in the Middle East will be willing to take the lead so that we can step back completely.

I guess we will see what happens ‘tonight’, which I guess means tomorrow afternoon or so here?


A few, especially leaders within the Democrat party already calling for impeachment…. As if this is the first time a President has dropped tons of bombs without Congressional approval. Sorry…. Just ridiculous. If someone wants to feel this is wrong, that’s fine… I get that and can’t say I 100% disagree…. But I can’t remember how many times I. My life people have made this argument from both sides.

(06-21-2025 09:04 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  Well, Trump greenlit the hit on Iran

One of those ‘I won’t know how I feel about it until I see what happens’ things. If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice

Lots of deception…. Agree with it or not, it does seem to be well planned…. Probably for a decade or more…. I hope they really got it…. Like battling cancer. I think the key here was the lack of meaningful ‘pushback’ from anyone else in the region.

I hope we don’t get in to nation building, but obviously we can’t have their military, in deep cahoots with the religious zealots, so not a good alternative. There has been talk about the return of the Shah, and that Iranians really want to put Sharia law behind them….. but that of course remains to be seen

I wonder if any of our recent ‘friends’ in the Middle East will be willing to take the lead so that we can step back completely.

I guess we will see what happens ‘tonight’, which I guess means tomorrow afternoon or so here?


A few, especially leaders within the Democrat party already calling for impeachment…. As if this is the first time a President has dropped tons of bombs without Congressional approval. Sorry…. Just ridiculous. If someone wants to feel this is wrong, that’s fine… I get that and can’t say I 100% disagree…. But I can’t remember how many times I. My life people have made this argument from both sides.

I have been watching MSNBC on this, and their stance seems to be "what a horrible thing he did”(hosts), and “good thing he did it"(guests).

(06-21-2025 11:43 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  I have been watching MSNBC on this, and their stance seems to be "what a horrible thing he did”(hosts), and “good thing he did it"(guests).

While some of that is to be expected... as in honest people can disagree on what the appropriate response to things can be... and SOME people (though I obviously disagree with them) are staunchly anti-violence....

The idea presented by some that this is somehow a violation of the office is just more of the same reason why Democrats lost the last election.... another example of 'chicken little' fatigue. I dont expect anyone on here to do this.... but if they expect to win elections in the future, they should seek to marginalize those voices in their party and focus on honest policy disagreements.

In terms of 'clear missions of singular purpose' I don't think there are many better examples of such a mission... and in part because I suspect this was planned over many years... it DOES seem to have been about as effective as we could possibly imagine... and I DO think that there is some ACTUAL 'shock and awe' globally that we were able to execute this so cleanly and keep it so quiet.... AND put on such a demonstration of global reach to the 'bad actors' of the world. The military should be proud.

Now comes the important part... and the first reactions are to be expected.

Trump recalled the assets and immediately started speaking of peace... Iran 'rattles the sabre' and honestly, looks like a kitten vs a lion.... and that's just vis a vis Israel, much less us.... and 'what they do next' is the most important things. I don't know if our recent meetings with UAE et al was part of this, but they have been thankfully quiet... and both we and the Israeli's have dampened the ability of their formal proxies to engage.... the UK has spoken a lot about actual 'sleeper cells' in their country... and we have spoken of it as well. There are, no doubt, those who would seek to assist 'bad' Iran in this country....but there are also likely millions of their brothers who would seek to assist GOOD Iran here as well.

Fingers crossed

(06-22-2025 09:55 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(06-21-2025 11:43 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  I have been watching MSNBC on this, and their stance seems to be "what a horrible thing he did”(hosts), and “good thing he did it"(guests).

While some of that is to be expected... as in honest people can disagree on what the appropriate response to things can be... and SOME people (though I obviously disagree with them) are staunchly anti-violence....

The idea presented by some that this is somehow a violation of the office is just more of the same reason why Democrats lost the last election.... another example of 'chicken little' fatigue. I dont expect anyone on here to do this.... but if they expect to win elections in the future, they should seek to marginalize those voices in their party and focus on honest policy disagreements.

In terms of 'clear missions of singular purpose' I don't think there are many better examples of such a mission... and in part because I suspect this was planned over many years... it DOES seem to have been about as effective as we could possibly imagine... and I DO think that there is some ACTUAL 'shock and awe' globally that we were able to execute this so cleanly and keep it so quiet.... AND put on such a demonstration of global reach to the 'bad actors' of the world. The military should be proud.

Now comes the important part... and the first reactions are to be expected.

Trump recalled the assets and immediately started speaking of peace... Iran 'rattles the sabre' and honestly, looks like a kitten vs a lion.... and that's just vis a vis Israel, much less us.... and 'what they do next' is the most important things. I don't know if our recent meetings with UAE et al was part of this, but they have been thankfully quiet... and both we and the Israeli's have dampened the ability of their formal proxies to engage.... the UK has spoken a lot about actual 'sleeper cells' in their country... and we have spoken of it as well. There are, no doubt, those who would seek to assist 'bad' Iran in this country....but there are also likely millions of their brothers who would seek to assist GOOD Iran here as well.

