RE: Why the "Secure spot in the 3rd conference" is not attractive
(05-21-2023 08:54 PM)johnbragg Wrote:
(05-21-2023 08:52 PM)Alanda Wrote:
(05-21-2023 05:08 PM)johnbragg Wrote: The Powers That BE are trying to suppress my message.
Swapped the link, maybe this one stays up
lol
I'll take our chances on being fired. That means we were at least in the competition.
It would be a smart move for Memphis, not so much for Pitt.
Can Pitt or Memphis control if the P2 decide to come knockin' in the next decade or sooner though? The kind of investment it would take to vault them into that conversation would render P2 membership moot.
For SOME schools, there's a chance at the Cadillac. However, for most schools, Conference 3 is the best they're gonna get. Maybe it's enough to keep them in the top level of football, maybe it's not, but it's a whole lot better than being the last man standing when all the chairs are gone like Cincinnati was during the breakup of the BE.
RE: Why the "Secure spot in the 3rd conference" is not attractive
(05-21-2023 04:22 PM)johnbragg Wrote:
Third prize is you're fired
Lol
People throw these clips around. I always want to see Baldwin's character get fired. That guy would cry like a baby.
Of course, third is a spot worth having for a conference. We're talking about a lot of money.
Your members need to be cool with it, though. And that depends on their expectations.
Right now, as we see, most of the ACC's membership is not cool with it. The schools have higher ambitions. Let those schools get a call-up that yields more of what they expect—then you can bring in new members, and things have a chance to settle nicely.
(This post was last modified: 05-22-2023 04:40 AM by Gitanole.)
RE: Why the "Secure spot in the 3rd conference" is not attractive
(05-22-2023 01:15 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:
(05-21-2023 08:54 PM)johnbragg Wrote:
(05-21-2023 08:52 PM)Alanda Wrote:
(05-21-2023 05:08 PM)johnbragg Wrote: The Powers That BE are trying to suppress my message.
Swapped the link, maybe this one stays up
lol
I'll take our chances on being fired. That means we were at least in the competition.
It would be a smart move for Memphis, not so much for Pitt.
Can Pitt or Memphis control if the P2 decide to come knockin' in the next decade or sooner though? The kind of investment it would take to vault them into that conversation would render P2 membership moot.
For SOME schools, there's a chance at the Cadillac. However, for most schools, Conference 3 is the best they're gonna get. Maybe it's enough to keep them in the top level of football, maybe it's not, but it's a whole lot better than being the last man standing when all the chairs are gone like Cincinnati was during the breakup of the BE.
But its not better than guaranteed money through 2036.
RE: Why the "Secure spot in the 3rd conference" is not attractive
This reminded me that there has been something chuckle-worthy about the ACC talk coming out of the M7 revelation regarding being the "third-best conference" or whatever.
I mean, imagine five people in a room:
Elon Musk
Bill Gates
Me (net worth, maybe $400,000)
Broke bum #1
Broke bum #2
.. I'd be the "third-richest man" in that room. But that doesn't mean I'd be rich, or anything like Musk or Gates, both of whom have like 250,000 times my net worth. I'd be far closer in wealth to the bums.
Obviously, compared to the P5 situation, that is a vast exaggeration. But it makes the point that you can't eat a percentage, or an ordinal ranking. And I think that being "solid #3" won't mollify the M7 for long.
We'll see.
(This post was last modified: 05-22-2023 08:50 AM by quo vadis.)
RE: Why the "Secure spot in the 3rd conference" is not attractive
(05-22-2023 08:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote: This reminded me that there has been something chuckle-worthy about the ACC talk coming out of the M7 revelation regarding being the "third-best conference" or whatever.
I mean, imagine five people in a room:
Elon Musk
Bill Gates
Me (net worth, maybe $400,000)
Broke bum #1
Broke bum #2
.. I'd be the "third-richest man" in that room. But that doesn't mean I'd be rich, or anything like Musk or Gates, both of whom have like 250,000 times my net worth. I'd be far closer in wealth to the bums.
Obviously, compared to the P5 situation, that is a vast exaggeration. But it makes the point that you can't eat a percentage, or an ordinal ranking. And I think that being "solid #3" won't mollify the M7 for long.
We'll see.
Right. If you're Pitt or Louisville or Syracuse or maybe NC State, posters on the board are saying you'd be getting a good deal to let other schools go to the SEC or Big Ten and get your "spot secured" in the No. 3 conference.
I'd say you should hold on to that guaranteed ESPN-ACC contract money, because there's no assurance that the Big 12 is still getting a solid deal in 2031.
RE: Why the "Secure spot in the 3rd conference" is not attractive
(05-22-2023 01:15 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:
(05-21-2023 08:54 PM)johnbragg Wrote:
(05-21-2023 08:52 PM)Alanda Wrote:
(05-21-2023 05:08 PM)johnbragg Wrote: The Powers That BE are trying to suppress my message.
Swapped the link, maybe this one stays up
lol
I'll take our chances on being fired. That means we were at least in the competition.
It would be a smart move for Memphis, not so much for Pitt.
Can Pitt or Memphis control if the P2 decide to come knockin' in the next decade or sooner though? The kind of investment it would take to vault them into that conversation would render P2 membership moot.
