https://thespun.com/.amp/more/top-storie...acc-rumors

Multiple sites reporting this. $120 million seems very low to me especially given OUTs numbers for one year.

It’s very low because the numbers were made-up by people hired by FSU to come up with very low numbers and tell them what they want to hear.

(02-26-2023 08:49 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  https://thespun.com/.amp/more/top-storie...acc-rumors

Multiple sites reporting this. $120 million seems very low to me especially given OUTs numbers for one year.

Exit fee is 3 years of payout.

Exit fee is nothing. Issue is the ACC and ESPN being willing to sign back media rights for a contract that ends in 2036


FSU can take.it to court and risk it and potentially win, but if they lose they're gonna be broke.

(02-26-2023 08:52 AM)CFBLurker Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 08:49 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  https://thespun.com/.amp/more/top-storie...acc-rumors

Multiple sites reporting this. $120 million seems very low to me especially given OUTs numbers for one year.

FSU can take.it to court and risk it and potentially win, but if they lose they're gonna be broke.

Nope.

FSU has little to lose taking it to court. They can spend up to the cost of being in the ACC rather than SEC before it was a mistake to challenge.

The ACC schools trying to hold up the GOR, particularly the BC types? A lot to lose. An unfavorable ruling, and they lose the one thing keeping the P2 from taking 4-6 schools.

Espn likely wants to avoid this going to court.

The odds of such ruling is non zero, and administrators are risk averse. Remove the disaster scenario as a possibility by finding a settlement.

If there are 6 ACC schools with P2 offer, the madman approach can also be utilized due to the asymmetrical nature of this

As long as ESPN pays the ACC the same per school with FSU vs. without FSU, there are no damages. Only the exit fee applies. FSU is leaving the ACC before 2036.

I'm sure these Grant of Rights aren't as ironclad as everyone makes them out to be. I just can't imagine that every University signed off on such a thing without knowing they had some sort of escape clause.

(02-26-2023 09:16 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 08:52 AM)CFBLurker Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 08:49 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  https://thespun.com/.amp/more/top-storie...acc-rumors

Multiple sites reporting this. $120 million seems very low to me especially given OUTs numbers for one year.

FSU can take.it to court and risk it and potentially win, but if they lose they're gonna be broke.

Nope.

FSU has little to lose taking it to court.

Well, that's not true. First of all, legal fees in the millions, maybe tens of millions, exit fees in the tens of millions.

Second of all, if they lose the case, the ACC is still going to own FSU TV rights. But FSU isn't still going to be a member of the conference -- this only goes to court if FSU has left the ACC.

So either the new 18 or 20 team SEC all take a haircut to give FSU a share, or FSU doesn't collect for their TV rights.

Quote:They can spend up to the cost of being in the ACC rather than SEC before it was a mistake to challenge.

The ACC schools trying to hold up the GOR, particularly the BC types? A lot to lose. An unfavorable ruling, and they lose the one thing keeping the P2 from taking 4-6 schools.

Espn likely wants to avoid this going to court.

That's easily arranged. In the last 2 rounds of SEC expansion, the SEC office was crystal clear that they were not getting involved in the internal politics of another conference. Prospective SEC members have to get themselves clear of their previous conference.

So the SEC's habit is not going to be to move forward. And if their ESPN paymaster doesn't want this to happen, how does it happen? FSU is fighting not just the ACC in court, but ESPN.

ESPN doesn't want to nuke the value of the half-dozen big-time ACC games they have. Sure you'd gain 9 new SEC games with FSU and Clemson, but SEC + FSU, Clemson isn't adding new SEC markets the way Mizzou (St Louis, Kansas City) and A&M (all of Texas) did. And FSU and Clemson are not Oklahoma / Texas level brands.

From ESPN's perspective, they'd rather keep the money rolling in from the ACC and ACC Network as long as they can, and if FSU and Clemson bleed out, that's not really ESPN's problem.

A problem ten years out isn't really a problem for corporate executives. They're likely to be long gone by then.

People who really want FSU and Clemson in the SEC come up with complicated scenarios where, theoretically, P5 schools with 40,000 people in the stands "secure their future" past 2036.

The reality is there is nothing those schools can do that secures their 25 year future. The only security is in having a big whopping fanbase that tunes in to your games in the millions. Even the Illinois's and Mississippi State's aren't *secure*. They're only secure as long as Alabama and Ohio STate tolerate sharing the pie with them.

If this goes to court would the case be decided in Florida?