Fingers crossed

I expect the bluebirds to find fault with this action, and frankly expect that from anybody and everybody who opposed Trump before.

Personally, I DO feel safer with Iran's teeth pulled. The intifada that some on the left so happily endorse would never be confined to just Israel. There is no "one and done' with militant Islam.

(06-22-2025 10:40 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  There is no "one and done' with militant Islam.

True... especially when some of them LITERALLY think that destroying the US and/or Israel is what brings about the return of the Messiah... I mean imagine if this were what modern Christians believed... that destroying Islam would bring about the second coming of Christ... and 'dying' in pursuit of that (something oddly the leaders never seem to choose to do) brings you greater blessings in heaven,,,,

That said, much like with racists and religious zealots in this country... they can be marginalized and rendered mostly moot,,, literally a toothless tiger... if they don't have a wealthy and motivated sponsor.

Ok. I heard a funny one. I know this is serious, but we can all use a laugh sometimes.


We didn’t bomb Iran…. We just had a mostly peaceful nuclear protest.

(06-22-2025 08:29 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  Ok. I heard a funny one. I know this is serious, but we can all use a laugh sometimes.


We didn’t bomb Iran…. We just had a mostly peaceful nuclear protest.

Strait of Hormuz

“Iran has a lot to lose and very little, if anything, to gain by attempting to close the Strait,” Hari said. “Iran cannot afford to turn its oil-producing neighbors, who have been neutral or even sympathetic towards the Islamic Republic as it faced Israeli and US attacks, into enemies, any more than trigger the ire of its main crude market, China.”

(06-23-2025 12:47 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Strait of Hormuz

“Iran has a lot to lose and very little, if anything, to gain by attempting to close the Strait,” Hari said. “Iran cannot afford to turn its oil-producing neighbors, who have been neutral or even sympathetic towards the Islamic Republic as it faced Israeli and US attacks, into enemies, any more than trigger the ire of its main crude market, China.”

Unbelievably... Oil is actually DOWN.... reflecting perhaps the reduction of the risk premium in oil as a result of a CLEAR decline in the power and reach of Iran.

Total class, as always. Congrats, Donakd!



Thank you for your attention to this matter.

(06-23-2025 02:07 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(06-23-2025 12:47 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Strait of Hormuz

“Iran has a lot to lose and very little, if anything, to gain by attempting to close the Strait,” Hari said. “Iran cannot afford to turn its oil-producing neighbors, who have been neutral or even sympathetic towards the Islamic Republic as it faced Israeli and US attacks, into enemies, any more than trigger the ire of its main crude market, China.”

Unbelievably... Oil is actually DOWN.... reflecting perhaps the reduction of the risk premium in oil as a result of a CLEAR decline in the power and reach of Iran.

The most risk-adverse group in the US are investors, but today was business as usual on Wall St, with all the indices up nearly 1%.

Julian Epstein

Lefties gonna hate this, but what else are haters gonna do but hate?

Van Jones

My gut is that Israel got what they wanted. And trump provided it for them.

There is no way that Israel could have affected removal of at least two of the facilities by air. And no pragmatic way of putting their forces in place on the ground to do it.

And they did the 85% removal of what they could, and accordingly performed the fait accompli -- they presented a stark option to the United States: We started it, its a shitshow, and only big brother can supply the dessert at the end.

The options left at that point -- neither are good. Complete it because your little cousin started the fight, or walk away.

Im split on this. Something has finally put the kibosh of Iranian nuclear drive for a decade. But, it comes across to me as we got played to supply the ending act.

And I dont know how exactly this will play in the ME. Luckily, most players there hate Iran as much as the Israelis -- mainly due to Iranian instigation of Shia / Sunni violence, and Iranian instigation across a wide swath of the ME (let alone the world).

I never expected the US and Iran to become good friends, let alone less than snarling jackasses with one another in my lifetime. Iran is the real life international analogue to the proverbial illegal immigrant gangbanger that Trump likes to talk about --- in that respect no one gets bent out of shape when a real MS-13 dude gets clobbered in life -- and in that respect I dont hold much sympathy for the Iranian regime.

I will wait to ascertain the actual value of the move on future events. Too many moving pieces. But honestly, there is a default path for me that this is something thatTrump did correctly, even if he might have been played by the Israels like a violin to do this.

The biggest downside Iranian action is one that they simply will not do -- close Hormuz. Lucky for us that close to 65% of all oil that China brings in is through Iranian sources or transits the Strait of Hormuz. That is a result that China will not allow to happen, nor allow to be threatened.

Kamala

(06-23-2025 05:31 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(06-23-2025 02:07 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(06-23-2025 12:47 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Strait of Hormuz

“Iran has a lot to lose and very little, if anything, to gain by attempting to close the Strait,” Hari said. “Iran cannot afford to turn its oil-producing neighbors, who have been neutral or even sympathetic towards the Islamic Republic as it faced Israeli and US attacks, into enemies, any more than trigger the ire of its main crude market, China.”

Unbelievably... Oil is actually DOWN.... reflecting perhaps the reduction of the risk premium in oil as a result of a CLEAR decline in the power and reach of Iran.

