First cut in 4 years.

Aggressive.

The Fed must know it's going to be a rocky road ahead.

(09-18-2024 01:23 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Aggressive.

The Fed must know it's going to be a rocky road ahead.

He's got his fingers crossed Inflation doesn't come back to 3% this month. If it does, he's screwed.

(09-18-2024 01:27 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(09-18-2024 01:23 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Aggressive.

The Fed must know it's going to be a rocky road ahead.

He's got his fingers crossed Inflation doesn't come back to 3% this month. If it does, he's screwed.

Pfft...inflation around 3% is pretty much where they want it these days.

Monthly inflation rates Jan thru Aug 2024: 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.5

Kinda sketchy to drop the rates now since inflation is still a little higher than the 2.0 they typically shoot for.

(09-18-2024 01:33 PM)miko33 Wrote:  Monthly inflation rates Jan thru Aug 2024: 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.5

Kinda sketchy to drop the rates now since inflation is still a little higher than the 2.0 they typically shoot for.

They need to adjust their typical 2% for inflation.

(09-18-2024 01:29 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-18-2024 01:27 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(09-18-2024 01:23 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Aggressive.

The Fed must know it's going to be a rocky road ahead.

He's got his fingers crossed Inflation doesn't come back to 3% this month. If it does, he's screwed.

Pfft...inflation around 3% is pretty much where they want it these days.

They are convinced that inflation is headed to 2%.

(09-18-2024 01:33 PM)miko33 Wrote:  Monthly inflation rates Jan thru Aug 2024: 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.5

Kinda sketchy to drop the rates now since inflation is still a little higher than the 2.0 they typically shoot for.

And the August number hasn't been adjusted up yet.

(09-18-2024 01:35 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-18-2024 01:33 PM)miko33 Wrote:  Monthly inflation rates Jan thru Aug 2024: 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.5

Kinda sketchy to drop the rates now since inflation is still a little higher than the 2.0 they typically shoot for.

They need to adjust their typical 2% for inflation.

In your opinion, why? Because from what I see right now the typical methods of control - shrinkflation and "offering more product for higher prices" isn't as effective today vs the past. To me that's concerning.

In before, “RiGhT bEfOrE tHe ElEcTiOn, Of CoUrSe”

(09-18-2024 01:41 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(09-18-2024 01:35 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-18-2024 01:33 PM)miko33 Wrote:  Monthly inflation rates Jan thru Aug 2024: 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.5

Kinda sketchy to drop the rates now since inflation is still a little higher than the 2.0 they typically shoot for.

They need to adjust their typical 2% for inflation.

In your opinion, why? Because from what I see right now the typical methods of control - shrinkflation and "offering more product for higher prices" isn't as effective today vs the past. To me that's concerning.

I was kidding...the should have given it away.

The fed said the committee is "strongly committed to returning inflation back to its 2% objective."
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/18/fed-rate...ement.html

(09-18-2024 01:44 PM)Frank Grimes Wrote:  In before, “RiGhT bEfOrE tHe ElEcTiOn, Of CoUrSe”

You must have been around during the Nixon days. Caused the inflation of the 70s to save Nixon.

(09-18-2024 01:46 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-18-2024 01:41 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(09-18-2024 01:35 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-18-2024 01:33 PM)miko33 Wrote:  Monthly inflation rates Jan thru Aug 2024: 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.5

Kinda sketchy to drop the rates now since inflation is still a little higher than the 2.0 they typically shoot for.

They need to adjust their typical 2% for inflation.

In your opinion, why? Because from what I see right now the typical methods of control - shrinkflation and "offering more product for higher prices" isn't as effective today vs the past. To me that's concerning.

I was kidding...the should have given it away.

The fed said the committee is "strongly committed to returning inflation back to its 2% objective."
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/18/fed-rate...ement.html

I see you used an emoticon. My mind blanks them out typically so I guess when it comes to some forms of communication I'm "autistic"...LOL.

(09-18-2024 01:36 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(09-18-2024 01:29 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-18-2024 01:27 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(09-18-2024 01:23 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Aggressive.

The Fed must know it's going to be a rocky road ahead.

He's got his fingers crossed Inflation doesn't come back to 3% this month. If it does, he's screwed.

Pfft...inflation around 3% is pretty much where they want it these days.

They are convinced that inflation is headed to 2%.

Powell is on record his goal is 2%. 3% inflation is why it took them so long to lower it. The Fed is playing the "come" that September will be 2%. If it is higher than 2.5% or whatever August is adjusted to, they made a mistake. The Stock Market is worried the economy is headed for problems due to the .5 cut and already talking about two more cuts for October and December. What does the Fed know that we aren't being told?

(09-18-2024 02:21 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(09-18-2024 01:36 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  

(09-18-2024 01:29 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-18-2024 01:27 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(09-18-2024 01:23 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Aggressive.

The Fed must know it's going to be a rocky road ahead.

He's got his fingers crossed Inflation doesn't come back to 3% this month. If it does, he's screwed.

Pfft...inflation around 3% is pretty much where they want it these days.

They are convinced that inflation is headed to 2%.

Powell is on record his goal is 2%. 3% inflation is why it took them so long to lower it. The Fed is playing the "come" that September will be 2%. If it is higher than 2.5% or whatever August is adjusted to, they made a mistake. The Stock Market is worried the economy is headed for problems due to the .5 cut and already talking about two more cuts for October and December. What does the Fed know that we aren't being told?

IMHO...nothing. I think it's their attempt to keep the stock markets from tanking before the general election. That's my guess. Problem is inflation is not yet confirmed resloved so this may backfire. Fed funds rate is still high even after the cut, but...

(09-18-2024 02:21 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(09-18-2024 01:46 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-18-2024 01:41 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(09-18-2024 01:35 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-18-2024 01:33 PM)miko33 Wrote:  Monthly inflation rates Jan thru Aug 2024: 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.5

Kinda sketchy to drop the rates now since inflation is still a little higher than the 2.0 they typically shoot for.

They need to adjust their typical 2% for inflation.

In your opinion, why? Because from what I see right now the typical methods of control - shrinkflation and "offering more product for higher prices" isn't as effective today vs the past. To me that's concerning.

I was kidding...the should have given it away.

The fed said the committee is "strongly committed to returning inflation back to its 2% objective."
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/18/fed-rate...ement.html

I see you used an emoticon. My mind blanks them out typically so I guess when it comes to some forms of communication I'm "autistic"...LOL.

No worries!

The Fed (as always) waits too long for lagging indicators to catch up with what they want to see.

I use this analogy all the time. The economy is like driving on a icy road. When you start to skid, you steer violently in the opposite direction to stop the skidding, which then forces the car in the opposite direction to which you must overcorrect again. It takes a lot of violent left and right turning before you regain control.


I said this many times before, the fed should have started easing rates months ago - I believe it should have started a year ago. 25 BP every two or three meetings. Instead they are going to go blunt force trauma in three meetings and create more unnecessary instability.

The Fed ALWAYS creates the problems they are trying to fix - every single time.

(09-18-2024 01:23 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Aggressive.

The Fed must know it's going to be a rocky road ahead.

Wont be surprised if the recession gets back dated to a couple of months ago.

(09-18-2024 03:03 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-18-2024 01:23 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Aggressive.

The Fed must know it's going to be a rocky road ahead.

Wont be surprised if the recession gets back dated to a couple of months ago.

On what possible grounds? GDP going to get an unprecedented revision downward? Unemployment rate off by 5%?

What pray tell...other than "feels" could possibly lead you to this conclusion?