(02-26-2023 09:53 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (02-26-2023 09:20 AM)Section 200 Wrote: As long as ESPN pays the ACC the same per school with FSU vs. without FSU, there are no damages. Only the exit fee applies. FSU is leaving the ACC before 2036.
I am not sure that ESPN paying the ACC the same per school with vs without FSU solves the GOR problem -
It solves the damages problem, because if the ACC is making the same money with South Florida replacing Florida State, ACC has no damages, or at most exit-fee damages.
But it doesn't "solve the GOR problem" of how you get FSU and their TV rights out of the ACC in the first place.
Quote: my understanding is that a GOR means the ACC owns the FSU media rights in-toto, such that if between now and 2036 FSU leaves the ACC and then sells its media rights for new money to anyone else, the ACC is entitled to that money. It's not a question of damages, but ownership. But I am not a lawyer and so may well be wrong.
Yeah, that's about it.
Quote:So let's assume I am wrong. What incentive would ESPN have to pay the ACC the full amount,
That's a pretty good question. JRSEC has the least bad answers I've seen, and it's a lot of handwaving about consolidation. A few months to a year ago it was all going to be paid for by the new CFP money and a 72-or-so team P3 breakaway. Lately it's been an ACC-SEC merger with unequal revenue sharing.
Quote:and then presumably pay FSU more to be in the SEC or some other conference?
Right, ESPN would be (in these scenarios) paying the ACC the same money (or at least the same per school), while paying the SEC a lot more money (adding FSU and Clemson, plus the customary per-school bump when the SEC expands). And for this new money, ESPN gets the valuable prize of ....
Quote:One thing that comes to mind is the prospect of a lot more games between FSU and SEC teams - FSU vs Auburn, FSU vs LSU, FSU vs Alabama, etc. But, IMO ESPN would have to pay the SEC considerably more to make them want to take FSU. If more $$$ are going to be made, the SEC will want some of that I think.
That's what ESPN is getting. But these are frankly average SEC games. FSU and Clemson are middle-of-the-pack fanbases in the SEC. I have an old spreadsheet of FBS Attendance 2013-18, because some clickbait site did the math for me and I cut and pasted it. Clemson and FSU are both below the SEC median for attendance over that span. (Both the 14 team SEC and 16 team SEC + UT, OU).
Quote:In the end I don't think ESPN would find the value of these games nearly high enough to be willing to pay the ACC $40m a year, FSU's share, for them.
But maybe we shall see.
I don't even think it's about FSU's share of the ACC contract. We have two examples of P5 programs losing 2 "kingpin" programs. One of them was able to stay at the same level in value, striking a media deal right before a possible market correction. The other is watching its value crash through the floor.
Is an ACC without Florida STate and Clemson inherently more valuable than the PAC-10? You lose 20M people from the footprint (South Carolina, Florida minus Miami metro), you lose your anchor football programs. The still-fledgling ACC Network takes a huge hit, and I'd expect cable systems in areas that are, at best, marginally "ACC Country" like New York City, Philadelphia and Florida-outside-Miami to stop paying "in-market" rates.
On the other hand, the ACC does provide "tonnage", to use the word of the last few weeks. An average of 2 Saturday games to ESPN/ABC every week plus, on average, another ESPN+ game or weeknight game. And in a couple of years the RSN deal finally expires, so another game or two a week (or maybe the Diamond Sports bankruptcy accelerates that). That gives ESPN some leverage when the Big 12 deal is up.
I'd think there's a small negative effect on the value of a Syracuse-Virginia game if they don't have Clemson and FSU in the league, but that doesn't seem to be the case for a Baylor - Iowa State game.