Im always amazed by how people don't see the big picture.

Ukraine is going to lose this war. Russia is stronger militarily and has 3 times the population of Ukraine. Ukraine is at full conscription and mobilization. Russia just started partial mobilization and hasn't gone to full mobilization. Ukraine is punching above it's weight due to western weapons (which are being depleted rapidly meaning they may run of out of resupply weapons).

As winter rolls around, western public support for the war will evaporate. Simply put, Ukraine is not essential to anyone in the West. The public cares more about extremely high heating and electricity bills than Ukraine. We're wasting billions on a corrupt country when we have problems at home.

Finally, Russia's annexation of eastern Ukraine was a master stroke. Those territories are never going back. Putin will use a small scale tactical nuke before losing the war. He could also just go total war destroying all civilian infrastructure (electrical grid). Imagine if they just dropped large MOAB type bombs on all cities and villages for capitulation. Or use chemical weapons etc.

The US won't go to nuclear war with Russia over Ukraine. Over NATO sure, but not Ukraine. Russia is more than willing to use nukes against Ukraine. Don't believe the propaganda that Ukraine can "win". No matter what happens they've already lost.

The West is pushing this war to enrich weapons contractors and to bleed Russia. None of the politicians give two turtle sh*TS about Ukraine.

(10-03-2022 03:51 PM)Claw Wrote:  

(10-03-2022 08:39 AM)Kruciff Wrote:  I really hope nukes never come in to the equation. There are so many places I want to go see in the country, and if it all gets turned into glass, that will never happen. Lake Baikal, Baikonur Cosmodrome (in Kazakhstan, technically), Ural mountains, Caucasus mountains, Siberia and the Far East... it'd be REALLY interesting if Putin's palace stays intact after he is dead and forgotten.

Putin won't nuke there. He'll nuke the U.S.
.

Zero chance of that. He’d nuke something in Ukraine if he were going to use a nuclear weapon. Nuking the US leaves America no other option but nuking the Russian homeland—-likely a decapitation strike that Nukes Moscow until it glows in the dark. If it gets to that point—-your clearly better off negotiating with anyone other than an off the rails Putin.

That said—Putin isn’t using nukes unless the existence of the Russian state is threatened—-and nobody is interested in even considering that. Nuclear armed nations are basically like massive “too big to fail” banks. Nobody is going to attack them because there is no point as long as they have a that nuclear trump card. That’s why all this Russian “security” talk is is a smoke screen. Nothing they can do with their borders comes close to the security guarantee they already have due to their massive nuclear arsenal. This war is about Putins vanity and nothing more. He wants to be a modern Katherine the Great.

(10-03-2022 04:17 PM)Jugnaut Wrote:  Im always amazed by how people don't see the big picture.

Ukraine is going to lose this war. Russia is stronger militarily and has 3 times the population of Ukraine. Ukraine is at full conscription and mobilization. Russia just started partial mobilization and hasn't gone to full mobilization. Ukraine is punching above it's weight due to western weapons (which are being depleted rapidly meaning they may run of out of resupply weapons).

As winter rolls around, western public support for the war will evaporate. Simply put, Ukraine is not essential to anyone in the West. The public cares more about extremely high heating and electricity bills than Ukraine. We're wasting billions on a corrupt country when we have problems at home.

Finally, Russia's annexation of eastern Ukraine was a master stroke. Those territories are never going back. Putin will use a small scale tactical nuke before losing the war. He could also just go total war destroying all civilian infrastructure (electrical grid). Imagine if they just dropped large MOAB type bombs on all cities and villages for capitulation. Or use chemical weapons etc.

The US won't go to nuclear war with Russia over Ukraine. Over NATO sure, but not Ukraine. Russia is more than willing to use nukes against Ukraine. Don't believe the propaganda that Ukraine can "win". No matter what happens they've already lost.

The West is pushing this war to enrich weapons contractors and to bleed Russia. None of the politicians give two turtle sh*TS about Ukraine.

If it was just about the paper military strength of each---this would be over.

Both the Russian and US armed forces were far more powerful than Afghanistans Taliban. We were much more powerful than N Vietnam's army. How'd those turn out?

