(05-12-2022 11:05 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-04-2022 06:37 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

“Aren’t close” would seem to suggest these negotiations won’t end this week. This will continue to drag out.

Ive said from the start I thought the number would be 10 million for the base exit fee plus another 5 to leave a year early---for a total exit fee of 15 million each. Thats more than UConn paid per year when they left TWO years early (UConn paid an additional early exit penalty of 3.5 million per year when they left 2 years prior to fulfilling the 27 month waiting period).

Of course, Houston fans hope to avoid paying a penny more than UConn paid to leave the conference.

However, there's a huge difference: Houston is going to be paid 5 to 10 times as much to play in the Big 12 as UConn is being paid to play in the Big East, so Houston can EASILY afford to pay $2 to $5 million more to leave the conference than UConn did.

Moreover, UConn was under financial strain due to the losses their football program incurred and will continue to incur as a football independent.


It wouldn't be befitting of such schools - or of the Big 12 conference which they're joining - to try to weasel out of what they agreed to pay the conference when they agreed to the terms of exit fees and early exit penalties.



.

(05-18-2022 05:09 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-12-2022 11:05 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-04-2022 06:37 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

“Aren’t close” would seem to suggest these negotiations won’t end this week. This will continue to drag out.

Ive said from the start I thought the number would be 10 million for the base exit fee plus another 5 to leave a year early---for a total exit fee of 15 million each. Thats more than UConn paid per year when they left TWO years early (UConn paid an additional early exit penalty of 3.5 million per year when they left 2 years prior to fulfilling the 27 month waiting period).

Of course, Houston fans hope to avoid paying a penny more than UConn paid to leave the conference.

However, there's a huge difference: Houston is going to be paid 5 to 10 times as much to play in the Big 12 as UConn is being paid to play in the Big East, so Houston can EASILY afford to pay $2 to $5 million more to leave the conference than UConn did.

Moreover, UConn was under financial strain due to the losses their football program incurred and will continue to incur as a football independent.


It wouldn't be befitting of such schools - or of the Big 12 conference which they're joining - to try to weasel out of what they agreed to pay the conference when they agreed to the terms of exit fees and early exit penalties.



.

They should sell cars like this... "We're going to charge you more because 'You can afford to pay more.'"

(05-18-2022 05:09 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-12-2022 11:05 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-04-2022 06:37 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

“Aren’t close” would seem to suggest these negotiations won’t end this week. This will continue to drag out.

Ive said from the start I thought the number would be 10 million for the base exit fee plus another 5 to leave a year early---for a total exit fee of 15 million each. Thats more than UConn paid per year when they left TWO years early (UConn paid an additional early exit penalty of 3.5 million per year when they left 2 years prior to fulfilling the 27 month waiting period).

Of course, Houston fans hope to avoid paying a penny more than UConn paid to leave the conference.

However, there's a huge difference: Houston is going to be paid 5 to 10 times as much to play in the Big 12 as UConn is being paid to play in the Big East, so Houston can EASILY afford to pay $2 to $5 million more to leave the conference than UConn did.

Moreover, UConn was under financial strain due to the losses their football program incurred and will continue to incur as a football independent.


It wouldn't be befitting of such schools - or of the Big 12 conference which they're joining - to try to weasel out of what they agreed to pay the conference when they agreed to the terms of exit fees and early exit penalties.



.

The loss of Houston, UCF, and Cinci is much more damaging to the conference either individually or collectively than the loss of UCONN. Different ball park, IMO.

(05-18-2022 05:49 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 05:09 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-12-2022 11:05 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-04-2022 06:37 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

“Aren’t close” would seem to suggest these negotiations won’t end this week. This will continue to drag out.

Ive said from the start I thought the number would be 10 million for the base exit fee plus another 5 to leave a year early---for a total exit fee of 15 million each. Thats more than UConn paid per year when they left TWO years early (UConn paid an additional early exit penalty of 3.5 million per year when they left 2 years prior to fulfilling the 27 month waiting period).

