(10-20-2024 03:07 PM)green Wrote:  

(10-20-2024 02:41 PM)banker Wrote:  Polls are such BS. Absent a really major event there is no way public opinion shifts 6% on anything in a week. It’s just not how it works.

high quality polls are gold ...

SPOTIFY

Pollsters have to start being objective now. This is their business and if they are way off no one will look to them anymore. They were way off in 2020. Two in a row and they are toast.
The only swing state the polls got right was GA last time. They had Biden by 3 in Florida.
2020 State Polls

I saw something and quite honestly I haven't dug into it... I saw it maybe going through the Twitterverse this weekend (I'm only active during FB season to keep track of different takes) but there was a pollster saying that NJ and maybe even VA were in play.. Could you imagine... I doubt it'll happen.. Jersey has too many "blue" bloods there and VA is where alot of the DC folks live cause, believe it or not, it's cheaper and safer than Democratic run DC...

(10-22-2024 12:40 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(10-20-2024 03:07 PM)green Wrote:  

(10-20-2024 02:41 PM)banker Wrote:  Polls are such BS. Absent a really major event there is no way public opinion shifts 6% on anything in a week. It’s just not how it works.

high quality polls are gold ...

SPOTIFY

Pollsters have to start being objective now. This is their business and if they are way off no one will look to them anymore. They were way off in 2020. Two in a row and they are toast.
The only swing state the polls got right was GA last time. They had Biden by 3 in Florida.
2020 State Polls

plus ...
modeling shifts to likely voter ...

PRONOUNCED

(10-22-2024 12:40 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  The only swing state the polls got right was GA last time. They had Biden by 3 in Florida.
2020 State Polls

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/p...p-vs-biden

rcp nailed a couple states ...

NAIL ON THE HEAD

(10-22-2024 12:05 PM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  

(10-19-2024 08:30 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Mine's essentially the same, but I believe VA, NH, NM, and MN will all be within 3 points.

I'm gonna be honest.. I'm putting NH in the red column. The candidate running for the HofR seems to be REALLY liked (she just doesn't have as much money as the Democrats) by the general populace, and that's one that's going to "roll-up" to Trump.

Dang, reading Lily's entire post gave me goosebumps.

(10-22-2024 12:53 PM)gdunn Wrote:  I saw something and quite honestly I haven't dug into it... I saw it maybe going through the Twitterverse this weekend (I'm only active during FB season to keep track of different takes) but there was a pollster saying that NJ and maybe even VA were in play.. Could you imagine... I doubt it'll happen.. Jersey has too many "blue" bloods there and VA is where alot of the DC folks live cause, believe it or not, it's cheaper and safer than Democratic run DC...

I've heard the same about Virginia... IN fact, Kamla was either having to pull more workers or considering closing out some of her campaign offices... in because she was slipping some major numbers.

I can't say i've heard anything about Jersey...

Any word on the "blue dot" in Nebraska?

RCP moved it back into Tossup

If he wins that, Nevada and the 3 Sun Belt swing states, he can win without even cracking the Blue Wall

Quote:Lara Trump, our incredibly smart and talented Republican National Committee Co-Chair who did a fantastic job this week on the “Breakfast Club” program, will be joining Governor Glenn Youngkin at a rally in the Commonwealth of Virginia this Saturday to encourage everyone to VOTE EARLY. Glenn has given the people of Virginia great confidence their vote will be SECURE and ONLY ALL LEGAL VOTES WILL BE COUNTED. In fact, Virginia early vote is looking tremendous enough for the GOP that perhaps Lara is not the only TRUMP you will see in the Commonwealth before Election Day. Stay tuned! swampthevoteusa.com/

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump...5871034130

FULL FRONTAL LOBOTOMY

(10-22-2024 12:05 PM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  

(10-19-2024 08:30 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Mine's essentially the same, but I believe VA, NH, NM, and MN will all be within 3 points.

I'm gonna be honest.. I'm putting NH in the red column. The candidate running for the HofR seems to be REALLY liked (she just doesn't have as much money as the Democrats) by the general populace, and that's one that's going to "roll-up" to Trump.

You might be onto something.

(10-24-2024 11:10 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(10-22-2024 12:05 PM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  

(10-19-2024 08:30 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Mine's essentially the same, but I believe VA, NH, NM, and MN will all be within 3 points.

I'm gonna be honest.. I'm putting NH in the red column. The candidate running for the HofR seems to be REALLY liked (she just doesn't have as much money as the Democrats) by the general populace, and that's one that's going to "roll-up" to Trump.

You might be onto something.

lmmfao ... the yanks are having another 'clothespin momento' ... what their DA doesn't realize is they are the residue of the residual from decades of spoiled milk...

y'all biatches asked for shite ... now ya got eet!

(10-24-2024 11:10 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(10-22-2024 12:05 PM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  

(10-19-2024 08:30 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Mine's essentially the same, but I believe VA, NH, NM, and MN will all be within 3 points.

I'm gonna be honest.. I'm putting NH in the red column. The candidate running for the HofR seems to be REALLY liked (she just doesn't have as much money as the Democrats) by the general populace, and that's one that's going to "roll-up" to Trump.

You might be onto something.

oh wow, Emerson is saying the race is within the margin of error in NH. That state cuold easily flip if any of the democratic vote gets suppressed. (Voters dont go and vote) And it wont take many, A few thousand disgruntled democrats who dont show up to vote would be enough to swing that state.

Halperin confirms that NH, VA, MN, and NM are very active for Trump right now.

My no-tossup map

(10-25-2024 08:14 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Halperin confirms that NH, VA, MN, and NM are very active for Trump right now.

Could you imagine if Trump wins MN, something Reagan never did!!??

"I won Minnesota, you know the great Ronald Reagan never even won that state. Some would say that make as great as him."

(10-20-2024 02:56 PM)green Wrote:  

(10-20-2024 02:41 PM)banker Wrote:  Polls are such BS. Absent a really major event there is no way public opinion shifts 6% on anything in a week. It’s just not how it works.

late deciders break as deadline approaches ...

LEAN ON ME

https://twitter.com/Mark_Penn/status/184...9188871558

JOHNNY COME LATELY

Carville, the Louisiana loudmouth, has long said D +3 on popular is what it takes to win the Electoral College. Anything less is a loss.

And as he coined long ago: It's the economy stupid.

(10-19-2024 04:06 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(10-19-2024 08:18 AM)green Wrote:  

barring the unforeseen ...

YOU'LL SEE

I think Virginia still winds up in the Blue column when it’s all said and done.

But if it does go Red, I think the Omaha district does, too. And maybe New Hampshire and the 2 at-large votes for Maine.

https://twitter.com/LaCivitaC/status/185...6194194718

BYE BYE MISS AMERICAN PIE

I think Trump pushes close to 320 Electoral Votes and wins the popular vote by 3-5 million.

(10-29-2024 11:38 AM)oruvoice Wrote:  I think Trump pushes close to 320 Electoral Votes and wins the popular vote by 3-5 million.

If that happens I might take all the idiots off ignore just so I can taste their tears.

(10-29-2024 11:51 AM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  

(10-29-2024 11:38 AM)oruvoice Wrote:  I think Trump pushes close to 320 Electoral Votes and wins the popular vote by 3-5 million.

If that happens I might take all the idiots off ignore just so I can taste their tears.

Brave man, I wouldn't, it'll be like reading David St's posts. I might as well listen to an hour of Rep. Waters than read what the pseudo-Commies have to say...and I won't do either.