The key is those wars were all far far more important to the citizens of the nation being invaded than they were to guys being sent to invade.

In this case, this war is far far more important to Ukrainian citizens than it is to the Russian man on the street who is going to be sent to fight the war. They know Russia is not endangered or really threatened. Mobilization in Ukraine was met with extra volunteers who didnt have to go to war. Older men and women who didnt have to go volunteered. Mobilization was met much differently in Russia. Sure---Russia can mobilize a much bigger army----but the government would probably lose control of their own population before they get that far with mobilization.....Worse yet, as tough as it been so far----defeating the Ukrainian Army is actually the easy part. As we saw in Iraq----trying to pacify the population once they win is harder and takes more troops than the actual war.

(10-03-2022 05:56 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  defeating the Ukrainian Army is actually the easy part. As we saw in Iraq----trying to pacify the population once they win is harder and takes more troops than the actual war.

True, but it wasn’t like that for the Allies in Italy/Germany/Japan in the 1940s.

(10-03-2022 04:17 PM)Jugnaut Wrote:  Im always amazed by how people don't see the big picture.

Ukraine is going to lose this war. Russia is stronger militarily and has 3 times the population of Ukraine. Ukraine is at full conscription and mobilization. Russia just started partial mobilization and hasn't gone to full mobilization. Ukraine is punching above it's weight due to western weapons (which are being depleted rapidly meaning they may run of out of resupply weapons).

As winter rolls around, western public support for the war will evaporate. Simply put, Ukraine is not essential to anyone in the West. The public cares more about extremely high heating and electricity bills than Ukraine. We're wasting billions on a corrupt country when we have problems at home.

Finally, Russia's annexation of eastern Ukraine was a master stroke. Those territories are never going back. Putin will use a small scale tactical nuke before losing the war. He could also just go total war destroying all civilian infrastructure (electrical grid). Imagine if they just dropped large MOAB type bombs on all cities and villages for capitulation. Or use chemical weapons etc.

The US won't go to nuclear war with Russia over Ukraine. Over NATO sure, but not Ukraine. Russia is more than willing to use nukes against Ukraine. Don't believe the propaganda that Ukraine can "win". No matter what happens they've already lost.

The West is pushing this war to enrich weapons contractors and to bleed Russia. None of the politicians give two turtle sh*TS about Ukraine.

It's a proxy war against Russia. It always was. We don't give a rip about Ukraine, except for the deep staters who were running bio-labs and such and our corruptocrats who loved the ease of money laundering.

The ease with which our propaganda networks convinced people that this was something that we needed to care about - SAVE Ukraine! - just shows how dumbed down and easily led our population has become.

(10-03-2022 06:04 PM)MileHighBronco Wrote:  

(10-03-2022 04:17 PM)Jugnaut Wrote:  Im always amazed by how people don't see the big picture.

Ukraine is going to lose this war. Russia is stronger militarily and has 3 times the population of Ukraine. Ukraine is at full conscription and mobilization. Russia just started partial mobilization and hasn't gone to full mobilization. Ukraine is punching above it's weight due to western weapons (which are being depleted rapidly meaning they may run of out of resupply weapons).

As winter rolls around, western public support for the war will evaporate. Simply put, Ukraine is not essential to anyone in the West. The public cares more about extremely high heating and electricity bills than Ukraine. We're wasting billions on a corrupt country when we have problems at home.

Finally, Russia's annexation of eastern Ukraine was a master stroke. Those territories are never going back. Putin will use a small scale tactical nuke before losing the war. He could also just go total war destroying all civilian infrastructure (electrical grid). Imagine if they just dropped large MOAB type bombs on all cities and villages for capitulation. Or use chemical weapons etc.

The US won't go to nuclear war with Russia over Ukraine. Over NATO sure, but not Ukraine. Russia is more than willing to use nukes against Ukraine. Don't believe the propaganda that Ukraine can "win". No matter what happens they've already lost.

The West is pushing this war to enrich weapons contractors and to bleed Russia. None of the politicians give two turtle sh*TS about Ukraine.

It's a proxy war against Russia. It always was. We don't give a rip about Ukraine, except for the deep staters who were running bio-labs and such and our corruptocrats who loved the ease of money laundering.

The ease with which our propaganda networks convinced people that this was something that we needed to care about - SAVE Ukraine! - just shows how dumbed down and easily led our population has become.

Same ones that fell for China flu scam

(10-03-2022 06:03 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(10-03-2022 05:56 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  defeating the Ukrainian Army is actually the easy part. As we saw in Iraq----trying to pacify the population once they win is harder and takes more troops than the actual war.

True, but it wasn’t like that for the Allies in Italy/Germany/Japan in the 1940s.

We (and our allies) were fully mobilized and had the numbers necessary after the war. lol---It also helped that we had cool stuff like food. Its not impossible to pacify a population in places like Iraq----it just requires a lot more troops than we had any desire to send. It also helped that they knew early on we were not staying.

(10-03-2022 06:27 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  We (and our allies) were fully mobilized and had the numbers necessary after the war. lol---It also helped that we had cool stuff like food. Its not impossible to pacify a population in places like Iraq----it just requires a lot more troops than we had any desire to send. It also helped that they knew early on we were not staying.

Agreed. But I would say those are the relevant variables — along with a willingness to accept the loss of innocent life in order to kill all the bad guys — that caused Iraq/Afghanistan to turn out the way did, and not some inherent logistical/strategic difficulty in pacifying civilians. If they know you’re not here to play, they will fall in line, and they’ll actually do it rather quickly. Think of how MacArthur walked around Tokyo without any escort or weapons.

The people who clutch pearls about that conflict somehow find a new reeeeee every week.

(10-03-2022 05:21 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-03-2022 03:51 PM)Claw Wrote:  

(10-03-2022 08:39 AM)Kruciff Wrote:  I really hope nukes never come in to the equation. There are so many places I want to go see in the country, and if it all gets turned into glass, that will never happen. Lake Baikal, Baikonur Cosmodrome (in Kazakhstan, technically), Ural mountains, Caucasus mountains, Siberia and the Far East... it'd be REALLY interesting if Putin's palace stays intact after he is dead and forgotten.

Putin won't nuke there. He'll nuke the U.S.
.

Zero chance of that. He’d nuke something in Ukraine if he were going to use a nuclear weapon. Nuking the US leaves America no other option but nuking the Russian homeland—-likely a decapitation strike that Nukes Moscow until it glows in the dark. If it gets to that point—-your clearly better off negotiating with anyone other than an off the rails Putin.

That said—Putin isn’t using nukes unless the existence of the Russian state is threatened—-and nobody is interested in even considering that. Nuclear armed nations are basically like massive “too big to fail” banks. Nobody is going to attack them because there is no point as long as they have a that nuclear trump card. That’s why all this Russian “security” talk is is a smoke screen. Nothing they can do with their borders comes close to the security guarantee they already have due to their massive nuclear arsenal. This war is about Putins vanity and nothing more. He wants to be a modern Katherine the Great.

I disagree here. Putin is not going to **** where he eats. He wants an uncontaminated Ukraine.

He bombs us.

All the EU including Ukraine will push the U.S. not to retaliate and contaminate a large part of the land mass.

Biden will choose not to retaliate nuclearly in the name of ecology.

Russian Army Gives Way in Two Areas Returning More Annexed Land to Its Rightful Owner

(10-04-2022 09:42 AM)Claw Wrote:  I disagree here. Putin is not going to **** where he eats. He wants an uncontaminated Ukraine.

He bombs us.

All the EU including Ukraine will push the U.S. not to retaliate and contaminate a large part of the land mass.

Biden will choose not to retaliate nuclearly in the name of ecology.

I think the odds of Putin using a nuke are very low. Maybe in the single digit percentage range.

If he does, it will likely be a low-yield tactical nuclear weapon above a Ukrainian military installment. This would not contaminate a large part of Ukraine. Putin could also turn around and say that if Ukraine does not capitulate, Kiev is next. Again, I don't think this will happen, but IMO it is the most likely scenario in which a nuclear weapon is used.

There's even less of a chance that Putin uses a nuke on US or Nato territory. And should he make the insane decision to fire a ICBM at the US, we would 100% have to respond in kind. MAD doesn't work unless the destruction is mutually assured!

(10-04-2022 09:42 AM)Claw Wrote:  

(10-03-2022 05:21 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-03-2022 03:51 PM)Claw Wrote:  

(10-03-2022 08:39 AM)Kruciff Wrote:  I really hope nukes never come in to the equation. There are so many places I want to go see in the country, and if it all gets turned into glass, that will never happen. Lake Baikal, Baikonur Cosmodrome (in Kazakhstan, technically), Ural mountains, Caucasus mountains, Siberia and the Far East... it'd be REALLY interesting if Putin's palace stays intact after he is dead and forgotten.

Putin won't nuke there. He'll nuke the U.S.
.

Zero chance of that. He’d nuke something in Ukraine if he were going to use a nuclear weapon. Nuking the US leaves America no other option but nuking the Russian homeland—-likely a decapitation strike that Nukes Moscow until it glows in the dark. If it gets to that point—-your clearly better off negotiating with anyone other than an off the rails Putin.

That said—Putin isn’t using nukes unless the existence of the Russian state is threatened—-and nobody is interested in even considering that. Nuclear armed nations are basically like massive “too big to fail” banks. Nobody is going to attack them because there is no point as long as they have a that nuclear trump card. That’s why all this Russian “security” talk is is a smoke screen. Nothing they can do with their borders comes close to the security guarantee they already have due to their massive nuclear arsenal. This war is about Putins vanity and nothing more. He wants to be a modern Katherine the Great.

I disagree here. Putin is not going to **** where he eats. He wants an uncontaminated Ukraine.

He bombs us.

All the EU including Ukraine will push the U.S. not to retaliate and contaminate a large part of the land mass.

Biden will choose not to retaliate nuclearly in the name of ecology.

So he nukes us and ends up with a nuke on Moscow? Not seeing how your logic works there at all. Zero chance a nuke on US soil gets no nuclear retaliation—regardless of who is president.

Now---I can see a possibility that a nuclear strike in Ukraine doesnt get a US nuclear response----that would be the best case scenario for Putin if he uses a nuke in Ukraine----but that doesnt mean there would not be a US military response. General David Petaeus predicted the that the US would lead a NATO conventional response that wipes out every identifiable Russian combat formation in Ukraine and Crimea---along with sinking the entire Russian Black Sea Fleet. That would far offset any possible battlefield gain Putin might obtain through the use of a tactical nuke. I just dont see how using a nuclear weapon is helpful to Putin right now.

From where I sit Putin now has two choices----a big enough mobilization that tips the battlefield balance in Ukraine to his favor (mobilization that large would be horrifically unpopular inside Russia and would likely be largely offset with even more powerful weapons being supplied by NATO to Ukraine). The other is to engage in serious peace negotiations. I think he will try the current half-measure mobilization in order to strengthen his hand for peace negotiations. Since late March---he has lost far more territory in Ukraine than he has gained----and the pace of the territorial losses has increased of late. In the end, I think he will end up with less than he could have got back in January when everyone thought the Russian Army was capable of taking Ukraine in a few weeks---perhaps even days......and that is the reality---his negotiating position was far far better in January than it is today.

(10-04-2022 10:08 AM)BobcatEngineer Wrote:  

(10-04-2022 09:42 AM)Claw Wrote:  I disagree here. Putin is not going to **** where he eats. He wants an uncontaminated Ukraine.

He bombs us.

All the EU including Ukraine will push the U.S. not to retaliate and contaminate a large part of the land mass.

Biden will choose not to retaliate nuclearly in the name of ecology.

I think the odds of Putin using a nuke are very low. Maybe in the single digit percentage range.

If he does, it will likely be a low-yield tactical nuclear weapon above a Ukrainian military installment. This would not contaminate a large part of Ukraine. Putin could also turn around and say that if Ukraine does not capitulate, Kiev is next. Again, I don't think this will happen, but IMO it is the most likely scenario in which a nuclear weapon is used.

There's even less of a chance that Putin uses a nuke on US or Nato territory. And should he make the insane decision to fire a ICBM at the US, we would 100% have to respond in kind. MAD doesn't work unless the destruction is mutually assured!

To use a nuclear weapon, Putin would have to be certifiably insane. On top of that, the people around him would have to be insane to allow him to do that. I don't believe there is any chance all of them are certifiable.

Russia would be a pariah to the whole world. And western support to Ukraine would increase, not decrease. It would be a disaster for Russia.

(10-03-2022 04:17 PM)Jugnaut Wrote:  Im always amazed by how people don't see the big picture.

Ukraine is going to lose this war. Russia is stronger militarily and has 3 times the population of Ukraine. Ukraine is at full conscription and mobilization. Russia just started partial mobilization and hasn't gone to full mobilization. Ukraine is punching above it's weight due to western weapons (which are being depleted rapidly meaning they may run of out of resupply weapons).

As winter rolls around, western public support for the war will evaporate. Simply put, Ukraine is not essential to anyone in the West. The public cares more about extremely high heating and electricity bills than Ukraine. We're wasting billions on a corrupt country when we have problems at home.

Finally, Russia's annexation of eastern Ukraine was a master stroke. Those territories are never going back. Putin will use a small scale tactical nuke before losing the war. He could also just go total war destroying all civilian infrastructure (electrical grid). Imagine if they just dropped large MOAB type bombs on all cities and villages for capitulation. Or use chemical weapons etc.

The US won't go to nuclear war with Russia over Ukraine. Over NATO sure, but not Ukraine. Russia is more than willing to use nukes against Ukraine. Don't believe the propaganda that Ukraine can "win". No matter what happens they've already lost.

The West is pushing this war to enrich weapons contractors and to bleed Russia. None of the politicians give two turtle sh*TS about Ukraine.

? ....keep watching.

You couldn't be more wrong

Someone fed you a crock of ****. Gobble Gobble

(10-04-2022 01:45 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  

How significant are the “gains” it asks?

Significant enough to keep the money flowing.

Not significant enough to not need a lot more 3 days from now.

(10-04-2022 02:12 PM)indianashocker Wrote:  

(10-03-2022 04:17 PM)Jugnaut Wrote:  Im always amazed by how people don't see the big picture.

Ukraine is going to lose this war. Russia is stronger militarily and has 3 times the population of Ukraine. Ukraine is at full conscription and mobilization. Russia just started partial mobilization and hasn't gone to full mobilization. Ukraine is punching above it's weight due to western weapons (which are being depleted rapidly meaning they may run of out of resupply weapons).

As winter rolls around, western public support for the war will evaporate. Simply put, Ukraine is not essential to anyone in the West. The public cares more about extremely high heating and electricity bills than Ukraine. We're wasting billions on a corrupt country when we have problems at home.

Finally, Russia's annexation of eastern Ukraine was a master stroke. Those territories are never going back. Putin will use a small scale tactical nuke before losing the war. He could also just go total war destroying all civilian infrastructure (electrical grid). Imagine if they just dropped large MOAB type bombs on all cities and villages for capitulation. Or use chemical weapons etc.

The US won't go to nuclear war with Russia over Ukraine. Over NATO sure, but not Ukraine. Russia is more than willing to use nukes against Ukraine. Don't believe the propaganda that Ukraine can "win". No matter what happens they've already lost.

The West is pushing this war to enrich weapons contractors and to bleed Russia. None of the politicians give two turtle sh*TS about Ukraine.

? ....keep watching.

You couldn't be more wrong

Someone fed you a crock of ****. Gobble Gobble

Welll reasoned and detailed factual retort lol.*

I don't follow world history and military issues. Geo-political themes ... I'm lost.

But the more I read all the posts in threads involving the Russia vs. Ukraine war, the more one poster continues to make the most sense to a schmoe like myself: Attackcoog.

Attackcoog actually knows what he's talking about Vs some of these am radio listening conspiracy theorists who would tell you water isn't wet if it meant supporting a complaint about Ukraine in this mess.