.

With all the recent discussion of the possibility that the "P2" might expand to 20 teams, it's apt to pause and consider the fact that former Big XII commissioner Bob Bowlsby predicted that each the P5 conferences could eventually expand to 20 teams apiece.

If this were to happen, it would have a major impact on the structure of the FBS, since a 100-team P5 (current n=69) would need to add 31 more non-P5 teams. Were this to happen, most of the current G5 conferences would probably be poached into oblivion or would be forced to merge with other conferences in order to survive.
Very possibly, there would also be a fresh influx of FCS schools into the ranks of the FBS.

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"Bob Bowlsby Suggests Big 12 Could Expand to ’20 or 24 Teams’ "

https://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/2...-24-teams/

(08-14-2022 04:33 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

With all the recent discussion of the possibility that the "P2" might expand to 20 teams, it's apt to pause and consider the fact that former Big XII commissioner Bob Bowlsby predicted that each the P5 conferences could eventually expand to 20 teams apiece.

If this were to happen, it would have a major impact on the structure of the FBS, since a 100-team P5 (current n=69) would need to add 31 more non-P5 teams. Were this to happen, most of the current G5 conferences would probably be poached into oblivion or would be forced to merge with other conferences in order to survive.
Very possibly, there would also be a fresh influx of FCS schools into the ranks of the FBS.

(snip)

IMO there is no longer a P5, just a P2. So a 100-member "P5" would be meaningless, because we already have a new division in which there is the SEC and B1G at the top level, the level formerly occupied by the whole P5, and the other former P5 conferences are no longer "power" as they used to be.

To me, that has already happened, and so whether the nPAC, nB12 or ACC add any schools to move to 20 or not doesn't change the power balance. It just shifts schools from the new level 3 (G5) to the new level 2.

Just MO.

Who knows where this will end, and that really is the problem. There is no master plan, just a bunch of schools acting on their own. If the NCAA had any control, this growth would be controlled and have some sense to it.

My guess is it will be a pee2 when the music stops, the rest of the schools and conferences will beg for handouts and Hollow-promises “ the blue pill “…
Look hey y’all left outs, over here is the blue pill Vaccination line, step right up but stay in line you stupid Subordinate little b!tches

If a P2 exits, then a P5 does not. If the BIG/SEC are the P2. The ACC/B12/PAC can all go to 20, but they would have to kill off the AAC/CUSA/MWC/SunBelt to each get to 20. Even if they did that, they would all still be G-Leagues.

(08-14-2022 04:38 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 04:33 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

With all the recent discussion of the possibility that the "P2" might expand to 20 teams, it's apt to pause and consider the fact that former Big XII commissioner Bob Bowlsby predicted that each the P5 conferences could eventually expand to 20 teams apiece.

If this were to happen, it would have a major impact on the structure of the FBS, since a 100-team P5 (current n=69) would need to add 31 more non-P5 teams. Were this to happen, most of the current G5 conferences would probably be poached into oblivion or would be forced to merge with other conferences in order to survive.
Very possibly, there would also be a fresh influx of FCS schools into the ranks of the FBS.

(snip)

IMO there is no longer a P5, just a P2. So a 100-member "P5" would be meaningless, because we already have a new division in which there is the SEC and B1G at the top level, the level formerly occupied by the whole P5, and the other former P5 conferences are no longer "power" as they used to be.

To me, that has already happened, and so whether the nPAC, nB12 or ACC add any schools to move to 20 or not doesn't change the power balance. It just shifts schools from the new level 3 (G5) to the new level 2.

Just MO.

I agree with you for once, I’ll add that the ACC is a left out even though they haven’t been raided yet, even if they aren’t raided their on the outside looking in

The B10 and SEC have already lapped the ACC, Big 12 and Pac. If the Big Ten and SEC go to 20, that distance becomes greater, such that the other three 20-member leagues in this hypothetical will not be even remotely "power" on the same level of the SEC/Big Ten P2.

So if there eventually are five noteworthy 20-team leagues, we would have a P2, a M3 ("M" for either "major" or "middle") and then, likely a G2 or G3.

Regardless, I'm not so sure we'll see 100 programs in the "big boy structure." I tend to see it being capped at about 80.

(08-14-2022 05:12 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The B10 and SEC have already lapped the ACC, Big 12 and Pac. If the Big Ten and SEC go to 20, that distance becomes greater, such that the other three 20-member leagues in this hypothetical will not be even remotely "power" on the same level of the SEC/Big Ten P2.

So if there eventually are five noteworthy 20-team leagues, we would have a P2, a M3 ("M" for either "major" or "middle) and then, likely a G2 or G3.

