The unofficial online home for fans of the University of Cincinnati Bearcats. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

(01-09-2023 04:14 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  

(01-07-2023 06:55 PM)vabearcat Wrote:  X is a Final Four team. Their offensive efficiency is off the charts. 54% on field goals. 50% on 3-pointers and 81% of their free throws today against their nemesis, Villanova, including 10-10 free throws from Souley Bohm, a tremendous player. Have some defensive issues in the paint, but that team has everything offensively.

Here we go again.

X aint no final four team. They're sweet 16 at best.

The BE has been riding Villanova for years now. Now that they suck we'll see how good this league really is.

I'm sorry but I just don't see X on the same level as the Alabamas, Kansas' and heck, even the Houstons of the world.

This Xavier team reminds me of many of the recent Iowa teams. A lot of guys that can score. Post players that don't protect the rim that well but are very skilled offensively. Kenpom has them 7th in adjusted offense, but 79th in adjusted defense. One sided teams like Xavier very rarely make the final four.

For fun I tried to figure out what the Path to a tournament bid would look like...

barttorvik.com has a really good tourneycast / teamcast feature.

These next 3 games are huge. I gave us wins and then a loss at houston... Then let Bartorrvik project the rest. (including a trip to the conference tournament final). That projection has us 23-11 (12-6) and has us as the 10th team out.

Now for my next projection I had us run the table at home (while keeping our next 4 as 3-1 with a loss at Houston). That only got us to 24-10 (13-5) and had us on the bubble (5th team out).

The next simulation I added a road win over UCF. Same result 24-10 (13-5) but the 1st team out.

My final simulation I added a road win at ECU. That gets us to 25-9 (14-4) in the projection...and among the last 4 in. (in fact..the last team in).

I think they can lose 2-3 more games and have a chance, but they'd have to go 3-1 against UCF/Memphis (they need the quality wins) and probably have to make the conference tournament finals. (it still might not be enough, but that's the narrow path)

Next 5 games the only one that isn't a clear W or L is Memphis. Those are the types of games that make or break UC. Bottom of the AAC is dreadful as usual.

That NKU game and Temple game are really the difference in whether we're talking tournament action right now.

(01-12-2023 04:31 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  For fun I tried to figure out what the Path to a tournament bid would look like...

barttorvik.com has a really good tourneycast / teamcast feature.

These next 3 games are huge. I gave us wins and then a loss at houston... Then let Bartorrvik project the rest. (including a trip to the conference tournament final). That projection has us 23-11 (12-6) and has us as the 10th team out.

Now for my next projection I had us run the table at home (while keeping our next 4 as 3-1 with a loss at Houston). That only got us to 24-10 (13-5) and had us on the bubble (5th team out).

The next simulation I added a road win over UCF. Same result 24-10 (13-5) but the 1st team out.

My final simulation I added a road win at ECU. That gets us to 25-9 (14-4) in the projection...and among the last 4 in. (in fact..the last team in).

I think they can lose 2-3 more games and have a chance, but they'd have to go 3-1 against UCF/Memphis (they need the quality wins) and probably have to make the conference tournament finals. (it still might not be enough, but that's the narrow path)

It's crazy to think that a 24-win UC team won't make the tournament.

Every UC team with 22 or more wins has made the NCAA tournament, except one (1949, when the NCAA invited only 8 teams).

Four 22-win UC teams made the NCAA tournament: 1994, 2013, 2015, 2016.

And we've had three teams with fewer than 22 wins make the tourney (1966, 1975, 2003). In 2003, we got an at-large bid at 17-11 in C-USA.

(01-12-2023 05:53 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(01-12-2023 04:31 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  For fun I tried to figure out what the Path to a tournament bid would look like...

barttorvik.com has a really good tourneycast / teamcast feature.

These next 3 games are huge. I gave us wins and then a loss at houston... Then let Bartorrvik project the rest. (including a trip to the conference tournament final). That projection has us 23-11 (12-6) and has us as the 10th team out.

Now for my next projection I had us run the table at home (while keeping our next 4 as 3-1 with a loss at Houston). That only got us to 24-10 (13-5) and had us on the bubble (5th team out).

The next simulation I added a road win over UCF. Same result 24-10 (13-5) but the 1st team out.

My final simulation I added a road win at ECU. That gets us to 25-9 (14-4) in the projection...and among the last 4 in. (in fact..the last team in).

I think they can lose 2-3 more games and have a chance, but they'd have to go 3-1 against UCF/Memphis (they need the quality wins) and probably have to make the conference tournament finals. (it still might not be enough, but that's the narrow path)

It's crazy to think that a 24-win UC team won't make the tournament.

Every UC team with 22 or more wins has made the NCAA tournament, except one (1949, when the NCAA invited only 8 teams).

Four 22-win UC teams made the NCAA tournament: 1994, 2013, 2015, 2016.

And we've had three teams with fewer than 22 wins make the tourney (1966, 1975, 2003). In 2003, we got an at-large bid at 17-11 in C-USA.

C-USA was really good and UC also got the benefit of the doubt that year too due to getting some big non-conference wins.

I just want to see this team get the next 3 games so the rest of the seasons gets interesting.

Huggs was a master at playing the rpi game which was a ranking system that could be games.

I think teams also used to play fewer games

Look at the schedules and who those years' teams played and beat home, neutral and on the road.

Our biggest home win this year is what...Tulane? Biggest road win so far is dreadful Wichita. Biggest neutral win is UL who is @ #350 in the NET.

