https://twitter.com/RedEaglePatriot/stat...1193519403

IF NOTHING CHANGES

Filth vs non filth

Nothing has changed

They polled 50 more Democrats than Republicans and 85 more Democrats than Independents just to give the legacy media a 2% talking point.

(07-24-2024 03:45 PM)green Wrote:  

https://twitter.com/RedEaglePatriot/stat...1193519403

IF NOTHING CHANGES

In 2016 and 2020 all the polls missed by about 5 points. If all things are equal, Trump is currently up by 5-10 points.

She’s got 2-3 weeks and if it’s still looking like an easy Trump win, they either try to assassinate him again or call in Big Mike Obama at the convention.

Btw, their convention should be a 3 ring circus. You have a split party, all the side show looking freaks and weirdos that comprise a lot of their base, and as someone pointed out yesterday on local talk radio, Chicago is a city where the citizens are furious over the preferential treatment that illegal aliens get over them. Should make for good protests of the Border Czar

Biden
+7
Reuters/Ipsos
10/23 - 10/27 825 LV 3.9 52 42
Biden
+10
Reuters/Ipsos
10/16 - 10/20 949 LV 3.6 51 42
Biden
+9
Reuters/Ipsos
10/9 - 10/13 882 LV 3.8 51 41
Biden
+10
Reuters/Ipsos
10/2 - 10/6 882 LV 3.8 52 40
Biden
+12
Reuters/Ipsos
9/25 - 9/29 864 LV 3.8 51 42
Biden
+9
Reuters/Ipsos
9/18 - 9/22 889 LV 3.7 50 42
Biden
+8
Reuters/Ipsos
9/11 - 9/15 859 LV 3.8 50 41
Biden
+9
Reuters/Ipsos
9/3 - 9/8 823 LV 3.9 52 40
Biden
+12
Reuters/Ipsos
8/28 - 9/1 1089 RV 3.4 47 40
Biden
+7

HINDSIGHT IS 2020

Biden was completely incapable of recovering or changing anything, and it only would have gotten worse as his mental condition continued to rapidly decline and the GOP actually started attacking him full force on it post convention.

Copmala was the worst possible replacement candidate for tons of reasons, but it's at least conceivable she could change things over time. Unless Biden was going to turn into Benjamin Button and age rapidly in reverse he never could. I'd still bet money on Trump winning, but against Biden I'd have literally bet my house on it.

(07-24-2024 03:51 PM)oruvoice Wrote:  

(07-24-2024 03:45 PM)green Wrote:  

https://twitter.com/RedEaglePatriot/stat...1193519403

IF NOTHING CHANGES

In 2016 and 2020 all the polls missed by about 5 points. If all things are equal, Trump is currently up by 5-10 points.

That’s what all the Democrats know. Pollsters in the previous 2 campaigns always underestimated Trump support.

Forbes has Trump up 11.

I’ll say it again, any Republican running +1 or more nationally means electoral landslide and thus sweeping most swing states

"As a reminder, this is why ALL Reuters/Ipsos polls in 2016 were wrong: they oversampled Democrats by 4-6%."

Someone should tell Killery THAT'S what happened. She believed the Demon propaganda and it's too bad because she should know that they all lie for them. LOL

(07-24-2024 03:51 PM)oruvoice Wrote:  In 2016 and 2020 all the polls missed by about 1-3 5 points on average. If all things are equal, Trump is currently up by 5-10 points.

https://twitter.com/LeadingReport/status...9252513987

SACRIFICIAL LAMB

Harry is basically saying Trump is actually +5

(07-24-2024 03:48 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  They polled 50 more Democrats than Republicans and 85 more Democrats than Independents just to give the legacy media a 2% talking point.

It's actually worse than that. All polls pick and choose which states they use to sample independents.

The left leaning polls, which includes Reuters, regularly choose large states that lean blue. That skews it even more than just the raw numbers.

NPR is very leftwing biased, and they had Biden* up 2 to Trump. Now they show Trump up on Harris, so she went backwards in that poll.

From the sounds of some of the talking heads, including Carville who endorsed Cackles today, he didnt seem very upbeat about her chances.

(07-24-2024 04:21 PM)TripleA Wrote:  It's actually worse than that. All polls pick and choose which states they use to sample independents.

The left leaning polls, which includes Reuters, regularly choose large states that lean blue. That skews it even more than just the raw numbers.

That's a good point. They make the numbers look whatever way they want to fit the narrative.

(07-24-2024 04:05 PM)green Wrote:  

(07-24-2024 03:51 PM)oruvoice Wrote:  In 2016 and 2020 all the polls missed by about 1-3 5 points on average. If all things are equal, Trump is currently up by 5-10 points.

https://twitter.com/LeadingReport/status...9252513987

SACRIFICIAL LAMB

Actually it was closer to 5% in 2020. I say for every poll involving Trump you can add 2 points to get a better idea, because the "margin of error" ALWAYS favors Trump in reality.
2020 Polls were off.

Quote:According to the report, national polls of the presidential race conducted in the final two weeks of the election were off by an average of 4.5 percentage points, while the state polls were off by just over 5 points. Most of the error was in one direction: Looking at the vote margin, the national polls were too favorable to now-President Joe Biden by 3.9 points, and the state polls were 4.3 points too favorable for Biden.

Democrats bought the chit sammich and now they got to choke it down. The only question is how many will refuse to eat it?

(07-24-2024 04:44 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(07-24-2024 04:05 PM)green Wrote:  

(07-24-2024 03:51 PM)oruvoice Wrote:  In 2016 and 2020 all the polls missed by about 1-3 5 points on average. If all things are equal, Trump is currently up by 5-10 points.

https://twitter.com/LeadingReport/status...9252513987

SACRIFICIAL LAMB

Actually it was closer to 5% in 2020. I say for every poll involving Trump you can add 2 points to get a better idea, because the "margin of error" ALWAYS favors Trump in reality.
2020 Polls were off.

Quote:According to the report, national polls of the presidential race conducted in the final two weeks of the election were off by an average of 4.5 percentage points, while the state polls were off by just over 5 points. Most of the error was in one direction: Looking at the vote margin, the national polls were too favorable to now-President Joe Biden by 3.9 points, and the state polls were 4.3 points too favorable for Biden.

I used rcp final average for 2016 (+1.1) & 2020 (+2.7)
no doubt, trump overperforms polling ...
which should scare the living daylights out of nonbelievers ...

SHY VOTER EFFECT

All withing cheating distance. Needs to be Trump +10 across the board

Sent from my SM-G990U2 using Tapatalk

The hardest thing to measure in polling is the level of motivation to vote. This is often something that skews the polls. As of the moment, it just seems like Trump supporters are far more motivated. That can change tho but I think it's unlikely to change much.