(09-17-2024 01:07 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(09-17-2024 12:32 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-17-2024 11:16 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Thats the national vote. SIlvers EC predictor says Trump is up 50 points over Kamala, 75-25.

Got a link for that?

You didn't conflate the following into that, did you?

Quote:Last update: 12:15 p.m., Tuesday, September 17. Kamala Harris’s lead in national polls is up to 2.9 points, improved from 2.2 points before last week’s debate. There’s been a high volume of national polling, so this is pretty clearly some sort of debate bounce.

However, we remain lacking in high-quality state polling. The model makes inferences in the states based on national poll trends, but can err toward conservatism until it gets more state data. Harris did get a Suffolk poll showing her +3 in Pennsylvania, but also another one showing her down 2 points there. Harris has a 2-in-3 chance of winning the popular vote, but there’s also almost a 25 percent chance that she wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College, meaning that the election is a toss-up.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver...olls-model

nope

Okay...is there a link then that is not behind a paywall? His percentage chance for trump was like in the 60's last week and all his polling now is showing that Harris has improved in many places.

19 pages to tell us all about Harris’ “collapse” when the polls are trending in the opposite direction of collapse.

Its part of the 'model shows' try to "face" the other side.

I'm listening to Kamala's interview with the "Black Journalist". Easy to see why she doesn't do interviews. The answer to EVERY question involves medical care. Rambling. They're having to interrupt her.

(09-17-2024 01:45 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  I'm listening to Kamala's interview with the "Black Journalist". Easy to see why she doesn't do interviews. The answer to EVERY question involves medical care. Rambling. They're having to interrupt her.

She’s a low IQ fool trying to defend this economy. Trump can’t get back in the White House soon enough

(09-17-2024 01:33 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  19 pages to tell us all about Harris’ “collapse” when the polls are trending in the opposite direction of collapse.

betting markets disagree.

Vote for the person they are trying to kill, not for.the person who is an accomplice in the attempt to kill the opponent.

Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk

No one (at least 99%) is on the fence about voting for Harris and I really believe that. Those on the fence are still making up their mind on if they can vote for Trump....

which doesn't bold well for the VP because I would think at this point those people are either voting Trump or 3rd party, or sitting home. Not for the VP. If the polls tighten up I think even those that maybe sitting it out or thought about 3rd party just because they don't like Trump the man...

would then hold their nose and vote Trump before taking the chance they are going to lose 20% to 25% of their paycheck if the VP wins.

That is the only way it makes sense people are still undecided

(09-17-2024 06:03 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(09-17-2024 01:33 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  19 pages to tell us all about Harris’ “collapse” when the polls are trending in the opposite direction of collapse.

betting markets disagree.

Betting markets? , do they care who wins or is it just about getting the most money laid down?

(09-17-2024 01:33 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  19 pages to tell us all about Harris’ “collapse” when the polls are trending in the opposite direction of collapse.

bret bair ...
on tonight's special report ...
polls underestimate trump by 2% ...

U TURN

They will pshit themselves in late October when the pollsters have to start trying to get it right. Trump being within the MOE and ahead in some national polls in mid September has them desperate. Harris won't get more popular. She will get exposed.

(09-17-2024 06:59 PM)green Wrote:  

(09-17-2024 01:33 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  19 pages to tell us all about Harris’ “collapse” when the polls are trending in the opposite direction of collapse.

bret bair ...
on tonight's special report ...
polls underestimate trump by 2% ...

U TURN

Polls are based on likely voters. Likely voters have made their choice. Unlikely/new voters are polling 80%-20% Harris over Trump. Bret is going to tell you what you want to hear.

(09-17-2024 08:20 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  

(09-17-2024 06:59 PM)green Wrote:  

(09-17-2024 01:33 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  19 pages to tell us all about Harris’ “collapse” when the polls are trending in the opposite direction of collapse.

bret bair ...
on tonight's special report ...
polls underestimate trump by 2% ...

U TURN

Polls are based on likely voters. Likely voters have made their choice. Unlikely/new voters are polling 80%-20% Harris over Trump. Bret is going to tell you what you want to hear.

Thats not what the new voter registration numbers are showing.

(09-17-2024 07:36 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  They will pshit themselves in late October when the pollsters have to start trying to get it right. Trump being within the MOE and ahead in some national polls in mid September has them desperate. Harris won't get more popular. She will get exposed.

Kind of hard to get traction when your campaign can be summed up as "They are eating the cats..... eating the dogs..... they are eating the pets".

