(09-26-2023 11:11 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote: (09-26-2023 11:03 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote: (09-26-2023 10:47 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote: (09-26-2023 07:20 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote: The G5 have temporary leverage for the next 2 years because the current contract needs unanimous consent to change 6+6 and there’s no real reason for the G5 to give that up.
On the other hand, the G5 (or G5) have pretty much zero leverage beyond 2025. The choice is either 5+7 or top 12, so they need to take what they can get.
Only reason to give it up is a larger % payout in the next deal. 5-7 is all but guaranteed to happen, only the SEC really wants top 12 and the G5 does have enough leverage to prevent some sort of 4-8 format. It's really just going to be about the financial split, and the only way if I'm the G5 leagues I give up 2 years of 6-6 is for a real win on the financial split. Obviously not like making them equal win but I believe the P5 currently splits like 80% of the money and instead of it being the P4 getting 80% it's something like the P4 getting 70% and the G5/G6 getting 30%. That would probably be worth going to 5-7 early.
And that’s why I think we’ll see 6+6 for the next 2 years and then the Big Ten and SEC will put the hammer down in the next contract. My educated belief is that the Big Ten and SEC care waaaaaaaay more about making that revenue split even *more* in their favor (such as 85/15 for the P5/G5/6 split) than the playoff format. The token G5 spot isn’t a big deal to the P2. However, the P2 getting even more of the money is a *very* big deal to them.
I'm sure that's what they'll want to do and it will be interesting to see how that goes. They certainly are the 2 most powerful conferences, but they probably also want a larger split than the other P leagues so the voting on that is going to be interesting.
About the bolded, this is what I have been thinking. IMO the SEC and B1G likely care more about getting more $$$ out of the P-percentage than getting more away from the G-percentage.
Two scenarios:
I. PAC reconstitutes, MW remains, so we now have a P4/G6.
P-share is currently 80%, G-share is 20%. With this scenario, I think the SEC and B1G would push for something like ....
G6 .... 23% (slight boost because there is one more G mouth to feed).
P4 ..... SEC and B1G ..... 25% each.
ACC and Big 12 ............ 13.5% each.
II. PAC absorbs the MW or MW absorbs OS and WS, so we have a P4 and G5 ...
G5 ..... 20% each like now
P4 ...... SEC and B1G ..... 26% each
ACC and Big 12 ............. 14% each
Something like that. But in each case, the Gs are relatively unscathed, it is the ACC and B12 who lose big percentages.
Just MO.