That may be what happens, but if there are three "M" conferences, they may vary considerably in strength. The strongest "M" conferences in each sport may be able to remain competitive with the P2 in football and basketball. Even the weaker "M" conferences might be surprisingly competitive, just as the AAC was surprisingly competitive in 2019, with 4 football teams in the top 25.

None of the current "P5" conferences would be expected to lose their A5 status as autonomy conferences.

(08-14-2022 05:12 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Regardless, I'm not so sure we'll see 100 programs in the "big boy structure." I tend to see it being capped at about 80.

That's possible. The PAC seems to have relatively little interest in expanding. However, I would be surprised if the Big XII and ACC don't expand to 20 to match the Big Ten & SEC.

If it's capped at 80, these could be the first 10-11 schools that might make their way into an expanded Big XII and ACC:

Big XII: SMU, SDSU, Fresno St., Boise St., CSU; possibly Memphis & USF

ACC: USF, Temple, Tulane, Memphis, & Louisiana; possibly UConn


NOTE: Strongest FB additions (as of mid-2022) highlighted in bold; the strongest BB additions (as of mid-2022) are underlined.
.

The question in the OP asks if the SEC and B1G expand to 20 teams each would the remaining 28 schools currently considered P5 in three conferences add a total of 32 more teams from the ranks of the G5. That's an easy one to answer.

No.

No

(08-14-2022 04:38 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 04:33 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

With all the recent discussion of the possibility that the "P2" might expand to 20 teams, it's apt to pause and consider the fact that former Big XII commissioner Bob Bowlsby predicted that each the P5 conferences could eventually expand to 20 teams apiece.

If this were to happen, it would have a major impact on the structure of the FBS, since a 100-team P5 (current n=69) would need to add 31 more non-P5 teams. Were this to happen, most of the current G5 conferences would probably be poached into oblivion or would be forced to merge with other conferences in order to survive.
Very possibly, there would also be a fresh influx of FCS schools into the ranks of the FBS.

(snip)

IMO there is no longer a P5, just a P2. So a 100-member "P5" would be meaningless, because we already have a new division in which there is the SEC and B1G at the top level, the level formerly occupied by the whole P5, and the other former P5 conferences are no longer "power" as they used to be.

To me, that has already happened, and so whether the nPAC, nB12 or ACC add any schools to move to 20 or not doesn't change the power balance. It just shifts schools from the new level 3 (G5) to the new level 2.

Just MO.

Yeah its seems like its going to be a P2 followed by a "guilded class" of FBS conferences behind them making 15-35 million revs per year, enough to stay players outside of football. This of course following more SEC/B1G expansion to dilute the PAC and ACC even further.

PAC and CUSA might not even make it to the next CFP contract which could be a 6+10 shared by 8 FBS conferences.

Adding too many G5 schools to a P5 will only expedite the loss of power status. IMO, power conferences need members that are 1) competing for national championships and 2j are financially healthy.

Traditionally, only 60 to 70 schools have been power programs. With the growth in P2 media rights, there will be fewer power programs in the next decade…table stakes for power status are increasing rapidly. For example, it’s going to be very difficult for Cincinnati and/or UCF to generate revenues of power programs. The new B12 may have stabilized its existence with a 4 team expansion, but they’ve also likely diluted their per team earnings to a level that almost guarantees that they will not be considered a “power” conference in the future.

If the P2 expand to 20 members each, there is a chance for one additional power conference. The next best 16 to 24 programs would need to combine under one national umbrella. Without consolidation of the next tier’s best programs, the M3 will all be relegated to non-power status.

(08-14-2022 09:45 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  Adding too many G5 schools to a P5 will only expedite the loss of power status...

That's one possibility, which we might call "the zero-sum game hypothesis."

However, there is another possibility:

Adding 20 or 30 more P5 schools, from the ranks of the P5 could be a viewership bonanza for the networks. No one will lose their power conference status.

It could be a win-win situation. 20 or 30 G5 schools could receive enough broadcasting revenue that their athletic departments won't operate at a major loss. As a result, their students will benefit from lower tuition & fees.

Make that a win-win-win...

The P5 will not exist at that point.

There will be a P2 and possibly a third next level conference and, if some schools are lucky, maybe a fourth next level league. The total power ranks among those 3 or 4 leagues will likely be around the same number of total power teams as now (with it being more likely that the power ranks are materially reduced as opposed to materially increased).

Outside of Memphis and SMU, I don't see the Big12 having any more schools that "fit" for that conference.

If/when the ACC loses a couple teams to the P2, I think it's feasible to think they may take a look at the SBC to reload. That won't be for another decade, and that's an eternity in FBS

(08-14-2022 09:45 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  Adding too many G5 schools to a P5 will only expedite the loss of power status. IMO, power conferences need members that are 1) competing for national championships and 2j are financially healthy.

