How much of a hit do you think AAC 3.0's TV deal would take? It's already taking a hit w/ Houston, Cincy, UCF leaving. I suppose it begs the questions:

How much TV money were/is AAC 1.0 members receiving annually?

How much TV money are they projecting AAC 2.0 members to receive annually?

If Memphis, SMU, and say USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years or so, how much of a hit do you think it would take then?

To answer the legitimate questions:

https://csnbbs.com/thread-948877-post-18...id18280396


For your final question...why is it that sooooo many are convinced of the AAC's downfall with events of the last 11 months...but still have to invent additional losses, and Navy going independent and WSU back to the MVC, to be sure that the AAC isn't still head and shoulders above the G4 conferences?
Very telling...

(06-20-2022 11:49 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  To answer the legitimate questions:

https://csnbbs.com/thread-948877-post-18...id18280396


For your final question...why is it that sooooo many are convinced of the AAC's downfall with events of the last 11 months...but still have to invent additional losses, and Navy going independent and WSU back to the MVC, to be sure that the AAC isn't still head and shoulders above the G4 conferences?
Very telling...

Touchy much? Not only is it a legitimate question, I'd say it's pretty fair. I didn't mention any thing about the AAC's "downfall"...I'm just curious to see what current members would project their annual TV revenue to be if Memphis/SMU and someone like USF were to get poached (which at the rate things have gone the past 5-10 years, the idea shouldn't surprise anyone).

(06-20-2022 11:44 AM)TTT Wrote:  How much of a hit do you think AAC 3.0's TV deal would take? It's already taking a hit w/ Houston, Cincy, UCF leaving. I suppose it begs the questions:

How much TV money were/is AAC 1.0 members receiving annually?

How much TV money are they projecting AAC 2.0 members to receive annually?

If Memphis, SMU, and say USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years or so, how much of a hit do you think it would take then?

That all depends on what the AAC looks like as a whole in 5 years. If they excel then they certainly have the market numbers to make media partners interested. If they fall flat then they will be just as much of a Frankenstein's monster as C-USA. The most likely outcome is somewhere in between. If ESPN is willing to pay 2 to 3.5 mil per year for the additions they just made (many of which are not exactly world beaters right now) then I think they see it as a longer than 5 year investment.

There's a lot of factors that would go into that.

IF that happens, the recent additions would have to be evaluated. Do they bring enough eyes to justify keeping the deal where it's at? Are any of the 6 teams on an upward trajectory? What's the potential limits of any of the remaining schools?

IF the answer is no, could they poach some SBC or MWC teams? I'm guessing no (the MWC already prevented teams from going once). Or would they go for a Buffalo or another Market team like MTSU?

IF that's no, would the money differences entice a team like ECU to think of jumping ship? Would teams consider looking at the MWC?


The point of ^^^ all that is just to say, that hypothetical opens up a whole can of worms and any serious speculation would be very dependant on what happens after the first domino in that puzzle falls

(06-20-2022 11:49 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  To answer the legitimate questions:

https://csnbbs.com/thread-948877-post-18...id18280396


For your final question...why is it that sooooo many are convinced of the AAC's downfall with events of the last 11 months...but still have to invent additional losses, and Navy going independent and WSU back to the MVC, to be sure that the AAC isn't still head and shoulders above the G4 conferences?
Very telling...

The AAC was considered by many to be on life support after the big exodus a decade ago, and the league rallied really well. Going back to the Big East days, the league has a long history of building up programs. I think they'll continue to find innovative ways of inserting themselves into the national conversation.

(06-20-2022 11:49 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  To answer the legitimate questions:

https://csnbbs.com/thread-948877-post-18...id18280396


For your final question...why is it that sooooo many are convinced of the AAC's downfall with events of the last 11 months...but still have to invent additional losses, and Navy going independent and WSU back to the MVC, to be sure that the AAC isn't still head and shoulders above the G4 conferences?
Very telling...

The OP did none of those things. Why do you feel the need to assert that the AAC is "head and shoulders above the G4 conferences" as if the AAC were somehow "P6"? Are you whistling past the graveyard?

I can't claim to know the answers to the first two questions. As for how big of a TV deal hit they might/will take:

43% (6/14) of the 2023 AAC lineup is the 2022 C-USA lineup.
- If one school leaves (Memphis), that percentage is at least 46% "current C-USA" (6/13), and 50% if they backfill (7/14).
- If Memphis + USF/SMU leave, the percentage is 50% if they don't backfill (6/12), or 57% if they backfill (8/14).
- If Memphis, USF, and SMU leave, the percentage is 55% if they don't backfill (6/11), or 64% if they backfill (9/14).


Any future AAC losses will likely lead to the conference being 50%+ "current C-USA". The state of the TV contract in C-USA is...not pretty. Those teams don't attract eyeballs. ESPN can help with that, but it's realistic that they'll decide what to pay them partly based on the eyeballs they attract now.

If you're looking for an idea of how big of a hit they might take with 1-3 more departures, compare the current state of the AAC to the current state of C-USA. If I were a Tulane, Tulsa, Temple, Navy, or ECU fan, I wouldn't be happy about it.

It depends if the teams in big markets are doing well. Maybe Temple, Charlotte, UTSA get popular with some success.

