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RE: It's Bubble Watch time
ESPN Bubble Watch (Final update)
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket...-selection
Quote:For those who track the bubble and ponder which men's basketball teams will hear their names called on Selection Sunday, the ACC has been at the center of the action in 2023.
NC State and Pittsburgh have both been on Joe Lunardi's "last four in" list since losing in the ACC quarterfinals. Clemson, the team that defeated the Wolf Pack, rose to "first four out" status in Lunardi's eyes. The Tigers have stayed there since losing to Virginia in the semifinals.
Meanwhile, on Lunardi's "next four out" list, there's still another ACC team, one that reached the 2022 national title game. Perhaps the committee will surprise us all and we'll learn the league was even more bubbly than anyone suspected.
In any event, the ACC is the only league with three teams this close to the projected cut line. The SEC can claim Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, and no other conference has more than one. Indeed, the Big East and Big Ten in particular give the appearance of more or less having sorted everything out already. (Though, to be sure, discussion does continue with regard to Rutgers.)
That will be for the committee to decide, naturally, but the ACC does look like the conference with the most on the line Sunday. The Wolfpack and the Panthers were viewed as relatively safe late in the regular season. Now both teams might be tracking as potential bid thieves more closely than they had anticipated.
Clemson has followed a different path. Despite joining Pitt in posting an impressive 14-6 ACC record, the Tigers received a cool reception from mock brackets. (So did the Panthers.) Part of the reason was said to be a "down" year for the ACC itself.
The league is indeed ranked below the Mountain West and clocks in at No. 7 at KenPom this season. Observers of the ACC are quick to point out, however, that the conference did win the 2022 ACC-Big Ten Challenge in November. Not to mention any dip in the top-to-bottom statistical strength hasn't prevented the top of the ACC from thriving of late.
Duke, Virginia and Miami joined Clemson in the ACC tournament semifinals. The Blue Devils, Cavaliers and Hurricanes are all projected as Nos. 4, 5 or 6 seeds. All three have looked better than those seeds for the past few weeks.
Possibly the ACC was in fact down in 2023 compared to its lofty historical average. Maybe this state of affairs has colored perceptions of both its best teams and its bubble teams.
ACC fans believe the next three weeks will show that a league can be both bubbly and mighty. The first part of that description definitely fits the ACC. It's conceivable we'll look back someday and say the second part was accurate too.
Here is our current projection of the bubble:
Teams from traditional one-bid conferences: 22
Locks: 37 teams
The bubble: 19 teams for 9 available spots
Should be in: 2 teams
Work to do: 17 teams
ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC |
American | Mountain West | Others
ACC
Locks
Virginia Cavaliers, Miami Hurricanes, Duke Blue Devils
Work to do
NC State Wolfpack
That was a short stay in "Should be in" for the Wolfpack. A mere 24 hours after looking so cohesive in a 20-point win over Virginia Tech, NC State completely fell apart in an 80-54 loss to Clemson in the ACC quarterfinals. The Wolfpack entered the contest shown as a "last four byes" team in mock brackets. That's better than being "last four in" and it does give Kevin Keatts and his men a degree of cushion. Still, losing by 26 to the NET's No. 61 team will reduce that cushion quickly. (No, Clemson's not going to stay No. 61 after a performance like that.) NC State may still get into the field, but this has become a much closer question. (updated March 9)
Pittsburgh Panthers
After a 27-point loss to Duke, the Panthers fell a whopping 11 spots in the NET. That metric is of course merely a sorting mechanism for the NCAA, but it can also function as something of a trusty weather vane. Strength of record also dropped Pitt the equivalent of one seed line, and Jeff Capel's group didn't really have many seed lines to give. The Panthers were being labeled as a "last four byes" team before they were blown out by the Blue Devils. Now Pitt's gracing a good many "last four in" lists and hoping for a minimum of bracket disturbance from bid thieves or fast-rising bubble rivals. (updated March 10)