Of course, Houston fans hope to avoid paying a penny more than UConn paid to leave the conference.

However, there's a huge difference: Houston is going to be paid 5 to 10 times as much to play in the Big 12 as UConn is being paid to play in the Big East, so Houston can EASILY afford to pay $2 to $5 million more to leave the conference than UConn did.

Moreover, UConn was under financial strain due to the losses their football program incurred and will continue to incur as a football independent.


It wouldn't be befitting of such schools - or of the Big 12 conference which they're joining - to try to weasel out of what they agreed to pay the conference when they agreed to the terms of exit fees and early exit penalties.



.

They should sell cars like this... "We're going to charge you more because 'You can afford to pay more.'"

I still expect this to come to some amicable agreement.

Fact is we need to prove ourselves in the Big12 in a hurry:
- Big 12 contact with Sugar Bowl is only through 2025.
- Big 12 TV deal is only through 2025.
- Texas and OU seem to be willing to play UCF, Houston, and Cincy in 2023 and 2024. We need those games to build the new Big 12 brand as soon as possible.

A lame duck season in the AAC doesn't help the new Big 12 brand. The extra season of data will aid those future negotiations with bowls and tv partners.

This game of chicken is eventually going to end. Aresco's $45M number ($10M contract exit + $35M early exit) is way too high but $10M number is way too low.

Just agree to a number because we still have the Big 12 mess to deal with.

(05-18-2022 08:25 AM)ultraviolet Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 05:09 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-12-2022 11:05 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-04-2022 06:37 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

“Aren’t close” would seem to suggest these negotiations won’t end this week. This will continue to drag out.

Ive said from the start I thought the number would be 10 million for the base exit fee plus another 5 to leave a year early---for a total exit fee of 15 million each. Thats more than UConn paid per year when they left TWO years early (UConn paid an additional early exit penalty of 3.5 million per year when they left 2 years prior to fulfilling the 27 month waiting period).

Of course, Houston fans hope to avoid paying a penny more than UConn paid to leave the conference.

However, there's a huge difference: Houston is going to be paid 5 to 10 times as much to play in the Big 12 as UConn is being paid to play in the Big East, so Houston can EASILY afford to pay $2 to $5 million more to leave the conference than UConn did.

Moreover, UConn was under financial strain due to the losses their football program incurred and will continue to incur as a football independent.


It wouldn't be befitting of such schools - or of the Big 12 conference which they're joining - to try to weasel out of what they agreed to pay the conference when they agreed to the terms of exit fees and early exit penalties.



.

The loss of Houston, UCF, and Cinci is much more damaging to the conference either individually or collectively than the loss of UCONN. Different ball park, IMO.

How do, hasn’t Aresco already declared the conference media deal will not be affected by the exodus of these three?

(05-18-2022 05:09 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-12-2022 11:05 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-04-2022 06:37 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

“Aren’t close” would seem to suggest these negotiations won’t end this week. This will continue to drag out.

Ive said from the start I thought the number would be 10 million for the base exit fee plus another 5 to leave a year early---for a total exit fee of 15 million each. Thats more than UConn paid per year when they left TWO years early (UConn paid an additional early exit penalty of 3.5 million per year when they left 2 years prior to fulfilling the 27 month waiting period).

Of course, Houston fans hope to avoid paying a penny more than UConn paid to leave the conference.

However, there's a huge difference: Houston is going to be paid 5 to 10 times as much to play in the Big 12 as UConn is being paid to play in the Big East, so Houston can EASILY afford to pay $2 to $5 million more to leave the conference than UConn did.

Moreover, UConn was under financial strain due to the losses their football program incurred and will continue to incur as a football independent.


It wouldn't be befitting of such schools - or of the Big 12 conference which they're joining - to try to weasel out of what they agreed to pay the conference when they agreed to the terms of exit fees and early exit penalties.



.

Literally none of that matters. Where we are going or how much we stand to make in the future has nothing to do with breaking the current contract.