And follow up when challenged as "Thats what they said on TV".

(09-17-2024 01:16 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-17-2024 01:07 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(09-17-2024 12:32 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(09-17-2024 11:16 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Thats the national vote. SIlvers EC predictor says Trump is up 50 points over Kamala, 75-25.

Got a link for that?

You didn't conflate the following into that, did you?

Quote:Last update: 12:15 p.m., Tuesday, September 17. Kamala Harris’s lead in national polls is up to 2.9 points, improved from 2.2 points before last week’s debate. There’s been a high volume of national polling, so this is pretty clearly some sort of debate bounce.

However, we remain lacking in high-quality state polling. The model makes inferences in the states based on national poll trends, but can err toward conservatism until it gets more state data. Harris did get a Suffolk poll showing her +3 in Pennsylvania, but also another one showing her down 2 points there. Harris has a 2-in-3 chance of winning the popular vote, but there’s also almost a 25 percent chance that she wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College, meaning that the election is a toss-up.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver...olls-model

nope

Okay...is there a link then that is not behind a paywall? His percentage chance for trump was like in the 60's last week and all his polling now is showing that Harris has improved in many places.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-fi...st-1954958

They said

Quote:Former President Donald Trump dropped below a 40 percent chance of an election victory for the first time on Tuesday, according to a forecast by a major polling aggregator.

FiveThirtyEight's election forecast gave the Republican candidate a 39 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, after a slate of strong polling for Vice President Kamala Harris boosted her odds to greater than 60 percent.

…

Vs He said

Quote:Nate Silver, who originally founded FiveThirtyEight before it was bought by ABC News, had a more optimistic view for Trump. His model, run via his blog Silver Bulletin, had almost the exact reverse odds for the election, putting Trump at 60 percent and Harris at 38 percent

(09-17-2024 06:03 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(09-17-2024 01:33 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  19 pages to tell us all about Harris’ “collapse” when the polls are trending in the opposite direction of collapse.

betting markets disagree.

PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE

Nevada and Arizona will be red too.

287 and counting

Quote:A data scientist from Northwestern University has gained attention for his unconventional election predictions by using betting markets rather than traditional polls.

Thomas Miller accurately forecast the 2020 presidential election. Now, he's back with a new forecast: that Vice President Kamala Harris will win against donald trump with a landslide.

"Polls are a snapshot of the past," Miller told Fortune. "The odds on betting sites are a map of the future."

Miller believes that because polls typically survey small samples of the population and take several days to publish results, they don't capture shifting voter sentiments accurately.

He developed a model that converted betting prices into the popular vote and Electoral College projections. His predictions were strikingly accurate: he missed President Joe Biden's Electoral College count by 12 votes, and in Georgia's Senate races, he was nearly exact, predicting both Democratic victories.

As of mid-September, PredictIt showed Harris with a 55% chance of winning, which Miller interpreted as 55% of the popular vote, translating into a significant lead in the Electoral College.

Miller's analysis revealed that Harris has surged in recent months. In June, trump was leading, with nearly 400 electoral votes according to betting market predictions. However, by late August, after Biden withdrew and Harris secured the nomination, the odds shifted dramatically.

By early September, Harris had a strong lead, and a debate on September 10, followed by an endorsement from Taylor Swift, saw Harris' projected Electoral vote count jump to more than 400, indicating a potential landslide.

"If these numbers hold, trump could face a loss similar to Barry Goldwater's defeat by Lyndon Johnson in 1964," Miller told entertainment news website Vulture. His model suggested Harris would not only win swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania ,but also potentially flip traditionally Republican states.

Data Scientist's Betting-Odds Model Predicts Kamala Harris Landslide

Oops.

Most of these models will hedge at the end. Thats why using them as a snapshot in time to say someone is collapsing or losing momentum is pointless.

Most of the polls used in modeling use such differ methodology that’s its using apples to oranges in many cases.

(09-18-2024 09:49 AM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  Most of these models will hedge at the end. Thats why using them as a snapshot in time to say someone is collapsing or losing momentum is pointless.

Most of the polls used in modeling use such differ methodology that’s its using apples to oranges in many cases.

There are literally only 51 polls that matter at all, and zero models.

I think a compendium of polls is marginally valuable over time to show larger trends. Aside from that, pretty every model is pointless in nature, and every poll (aside from the 51 noted above) is fairly devoid of real use. Except as fodder in pre-election attempts at “look at this —- FACE!”.