Clemson Tigers
However far Clemson rose in the estimation of the committee with its 26-point victory over NC State, the Tigers have ascended no further after a 20-point loss on the same ACC tournament floor to Virginia. At 23-10, Brad Brownell's team has now turned its fate over to the NCAA. We do know Clemson had played its way onto many "first four out" lists prior to the loss to the Cavaliers. Many "first four out" teams on Champ Week Friday have lost that day only to hear their names called the following Sunday. Such could be the Tigers' destiny. If, on the other hand, it doesn't play out that way, it might be due to this profile showing relatively low rankings in the so-called résumé metrics: KPI and strength of record. (updated March 10)
North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina's season came down to a defensive struggle against Virginia in the ACC quarterfinals. The Cavaliers have built quite the body of work in that area over the past decade, and this time was no different. The Tar Heels came up short by nine, and now Hubert Davis and his team await the committee's final verdict. Or, quite possibly, they feel they know what that decision will be already. Unless the committee pulls the largest rabbit in Selection Sunday history out of a hat, North Carolina is not going to the NCAA tournament. (updated March 9)
BIG 12
Locks
Kansas Jayhawks, Texas Longhorns, Iowa State Cyclones, Baylor Bears, Kansas State Wildcats, TCU Horned Frogs, West Virginia Mountaineers
Work to do
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State's run in the Big 12 tournament came to a shuddering halt against Texas. The Cowboys eked out just 47 points in 68 possessions as the Longhorns posted a comfortable 13-point win. OSU's postseason fate as a projected "first four out" team was highly uncertain before the loss, and it remains so now. Obviously, losing to a potential No. 2 seed like Texas does no appreciable damage to a profile. The question is simply what every other bubble team does while Oklahoma State waits and watches. Also keep in mind team sheet metrics have pretty consistently painted a more favorable view of the Cowboys than have the mock brackets. It feels like the Cowboys are right on the edge and could fall either way. (updated March 9)
BIG EAST
Locks
Marquette Golden Eagles, Xavier Musketeers, UConn Huskies, Creighton Bluejays, Providence Friars
BIG TEN
Locks
Purdue Boilermakers, Indiana Hoosiers, Maryland Terrapins, Northwestern Wildcats, Michigan State Spartans, Iowa Hawkeyes, Illinois Fighting Illini, Penn State Nittany Lions
Work to do
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Rutgers Scarlet Knights
By the traditional lights of Champ Week, Rutgers has zero to worry about. Prior to losing by five to Purdue in the Big Ten quarterfinals, the Scarlet Knights were projected as one of the last four teams in the field or even as belonging in the "Last Four Byes" group. The defeat in the league tournament came against an opponent that may earn a top seed in the field of 68. Anyway, the metrics on the Rutgers team sheet are head and shoulders above what they were a year ago. That team was of course awarded an at-large, so this year's Scarlet Knights should be fine. If the committee should decide to shock us all, however, it may be due to this team's results-based metrics. Those numbers still aren't very good compared with those of competing 2023 Last Four In and First Four Out rivals. Such metrics have had some say at the cut line the past two years. (updated March 10)
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin was still in some projected brackets prior to losing to Ohio State by eight in the first round of the Big Ten tournament. The majority of projections, however, already had the Badgers on the wrong side of the cut line. After starting the season 11-2, Greg Gard's team went 6-12 the rest of the way. The win at Marquette and season sweeps of Iowa and Penn State still look impressive. Nevertheless, a 17-14 team that lost on Wednesday at the Big Ten tournament as the No. 12 seed and is ranked near No. 80 in the NET is facing very long odds on Selection Sunday. Yes, the committee has confounded expectations before. Wisconsin has to hope that will happen again. (updated March 8)
Michigan Wolverines
