Went to Home Depot for sheets of 1/2" BCX plywood for a project around the house. Last time I bought this exact sheathing was early 2020 and at this same store it was $18 per 4x8 sheet. It's $57 a sheet today.

How in the hell is anyone in their right mind building homes right now?

I must be getting old.

(05-03-2022 08:29 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Went to Home Depot for sheets of 1/2" BCX plywood for a project around the house. Last time I bought this exact sheathing was early 2020 and at this same store it was $18 per 4x8 sheet. It's $57 a sheet today.

How in the hell is anyone in their right mind building homes right now?

I must be getting old.

I am actually about to begin building a house. Completely sucks.

Funny thing is, last time I built a house (the one I am living in now and just signed a contract to sell), I priced all the material and applied for a loan. Before the check cleared we invaded Iraq. Plywood jumped from 8.99 a sheet to 32.99 a sheet.

Here it is happening again.

They’re gonna get burned, as will the banks (again) and eventually all of us.

Home prices through the roof, housing “shortage”, interest rates once at 2.25% now more than double that and gonna keep climbing.

People buying into these $600,000 houses @5.75% when they’re really worth about $325,000 are gonna get stuck yet again. Same as we saw in around 1987?, 2008 and soon to be again.
15 months. Gee, what changed?





Y’all starting to figure this out yet?







Suckers

People could end up upside down in new homes PDQ if the market corrects. And it will. That's never been the case...the costs are just nuts.

Called a builder I know who is completing an originally slated $1.1 million dollar lake house and he's going to be $560k over target budget due to lumber costs. That's on the homeowner and they are going to flip...hope the balloon loan covers it.

(05-03-2022 08:29 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Went to Home Depot for sheets of 1/2" BCX plywood for a project around the house. Last time I bought this exact sheathing was early 2020 and at this same store it was $18 per 4x8 sheet. It's $57 a sheet today.

How in the hell is anyone in their right mind building homes right now?

I must be getting old.

We bought a house back in 2019 that needed significant repair. We've been gradually doing the work ourselves (and I've realized I've gotten too old to keep doing this, but that's another topic).

Believe me... I've been watching lumber prices rise over the past 2.5 years.

Our house has a pool. Last year I paid $89 for a 35 lb bucket of chlorine tabs. That was a slight increase from the year before. This year that same 35 lb bucket is $199.

From $89 to $199... that's 123.6% increase.

Given that a 40lb bag of pool salt is $8 it makes converting to a salt system very enticing. Of course, the Salt Chlorine Generator system we need for our pool is $1,300.

My neighbor sunk about $150K in upgrades in his house in 2020. He was smart as heck to get out in front of it.

this is the why in stink-speak…

when the USD carries differing weight based on geo and a mass exodus occurs fleeing the obese, the bloviated swoop upon their next prey…

cost avg. capitalism…

Im about to start building a house unfortunately. In the plus side my builder is a client of mine and he’s building it with not a lot of markup for himself.

I got the land for a steal (water front 15 mins from downtown Charlotte for $70k).

In all I’ll have $400,000ish in it, and it should appraise for $600k at current market conditions.

(05-03-2022 08:57 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(05-03-2022 08:29 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Went to Home Depot for sheets of 1/2" BCX plywood for a project around the house. Last time I bought this exact sheathing was early 2020 and at this same store it was $18 per 4x8 sheet. It's $57 a sheet today.

How in the hell is anyone in their right mind building homes right now?

I must be getting old.

We bought a house back in 2019 that needed significant repair. We've been gradually doing the work ourselves (and I've realized I've gotten too old to keep doing this, but that's another topic).

Believe me... I've been watching lumber prices rise over the past 2.5 years.

Our house has a pool. Last year I paid $89 for a 35 lb bucket of chlorine tabs. That was a slight increase from the year before. This year that same 35 lb bucket is $199.

From $89 to $199... that's 123.6% increase.

Given that a 40lb bag of pool salt is $8 it makes converting to a salt system very enticing. Of course, the Salt Chlorine Generator system we need for our pool is $1,300.

I love the saltwater. Converted right before the pandemic.

(05-03-2022 08:39 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  They’re gonna get burned, as will the banks (again) and eventually all of us.

Home prices through the roof, housing “shortage”, interest rates once at 2.25% now more than double that and gonna keep climbing.

People buying into these $600,000 houses @5.75% when they’re really worth about $325,000 are gonna get stuck yet again. Same as we saw in around 1987?, 2008 and soon to be again.
15 months. Gee, what changed?





Y’all starting to figure this out yet?







Suckers

Funny thing is vacant land itself is actually pretty cheap right now. If I didn't have 3 kids, I'd seriously consider buying land and living in a trailer until economic conditions allow for building.

(05-03-2022 08:39 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  They’re gonna get burned, as will the banks (again) and eventually all of us.

Home prices through the roof, housing “shortage”, interest rates once at 2.25% now more than double that and gonna keep climbing.

People buying into these $600,000 houses @5.75% when they’re really worth about $325,000 are gonna get stuck yet again. Same as we saw in around 1987?, 2008 and soon to be again.
15 months. Gee, what changed?





Y’all starting to figure this out yet?







Suckers

Yeah, I bought my house at the peak in 2007 and didn't get right side up until last year. Definitely learned from that mistake. Sitting this market out, especially given now most of my mortgage is principle.

I'd live in my garage before I bought or built right now. Just asking to take a 6 figure loss in 23' unless you ride it out for a decade plus.

I feel bad for folks under 40 or so who are still looking to get into housing or who are in the house upgrade stage with kids.

Building material prices will begin to decline this Summer. Mass builders production is beginning to decline since mortgage rates are at 5%. They will be at 5.5% by then.

We did a home renovation in 2021, and plywood costs went thru the roof back then. We had a carpeted room and a tiled kitchen that we wanted to make all into one floor style - and the original plan was to level it with a plywood in the formerly carpeted room. After we got the cost, I took the tile floor down to the sub-floor and eliminated the need for plywood completely. Saved $1500 to $2000 last year by doing that.

I'm sure plywood is worse than the highest cost in 2021. Insane!

(05-03-2022 09:25 AM)Niner National Wrote:  Im about to start building a house unfortunately. In the plus side my builder is a client of mine and he’s building it with not a lot of markup for himself.

I got the land for a steal (water front 15 mins from downtown Charlotte for $70k).

In all I’ll have $400,000ish in it, and it should appraise for $600k at current market conditions.

Can you not wait?

I closed in December right before rates shot back up. I got 3.125% and if was a week earlier would have been 2.85%. I was able to get my house for $7.5k under asking and what it was appraised at and couldn't be happier.

Just last week a house two doors down listed at $425k went for $508k within a day and rates are over 2% what they were when I financed. Spring and early Summer was hard last year too so I stopped seriously looking because it was so insane and this year seems to be even crazier in my area. Many people are willing to throw money down the drain it appears to me.

(05-03-2022 09:21 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  this is the why in stink-speak…

when the USD carries differing weight based on geo and a mass exodus occurs fleeing the obese, the bloviated swoop upon their next prey…

cost avg. capitalism…

Not sure if I’m extraordinarily proud, extremely worried, or plum crazy that I understood that perfectly…

May God have mercy on my soul.

(05-03-2022 09:30 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(05-03-2022 08:39 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  They’re gonna get burned, as will the banks (again) and eventually all of us.

Home prices through the roof, housing “shortage”, interest rates once at 2.25% now more than double that and gonna keep climbing.

People buying into these $600,000 houses @5.75% when they’re really worth about $325,000 are gonna get stuck yet again. Same as we saw in around 1987?, 2008 and soon to be again.
15 months. Gee, what changed?





Y’all starting to figure this out yet?







Suckers

Funny thing is vacant land itself is actually pretty cheap right now. If I didn't have 3 kids, I'd seriously consider buying land and living in a trailer until economic conditions allow for building.

Buy the land.
They’ll grow more trees at some point. Can’t really produce more land.

We seriously considered buying a canal front lot(s) in this weird, off the beaten path, never heard of wasteland with wild horses and not much else in a place called Corolla back in ‘92-3 or so.
Water access lots for 16,500-25,000 or so…

They’d go for 10x’s or more today.

Dum de Dum Dum

(05-03-2022 09:30 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(05-03-2022 08:39 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  They’re gonna get burned, as will the banks (again) and eventually all of us.

Home prices through the roof, housing “shortage”, interest rates once at 2.25% now more than double that and gonna keep climbing.

People buying into these $600,000 houses @5.75% when they’re really worth about $325,000 are gonna get stuck yet again. Same as we saw in around 1987?, 2008 and soon to be again.
15 months. Gee, what changed?





Y’all starting to figure this out yet?







Suckers

Funny thing is vacant land itself is actually pretty cheap right now. If I didn't have 3 kids, I'd seriously consider buying land and living in a trailer until economic conditions allow for building.

That is really what I am considering. I have already bought the land. Planning to build, but I have seriously considered a trailer or even building a quick/fast "cottage shed" and wait out the prices.

(05-03-2022 09:50 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Building material prices will begin to decline this Summer. Mass builders production is beginning to decline since mortgage rates are at 5%. They will be at 5.5% by then.

What leads you to believe this? I have seen nothing that leads me to believe any prices are going down until the economy goes into deep recession which I give it to the end of the year and the wheels will falloff due to the fact that folks will run out of money to continue purchasing. Until that happens its a runaway train on a crash and burn course.