(02-26-2023 09:52 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 09:16 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 08:52 AM)CFBLurker Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 08:49 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  https://thespun.com/.amp/more/top-storie...acc-rumors

Multiple sites reporting this. $120 million seems very low to me especially given OUTs numbers for one year.

FSU can take.it to court and risk it and potentially win, but if they lose they're gonna be broke.

Nope.

FSU has little to lose taking it to court.

Well, that's not true. First of all, legal fees in the millions, maybe tens of millions, exit fees in the tens of millions.

Second of all, if they lose the case, the ACC is still going to own FSU TV rights. But FSU isn't still going to be a member of the conference -- this only goes to court if FSU has left the ACC.

So either the new 18 or 20 team SEC all take a haircut to give FSU a share, or FSU doesn't collect for their TV rights.

Quote:They can spend up to the cost of being in the ACC rather than SEC before it was a mistake to challenge.

The ACC schools trying to hold up the GOR, particularly the BC types? A lot to lose. An unfavorable ruling, and they lose the one thing keeping the P2 from taking 4-6 schools.

Espn likely wants to avoid this going to court.

That's easily arranged. In the last 2 rounds of SEC expansion, the SEC office was crystal clear that they were not getting involved in the internal politics of another conference. Prospective SEC members have to get themselves clear of their previous conference.

So the SEC's habit is not going to be to move forward. And if their ESPN paymaster doesn't want this to happen, how does it happen? FSU is fighting not just the ACC in court, but ESPN.

ESPN doesn't want to nuke the value of the half-dozen big-time ACC games they have. Sure you'd gain 9 new SEC games with FSU and Clemson, but SEC + FSU, Clemson isn't adding new SEC markets the way Mizzou (St Louis, Kansas City) and A&M (all of Texas) did. And FSU and Clemson are not Oklahoma / Texas level brands.

From ESPN's perspective, they'd rather keep the money rolling in from the ACC and ACC Network as long as they can, and if FSU and Clemson bleed out, that's not really ESPN's problem.

A problem ten years out isn't really a problem for corporate executives. They're likely to be long gone by then.

People who really want FSU and Clemson in the SEC come up with complicated scenarios where, theoretically, P5 schools with 40,000 people in the stands "secure their future" past 2036.

The reality is there is nothing those schools can do that secures their 25 year future. The only security is in having a big whopping fanbase that tunes in to your games in the millions. Even the Illinois's and Mississippi State's aren't *secure*. They're only secure as long as Alabama and Ohio STate tolerate sharing the pie with them.

You’re asking a different question- whether FSU has a P2 invite. Many reasons as to why they likely do.

If they don’t, they won’t proceed. That doesn’t even need to be stated. Message boards are for wasting time, but you bringing this up is a waste even for message boards.

The point was clearly that if they do, then litigation makes sense for FSU. They’re not the one facing a big loss. Losing in court just maintains status quo for them, whereas losing in court is a huge loss to the schools trying to uphold GOR. Like most lawsuits successful in getting settlement, it’s asymmetrical.

And although that legal strategy may cost FSU money, they can spend up to their lost SEC earnings before it was not worth it. The schools on the other side without P2 invite? They don’t have that dynamic- again asymmetry that makes settlement appealing to the inherently risk averse administrators.

There are no guarantees but they won’t be as nihilistic as you. Getting realignment value out of the GOR is the best chance many schools have at a tenable outcome. Never mind keeping up with P2, with no changes to ACC through 2036, come 2036, many schools will be firing staff and dropping millions in budget.

As Frank notes, a GOR has never been successfully challenged in court. The ACC owns FSU's TV rights, whether they are in conference or not, through 2036.

If it was such an easy contract to break, it would have been challenged and defeated already. Now, if a school is willing to challenge it and lose in court (potentially bankrupting an athletic department) then we could see the floodgates open.

I still think movement gets initiated by ESPN as they cannot risk alienating FSU, UNC, Miami and Clemson long-term if Fox/B1G are willing to swoop them up. A compromise will need to be made.

There is no doubt much more to this story than what we know. But I don't believe that AD Alford is unaware of the GoR, or failed to mention it to the Board of Trustees hoping it won't come up as an issue. Which tells me that Alford knows something about the situation that we don't....and surely he is one of those who has made the pilgrimage to the crumbling plantation house on Tobacco Road to read the GoR, or has dispatched his underlings to do so. The double-secret probation ACC handling of their Precious combined with Alford's comments makes me wonder if he has reason to believe the GoR isn't going to be a factor at all?