The most risk-adverse group in the US are investors, but today was business as usual on Wall St, with all the indices up nearly 1%.

Maybe this is why

(06-23-2025 06:36 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(06-23-2025 05:31 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(06-23-2025 02:07 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(06-23-2025 12:47 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Strait of Hormuz

“Iran has a lot to lose and very little, if anything, to gain by attempting to close the Strait,” Hari said. “Iran cannot afford to turn its oil-producing neighbors, who have been neutral or even sympathetic towards the Islamic Republic as it faced Israeli and US attacks, into enemies, any more than trigger the ire of its main crude market, China.”

Unbelievably... Oil is actually DOWN.... reflecting perhaps the reduction of the risk premium in oil as a result of a CLEAR decline in the power and reach of Iran.

The most risk-adverse group in the US are investors, but today was business as usual on Wall St, with all the indices up nearly 1%.

Maybe this is why

or this

ICE nabs 11 Iranians including suspected terrorists

I sure hope the ICE agents were not wearing masks - that would be horrible and a violation of terrorist rights.

(06-23-2025 05:44 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  My gut is that Israel got what they wanted. And trump provided it for them.

There is no way that Israel could have affected removal of at least two of the facilities by air. And no pragmatic way of putting their forces in place on the ground to do it.

And they did the 85% removal of what they could, and accordingly performed the fait accompli -- they presented a stark option to the United States: We started it, its a shitshow, and only big brother can supply the dessert at the end.

The options left at that point -- neither are good. Complete it because your little cousin started the fight, or walk away.

Im split on this. Something has finally put the kibosh of Iranian nuclear drive for a decade. But, it comes across to me as we got played to supply the ending act.

And I dont know how exactly this will play in the ME. Luckily, most players there hate Iran as much as the Israelis -- mainly due to Iranian instigation of Shia / Sunni violence, and Iranian instigation across a wide swath of the ME (let alone the world).

I never expected the US and Iran to become good friends, let alone less than snarling jackasses with one another in my lifetime. Iran is the real life international analogue to the proverbial illegal immigrant gangbanger that Trump likes to talk about --- in that respect no one gets bent out of shape when a real MS-13 dude gets clobbered in life -- and in that respect I dont hold much sympathy for the Iranian regime.

I will wait to ascertain the actual value of the move on future events. Too many moving pieces. But honestly, there is a default path for me that this is something thatTrump did correctly, even if he might have been played by the Israels like a violin to do this.

The biggest downside Iranian action is one that they simply will not do -- close Hormuz. Lucky for us that close to 65% of all oil that China brings in is through Iranian sources or transits the Strait of Hormuz. That is a result that China will not allow to happen, nor allow to be threatened.

I think it very notable the silence from all parts of the middle east, China and Russia. While I understand your concerns about 'big brother', that IS in fact the reality of the situation. NO other nation on the planet could have done what we did... which means anyone else would have had to use likely ground forces.... and I think it would have been much harder for them to remain silent if there had been boots on the ground trying to 'occupy a base'.

At its core, we have a religious disagreement where the elimination of Israel is seen by some to be the literal way to bring about the return of the Messiah.... and death in pursuit of that brings you rewards in Heaven. That belief is not constrained by geography.... (and of course, the enemy of my enemy is my friend can also play a part) and challenges to those actions are seen as challenges to that faith. Regime change... whether it be to a more secular regime, or just a decisive change in the minds of the current leadership to not see the path to heaven as being through the destruction of Israel MUST happen.... but THAT aspect cannot be lead by us. It MUST be lead by Iranians or at worst, other Muslims.

Frankly, I don't see how the Ayatolla could possibly 'moderate' his stance... and I don't see how other Muslims could convince him to. I think the best we could hope for is to remove their political power to 'bring about' the end of Israel, while still waiting on its 'eventuality'. Surely they can be convinced that God doesn't need our help?? The Shah, or another more moderate Muslim caliphate may be our best first hope.

I think when you look at the compendium of events... from Hamas attacking Israel and Israel mostly wiping them out... to us striking the Houthies... to the recent high praise visits to UAE etc... to the confrontations with both Russia (Ukraine) and China (Tarriffs)... to the NATO increases in funding... I think it hard to argue that there has been a 'better' time to do this in the decades that we've all been talking about this.... and I also think that our power as a nation (and the ability to project it) was put on full and undeniable display. Even if we didn't 'totally' obliterate their nuclear capabilities, we certainly raised the cost of anyone else seeking to 'hide' such activities by a substantial amount.

No, I don't think this is the 4d chess that some Trumpists will apply... that he somehow knew all of this would happen and planned it... but I DO think that he listened to the right people and made the right call here... at least 'so far'. I think his immediate calls for cessation and even his four letter tirade in response to the tit for tat that continued was helpful, whether he planned it or not. He spoke the truth. These guys have been at it for so long, they don't know how NOT to provoke the other... too much investment in 'getting in the last punch'... which is not something that a TRULY powerful country need do.

Iran protests

Hard to believe there are pro-Iran protests in the USA. But I guess some people will seize any reason to be anti-Trump.