Traditionally, only 60 to 70 schools have been power programs. With the growth in P2 media rights, there will be fewer power programs in the next decade…table stakes for power status are increasing rapidly. For example, it’s going to be very difficult for Cincinnati and/or UCF to generate revenues of power programs. The new B12 may have stabilized its existence with a 4 team expansion, but they’ve also likely diluted their per team earnings to a level that almost guarantees that they will not be considered a “power” conference in the future.

If the P2 expand to 20 members each, there is a chance for one additional power conference. The next best 16 to 24 programs would need to combine under one national umbrella. Without consolidation of the next tier’s best programs, the M3 will all be relegated to non-power status.

Schools like Texas and USC have left behind their former conference mates in a P5 with future post season format that will include some form of autobids to keep them satisfied.

P2 at 20-24 teams are going to be so far ahead of what's left of the M3 there is no way they'll be able to combine and squeeze any value out of it. That is why you see them inflate back to 14-16 and stay regional with G5 schools.

I don't think the traditional 60 or so power conference teams have automatic seats at the big boy table. This P2 movement is a way of squeezing the Washington State's and Wake Forest's down the pecking order into middle tier conferences that resemble Big East 1.0 in strength. Credible enough to have a Top 5 team but clearly second tier.

(08-15-2022 01:13 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 09:45 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  Adding too many G5 schools to a P5 will only expedite the loss of power status. IMO, power conferences need members that are 1) competing for national championships and 2j are financially healthy.

Traditionally, only 60 to 70 schools have been power programs. With the growth in P2 media rights, there will be fewer power programs in the next decade…table stakes for power status are increasing rapidly. For example, it’s going to be very difficult for Cincinnati and/or UCF to generate revenues of power programs. The new B12 may have stabilized its existence with a 4 team expansion, but they’ve also likely diluted their per team earnings to a level that almost guarantees that they will not be considered a “power” conference in the future.

If the P2 expand to 20 members each, there is a chance for one additional power conference. The next best 16 to 24 programs would need to combine under one national umbrella. Without consolidation of the next tier’s best programs, the M3 will all be relegated to non-power status.

Schools like Texas and USC have left behind their former conference mates in a P5 with future post season format that will include some form of autobids to keep them satisfied.

P2 at 20-24 teams are going to be so far ahead of what's left of the M3 there is no way they'll be able to combine and squeeze any value out of it. That is why you see them inflate back to 14-16 and stay regional with G5 schools.

I don't think the traditional 60 or so power conference teams have automatic seats at the big boy table. This P2 movement is a way of squeezing the Washington State's and Wake Forest's down the pecking order into middle tier conferences that resemble Big East 1.0 in strength. Credible enough to have a Top 5 team but clearly second tier.

When you say “ I don’t think “ in your last paragraph says it all, tells you all you need to know about old school thinking.
Todays world is moving fast and the pee2 is already yesterday’s news, this upcoming football season seems like a lame duck season already and after this season is over we’re supposed to be given the pee2 !, … ok…
So for you Kit Cat to say there is no value in the remaining conferences is your opinion and I dare to suggest an old school opinion that renders you blind to the real value of said remaining conferences or mybe your just being emotional and making bold statements based on emotional Fortitude ?, either way when Disney, espn are done ripping apart college football their might not be many of us fans left, which might have been their plan all along.
However The pee2 separation provides a great opportunity for the remaining conferences to forum their own league and claim their own national champion, oh sure you say the pee2 is the big boy table, ok it’s your table and it’s this table you lay your emotions down on but not mine, I put my emotions down on another table, you know that other national championship trophy! Yup the real national championship
Old school emotional = “ I don’t think “

(08-14-2022 09:58 PM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 09:45 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  Adding too many G5 schools to a P5 will only expedite the loss of power status...

That's one possibility, which we might call "the zero-sum game hypothesis."

However, there is another possibility:

Adding 20 or 30 more P5 schools, from the ranks of the P5 could be a viewership bonanza for the networks. No one will lose their power conference status.

It could be a win-win situation. 20 or 30 G5 schools could receive enough broadcasting revenue that their athletic departments won't operate at a major loss. As a result, their students will benefit from lower tuition & fees.

Make that a win-win-win...

There is no viewership bonanza to be gained by having twice as many unattractive games on the schedule. The M3 schools aren't going to unilaterally surrender $20 million or more each in media revenue just so more schools that don't have many fans can call themselves "power schools".

Won't happen. Realignment is driven by the media packages. That means it's value driven.

Further expansion of the SEC and B1G will be driven by two factors, greater market access needs of the providers and size envy. You get to 20 by the B1G deeding to shore up it's western flank backed by media companies who want the west coast cities, where many of the providers and sponsors HQs are located; Notre Dame is the necessary catalyst. The SEC would be driven by ESPN wanting to maximize it's property to stay even with the B1G adding a power like Clemson and to fill out it's media footprint with schools like North Carolina and Miami.