(02-26-2023 09:16 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 08:52 AM)CFBLurker Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 08:49 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  https://thespun.com/.amp/more/top-storie...acc-rumors

Multiple sites reporting this. $120 million seems very low to me especially given OUTs numbers for one year.

FSU can take.it to court and risk it and potentially win, but if they lose they're gonna be broke.

Nope.

FSU has little to lose taking it to court. They can spend up to the cost of being in the ACC rather than SEC before it was a mistake to challenge.

The ACC schools trying to hold up the GOR, particularly the BC types? A lot to lose. An unfavorable ruling, and they lose the one thing keeping the P2 from taking 4-6 schools.

Espn likely wants to avoid this going to court.

The odds of such ruling is non zero, and administrators are risk averse. Remove the disaster scenario as a possibility by finding a settlement.

If there are 6 ACC schools with P2 offer, the madman approach can also be utilized due to the asymmetrical nature of this

I like your thinking here, but how likely is a disaster scenario for WF/BC type schools in relation to willingness to mitigate it? E.g., the odds of my house being destroyed by a meteor, which would be a true disaster, is non-zero, but IMO too low for me to pay extra to cover as a rider on my home insurance, if that isn't already covered. Well OK, if the rider was a trivial amount, like $10 a year, I'd pay it. But not much more.

OTOH, a flood doing the same to my home is also very unlikely, but enough for me to pay about $500 a year for flood insurance just in case. So which is this ACC thing more like?

My feeling is that BC/WF types will likely believe that the odds are low enough to not be motivated to settle for anything that isn't very close to the money and exposure the GOR currently gives them, which is a price that will be too high for ESPN and/or FSU to pay to free FSU.

But that's just my opinion, maybe the parties involved will feel differently.

(02-26-2023 09:16 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 08:52 AM)CFBLurker Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 08:49 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  https://thespun.com/.amp/more/top-storie...acc-rumors

Multiple sites reporting this. $120 million seems very low to me especially given OUTs numbers for one year.

FSU can take.it to court and risk it and potentially win, but if they lose they're gonna be broke.

Nope.

FSU has little to lose taking it to court. They can spend up to the cost of being in the ACC rather than SEC before it was a mistake to challenge.

The ACC schools trying to hold up the GOR, particularly the BC types? A lot to lose. An unfavorable ruling, and they lose the one thing keeping the P2 from taking 4-6 schools.

Espn likely wants to avoid this going to court.

The odds of such ruling is non zero, and administrators are risk averse. Remove the disaster scenario as a possibility by finding a settlement.

If there are 6 ACC schools with P2 offer, the madman approach can also be utilized due to the asymmetrical nature of this

What are they going to take to court? That they signed a contract, but now they want a divorce, but don't want to pay alimony?

No other ACC school would attempt to move until they learned what would happen with FSU.

(02-26-2023 10:28 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  There is no doubt much more to this story than what we know. But I don't believe that AD Alford is unaware of the GoR, or failed to mention it to the Board of Trustees hoping it won't come up as an issue. Which tells me that Alford knows something about the situation that we don't....and surely he is one of those who has made the pilgrimage to the crumbling plantation house on Tobacco Road to read the GoR, or has dispatched his underlings to do so. The double-secret probation ACC handling of their Precious combined with Alford's comments makes me wonder if he has reason to believe the GoR isn't going to be a factor at all?

Rookie mistake.

(02-26-2023 10:28 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  There is no doubt much more to this story than what we know. But I don't believe that AD Alford is unaware of the GoR, or failed to mention it to the Board of Trustees hoping it won't come up as an issue. Which tells me that Alford knows something about the situation that we don't....and surely he is one of those who has made the pilgrimage to the crumbling plantation house on Tobacco Road to read the GoR, or has dispatched his underlings to do so. The double-secret probation ACC handling of their Precious combined with Alford's comments makes me wonder if he has reason to believe the GoR isn't going to be a factor at all?

Saber rattling. Likely hoping to force some sort of compromise. I doubt there's a surefire loophole to escape the GOR and as others have said it's a HUGE risk to take.

(02-26-2023 09:16 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 08:52 AM)CFBLurker Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 08:49 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  https://thespun.com/.amp/more/top-storie...acc-rumors

Multiple sites reporting this. $120 million seems very low to me especially given OUTs numbers for one year.

FSU can take.it to court and risk it and potentially win, but if they lose they're gonna be broke.

Nope.

FSU has little to lose taking it to court. They can spend up to the cost of being in the ACC rather than SEC before it was a mistake to challenge.