Our resume will not likely match our win total.

(01-12-2023 06:50 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Look at the schedules and who those years' teams played and beat home, neutral and on the road.

Our biggest home win this year is what...Tulane? Biggest road win so far is dreadful Wichita. Biggest neutral win is UL who is @ #350 in the NET.

Our resume will not likely match our win total.I

It’s why this has to beat UCF and Memphis just get into the NIT conversation.

(01-12-2023 06:54 PM)UCBearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(01-12-2023 06:50 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Look at the schedules and who those years' teams played and beat home, neutral and on the road.

Our biggest home win this year is what...Tulane? Biggest road win so far is dreadful Wichita. Biggest neutral win is UL who is @ #350 in the NET.

Our resume will not likely match our win total.I

It’s why this has to beat UCF and Memphis just get into the NIT conversation.

We've had better teams than this lose road games to worse teams than either of these. I'm not taking either game for granted

2019 we lost to kenpom 264 ecu.

Hell, 2015 we lost to sub 200 ecu and Tulane.

That 18-19' team that lost to ECU also beat teams like UCLA, a top 10 Houston squad and had a couple wins each against pretty good Wichita and SMU teams.

(01-12-2023 07:17 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  That 18-19' team that lost to ECU also beat teams like UCLA, a top 10 Houston squad and had a couple wins each against pretty good Wichita and SMU teams.

Yea. A much better team. I didn't say that to knock those teams. My point is i don't take winning on the road for granted.

I get ya. I have no recollection of the rest of that schedule...was my last season with season tix before moving north so I recall some of those games.

Dan Hoard and Terry Nelson apparently were discussing the possibility of Newman sitting the rest of the year to get a medical redshirt and come back and play next season.

Assuming he’ll get that from the NCAA and come back healthy enough to play (big ifs) I’m all for it.

(01-13-2023 09:00 AM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  Dan Hoard and Terry Nelson apparently were discussing the possibility of Newman sitting the rest of the year to get a medical redshirt and come back and play next season.

Assuming he’ll get that from the NCAA and come back healthy enough to play (big ifs) I’m all for it.

I heard that as well on the Bearcat Insider telecast this week. If we all believe Newman's veteran experience could fortify next year's team for the Big 12 gauntlet, I'm all in.

While I'm hopeful we see continued progress with this current team, I'm not sure the possibility of a a postseason this year would be bolstered sufficiently by his return, burning his eligibility in the final two months. With that said, I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.

(01-13-2023 09:00 AM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  Dan Hoard and Terry Nelson apparently were discussing the possibility of Newman sitting the rest of the year to get a medical redshirt and come back and play next season.

Assuming he’ll get that from the NCAA and come back healthy enough to play (big ifs) I’m all for it.

That would be huge.

(01-13-2023 10:25 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  

(01-13-2023 09:00 AM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  Dan Hoard and Terry Nelson apparently were discussing the possibility of Newman sitting the rest of the year to get a medical redshirt and come back and play next season.

Assuming he’ll get that from the NCAA and come back healthy enough to play (big ifs) I’m all for it.

I heard that as well on the Bearcat Insider telecast this week. If we all believe Newman's veteran experience could fortify next year's team for the Big 12 gauntlet, I'm all in.

While I'm hopeful we see continued progress with this current team, I'm not sure the possibility of a a postseason this year would be bolstered sufficiently by his return, burning his eligibility in the final two months. With that said, I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.

I am staring to wonder if having the majority of the guys that can return next come season back is way better than going in the portal again. Maybe continuity if even if the talent is lacking is better for year one the Big XII. Eventually you stop turning the roster over every season and build a culture. Clearly some guys will transfer or leave but I am not sure they number has to 6 or 7 every year.

Biggest need for Wes this off-season is to find an impact 4. The current guys at that position on the roster will get eaten alive in the Big 12.

Easier said than done.

(01-13-2023 12:20 PM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  Biggest need for Wes this off-season is to find an impact 4. The current guys at that position on the roster will get eaten alive in the Big 12.

Easier said than done.

I'd say impact 4 or 5. You could probably shift vik to the 4 if you found the right 5.

(01-13-2023 11:43 AM)UCBearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(01-13-2023 10:25 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  

(01-13-2023 09:00 AM)BcatMatt13 Wrote:  Dan Hoard and Terry Nelson apparently were discussing the possibility of Newman sitting the rest of the year to get a medical redshirt and come back and play next season.

Assuming he’ll get that from the NCAA and come back healthy enough to play (big ifs) I’m all for it.

I heard that as well on the Bearcat Insider telecast this week. If we all believe Newman's veteran experience could fortify next year's team for the Big 12 gauntlet, I'm all in.

While I'm hopeful we see continued progress with this current team, I'm not sure the possibility of a a postseason this year would be bolstered sufficiently by his return, burning his eligibility in the final two months. With that said, I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.

I am staring to wonder if having the majority of the guys that can return next come season back is way better than going in the portal again. Maybe continuity if even if the talent is lacking is better for year one the Big XII. Eventually you stop turning the roster over every season and build a culture. Clearly some guys will transfer or leave but I am not sure they number has to 6 or 7 every year.

Bolded, I've wondered the same regarding building culture vs. plug and play. James and Griffith will be talented additions next season but if we go by playing time for Skillings and Read this season as a baseline for prized recruits, there will need to be minutes filled by experienced players.

Without looking at the roster, what seniors have exhausted eligibility? Depending upon who goes, Newman could provide needed experience and maturity.