For SOME schools, there's a chance at the Cadillac. However, for most schools, Conference 3 is the best they're gonna get. Maybe it's enough to keep them in the top level of football, maybe it's not, but it's a whole lot better than being the last man standing when all the chairs are gone like Cincinnati was during the breakup of the BE.
But neither really should be P2s. Pitt in B10, maybe on some metrics. Memphis State in SEC, certainly not. So gaining entry into Conference #3 seems to be a win as long as they are somewhat in the overall conversation.
RE: Why the "Secure spot in the 3rd conference" is not attractive
(05-22-2023 09:51 AM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:
(05-22-2023 01:15 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:
(05-21-2023 08:54 PM)johnbragg Wrote:
(05-21-2023 08:52 PM)Alanda Wrote:
(05-21-2023 05:08 PM)johnbragg Wrote: The Powers That BE are trying to suppress my message.
Swapped the link, maybe this one stays up
lol
I'll take our chances on being fired. That means we were at least in the competition.
It would be a smart move for Memphis, not so much for Pitt.
Can Pitt or Memphis control if the P2 decide to come knockin' in the next decade or sooner though? The kind of investment it would take to vault them into that conversation would render P2 membership moot.
For SOME schools, there's a chance at the Cadillac. However, for most schools, Conference 3 is the best they're gonna get. Maybe it's enough to keep them in the top level of football, maybe it's not, but it's a whole lot better than being the last man standing when all the chairs are gone like Cincinnati was during the breakup of the BE.
But neither really should be P2s. Pitt in B10, maybe on some metrics. Memphis State in SEC, certainly not. So gaining entry into Conference #3 seems to be a win as long as they are somewhat in the overall conversation.
The point is that there's no guarantee that "Conference 3" stays somewhat in the overall conversation. Pitt has ACC money guaranteed through 2036. They have playoff access, and the ACC champ is not losing playoff access as long as they have FSU and Clemson in the fold.
Trading that for a Big 12 or revamped ACC "Third conference" (without FSU and Clemson) is taking a risk. The Big 12 contract expires in 2031. Nobody knows if they get the same contract again, double the money, half the money. The TV industry is changing.
If you enable the transition from P5 to P3, you have no security that the system stays at P3 instead of P2. Third place? You're fired.
RE: Why the "Secure spot in the 3rd conference" is not attractive
Too much comparing yourself to the Jones.
The Big 12 members are making 50% more in media money than they were in the previous contract. They will be making at least 50% more from the CFP than before.
The Big 12 and ACC are doing quite well. Pac--we don't know yet.
RE: Why the "Secure spot in the 3rd conference" is not attractive
(05-22-2023 10:14 AM)johnbragg Wrote:
(05-22-2023 09:51 AM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:
(05-22-2023 01:15 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:
(05-21-2023 08:54 PM)johnbragg Wrote:
(05-21-2023 08:52 PM)Alanda Wrote: lol
I'll take our chances on being fired. That means we were at least in the competition.
It would be a smart move for Memphis, not so much for Pitt.
Can Pitt or Memphis control if the P2 decide to come knockin' in the next decade or sooner though? The kind of investment it would take to vault them into that conversation would render P2 membership moot.
For SOME schools, there's a chance at the Cadillac. However, for most schools, Conference 3 is the best they're gonna get. Maybe it's enough to keep them in the top level of football, maybe it's not, but it's a whole lot better than being the last man standing when all the chairs are gone like Cincinnati was during the breakup of the BE.
But neither really should be P2s. Pitt in B10, maybe on some metrics. Memphis State in SEC, certainly not. So gaining entry into Conference #3 seems to be a win as long as they are somewhat in the overall conversation.
The point is that there's no guarantee that "Conference 3" stays somewhat in the overall conversation. Pitt has ACC money guaranteed through 2036. They have playoff access, and the ACC champ is not losing playoff access as long as they have FSU and Clemson in the fold.
Trading that for a Big 12 or revamped ACC "Third conference" (without FSU and Clemson) is taking a risk. The Big 12 contract expires in 2031. Nobody knows if they get the same contract again, double the money, half the money. The TV industry is changing.
If you enable the transition from P5 to P3, you have no security that the system stays at P3 instead of P2. Third place? You're fired.
Yep. Only way I'd even ponder doing something like that if I were a Pitt/Wake/BC/whoever is if the reward for doing that is whatever that 3rd conference ended up being is given a deal worth more than the current ACC deal through at least 2036 with the conference having the exact same level of power and access as the current ACC. Meaning if I'm those schools I'd need to be put in the exact same position from a power and access position and a better financial position for the entirety of the current ACC TV deal to even consider this, and I'd require a GOR for the new 3rd conference, and even with all that I'd probably still not do it. Assuming ESPN were actually game to do what I laid out (which why on earth would they want to willingly both the valuable and less valuable pieces of a product they own outright more money) 2036 is a long time and why would you want to go willingly to the P3 now when maybe you could make yourself more attractive to the P2 side if you are one of the large market but kinda poor performing members of the ACC.
RE: Why the "Secure spot in the 3rd conference" is not attractive
No one wants to end up in a 3rd conference in a P2+1 scenario but the reality is, for most schools, a 3rd conference is the best opportunity to remain relevant for as long as possible as the networks drive further and further consolidation.
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Why the "Secure spot in the 3rd conference" is not attractive
