Which AAC schools will end up joining P5 conferences before 2032?

Memphis has an outside chance.

Is there a "none of the above" category I missed?

It depends on how long the P5 last and the high revenue conferences go along with the system. Governance is already a problem to where simple agreements for the good of the industry can't be made. There is way to much self interest in the current system with the consolidation of power at the top. Of course this is America, so that's no big revelation. If I were a betting man major change is going to come. Why? GREED!!

Memphis and USF seem most likely from this conference. USF because they give a travel partner to UCF.

SMU is probably the only other school that has a shot here.

But a lot can change in 10 years. If ECU ever gets it together, I think they could have an outside shot. Don’t really see it for anyone else.

(06-11-2022 07:06 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Is there a "none of the above" category I missed?

That was my thought at first too. However, I did give USF a vote in case the B-12 goes to 14 after Texas and Oklahoma leave. If the B-12 goes to 14 my BEST GUESS is the addition of USF and Colorado St. Both give the B-12 additional TV market share in Denver Colorado and in Tampa Florida. CSU provides a bridge to BYU and USF provides additional Florida recruiting, a travel partner for UCF, and the War on 4 to finish the FB season. USF will have to get that new stadium done or at least started to become an expansion candidate though. JMO with Saturday morning coffee.

(06-11-2022 08:14 AM)panite Wrote:  

(06-11-2022 07:06 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Is there a "none of the above" category I missed?

That was my thought at first too. However, I did give USF a vote in case the B-12 goes to 14 after Texas and Oklahoma leave. If the B-12 goes to 14 my BEST GUESS is the addition of USF and Colorado St. Both give the B-12 additional TV market share in Denver Colorado and in Tampa Florida. CSU provides a bridge to BYU and USF provides additional Florida recruiting, a travel partner for UCF, and the War on 4 to finish the FB season. USF will have to get that new stadium done or at least started to become an expansion candidate though. JMO with Saturday morning coffee.

I think contract averaging might be a hurdle to adding more schools post OU & UT. Especially with legacy members who are getting revenue cuts that have large budgets to feed.

(06-11-2022 08:33 AM)Pirate Rep Wrote:  

(06-11-2022 08:14 AM)panite Wrote:  

(06-11-2022 07:06 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Is there a "none of the above" category I missed?

That was my thought at first too. However, I did give USF a vote in case the B-12 goes to 14 after Texas and Oklahoma leave. If the B-12 goes to 14 my BEST GUESS is the addition of USF and Colorado St. Both give the B-12 additional TV market share in Denver Colorado and in Tampa Florida. CSU provides a bridge to BYU and USF provides additional Florida recruiting, a travel partner for UCF, and the War on 4 to finish the FB season. USF will have to get that new stadium done or at least started to become an expansion candidate though. JMO with Saturday morning coffee.

I think contract averaging might be a hurdle to adding more schools post OU & UT. Especially with legacy members who are getting revenue cuts that have large budgets to feed.

I agree and that is why I said "if the B-12 expands". The conference will have to wait until it sees what it is worth in the next "TV rights" negotiation and move on from there. If there is a significant cut in TV revenue (which there probably will be), then the B-12 has a greater possibility of remaining at 12 to keep the revenue distribution as high as possible for each remaining member after Texas and Oklahoma leave.

This was the last boat out.

There are no more moves to be made. All of the big boys with any leverage at all are where they want to be.

And no, the B1G aint adding Kansas.

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It seems likely to me that the Big 12 is likely to expand to 16 to try to keep up with the SEC, as Commissioner Bowlsby initially suggested that they will do.

The fact that Bowlsby is moving on may have muddied the picture somewhat, especially if the main reason for him leaving was that he is too pro-expansion for certain Big 12 remainer presidents. However, even if that's the case, the Big 12 may not be able to remain competitive with the SEC unless it expands to 16, so that's what I believe will happen by 2030, if not sooner, although they might do it in two stages (2 + 2).

This would mean losing 2 or 3 AAC teams to the Big 12.

I also think that the Big Ten and ACC will feel the pressure to expand, as well, with the Big Ten adding two teams, and the ACC adding either one or two (or possibly one new full member and one non-FB member).

At that point, the PAC-12 would be the only P5 with fewer than 16 members, and I would expect them to add four members, mainly from the ranks of the MWC.

If all these things happen. The American could lose as many as 4, 5, or 6 teams to the P5 conferences.

Rice and Tulane to the PAC when it decides to be the Super Ivy League.

I give Memphis a 45% chance

USF a 25%

SMU 5%

Everyone else under 5

(06-11-2022 07:06 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Is there a "none of the above" category I missed?

I thought the same thing. I think there is 3 who have a shot, but that shot is less than 50-50. Memphis, SMU, and USF.

(06-11-2022 08:14 AM)panite Wrote:  

(06-11-2022 07:06 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Is there a "none of the above" category I missed?