What does is damages. Which Aresco will have a hard time proving after he has already announced that the remaining 8 will not see a drop in revenue. So what exactly are the damages of us leaving one football season earlier?

(05-18-2022 09:46 AM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 05:09 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-12-2022 11:05 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-04-2022 06:37 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

“Aren’t close” would seem to suggest these negotiations won’t end this week. This will continue to drag out.

Ive said from the start I thought the number would be 10 million for the base exit fee plus another 5 to leave a year early---for a total exit fee of 15 million each. Thats more than UConn paid per year when they left TWO years early (UConn paid an additional early exit penalty of 3.5 million per year when they left 2 years prior to fulfilling the 27 month waiting period).

Of course, Houston fans hope to avoid paying a penny more than UConn paid to leave the conference.

However, there's a huge difference: Houston is going to be paid 5 to 10 times as much to play in the Big 12 as UConn is being paid to play in the Big East, so Houston can EASILY afford to pay $2 to $5 million more to leave the conference than UConn did.

Moreover, UConn was under financial strain due to the losses their football program incurred and will continue to incur as a football independent.


It wouldn't be befitting of such schools - or of the Big 12 conference which they're joining - to try to weasel out of what they agreed to pay the conference when they agreed to the terms of exit fees and early exit penalties.



.

Literally none of that matters. Where we are going or how much we stand to make in the future has nothing to do with breaking the current contract.

What does is damages. Which Aresco will have a hard time proving after he has already announced that the remaining 8 will not see a drop in revenue. So what exactly are the damages of us leaving one football season earlier?

Hmm that’s easy to quantify at least one component.
G5 (yes, this P6 is also still a G5) CFP revenue includes payout for NY6 appearances (oh look most of our NY6 regulars are departing) and for overall average conference ranking (based on all members). You can crunch the numbers and see how much less $$$ the AAC would have received from CFP in each of the past 6-8 years under the new alignment.

NCAA is another area where revenue may decline as the credits age out. But less drastically, because the old credits stay behind.

The TV is just one part of conference-distributed revenue. Impressive that it will be remaining stable.

(05-19-2022 10:31 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 09:46 AM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 05:09 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-12-2022 11:05 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-04-2022 06:37 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

“Aren’t close” would seem to suggest these negotiations won’t end this week. This will continue to drag out.

Ive said from the start I thought the number would be 10 million for the base exit fee plus another 5 to leave a year early---for a total exit fee of 15 million each. Thats more than UConn paid per year when they left TWO years early (UConn paid an additional early exit penalty of 3.5 million per year when they left 2 years prior to fulfilling the 27 month waiting period).

Of course, Houston fans hope to avoid paying a penny more than UConn paid to leave the conference.

However, there's a huge difference: Houston is going to be paid 5 to 10 times as much to play in the Big 12 as UConn is being paid to play in the Big East, so Houston can EASILY afford to pay $2 to $5 million more to leave the conference than UConn did.

Moreover, UConn was under financial strain due to the losses their football program incurred and will continue to incur as a football independent.


It wouldn't be befitting of such schools - or of the Big 12 conference which they're joining - to try to weasel out of what they agreed to pay the conference when they agreed to the terms of exit fees and early exit penalties.



.

Literally none of that matters. Where we are going or how much we stand to make in the future has nothing to do with breaking the current contract.

What does is damages. Which Aresco will have a hard time proving after he has already announced that the remaining 8 will not see a drop in revenue. So what exactly are the damages of us leaving one football season earlier?

Hmm that’s easy to quantify at least one component.
G5 (yes, this P6 is also still a G5) CFP revenue includes payout for NY6 appearances (oh look most of our NY6 regulars are departing) and for overall average conference ranking (based on all members). You can crunch the numbers and see how much less $$$ the AAC would have received from CFP in each of the past 6-8 years under the new alignment.

NCAA is another area where revenue may decline as the credits age out. But less drastically, because the old credits stay behind.

The TV is just one part of conference-distributed revenue. Impressive that it will be remaining stable.

They are just robbing Peter to pay Paul.

The new teams get a smaller revenue bump from their old conference, and the old AAC keeps their share of TV revenue keeping the payout the same.

(05-19-2022 10:31 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 09:46 AM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 05:09 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-12-2022 11:05 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-04-2022 06:37 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

“Aren’t close” would seem to suggest these negotiations won’t end this week. This will continue to drag out.

Ive said from the start I thought the number would be 10 million for the base exit fee plus another 5 to leave a year early---for a total exit fee of 15 million each. Thats more than UConn paid per year when they left TWO years early (UConn paid an additional early exit penalty of 3.5 million per year when they left 2 years prior to fulfilling the 27 month waiting period).

Of course, Houston fans hope to avoid paying a penny more than UConn paid to leave the conference.

However, there's a huge difference: Houston is going to be paid 5 to 10 times as much to play in the Big 12 as UConn is being paid to play in the Big East, so Houston can EASILY afford to pay $2 to $5 million more to leave the conference than UConn did.

Moreover, UConn was under financial strain due to the losses their football program incurred and will continue to incur as a football independent.


It wouldn't be befitting of such schools - or of the Big 12 conference which they're joining - to try to weasel out of what they agreed to pay the conference when they agreed to the terms of exit fees and early exit penalties.



.

Literally none of that matters. Where we are going or how much we stand to make in the future has nothing to do with breaking the current contract.

What does is damages. Which Aresco will have a hard time proving after he has already announced that the remaining 8 will not see a drop in revenue. So what exactly are the damages of us leaving one football season earlier?

Hmm that’s easy to quantify at least one component.
G5 (yes, this P6 is also still a G5) CFP revenue includes payout for NY6 appearances (oh look most of our NY6 regulars are departing) and for overall average conference ranking (based on all members). You can crunch the numbers and see how much less $$$ the AAC would have received from CFP in each of the past 6-8 years under the new alignment.

NCAA is another area where revenue may decline as the credits age out. But less drastically, because the old credits stay behind.

The TV is just one part of conference-distributed revenue. Impressive that it will be remaining stable.

Again, that has nothing to do with this. Future contract revenues are irrelevant. That is covered after 27 months and the $10 million. We are arguing what above and beyond that $10 million covers "damages" by leaving in 22 months instead of 27. And the AAC would have a very had time making that case in court.

(05-20-2022 10:03 AM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(05-19-2022 10:31 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 09:46 AM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 05:09 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  

(05-12-2022 11:05 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Ive said from the start I thought the number would be 10 million for the base exit fee plus another 5 to leave a year early---for a total exit fee of 15 million each. Thats more than UConn paid per year when they left TWO years early (UConn paid an additional early exit penalty of 3.5 million per year when they left 2 years prior to fulfilling the 27 month waiting period).

Of course, Houston fans hope to avoid paying a penny more than UConn paid to leave the conference.

However, there's a huge difference: Houston is going to be paid 5 to 10 times as much to play in the Big 12 as UConn is being paid to play in the Big East, so Houston can EASILY afford to pay $2 to $5 million more to leave the conference than UConn did.

Moreover, UConn was under financial strain due to the losses their football program incurred and will continue to incur as a football independent.


It wouldn't be befitting of such schools - or of the Big 12 conference which they're joining - to try to weasel out of what they agreed to pay the conference when they agreed to the terms of exit fees and early exit penalties.



.

Literally none of that matters. Where we are going or how much we stand to make in the future has nothing to do with breaking the current contract.

What does is damages. Which Aresco will have a hard time proving after he has already announced that the remaining 8 will not see a drop in revenue. So what exactly are the damages of us leaving one football season earlier?

Hmm that’s easy to quantify at least one component.
G5 (yes, this P6 is also still a G5) CFP revenue includes payout for NY6 appearances (oh look most of our NY6 regulars are departing) and for overall average conference ranking (based on all members). You can crunch the numbers and see how much less $$$ the AAC would have received from CFP in each of the past 6-8 years under the new alignment.

NCAA is another area where revenue may decline as the credits age out. But less drastically, because the old credits stay behind.

The TV is just one part of conference-distributed revenue. Impressive that it will be remaining stable.

Again, that has nothing to do with this. Future contract revenues are irrelevant. That is covered after 27 months and the $10 million. We are arguing what above and beyond that $10 million covers "damages" by leaving in 22 months instead of 27. And the AAC would have a very had time making that case in court.

A full season early.

Sounds a lot different than the "5 months" spin, doesn't it?

(05-20-2022 03:04 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(05-20-2022 10:03 AM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(05-19-2022 10:31 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 09:46 AM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 05:09 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  Of course, Houston fans hope to avoid paying a penny more than UConn paid to leave the conference.

However, there's a huge difference: Houston is going to be paid 5 to 10 times as much to play in the Big 12 as UConn is being paid to play in the Big East, so Houston can EASILY afford to pay $2 to $5 million more to leave the conference than UConn did.

Moreover, UConn was under financial strain due to the losses their football program incurred and will continue to incur as a football independent.


It wouldn't be befitting of such schools - or of the Big 12 conference which they're joining - to try to weasel out of what they agreed to pay the conference when they agreed to the terms of exit fees and early exit penalties.



.

Literally none of that matters. Where we are going or how much we stand to make in the future has nothing to do with breaking the current contract.

What does is damages. Which Aresco will have a hard time proving after he has already announced that the remaining 8 will not see a drop in revenue. So what exactly are the damages of us leaving one football season earlier?

Hmm that’s easy to quantify at least one component.
G5 (yes, this P6 is also still a G5) CFP revenue includes payout for NY6 appearances (oh look most of our NY6 regulars are departing) and for overall average conference ranking (based on all members). You can crunch the numbers and see how much less $$$ the AAC would have received from CFP in each of the past 6-8 years under the new alignment.

NCAA is another area where revenue may decline as the credits age out. But less drastically, because the old credits stay behind.

The TV is just one part of conference-distributed revenue. Impressive that it will be remaining stable.

Again, that has nothing to do with this. Future contract revenues are irrelevant. That is covered after 27 months and the $10 million. We are arguing what above and beyond that $10 million covers "damages" by leaving in 22 months instead of 27. And the AAC would have a very had time making that case in court.

A full season early.

Sounds a lot different than the "5 months" spin, doesn't it?

Yeah, but UCONN left 2 seasons early and it cost them an extra 7 mil. I for one am not worried, it will get worked out. and the leftover 8 will be getting 30 mil +? to split between them. I still expect 7 to 10 to be where it lands per school.

Drop $20 mill apiece on the floor and back away slowly.

(05-20-2022 03:04 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(05-20-2022 10:03 AM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(05-19-2022 10:31 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 09:46 AM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 05:09 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  Of course, Houston fans hope to avoid paying a penny more than UConn paid to leave the conference.

However, there's a huge difference: Houston is going to be paid 5 to 10 times as much to play in the Big 12 as UConn is being paid to play in the Big East, so Houston can EASILY afford to pay $2 to $5 million more to leave the conference than UConn did.

Moreover, UConn was under financial strain due to the losses their football program incurred and will continue to incur as a football independent.


It wouldn't be befitting of such schools - or of the Big 12 conference which they're joining - to try to weasel out of what they agreed to pay the conference when they agreed to the terms of exit fees and early exit penalties.



.

Literally none of that matters. Where we are going or how much we stand to make in the future has nothing to do with breaking the current contract.

What does is damages. Which Aresco will have a hard time proving after he has already announced that the remaining 8 will not see a drop in revenue. So what exactly are the damages of us leaving one football season earlier?

Hmm that’s easy to quantify at least one component.
G5 (yes, this P6 is also still a G5) CFP revenue includes payout for NY6 appearances (oh look most of our NY6 regulars are departing) and for overall average conference ranking (based on all members). You can crunch the numbers and see how much less $$$ the AAC would have received from CFP in each of the past 6-8 years under the new alignment.

NCAA is another area where revenue may decline as the credits age out. But less drastically, because the old credits stay behind.

The TV is just one part of conference-distributed revenue. Impressive that it will be remaining stable.

Again, that has nothing to do with this. Future contract revenues are irrelevant. That is covered after 27 months and the $10 million. We are arguing what above and beyond that $10 million covers "damages" by leaving in 22 months instead of 27. And the AAC would have a very had time making that case in court.

A full season early.

Sounds a lot different than the "5 months" spin, doesn't it?

But actually they aren't. The 3 teams are only obligated for the 5 months. They could honor the contract and literally quit the conference in the middle of a season. That would screw everything up but that would be honoring the contract. The AAC is not entitled to keep the teams in the conference past those 5 months.

(05-20-2022 03:04 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(05-20-2022 10:03 AM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(05-19-2022 10:31 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 09:46 AM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 05:09 AM)Milwaukee Wrote:  Of course, Houston fans hope to avoid paying a penny more than UConn paid to leave the conference.

However, there's a huge difference: Houston is going to be paid 5 to 10 times as much to play in the Big 12 as UConn is being paid to play in the Big East, so Houston can EASILY afford to pay $2 to $5 million more to leave the conference than UConn did.

Moreover, UConn was under financial strain due to the losses their football program incurred and will continue to incur as a football independent.


It wouldn't be befitting of such schools - or of the Big 12 conference which they're joining - to try to weasel out of what they agreed to pay the conference when they agreed to the terms of exit fees and early exit penalties.



.

Literally none of that matters. Where we are going or how much we stand to make in the future has nothing to do with breaking the current contract.

What does is damages. Which Aresco will have a hard time proving after he has already announced that the remaining 8 will not see a drop in revenue. So what exactly are the damages of us leaving one football season earlier?

Hmm that’s easy to quantify at least one component.
G5 (yes, this P6 is also still a G5) CFP revenue includes payout for NY6 appearances (oh look most of our NY6 regulars are departing) and for overall average conference ranking (based on all members). You can crunch the numbers and see how much less $$$ the AAC would have received from CFP in each of the past 6-8 years under the new alignment.

NCAA is another area where revenue may decline as the credits age out. But less drastically, because the old credits stay behind.

The TV is just one part of conference-distributed revenue. Impressive that it will be remaining stable.

Again, that has nothing to do with this. Future contract revenues are irrelevant. That is covered after 27 months and the $10 million. We are arguing what above and beyond that $10 million covers "damages" by leaving in 22 months instead of 27. And the AAC would have a very had time making that case in court.

A full season early.

Sounds a lot different than the "5 months" spin, doesn't it?

I mean its a full football season, not a full athletic season. And the point remains. The AAC has already publicly come out and said the leftover 8 will not receive a cut in income through that time. So what "damage" are we causing by not playing the 2023 season?

(05-20-2022 09:45 PM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(05-20-2022 03:04 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(05-20-2022 10:03 AM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(05-19-2022 10:31 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(05-18-2022 09:46 AM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  Literally none of that matters. Where we are going or how much we stand to make in the future has nothing to do with breaking the current contract.

What does is damages. Which Aresco will have a hard time proving after he has already announced that the remaining 8 will not see a drop in revenue. So what exactly are the damages of us leaving one football season earlier?

Hmm that’s easy to quantify at least one component.
G5 (yes, this P6 is also still a G5) CFP revenue includes payout for NY6 appearances (oh look most of our NY6 regulars are departing) and for overall average conference ranking (based on all members). You can crunch the numbers and see how much less $$$ the AAC would have received from CFP in each of the past 6-8 years under the new alignment.

NCAA is another area where revenue may decline as the credits age out. But less drastically, because the old credits stay behind.

The TV is just one part of conference-distributed revenue. Impressive that it will be remaining stable.