The Wolverines were still in contention for an at-large bid right up until the 25th minute of their 32nd game. That was when Hunter Dickinson made a 3 to draw within 37-34 against Rutgers in the Big Ten tournament's second round. UM did not make another shot from the field for nearly 14 minutes. With the 62-50 loss to the Scarlet Knights, Michigan is 17-15. The Wolverines brought the regular season to a close by going 1-2 in overtime contests at home against Wisconsin and on the road at Illinois and Indiana. Possibly, a 2-1 record there could have made this period leading into Selection Sunday a bit more suspenseful for UM. However, that didn't happen. Barring a highly surprising turn of events, Michigan is about to miss its first NCAA tournament since 2015. (updated March 9)
PAC-12
Locks
Arizona Wildcats, UCLA Bruins
Work to do
USC Trojans
The Trojans are to be commended for playing themselves all the way up to the No. 10 line in projected brackets before the start of the Pac-12 tournament. Had that not been the case, being bounced out of the quarterfinals by the tournament's No. 6 seed could have been problematic. Instead, that No. 6 seed turned out to be bubbly Arizona State, and Andy Enfield's group should be able to absorb the hit without having to feel unduly apprehensive while watching the selection show. USC still appears to be safely above the "last four byes" boundary line, but the Watch will continue to track shifts in the bubble as a whole. Indeed, the Trojans could yet rise or fall slightly despite being inactive. That's March for you. (updated March 10)
Arizona State Sun Devils
Bobby Hurley's group fell to Arizona by 19 in the Pac-12 semifinals, at a moment when the Sun Devils were being shown as one of the last four teams in the projected field. Any loss, even one to an opponent as strong as the Wildcats, leaves you in a precarious position when your hold on the bracket appears so tenuous. At 22-12, ASU's NET ranking is certainly on the low side, and the past Selection Sunday history of teams in the 60s on this metric is spotty at best. On the plus side, Hurley's team fares somewhat better on results-based metrics thanks to regular-season wins over Creighton and Arizona, as well as the Pac-12 tournament victory over USC. It looks like ASU could be a close decision for the committee. (updated March 11)
Oregon Ducks
Oregon has likely come up short in its quest for an at-large bid after losing to UCLA in the Pac-12 semifinals by 19. On the subject of that same number, the 19-point win at home over Arizona in January certainly demonstrated this team's potential. However, Dana Altman's group was never able to truly deliver on that promise. In the end, this is a 19-14 team with talent and one great victory. It does not appear that will be sufficient to receive an invitation for the field of 68. (updated March 10)
SEC
Locks
Alabama Crimson Tide, Tennessee Volunteers, Kentucky Wildcats, Texas A&M Aggies, Arkansas Razorbacks, Missouri Tigers
Should be in
Auburn Tigers
Bruce Pearl's team had played its way up to a projected No. 9 seed before falling by three to Arkansas in the SEC second round. The only drama awaiting the Tigers now should be which seed they're awarded and where they will play. In retrospect, Auburn can pat itself on the back for doing some excellent profile work from November through January. It's not every team that can drop nine of its last 13 games and have such a worry-free Selection Sunday. The Tigers' 16-3 start made it possible. (updated March 9)
Work to do
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Timing is everything in this sport. It was Mississippi State's misfortune to come across a resurgent Alabama instead of the preceding version that went to overtime at South Carolina and lost at Texas A&M. The result was a 23-point loss to the Crimson Tide in the SEC quarterfinals. Fortunately for the Bulldogs, there's a chance they've banked a bid anyway with a 9-4 closing run that featured wins over TCU, Missouri, Arkansas (on the road) and Texas A&M. Mock brackets showed the Bulldogs in the Last Four Byes group, which is where the numbers on their team sheet would appear to rank them as well. If there's a potential dark cloud on this otherwise sunny horizon it's one shared by all Work to Do teams. A fair number of bubble hopefuls emerged victorious from Champ Week on Thursday, and room at the top is limited. (updated March 10)
Vanderbilt Commodores