The ACC schools trying to hold up the GOR, particularly the BC types? A lot to lose. An unfavorable ruling, and they lose the one thing keeping the P2 from taking 4-6 schools.

Espn likely wants to avoid this going to court.

The odds of such ruling is non zero, and administrators are risk averse. Remove the disaster scenario as a possibility by finding a settlement.

If there are 6 ACC schools with P2 offer, the madman approach can also be utilized due to the asymmetrical nature of this

Let's say that FSU decides that they're leaving tomorrow and they give the ACC notice. What does the SEC (or B1G) do? They do nothing until all claims with the ACC are ironed out, including working out something on FSU's broadcast rights until 2036. "Breaking" that agreement through litigation rather than negotiating their way out of it would likely prove impossible b/c it flies in the face of a LOT of precedent, but let's say that they somehow manage that, too. Then what? The SEC might even invite them in as full members from day 1. Ok.

But what happens when the next media rights deals get negotiated with the full knowledge that conferences cannot sign Grants of Rights anymore? EVERYBODY LOSES. FSU loses b/c they don't make as much money in their new conference as they could have with a GoR signed. The new members of the Conference lose b/c they make less money than they would have if those pests at FSU hadn't broken the GoR system that was making them all freaking rich. ESPN and all other potential future media rights partners lose b/c they now have no certainty regarding the composition of the teams in the Conference they're negotiating with.

Because of this, I think that it might not be the ACC that forces FSU to stay until 2036 (sans some sort of negotiated settlement at an earlier date ofc) but rather the SEC, the B1G, ESPN, Fox, etc etc etc. Nobody wants to kill the Golden Goose, and FSU won't even try because they know this. They're just trying to leverage a greater payout from the ACC for now.

(02-26-2023 09:52 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 09:16 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 08:52 AM)CFBLurker Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 08:49 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  https://thespun.com/.amp/more/top-storie...acc-rumors

Multiple sites reporting this. $120 million seems very low to me especially given OUTs numbers for one year.

FSU can take.it to court and risk it and potentially win, but if they lose they're gonna be broke.

Nope.

FSU has little to lose taking it to court.

Well, that's not true. First of all, legal fees in the millions, maybe tens of millions, exit fees in the tens of millions.

Second of all, if they lose the case, the ACC is still going to own FSU TV rights. But FSU isn't still going to be a member of the conference -- this only goes to court if FSU has left the ACC.

So either the new 18 or 20 team SEC all take a haircut to give FSU a share, or FSU doesn't collect for their TV rights.

Quote:They can spend up to the cost of being in the ACC rather than SEC before it was a mistake to challenge.

The ACC schools trying to hold up the GOR, particularly the BC types? A lot to lose. An unfavorable ruling, and they lose the one thing keeping the P2 from taking 4-6 schools.

Espn likely wants to avoid this going to court.

That's easily arranged. In the last 2 rounds of SEC expansion, the SEC office was crystal clear that they were not getting involved in the internal politics of another conference. Prospective SEC members have to get themselves clear of their previous conference.

So the SEC's habit is not going to be to move forward. And if their ESPN paymaster doesn't want this to happen, how does it happen? FSU is fighting not just the ACC in court, but ESPN.

ESPN doesn't want to nuke the value of the half-dozen big-time ACC games they have. Sure you'd gain 9 new SEC games with FSU and Clemson, but SEC + FSU, Clemson isn't adding new SEC markets the way Mizzou (St Louis, Kansas City) and A&M (all of Texas) did. And FSU and Clemson are not Oklahoma / Texas level brands.

From ESPN's perspective, they'd rather keep the money rolling in from the ACC and ACC Network as long as they can, and if FSU and Clemson bleed out, that's not really ESPN's problem.

A problem ten years out isn't really a problem for corporate executives. They're likely to be long gone by then.

People who really want FSU and Clemson in the SEC come up with complicated scenarios where, theoretically, P5 schools with 40,000 people in the stands "secure their future" past 2036.

The reality is there is nothing those schools can do that secures their 25 year future. The only security is in having a big whopping fanbase that tunes in to your games in the millions. Even the Illinois's and Mississippi State's aren't *secure*. They're only secure as long as Alabama and Ohio STate tolerate sharing the pie with them.

you're presuming that espn is against this move.

I think they'd be for a structured move that otherwise keeps the ACC intact.

Imagine that the loudest schools get to move to the SEC - FSU, Clemson, NC, and VT.