Again, that has nothing to do with this. Future contract revenues are irrelevant. That is covered after 27 months and the $10 million. We are arguing what above and beyond that $10 million covers "damages" by leaving in 22 months instead of 27. And the AAC would have a very had time making that case in court.

A full season early.

Sounds a lot different than the "5 months" spin, doesn't it?

I mean its a full football season, not a full athletic season. And the point remains. The AAC has already publicly come out and said the leftover 8 will not receive a cut in income through that time. So what "damage" are we causing by not playing the 2023 season?

IMO, the AAC should let the departing three leave at no cost, no exit fees at all. To me, they are conceptually unjustified, even though yes, we are entitled to something by the contractual terms.

I just don't see any basis for charging any of these schools, to me, as long as a school gives about nine months notice, time enough for a conference to adjust its upcoming athletic schedules (which they already have done) they should be free to go at no cost, save that the AAC should retain any future earnings that belong to the conference, like NCAA tournament credits earned while they were here.

To me, the slate between UCF/UH/Cincy and the AAC is already clean - the AAC provided them a platform to get better, and these schools helped the AAC by excelling and drawing TV ratings and making the NY6, bringing in more money to the conference. If anything, they contributed more to the AAC than they AAC did for them.

The only thing the AAC contributed to the 3 leaving were providing a media contract that had contracted national TV airings of games. Many in the rest of the conference did a piss poor job building their programs and investing in their programs. Minus USF for 1 or 2 years, Memphis as of late, and 1 or 2 years max for Navy and Temple........all those other teams as well as above team mentions during the other 7 or 8 years of the decade were a detriment to the leaving teams. They would massively drop the SOS.

One of the biggest hits on UCF during their undefeated runs were that their conference SOS was piss poor.

As other people mentioned, futures earning have ZERO to do with it in these negotiations. Those are covered in the 27 month $10 fee with is baked in the contract already. So stop talking about how leaving that one season early affects income for years down the road. The schools already are guaranteed to maintain their media income for the duration of the contract.........unless that is a total lie by Aresco. So really, it's about a loss of extra tangential earnings during that one single year that should be being debated. And lastly, each school is independent. Nowhere in the contract does it say that the number of schools departing at one time can affect the damages.

(05-21-2022 06:58 AM)otown Wrote:  The only thing the AAC contributed to the 3 leaving were providing a media contract that had contracted national TV airings of games. Many in the rest of the conference did a piss poor job building their programs and investing in their programs. Minus USF for 1 or 2 years, Memphis as of late, and 1 or 2 years max for Navy and Temple........all those other teams as well as above team mentions during the other 7 or 8 years of the decade were a detriment to the leaving teams. They would massively drop the SOS.

One of the biggest hits on UCF during their undefeated runs were that their conference SOS was piss poor.

As other people mentioned, futures earning have ZERO to do with it in these negotiations. Those are covered in the 27 month $10 fee with is baked in the contract already. So stop talking about how leaving that one season early affects income for years down the road. The schools already are guaranteed to maintain their media income for the duration of the contract.........unless that is a total lie by Aresco. So really, it's about a loss of extra tangential earnings during that one single year that should be being debated. And lastly, each school is independent. Nowhere in the contract does it say that the number of schools departing at one time can affect the damages.

Just about the bolded, because much of what else you say about the exit fee situation I agree with:

1) A soft conference SOS is a two-edge sword. Yes, it hurts your SOS, which hurts your ranking. But on the other hand, playing a soft schedule makes it easy to win games. Play a tough schedule and those teams likely lose games and don't go unbeaten. In the end, better for a G5 to be 12-0 vs a soft schedule than 10-2 vs a tougher one.

2) UCF's OOC schedule didn't do them any favors either. In 2017, the lineup before cancellations was FIU, Maryland, Maine and Georgia Tech. Those teams all ranged from bad to worse. In 2018, the lineup was SC State, FAU, Pitt and North Carolina. Carolina canceled but they were 2-9 that year so that actually helped UCF. The others were all bad teams.