That was my thought at first too. However, I did give USF a vote in case the B-12 goes to 14 after Texas and Oklahoma leave. If the B-12 goes to 14 my BEST GUESS is the addition of USF and Colorado St. Both give the B-12 additional TV market share in Denver Colorado and in Tampa Florida. CSU provides a bridge to BYU and USF provides additional Florida recruiting, a travel partner for UCF, and the War on 4 to finish the FB season. USF will have to get that new stadium done or at least started to become an expansion candidate though. JMO with Saturday morning coffee.

Nobody cares about a "bridge" to another school. It's what your school bring to the table. UCF and BYU doesn't need a "bridge" just like WV doesn't need a "bridge". Now, it's true that a 2nd team would help as a traveling partner, but if the team doesn't bring value, it's just another mouth to feed.
CSU bring zero to the table....I doubt very many people here wakes up Sat saying when is CSU FB/BB playing today. USF is similar to UCF...they're in a FB hotbed for recruits and they can be very successful, but USF need to start having a winning record to be relevant. Regardless if they built a new OCS or not, only 10K-15K will show up for games if they keep having a losing record.

(06-11-2022 09:16 AM)spenser Wrote:  Rice and Tulane to the PAC when it decides to be the Super Ivy League.

That could happen. Those two would appeal to the PAC, especially since they're both AAU/R1 schools, and a bonus would be tapping into the Central Time viewership zone.

(06-11-2022 09:03 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

It seems likely to me that the Big 12 is likely to expand to 16 to try to keep up with the SEC,

This would mean losing 2 or 3 AAC teams to the Big 12.

I also think that the Big Ten and ACC will feel the pressure to expand, as well, with the Big Ten adding two teams, and the ACC adding either one or two (or possibly one new full member and one non-FB member).

At that point, the PAC-12 would be the only P5 with fewer than 16 members, and I would expect them to add four members, mainly from the ranks of the MWC.

If all these things happen. The American could lose as many as 4, 5, or 6 teams to the P5 conferences.

I don't see the ACC adding, unless they could raid B12. That is possible but not very likely. I think they missed that chance last year. If the Big expands, and I have real doubt's they do, It likely would be from ACC as GOR expires or Pac 12.

The B12 could expand, but I have my doubts unless the Big hits Pac 12, If that happens either the Arizona schools or Colorado could make sense. If they go after AAC/MWC, I can't see them grabbing more than 2. If the BIG matches or beats SEC money I don't see much happening. There is no reason to go to 16 just to stay even with SEC size wise. SEC expanded because there were 2 blue bloods available. Other than Clemson, USC, and maybe FSU or NC. I don't see 2.

(06-11-2022 10:04 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(06-11-2022 09:03 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  .

It seems likely to me that the Big 12 is likely to expand to 16 to try to keep up with the SEC,

This would mean losing 2 or 3 AAC teams to the Big 12.

I also think that the Big Ten and ACC will feel the pressure to expand, as well, with the Big Ten adding two teams, and the ACC adding either one or two (or possibly one new full member and one non-FB member).

At that point, the PAC-12 would be the only P5 with fewer than 16 members, and I would expect them to add four members, mainly from the ranks of the MWC.

If all these things happen. The American could lose as many as 4, 5, or 6 teams to the P5 conferences.

I don't see the ACC adding, unless they could raid B12. That is possible but not very likely. I think they missed that chance last year. If the Big expands, and I have real doubt's they do, It likely would be from ACC as GOR expires or Pac 12.

The B12 could expand, but I have my doubts unless the Big hits Pac 12, If that happens either the Arizona schools or Colorado could make sense. If they go after AAC/MWC, I can't see them grabbing more than 2. If the BIG matches or beats SEC money I don't see much happening. There is no reason to go to 16 just to stay even with SEC size wise. SEC expanded because there were 2 blue bloods available. Other than Clemson, USC, and maybe FSU or NC. I don't see 2.

Representatives of Big 12 schools have identified five expansion schools that they're interested in:

Memphis, USF, SMU, Boise, and San Diego State.

Also, for the record, Commissioner Bowlsby has stated his view that all of the P5 conferences will expand to 16, sooner or later, to match the SEC.

If they do that, 12 current G5 schools would end up in P5 conferences.

.

Unfortunately I think none (as it will stand come July 1, 2023).

(06-11-2022 08:14 AM)panite Wrote:  

(06-11-2022 07:06 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Is there a "none of the above" category I missed?

That was my thought at first too. However, I did give USF a vote in case the B-12 goes to 14 after Texas and Oklahoma leave. If the B-12 goes to 14 my BEST GUESS is the addition of USF and Colorado St. Both give the B-12 additional TV market share in Denver Colorado and in Tampa Florida. CSU provides a bridge to BYU and USF provides additional Florida recruiting, a travel partner for UCF, and the War on 4 to finish the FB season. USF will have to get that new stadium done or at least started to become an expansion candidate though. JMO with Saturday morning coffee.

Well I am not as optimistic about USF as you are, so I hope you are right.

None of the above. it’s very very tough to move up the ladder my leftover AAC friends UC and Houston were at the altar a few years back only to then realize it was not real. It’s a rollercoaster. My advice is just accept what you are and learn to live with the AACUSA that you will become