Storied coach Frank McGuire had a message that might apply to the Commodores. He and North Carolina won the 1957 national title game 54-53. In the years afterward, when he was introduced as a "national championship coach," he would occasionally respond with two words: "One point." In the case of Vanderbilt's 2022-23 season, the mantra would be "one game." If the Commodores don't hear their names on the selection show, it might mean they came up one game short after losing to Texas A&M in the SEC semifinals. Going back further still, one win at LSU (which at the time was 1-13 in the SEC) could have obviated the need to beat the Aggies in March. Despite a brilliant stretch run, neither materialized for Jerry Stackhouse and his team. One game. (updated March 11)
AMERICAN
Locks
Houston Cougars, Memphis Tigers
MOUNTAIN WEST
Locks
San Diego State Aztecs
Should be in
Boise State Broncos
The Broncos' preselection profile is now complete after a 10-point loss to fast-rising Utah State in the Mountain West semifinals. Such a defeat shouldn't be a problem for a "last four byes" team, and it would definitely be of little concern for a projected No. 9 seed. Intriguingly, BSU is both. Mock brackets have exhibited some degree of uncertainty about where to slot a 24-9 Mountain West team with better results-based metrics than some Bubble Watch locks. The final answer from the committee might be a double-digit seed. This is another way of saying Boise State is poised to make its second consecutive NCAA appearance for the first time since 1994. (updated March 11)
Work to do
Utah State Aggies
Utah State is a 26-8 team outside the major conferences. The Aggies suffered two losses to opponents ranked around No. 200 in the NET and played just one major-conference foe all season, and they are beloved of ratings systems in both the "predictive" and "résumé" camps. It's as if USU were genetically engineered to elicit conflicting answers to the question of whether to give this team a bid. For the balance of the season, mock brackets answered in the negative, absolutely not. Those projections changed their tune just enough to open a grudging spot under "last four in" when Utah State capped off its regular season with a 13-point win at home over Boise State. Finally, by the time the Aggies reached the Mountain West title game, they were found under "last four byes." USU should be safe, but Ryan Odom and his team will breathe much easier after the selection show. (updated March 11)
Nevada Wolf Pack
If Nevada had won just one of its last three games, you would likely be looking at an NCAA tournament team. Instead, the Wolf Pack lost at Wyoming, lost in overtime at home to UNLV and then lost in overtime in the Mountain West quarterfinals to San José State. Now, who knows, you may still be looking at an NCAA tournament team. The committee likes to be contrarian on occasion. The team sheet for Steve Alford's group still looked surprisingly strong prior to tipoff against the Spartans. Nevertheless, it speaks volumes that Nevada's best-case scenario has become the committee deciding to confound everyone's expectations. (updated March 9)
OTHERS
Locks
Gonzaga Bulldogs, Saint Mary's Gaels, Florida Atlantic Owls
Work to do
VCU Rams
Think of VCU's trajectory as the opposite of the one charted by Vanderbilt. Where the Commodores had to rise from a very low starting point to achieve bubble status, the Rams have been lurking just outside "work to do" for weeks. Now back-to-back Atlantic 10 tournament victories over Davidson and Saint Louis by an average of 15 points have made it official: Coach Mike Rhoades has a bubble team. Can VCU truly earn an at-large from the committee in the event of a loss in the A-10 title game? The example set by 2022 SEC tournament runner-up Texas A&M is not encouraging. The Aggies were snubbed, and the Rams might be as well if they don't capture the automatic bid. (updated March 11)
North Texas Mean Green
For a second year in a row the Mean Green fell short in the Conference USA semifinals, this time by seven to UAB. Jelly Walker was outstanding for the Blazers as he buried any remaining UNT at-large hopes underneath 32 points. Grant McCasland's team is 51-14 since it reached the 2021 round of 32, but a return trip to the field of 68 will apparently take place in 2024 at the earliest. (updated March 10)
VCU makes its debut.
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It's Bubble Watch time