So UCF's schedule was just lousy both years all around, both the teams they controlled playing and those they didn't.

I said this somewhere else...

The final deal will be somewhere between an aggregate $13 Million and $18 Million, per school. $10 Million is the "Exit Fee" and is, I think, unnegotiable (no matter how stupid I think that amount is). $8 Million would be the equivalent of a whole year's media contract; if you're going to argue "damages" then that's got to be the ceiling.

The schools are asking to break the contract "early." There will be some compensation rendered for that fact. But it's unreasonable to expect that to be more than a whole year's worth of the media deal. So anything below "a few Million" or above $8 Million is unreasonable and vindictive.

Again, I am trusting that Aresco and the Conference offices are more calm and reasonable than many on this forum. It really is in everyone's interests to find a quick solution to this and move on.

The exit fee pays the price of “stability”. If no one ever leaves, the conference has great stability, which is a selling point to both TV and schools.

If folks only ever leave with 27 months notice, that is still a very stable conference.

One of the costs to schools leaving “early” is lower stability.

UConn (one school that had not recently been strong in football) leaving two seasons early was an impact on stability.

Three top football and basketball schools leaving one season “early” is a greater impact on stability.

You might well argue that one team (let’s say, just UCF) leaving one season early would be more comparable to the UConn situation.

It’s an impact to conference stability, and overall conference “power” rating in the short term.

The conference will be fine, and the exit fees will help bridge the transition gap as the new schools ramp up to the AAC standards

(05-21-2022 05:46 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-20-2022 09:45 PM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(05-20-2022 03:04 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(05-20-2022 10:03 AM)MagicKnightmare Wrote:  

(05-19-2022 10:31 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  Hmm that’s easy to quantify at least one component.
G5 (yes, this P6 is also still a G5) CFP revenue includes payout for NY6 appearances (oh look most of our NY6 regulars are departing) and for overall average conference ranking (based on all members). You can crunch the numbers and see how much less $$$ the AAC would have received from CFP in each of the past 6-8 years under the new alignment.

NCAA is another area where revenue may decline as the credits age out. But less drastically, because the old credits stay behind.

The TV is just one part of conference-distributed revenue. Impressive that it will be remaining stable.

Again, that has nothing to do with this. Future contract revenues are irrelevant. That is covered after 27 months and the $10 million. We are arguing what above and beyond that $10 million covers "damages" by leaving in 22 months instead of 27. And the AAC would have a very had time making that case in court.

A full season early.

Sounds a lot different than the "5 months" spin, doesn't it?

I mean its a full football season, not a full athletic season. And the point remains. The AAC has already publicly come out and said the leftover 8 will not receive a cut in income through that time. So what "damage" are we causing by not playing the 2023 season?

IMO, the AAC should let the departing three leave at no cost, no exit fees at all. To me, they are conceptually unjustified, even though yes, we are entitled to something by the contractual terms.

I just don't see any basis for charging any of these schools, to me, as long as a school gives about nine months notice, time enough for a conference to adjust its upcoming athletic schedules (which they already have done) they should be free to go at no cost, save that the AAC should retain any future earnings that belong to the conference, like NCAA tournament credits earned while they were here.

To me, the slate between UCF/UH/Cincy and the AAC is already clean - the AAC provided them a platform to get better, and these schools helped the AAC by excelling and drawing TV ratings and making the NY6, bringing in more money to the conference. If anything, they contributed more to the AAC than they AAC did for them.

I don't think UCF, UH, and UC should leave for free. Maybe there's an argument that the exit fees should be lower. However, the American, in my opinion, deserves to get something back because they're taking a loss financially, at least in the short term. The three departing schools are going to see huge jumps in their revenue by going to a "Power 5" (I hate that label, by the way) conference. I'm a UCF fan, but . . . we need to pay the American a fair price for leaving ("fair" meaning whatever amount of money that all sides involved in the deal decide is the right amount).