(06-20-2022 11:44 AM)TTT Wrote:  If Memphis, SMU, and someone like USF get poached by a P5 in 5 years...

If?

More like when

(06-20-2022 01:15 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  

(06-20-2022 11:49 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  To answer the legitimate questions:

https://csnbbs.com/thread-948877-post-18...id18280396


For your final question...why is it that sooooo many are convinced of the AAC's downfall with events of the last 11 months...but still have to invent additional losses, and Navy going independent and WSU back to the MVC, to be sure that the AAC isn't still head and shoulders above the G4 conferences?
Very telling...

The AAC was considered by many to be on life support after the big exodus a decade ago, and the league rallied really well. Going back to the Big East days, the league has a long history of building up programs. I think they'll continue to find innovative ways of inserting themselves into the national conversation.

UCF won a Fiesta Bowl and Cinci went to the sweet 16 that year or the year before. The AAC is not starting from the same point this time from a performance perspective. If they lose a couple more they will be very close to CUSA 3.0 in make up. I can tell you what happened to that TV contract

The purpose of the AAC expansion was to have the "original" schools maintain the same TV revenue while the new schools would split the remainder.

This means the split will be as follows:

Each of the "original" schools receive a 1/11th share of the TV revenue (which would be 9.09% each) just as they did previously. Navy would receive that share for football-allocated TV revenue while Wichita State would receive that share for basketball and everything else.

That leaves the 6 new schools to split a total 3/11th share of the TV revenue, which translates to a 1/22nd share (or 4.55% share) for each school.

Simply put, the new schools will make half as much TV revenue as the original AAC schools. I'll leave it up to others to confirm how much ESPN is actually going to pay the AAC.

(06-20-2022 02:28 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  If you're looking for an idea of how big of a hit they might take with 1-3 more departures, compare the current state of the AAC to the current state of C-USA. If I were a Tulane, Tulsa, Temple, Navy, or ECU fan, I wouldn't be happy about it.

Especially Tulane, Tulsa, and ECU since they were conference mates with most of the new arrivals already. Seems like they'd be going in a big circle

(06-20-2022 03:18 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  UCF won a Fiesta Bowl and Cinci went to the sweet 16 that year or the year before. The AAC is not starting from the same point this time from a performance perspective. If they lose a couple more they will be very close to CUSA 3.0 in make up. I can tell you what happened to that TV contract

The AAC really can't do get any less TV money than they did when the AAC first started, and the league managed just fine. I agree the performance of the current membership doesn't stand out, but I think the ambition is still there. Let's give it a few years to see how it plays out.

(06-20-2022 03:46 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  

(06-20-2022 03:18 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  UCF won a Fiesta Bowl and Cinci went to the sweet 16 that year or the year before. The AAC is not starting from the same point this time from a performance perspective. If they lose a couple more they will be very close to CUSA 3.0 in make up. I can tell you what happened to that TV contract

The AAC really can't do get any less TV money than they did when the AAC first started, and the league managed just fine. I agree the performance of the current membership doesn't stand out, but I think the ambition is still there. Let's give it a few years to see how it plays out.

It can certainly be cut pretty deeply.

(06-20-2022 03:49 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  It can certainly be cut pretty deeply.

I'm not saying they'll make less than what they currently get, I'm saying there's no way they'll do worse than the original amount the AAC got. The AAC got a $2m/yr deal from ESPN. You effectively can't do worse than that (you could get $0 and it would basically be the same because $2m/yr isn't really moving the needle for these athletic depts).

So even from a starting point of $2m/yr, the AAC quickly emerged as a competitive conference with good TV ratings. They could do the same again.

It’s definitely worth considerably less if you further erode the top brands from the line up.

(06-20-2022 03:46 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  

(06-20-2022 03:18 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  UCF won a Fiesta Bowl and Cinci went to the sweet 16 that year or the year before. The AAC is not starting from the same point this time from a performance perspective. If they lose a couple more they will be very close to CUSA 3.0 in make up. I can tell you what happened to that TV contract

The AAC really can't do get any less TV money than they did when the AAC first started, and the league managed just fine. I agree the performance of the current membership doesn't stand out, but I think the ambition is still there. Let's give it a few years to see how it plays out.

I agree that conferences that have gone thru multiple losses and adds should be given a few years to see how things work out, including the AAC.

(06-20-2022 05:41 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  I agree that conferences that have gone thru multiple losses and adds should be given a few years to see how things work out, including the AAC.

Definitely. People on this board treat conferences with the same fanboism like the gaming console world. But it's silly. The new AAC may or may not succeed, way too early to tell.

Also, for any fans of G5 schools, as stever used to point out, it can benefit everyone when G5 conferences do well. Everyone should be cheering on the AAC vs the P5 because it raises all G5 boats.

(06-20-2022 06:17 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  

(06-20-2022 05:41 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  I agree that conferences that have gone thru multiple losses and adds should be given a few years to see how things work out, including the AAC.

Definitely. People on this board treat conferences with the same fanboism like the gaming console world. But it's silly. The new AAC may or may not succeed, way too early to tell.

Also, for any fans of G5 schools, as stever used to point out, it can benefit everyone when G5 conferences do well. Everyone should be cheering on the AAC vs the P5 because it raises all G5 boats.

On the stever theme ... where is stever?