(04-28-2022 02:30 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(04-28-2022 02:06 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(04-28-2022 12:56 PM)Mister Consistency Wrote:  Would Merrimack be on board with this? Possibly an easier path to the tournament as the AQ, but leaving Hockey East feels like a big ask.

They would not. Leaving a top conference like Hockey East - and the associations with BC, BU, etc. - for a start-up league is a non-starter. Hockey East is very visible in a region where hockey's very popular.

Merrimack's inclusion in Hockey East is akin to John Chaney's, err, "the powers that be's" addition of La Salle to the A-10.

A relatively harmless decision at the time, but one that seems more pointless with each passing year.

If Hockey People weren't Hockey People, the conference leadership would probably be helping Merrimack find another league by now.

This is just me sitting completely outside of that region with no context on how that decision went down, but it was always strange to me that Merrimack was in Hockey East while Holy Cross was in Atlantic Hockey as opposed to the other way around based on institutional profile.

(04-28-2022 02:45 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-28-2022 02:30 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(04-28-2022 02:06 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(04-28-2022 12:56 PM)Mister Consistency Wrote:  Would Merrimack be on board with this? Possibly an easier path to the tournament as the AQ, but leaving Hockey East feels like a big ask.

They would not. Leaving a top conference like Hockey East - and the associations with BC, BU, etc. - for a start-up league is a non-starter. Hockey East is very visible in a region where hockey's very popular.

Merrimack's inclusion in Hockey East is akin to John Chaney's, err, "the powers that be's" addition of La Salle to the A-10.

A relatively harmless decision at the time, but one that seems more pointless with each passing year.

If Hockey People weren't Hockey People, the conference leadership would probably be helping Merrimack find another league by now.

This is just me sitting completely outside of that region with no context on how that decision went down, but it was always strange to me that Merrimack was in Hockey East while Holy Cross was in Atlantic Hockey as opposed to the other way around based on institutional profile.

Holy Cross has a history of doing basically nothing in Hockey, whereas Merrimack was really good prior to going DI, and had even made the second round of the tournament right before getting the nod into Hockey East.

The Holy Cross Women's team is in Hockey East, interestingly enough.

(04-28-2022 02:40 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Any of our College Hockey experts here willing to make an educated guess, percentage-wise, on the following conference moves happening within the next 5 years?

1) Minnesota State to the NCHC

2) Arizona State to the NCHC

3) Illinois to the B1G

4) Navy to Atlantic Hockey

5a) Penn to the Ivy League

5b) An Ivy League and ECAC Hockey split

6) A heretofore non-existent DI hockey conference forming

7) Bonus question: The NCAA tournament expanding from to 16 to 24 teams

I'll play I guess. Pleading ignorance on internal NCHC politics for 1 and 2 but you have to imagine that both would accept if offered.

3. 5%? Define "Illinois to B1G." Like, they've played a game, or announced a program? Illinois hockey was tied to a new arena, which is included in a big multi-use downtown Champaign development with student housing, offices, etc. It's a massive project that has a ton of moving pieces.

4. 2.5%? You'd think if Navy wanted varsity hockey they would have done it already. Not sure what's changed (other than their football taking a step backwards). Maybe AHA having other options for team 12 (LIU, Stonehill, Utica...) means that they are told "now or never."

5a. 0%. No arena, never been even a rumble that they would bring hockey back.
5b. 0.1%. Not sure what would have changed in the last few years that leads the Ivies to want out.

6. Maybe 20%? Also, define conference. Like, some amalgamation of schools slaps a name on themselves and has a tournament? Or get an autobid?

7. 0%. The NCAA isn't going to let 40% of Division I teams into the NCAA tournament. Even to get down to 30%, a 24 team tournament would require 80 Division I teams. There's no way.

Playoff expansion in general would be a non-0% chance. Still fairly small, but non-0.

24 would be too large in 5 years. But potentially toward the end of it I could see an expansion to 20 teams (a play-in game in each region would be the easiest expansion).

(04-28-2022 02:40 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Any of our College Hockey experts here willing to make an educated guess, percentage-wise, on the following conference moves happening within the next 5 years?

1) Minnesota State to the NCHC

2) Arizona State to the NCHC

3) Illinois to the B1G

4) Navy to Atlantic Hockey

5a) Penn to the Ivy League

5b) An Ivy League and ECAC Hockey split

6) A heretofore non-existent DI hockey conference forming

7) Bonus question: The NCAA tournament expanding from to 16 to 24 teams

1) Not just no but NO!

2) I could see it with a quality expansion partner.

skip

7) Whenever the next tournament expansion is, it will be to 20.

(04-28-2022 02:45 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  This is just me sitting completely outside of that region with no context on how that decision went down, but it was always strange to me that Merrimack was in Hockey East while Holy Cross was in Atlantic Hockey as opposed to the other way around based on institutional profile.

Unfortunately for the Crusaders (surprised it hasn't been changed), institutional profile seems to be the best thing the men's hockey program has going for it.

Even in a lower-tier conference, HC has been mediocre to bad for a while.

(04-28-2022 03:49 PM)AZcats Wrote:  1) Not just no but NO!

What if Miami scales back and returns to the much cozier CCHA as some have predicted?

UM-Duluth
North Dakota
St. Cloud State
UN-Omaha
Denver
Colorado College
*Arizona State
*Minnesota State

Still might continue be the best conference in the country.

Also MSU-Mankato's home attendance was 4,400-plus in the 2019-20 season, good for 15th in the country.

(04-28-2022 01:40 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  So, assuming we’re going on geographic lines and AFA stays with Army:

A:
Bentley
Holy Cross
American International
Sacred Heart
Army
Air Force
LIU*
Stonehill*

B:
RIT
Niagara
Canisius
Mercyhurst
Robert Morris
Utica*

That leaves the B league a little thin unless they are going to go shopping for geographic outliers.

I'd go:

Alaska-Fairbanks
Alaska-Anchorage
Arizona State
AFA
Army
Alabama-Huntsville
Lindenwood
Augustana

That gets you the 8 schools that have to fly (except Army which stays with AFA). All are easy to fly to, proximity to airports.

Let AHA choose from (LIU, Robert Morris, Utica, Stonehill)

(04-28-2022 03:17 PM)ccd494 Wrote:  

(04-28-2022 02:40 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Any of our College Hockey experts here willing to make an educated guess, percentage-wise, on the following conference moves happening within the next 5 years?

1) Minnesota State to the NCHC

2) Arizona State to the NCHC

3) Illinois to the B1G

4) Navy to Atlantic Hockey

5a) Penn to the Ivy League

5b) An Ivy League and ECAC Hockey split

6) A heretofore non-existent DI hockey conference forming

7) Bonus question: The NCAA tournament expanding from to 16 to 24 teams

I'll play I guess. Pleading ignorance on internal NCHC politics for 1 and 2 but you have to imagine that both would accept if offered.

3. 5%? Define "Illinois to B1G." Like, they've played a game, or announced a program? Illinois hockey was tied to a new arena, which is included in a big multi-use downtown Champaign development with student housing, offices, etc. It's a massive project that has a ton of moving pieces.

4. 2.5%? You'd think if Navy wanted varsity hockey they would have done it already. Not sure what's changed (other than their football taking a step backwards). Maybe AHA having other options for team 12 (LIU, Stonehill, Utica...) means that they are told "now or never."

5a. 0%. No arena, never been even a rumble that they would bring hockey back.
5b. 0.1%. Not sure what would have changed in the last few years that leads the Ivies to want out.

6. Maybe 20%? Also, define conference. Like, some amalgamation of schools slaps a name on themselves and has a tournament? Or get an autobid?

7. 0%. The NCAA isn't going to let 40% of Division I teams into the NCAA tournament. Even to get down to 30%, a 24 team tournament would require 80 Division I teams. There's no way.

Thanks for the answers!

Really hopeful on Nos. 1 thru 4 — think each and all would be good for College Hockey.

As far as No. 7 and what "the NCAA" is or isn't going to do ...

The top down iron-fisted leadership from the NCAA is dead, kaput, finished.

If the coaches get together and go to their AD's with a plan ... and the AD's think they can make that plan work and they go to their presidents ... and if a few influential presidents buy what their AD's are selling ... then it'll happen.

NCAA as we know it is no longer in a position to stop anything consequential.

(04-28-2022 04:02 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(04-28-2022 03:49 PM)AZcats Wrote:  1) Not just no but NO!

What if Miami scales back and returns to the much cozier CCHA as some have predicted?

UM-Duluth
North Dakota
St. