Kamala Kollapse Konfirmed

Keep in mind that models are generating a likelihood of a win, not the vote percentages. For example, Trump having a 64% to 36% percent chance to win the state of PA is just that; the odds he wins the state. It is not predicting the vote totals to be 64% to Trump to 36% of the vote to Harris. Once there is some separation in vote percentages, the odds of winning the state go up significantly.

Nate keeps saying his model will "correct" itself soon because he built in a poll suppressor for each candidate after each convention to try to negate any poll response bias. The issue for Nates model is that A) Harris never got a bounce and B) Trump is winning in practically all of the swing states. So, if Nate is to be trusted (and I dont) his model should be exiting out of the post convention manipulation. But we are over 2 weeks out from the DNC, and his model continues to climb for Trump.

Today he has Trump +28 in the likelihood to win the election.

lulz, dem donors are getting big mad about all of this.

I wonder how easy it would be to change out a VP candidate at this point?

Not surprising. It was always a matter of time with Harris. The better the American voters get to know Kamala---the less they like her. Can you really blame 'em?

Too late to change out again. Ballots are being reprinted to go out. I think some may have gone out Friday.

Trumps has done a good job lately of focusing on the issues like the economy and illegal immigration. Stay above the fray. Let his underlings counter the Dem's personal attacks using the ample ammo available against Harris.

(09-08-2024 03:39 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Trumps has done a good job lately of focusing on the issues like the economy and illegal immigration. Stay above the fray. Let his underlings counter the Dem's personal attacks using the ample ammo available against Harris.

This will be the story of the 2024 election, IF Trump can keep it going through Nov. 5.

This coming Tuesday’s debate (assuming Kamala Kameleon does not contract covid between now and Tuesday) will be a major test for Trump. Kamala is pretty much beside the point. She’s a complete joke, and a nasty one at that.

It’s the moderators who are a threat. They will be doing their utmost to draw out Donald’s inner demons - - ego, recklessness and bullying. If they succeed, Kamala and Uncle Tampon both disappear to the basement and it will become a proxy campaign run by Big Media and Big Tech.

If (pray so) Trump manages to keep his cool, then it will be a carnival watching the Democrats totally melt down over the next two months. The most critical challenge then will be to keep Donald behind bullet-proof glass.

EDIT: I see that 3A has already made this same point - - and better than I - - in another thread: https://csnbbs.com/thread-996620.html (Post #2)

(09-08-2024 05:25 PM)AdoptedMonarch Wrote:  

(09-08-2024 03:39 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Trumps has done a good job lately of focusing on the issues like the economy and illegal immigration. Stay above the fray. Let his underlings counter the Dem's personal attacks using the ample ammo available against Harris.

This will be the story of the 2024 election, if Trump can keep it going through Nov. 5.

This coming Tuesday’s debate (assuming Kamala Kameleon does not contract covid between now and Tuesday) will be a major test for Trump. Kamala is pretty ugh beside the point. She’s a complete joke, and a pretty nasty owner at that.

It’s the moderators who are a threat. They will be doing their utmost to draw out Donald’s inner demons - - ego, recklessness and bullying. If they succeed, Kamala and Uncle Tampon both disappear to the basement and it will become a proxy campaign run by Big Media and Big Tech.

If (pray so) Trump manages to keep his cool, then it will be a carnival watching the Democrats totally melt down over the next two months. The most critical challenge then will be to keep Donald behind bullet-proof glass.

EDIT: I see that 3A has already made this same point - - and better than I - - in another thread: https://csnbbs.com/thread-996620.html (Post #2)

All Trump needs to do is repeat his performance on June 27th when he debated Biden. If I'm him, I'm teling myself, "do not give her the 'I'm speaking!' moment she's looking for." (And if it does happen, I hope he has a quick quip like "You haven't said anything of substance yet." ready for her. lol)

Sounds like the Harris campaign and Dillon had the polls collapse too quickly, and now they have an "emperor has no clothes" moment. Democrats love the bad polls that skew way left because they fundraise off of them. Normally these polls dont try to correct until way late in the game (and even then the bad polls like NYT are still way off.)

But this cycle is different. There are old-time democrats with insight into the internal polls that knew what Dillon and the Harris campaign where selling to big donors was fake. The last two weeks, they have been getting rattled. But when a NYT poll, which has always leaned far fqar left, shows your candidate down by 2 nationally and losing in practically every swing state, they feel like they are getting bamboozled like they did in 2016. IN 2016 the word was Hillary had it in the bag for months. The truth is she never had it in the bag. The Comey stuff didnt impact it. She literally had never had it in the bag from July 4th on. But she raised an ass-load of money based upon "having it in the bag."

bwahahahahahahahahaha

I dont recall them having to write "explainer" articles when the polls showed Harris up.

Oooh, AM, the thought of a Covid excuse to postpone / stop this never crossed my mind.

That would be an easy out for her.

(09-09-2024 09:40 AM)Eldonabe Wrote:  Oooh, AM, the thought of a Covid excuse to postpone / stop this never crossed my mind.

That would be an easy out for her.

I think that would kill her candidacy with undecided voters.

(09-08-2024 05:43 PM)GeminiCoog Wrote:  

(09-08-2024 05:25 PM)AdoptedMonarch Wrote:  

(09-08-2024 03:39 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  Trumps has done a good job lately of focusing on the issues like the economy and illegal immigration. Stay above the fray. Let his underlings counter the Dem's personal attacks using the ample ammo available against Harris.

This will be the story of the 2024 election, if Trump can keep it going through Nov. 5.

This coming Tuesday’s debate (assuming Kamala Kameleon does not contract covid between now and Tuesday) will be a major test for Trump. Kamala is pretty ugh beside the point. She’s a complete joke, and a pretty nasty owner at that.

It’s the moderators who are a threat. They will be doing their utmost to draw out Donald’s inner demons - - ego, recklessness and bullying. If they succeed, Kamala and Uncle Tampon both disappear to the basement and it will become a proxy campaign run by Big Media and Big Tech.

If (pray so) Trump manages to keep his cool, then it will be a carnival watching the Democrats totally melt down over the next two months. The most critical challenge then will be to keep Donald behind bullet-proof glass.

EDIT: I see that 3A has already made this same point - - and better than I - - in another thread: https://csnbbs.com/thread-996620.html (Post #2)

All Trump needs to do is repeat his performance on June 27th when he debated Biden. If I'm him, I'm teling myself, "do not give her the 'I'm speaking!' moment she's looking for." (And if it does happen, I hope he has a quick quip like "You haven't said anything of substance yet." ready for her. lol)

Beat her to the punch on the “I’m speaking” by saying it to the 1st moderator who interrupts him. He can already mock her for flip flopping to his positions on certain issues. If she tries the “I’m speaking” after he says it, call her out on it too. She is a low IQ idiot with nothing successful to run on. “I’m speaking here” is about the only big moment she could have. Take it away from her early in the debate.

(09-09-2024 09:44 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-09-2024 09:40 AM)Eldonabe Wrote:  Oooh, AM, the thought of a Covid excuse to postpone / stop this never crossed my mind.

That would be an easy out for her.

I think that would kill her candidacy with undecided voters.

This.

Like the boy who cried wolf, we’re now at the point where most people wouldn’t believe it, even if it was true.

(09-09-2024 10:10 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(09-09-2024 09:44 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-09-2024 09:40 AM)Eldonabe Wrote:  Oooh, AM, the thought of a Covid excuse to postpone / stop this never crossed my mind.

That would be an easy out for her.

I think that would kill her candidacy with undecided voters.

This.

Like the boy who cried wolf, we’re now at the point where most people wouldn’t believe it, even if it was true.

I agree but there are no other ways out of this that are any better. This at least would be a plausible excuse that the Karen's and Ken's (and Tom's) out there would applaud her for "not putting lives in danger". There would be plenty of spin to go around.

She can stall long enough to get out of a debate altogether after that for a million different reasons.

I think she is stuck with this one. Back out now, and she loses whatever credibility she might have with undecided voters.

Sure, the loons will back her, but they're not the target audience, any more than "Trumplets" are.

Let me tell you a story about campaign signs in the area of PA I live.. I live in a very blue area..

For the 2020 election I saw tons of Biden/Harris signs and just as many Trump signs... Trump lost this county by about 400-500 votes if memory serves (no I'm not linking an article cause I don't want some person pinpointing where I live)...

Fast forward to this election... The Trumpers have their signs out... Some got new signs.. Some are using the 2020 signs with Pence marked through or with duct tape covering up Pence and Vance written in Sharpie...

When Biden was in the race I saw the same amount of the Biden Harris signs, again they were old signs.. When Biden dropped out several locals did the duct tape with some putting Shapiro on the sign... As of late those signs are gone and maybe a quarter of the signs now are for Harris Walz... What I have seen an uptick in are signs for Jill Stein... I have a route I drive everyday... It's this route where the Biden Harris signs disappeared and the Stein signs have appeared.. Even in the extremely blue area of the town, there's more Stein signs than Harris signs..

Is it a true measure of how the state will vote? I don't know, but I did the sign count in 2016 and PA went to Trump.. Did it again in 2020 and was perplexed that Trump lost... Time will tell..

^^ I think it's simply a function of the Harris/Walz campaign being so new, and not enough time for wide sign distribution.

(09-09-2024 11:21 AM)TripleA Wrote:  ^^ I think it's simply a function of the Harris/Walz campaign being so new, and not enough time for wide sign distribution.

Or maybe KH/TW just suck and less people like them.

(09-09-2024 11:26 AM)Eldonabe Wrote:  

(09-09-2024 11:21 AM)TripleA Wrote:  ^^ I think it's simply a function of the Harris/Walz campaign being so new, and not enough time for wide sign distribution.

Or maybe KH/TW just suck and less people like them.

Maybe, but a lack of time to produce signs would certainly play a factor, as well. One is not exclusive to the other.