Yes, they'll be paying them more in the SEC, but it's worth it. And not just for all the reasons JRsec and others have noted. But this prevents a GOR court challenge - something espn likely does not want. And depending on backfill, likely stabilizes the ACC.

And also sets up the dominoes out west, which could lead to espn not spending on the PAC.

There are lots more reasons for espn to favor this as a structured move.

Not the least of which, is that if this turns messy, Fox could end up with FSU's media rights.

You play to win, or you might as well leave the field.

(02-26-2023 10:03 AM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  If this goes to court would the case be decided in Florida?

No, the Federal Government has already ruled that any contract disputes within the ACC would be decided in NC District Court in Greensboro.

(02-26-2023 10:10 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 09:52 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 09:16 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 08:52 AM)CFBLurker Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 08:49 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  https://thespun.com/.amp/more/top-storie...acc-rumors

Multiple sites reporting this. $120 million seems very low to me especially given OUTs numbers for one year.

FSU can take.it to court and risk it and potentially win, but if they lose they're gonna be broke.

Nope.

FSU has little to lose taking it to court.

Well, that's not true. First of all, legal fees in the millions, maybe tens of millions, exit fees in the tens of millions.

Second of all, if they lose the case, the ACC is still going to own FSU TV rights. But FSU isn't still going to be a member of the conference -- this only goes to court if FSU has left the ACC.

So either the new 18 or 20 team SEC all take a haircut to give FSU a share, or FSU doesn't collect for their TV rights.

Quote:They can spend up to the cost of being in the ACC rather than SEC before it was a mistake to challenge.

The ACC schools trying to hold up the GOR, particularly the BC types? A lot to lose. An unfavorable ruling, and they lose the one thing keeping the P2 from taking 4-6 schools.

Espn likely wants to avoid this going to court.

That's easily arranged. In the last 2 rounds of SEC expansion, the SEC office was crystal clear that they were not getting involved in the internal politics of another conference. Prospective SEC members have to get themselves clear of their previous conference.

So the SEC's habit is not going to be to move forward. And if their ESPN paymaster doesn't want this to happen, how does it happen? FSU is fighting not just the ACC in court, but ESPN.

ESPN doesn't want to nuke the value of the half-dozen big-time ACC games they have. Sure you'd gain 9 new SEC games with FSU and Clemson, but SEC + FSU, Clemson isn't adding new SEC markets the way Mizzou (St Louis, Kansas City) and A&M (all of Texas) did. And FSU and Clemson are not Oklahoma / Texas level brands.

From ESPN's perspective, they'd rather keep the money rolling in from the ACC and ACC Network as long as they can, and if FSU and Clemson bleed out, that's not really ESPN's problem.

A problem ten years out isn't really a problem for corporate executives. They're likely to be long gone by then.

People who really want FSU and Clemson in the SEC come up with complicated scenarios where, theoretically, P5 schools with 40,000 people in the stands "secure their future" past 2036.

The reality is there is nothing those schools can do that secures their 25 year future. The only security is in having a big whopping fanbase that tunes in to your games in the millions. Even the Illinois's and Mississippi State's aren't *secure*. They're only secure as long as Alabama and Ohio STate tolerate sharing the pie with them.

You’re asking a different question- whether FSU has a P2 invite. Many reasons as to why they likely do.

If they don’t, they won’t proceed. That doesn’t even need to be stated. Message boards are for wasting time, but you bringing this up is a waste even for message boards.

The point was clearly that if they do, then litigation makes sense for FSU. They’re not the one facing a big loss. Losing in court just maintains status quo for them, whereas losing in court is a huge loss to the schools trying to uphold GOR. Like most lawsuits successful in getting settlement, it’s asymmetrical.

And although that legal strategy may cost FSU money, they can spend up to their lost SEC earnings before it was not worth it. The schools on the other side without P2 invite? They don’t have that dynamic- again asymmetry that makes settlement appealing to the inherently risk averse administrators.

There are no guarantees but they won’t be as nihilistic as you. Getting realignment value out of the GOR is the best chance many schools have at a tenable outcome. Never mind keeping up with P2, with no changes to ACC through 2036, come 2036, many schools will be firing staff and dropping millions in budget.

If FSU leaves the ACC then sues them to regain the media rights that FSU happily signed over years ago, what is going to happen?

The SEC/B1G will wait and let the court case play out to its conclusion before offering membership to FSU. How long with that take? Several years at a minimum. 5 years? I don't know. That's a long time for FSU to be independent with no media rights coming in, and low odds of regaining said rights. And how is ESPN going to feel about FSU leaving them high and dry with diminished value for their ACC contract? You think they'll happily tell the SEC to shell out $75m a year? If I was ESPN I'd offer the SEC nothing for FSU unless they negotiated a settlement with the ACC that all parties could live with.

A much more likely scenario is that the SEC and B1G let FSU know that they want them when/if they resolve their issues with the ACC. Today? Tomorrow? 2036? Whenever, call us and you'll have the votes. But the risk that FSU would have to take to (hopefully) make an extra $30m a year for 13 years ($390m) would be far more than that potential $390m in additional revenues.

If's fun to talk about FSU somehow jailbreaking their way to the promised land in the SEC, but the reality is that they'll suffer through another decade of an ever-increasing media revenues gap before finally announcing in the early 2030s that they're planning to depart for the SEC.

(02-26-2023 09:53 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 09:20 AM)Section 200 Wrote:  As long as ESPN pays the ACC the same per school with FSU vs. without FSU, there are no damages. Only the exit fee applies. FSU is leaving the ACC before 2036.

I am not sure that ESPN paying the ACC the same per school with vs without FSU solves the GOR problem -

It solves the damages problem, because if the ACC is making the same money with South Florida replacing Florida State, ACC has no damages, or at most exit-fee damages.

But it doesn't "solve the GOR problem" of how you get FSU and their TV rights out of the ACC in the first place.

Quote: my understanding is that a GOR means the ACC owns the FSU media rights in-toto, such that if between now and 2036 FSU leaves the ACC and then sells its media rights for new money to anyone else, the ACC is entitled to that money. It's not a question of damages, but ownership. But I am not a lawyer and so may well be wrong.

Yeah, that's about it.

Quote:So let's assume I am wrong. What incentive would ESPN have to pay the ACC the full amount,

That's a pretty good question. JRSEC has the least bad answers I've seen, and it's a lot of handwaving about consolidation. A few months to a year ago it was all going to be paid for by the new CFP money and a 72-or-so team P3 breakaway. Lately it's been an ACC-SEC merger with unequal revenue sharing.

Quote:and then presumably pay FSU more to be in the SEC or some other conference?

Right, ESPN would be (in these scenarios) paying the ACC the same money (or at least the same per school), while paying the SEC a lot more money (adding FSU and Clemson, plus the customary per-school bump when the SEC expands). And for this new money, ESPN gets the valuable prize of ....

Quote:One thing that comes to mind is the prospect of a lot more games between FSU and SEC teams - FSU vs Auburn, FSU vs LSU, FSU vs Alabama, etc. But, IMO ESPN would have to pay the SEC considerably more to make them want to take FSU. If more $$$ are going to be made, the SEC will want some of that I think.

That's what ESPN is getting. But these are frankly average SEC games. FSU and Clemson are middle-of-the-pack fanbases in the SEC. I have an old spreadsheet of FBS Attendance 2013-18, because some clickbait site did the math for me and I cut and pasted it. Clemson and FSU are both below the SEC median for attendance over that span. (Both the 14 team SEC and 16 team SEC + UT, OU).

Quote:In the end I don't think ESPN would find the value of these games nearly high enough to be willing to pay the ACC $40m a year, FSU's share, for them.

But maybe we shall see.

I don't even think it's about FSU's share of the ACC contract. We have two examples of P5 programs losing 2 "kingpin" programs. One of them was able to stay at the same level in value, striking a media deal right before a possible market correction. The other is watching its value crash through the floor.

Is an ACC without Florida STate and Clemson inherently more valuable than the PAC-10? You lose 20M people from the footprint (South Carolina, Florida minus Miami metro), you lose your anchor football programs. The still-fledgling ACC Network takes a huge hit, and I'd expect cable systems in areas that are, at best, marginally "ACC Country" like New York City, Philadelphia and Florida-outside-Miami to stop paying "in-market" rates.

On the other hand, the ACC does provide "tonnage", to use the word of the last few weeks. An average of 2 Saturday games to ESPN/ABC every week plus, on average, another ESPN+ game or weeknight game. And in a couple of years the RSN deal finally expires, so another game or two a week (or maybe the Diamond Sports bankruptcy accelerates that). That gives ESPN some leverage when the Big 12 deal is up.

I'd think there's a small negative effect on the value of a Syracuse-Virginia game if they don't have Clemson and FSU in the league, but that doesn't seem to be the case for a Baylor - Iowa State game.