So let's take 8 properties off the board: Notre Dame, Stanford, Oregon and Washington in the B1G, then Clemson, North Carolina, Florida State and Miami in the SEC. What happens with the other conferences.

The ACC would be cut down to 10:
Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Wake, Pitt, BC and NC State.

Who adds value to them in G5? Who is even worth looking at? To the latter I'd suggest a few AAC schools and a Big East member: SMU, Memphis, Temple, South Florida, Army and/or Navy (obviously Football only) and UConn. None of the six "half share" schools added from C-USA are anywhere near ACC level. ECU would not be considered, nor would Tulsa or Tulane.

Taking two, say UConn and Memphis or SMU could bolster Basketball. South Florida maybe helps football a little along with Memphis or SMU.

Frankly going to 12 (maybe) or at most 14 (unlikely) is all I can see the ACC doing. To add anyone they really need their media provider pay for it. 20 is absolutely out of the question.

The Pac-12 would likely collapse if and when the Big Ten decides to complete it's west coast takeover. You have to assume Stanford, Oregon and Washington are gone. This would prompt Arizona and Colorado at a minimum to bolt for the Big 12. The remnants would become the new Mountain West, as they'd have to absorb San Diego State, UNLV, Fresno State, Boise State and Colorado State just to be viable at 10. But such potential dilution would likely lead Arizona State, Utah and Cal to jump ship as well, and head to the Big 12.

The Big 12 is the one conference that could hit 20, if you take all 7 remaining Pac-12 schools plus San Diego State, or 18 schools if you choose to pass on Oregon State and Washington State, relegating them to the Mountain West.

You wind up with four conferences not five. If you stay at five then the Big 12 stays at 12, the ACC shrinks to maybe 12 with a couple additions to make up for losses, and the Pac-12 adds SDSU maybe SMU and somebody else to get back to 10. Either way you are looking at somewhere between a low of 28 (2 conferences) and a high of 34 schools (three conferences), but more likely in the middle; put the over/under at 30. That's just not near the 60 required for Bowlsby's concept.

(08-15-2022 02:26 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
Further expansion of the SEC and B1G will be driven by two factors, greater market access needs of the providers and size envy. You get to 20 by the B1G deeding to shore up it's western flank backed by media companies who want the west coast cities, where many of the providers and sponsors HQs are located; Notre Dame is the necessary catalyst. The SEC would be driven by ESPN wanting to maximize it's property to stay even with the B1G adding a power like Clemson and to fill out it's media footprint with schools like North Carolina and Miami.

So let's take 8 properties off the board: Notre Dame, Stanford, Oregon and Washington in the B1G, then Clemson, North Carolina, Florida State and Miami in the SEC. What happens with the other conferences.

The ACC would be cut down to 10:
Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Wake, Pitt, BC and NC State.

Who adds value to them in G5? Who is even worth looking at? To the latter I'd suggest a few AAC schools and a Big East member: SMU, Memphis, Temple, South Florida, Army and/or Navy (obviously Football only) and UConn.

Agree that SMU, Memphis, Temple, USF, UConn, and Navy (if they'd be willing) would be likely additions for the ACC in this type of scenario.

That would get the ACC back to 15 (or 16), assuming that they lose 5 schools.

If they wanted to be a 20-team conference, they could add Tulane, Louisiana, Buffalo, and one of the Carolina schools (ECU, Coastal Carolina, or App. State).

(08-15-2022 02:26 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The Pac-12 would likely collapse if and when the Big Ten decides to complete it's west coast takeover. You have to assume Stanford, Oregon and Washington are gone. This would prompt Arizona and Colorado at a minimum to bolt for the Big 12. The remnants would become the new Mountain West, as they'd have to absorb San Diego State, UNLV, Fresno State, Boise State and Colorado State just to be viable at 10. But such potential dilution would likely lead Arizona State, Utah and Cal to jump ship as well, and head to the Big 12...

The Big 12 is the one conference that could hit 20...

That's one possibility. Another is that the PAC remainers would absorb most of the MWC (and possibly SMU, UTEP, and/or NMSU) and continue on as the PAC.

. . . . . . . . . .

Schools that might move up from G5 to P5:

MWC (all 12)

AAC (5 or 6): SMU, Memphis, Temple, South Florida, Navy, Tulane, ECU?

SBC (3): Louisiana, App. State, Coastal Carolina

CUSA (7): WKU, MTSU, UTSA, UAB, Marshall, UNT, UTEP

MAC (1): Buffalo

IND (2): UConn, NMSU

FCS (1): NDSU

.