These are the expected win totals from Bill Connelly.

Coastal: 8
JMU: 8.6
Marshall: 7.3
App State 6.6
Georgia Southern: 5.2
ODU: 3.9
Georgia State: 3.3

Troy: 9
South Alabama: 7.7
Louisiana: 7.7
Southern Miss: 5.2
Texas State 3.7
Ark State 4.1
La Monroe 2.8

Thoughts on a few of these:

I think that JMU could be the best team in the East but it's hard to see them get to 9 wins. In their non-conference games they have a long trip to Utah State after consecutive trips to Virginia and Troy. If you can 2-2 in the first 4 games you have to go 7-1 the rest of the way in the Sun Belt East grind and against South. No real complete gimme games (other than UConn).

The one team I'll definitely take the over on is Georgia Southern. Call me a homer if you want, but I told people last year we had the skill position talent to be good on offense if we had good coaching and we ended up with the top total offense. Our SP+ returning production tanked because we lost our starting QB but we'll have an AAC starter this year who will probably be better. We also have a new DC who is likely to be better just by regression to the mean.

Leaning to taking the over for App State but it's not obvious. Scot Sloan is probably the perfect DC for the Sun Belt East (but I know from experience offenses like GS's and UNC's will still pose problems for him). They also have Coastal, GS, and Marshall in Boone. Not sold on their QB (App can't just put an athlete back there and score points like they did 2005-2013) or Clark but they have things going for them.

Let's wreck out of conference play and get at least 10 teams bowling.

Coastal: 8 Under
JMU: 8.6 Over
Marshall: 7.3 Under
App State 6.6 Over
Georgia Southern: 5.2 Over
ODU: 3.9 Over
Georgia State: 3.3 Over

Troy: 9 Over
South Alabama: 7.7 Over
Louisiana: 7.7 Under
Southern Miss: 5.2 Over
Texas State 3.7 Over
Ark State 4.1 Under
La Monroe 2.8 Over

I'd love to see us have another OOC like last season. Getting those Top 10 wins over Notre Dame and Texas A&M was sweet.

Troy at 9 seems about right. That three game stretch of Kansas State, JMU, and Western Kentucky is absolutely bananas.

I think thats an easy over for us......

But I also think that every year

(05-10-2023 11:49 AM)slycat Wrote:  Coastal: 8 Under
JMU: 8.6 Over
Marshall: 7.3 Under
App State 6.6 Over
Georgia Southern: 5.2 Over
ODU: 3.9 Over
Georgia State: 3.3 Over

Troy: 9 Over
South Alabama: 7.7 Over
Louisiana: 7.7 Under
Southern Miss: 5.2 Over
Texas State 3.7 Over
Ark State 4.1 Under
La Monroe 2.8 Over

I agree with Slycat's assessment.

Coastal: 8 Push
JMU: 8.6 Over
Marshall: 7.3 Under
App State 6.6 Over
Georgia Southern: 5.2 Over
ODU: 3.9 Under
Georgia State: 3.3 Under

Troy: 9 Under
South Alabama: 7.7 Under
Louisiana: 7.7 Over
Southern Miss: 5.2 Under
Texas State 3.7 Over
Ark State 4.1 Under
La Monroe 2.8 Under

Coastal: 8 Over
JMU: 8.6 Under
Marshall: 7.3 Over
App State 6.6 Under
Georgia Southern: 5.2 Under
ODU: 3.9 Under
Georgia State: 3.3 Over

Troy: 9 Over
South Alabama: 7.7 Over
Louisiana: 7.7 Under
Southern Miss: 5.2 Over
Texas State 3.7 Over
Ark State 4.1 Under
La Monroe 2.8 Over

(05-10-2023 01:44 PM)bridgeforthduke Wrote:  JMU: 8.6 Over
Troy: 9 Under

Coastal: 8 Push
JMU: 8.6 Under
Marshall: 7.3 Over
App State 6.6 Over
Georgia Southern: 5.2 Under
ODU: 3.9 Over
Georgia State: 3.3 Over

Troy: 9 Push
South Alabama: 7.7 Over
Louisiana: 7.7 Under
Southern Miss: 5.2 Over
Texas State 3.7 Under
Ark State 4.1 Over
La Monroe 2.8 Over

lmao at 0.x … it’s either a whole number or x.5…

all I know is if the mustard buzzards win 6+, we’ll have found a QB … our schedule is brutal…

Not sold on JMU being that good. Who do they have coming back? Portal pickups?

Not about the over under but CC and Troy should be the easy favorites in the divisions.

JMU has to come to Marshall, so that's one loss for them. jk.

Just hope we can compete.

(05-11-2023 09:18 AM)SVHerd Wrote:  Not sold on JMU being that good. Who do they have coming back? Portal pickups?

Not about the over under but CC and Troy should be the easy favorites in the divisions.

JMU has to come to Marshall, so that's one loss for them. jk.

Just hope we can compete.

JMU is #34 in the nation in returning production. All they probably need is a competent QB.

I think Marshall Defense will be like Troy's last year. We keep adding to the depth of an already great Defense. If Fancher improves off his 5-1 record, the Herd may be in for a special season, and first SBC title!! LFG HERD!

S. Alabama is loaded with 19 of 22 starters returning. Really good QB returning and landed in the backfield. Their D should be top shelf. Really no excuse for them not to win the West.

(05-10-2023 11:07 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  These are the expected win totals from Bill Connelly.

Coastal: 8
JMU: 8.6
Marshall: 7.3
App State 6.6
Georgia Southern: 5.2
ODU: 3.9
Georgia State: 3.3

Troy: 9
South Alabama: 7.7
Louisiana: 7.7
Southern Miss: 5.2
Texas State 3.7
Ark State 4.1
La Monroe 2.8

Thoughts on a few of these:

I think that JMU could be the best team in the East but it's hard to see them get to 9 wins. In their non-conference games they have a long trip to Utah State after consecutive trips to Virginia and Troy. If you can 2-2 in the first 4 games you have to go 7-1 the rest of the way in the Sun Belt East grind and against South. No real complete gimme games (other than UConn).

The one team I'll definitely take the over on is Georgia Southern. Call me a homer if you want, but I told people last year we had the skill position talent to be good on offense if we had good coaching and we ended up with the top total offense. Our SP+ returning production tanked because we lost our starting QB but we'll have an AAC starter this year who will probably be better. We also have a new DC who is likely to be better just by regression to the mean.

Leaning to taking the over for App State but it's not obvious. Scot Sloan is probably the perfect DC for the Sun Belt East (but I know from experience offenses like GS's and UNC's will still pose problems for him). They also have Coastal, GS, and Marshall in Boone. Not sold on their QB (App can't just put an athlete back there and score points like they did 2005-2013) or Clark but they have things going for them.

Wait...so this dude only thinks Southern Miss will win 5 games in Will Hall's 3rd year as HC at USM?

2021: 3 wins (Will Hall Year 1)
2022: 7 wins (Will Hall Year 2)
2023: this guy predicts 5 wins in Will Hall Year 3????

lol make this make sense.

(05-11-2023 11:00 AM)TTT Wrote:  

(05-10-2023 11:07 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  These are the expected win totals from Bill Connelly.

Coastal: 8
JMU: 8.6
Marshall: 7.3
App State 6.6
Georgia Southern: 5.2
ODU: 3.9
Georgia State: 3.3

Troy: 9
South Alabama: 7.7
Louisiana: 7.7
Southern Miss: 5.2
Texas State 3.7
Ark State 4.1
La Monroe 2.8

Thoughts on a few of these:

I think that JMU could be the best team in the East but it's hard to see them get to 9 wins. In their non-conference games they have a long trip to Utah State after consecutive trips to Virginia and Troy. If you can 2-2 in the first 4 games you have to go 7-1 the rest of the way in the Sun Belt East grind and against South. No real complete gimme games (other than UConn).

The one team I'll definitely take the over on is Georgia Southern. Call me a homer if you want, but I told people last year we had the skill position talent to be good on offense if we had good coaching and we ended up with the top total offense. Our SP+ returning production tanked because we lost our starting QB but we'll have an AAC starter this year who will probably be better. We also have a new DC who is likely to be better just by regression to the mean.

Leaning to taking the over for App State but it's not obvious. Scot Sloan is probably the perfect DC for the Sun Belt East (but I know from experience offenses like GS's and UNC's will still pose problems for him). They also have Coastal, GS, and Marshall in Boone. Not sold on their QB (App can't just put an athlete back there and score points like they did 2005-2013) or Clark but they have things going for them.

Wait...so this dude only thinks Southern Miss will win 5 games in Will Hall's 3rd year as HC at USM?

2021: 3 wins (Will Hall Year 1)
2022: 7 wins (Will Hall Year 2)
2023: this guy predicts 5 wins in Will Hall Year 3????

lol make this make sense.

5 wins in 2023 for TXST and you couldn't completely rule out a contract extension (although with new leadership I doubt it). It's year 1 but you could probably call this team at least 70% all HC Kinne's team and the cupboards weren't exactly left completely bare for him either.

(05-11-2023 11:00 AM)TTT Wrote:  Wait...so this dude only thinks Southern Miss will win 5 games in Will Hall's 3rd year as HC at USM?

2021: 3 wins (Will Hall Year 1)
2022: 7 wins (Will Hall Year 2)
2023: this guy predicts 5 wins in Will Hall Year 3????

lol make this make sense.

I said nothing of the sort.

I do kind of have an east-centric view but there's a reason for that. When we had 10 teams I could get more familiar with the west division squads but in the 14-team format I just don't see as much of each west team. It almost feels like we're in two separate conferences.

Taking the over on most of the SBC is probably a good bet because a few years ago Bill Connelly put conference priors on calculations (that is, he weight historical performances of conferences) so there's a good bet a majority of teams will hit the over.

(05-11-2023 09:18 AM)SVHerd Wrote:  Not sold on JMU being that good. Who do they have coming back? Portal pickups?

Not about the over under but CC and Troy should be the easy favorites in the divisions.

JMU has to come to Marshall, so that's one loss for them. jk.

Just hope we can compete.

I take up for Coastal when a lot when people try to pooh pooh what they've done but I have to completely disagree with this. Coastal had to go 4-0 in one-possession games to win the east. I don't care who you are and who your coach is, in the long run you only win 50% of the close games.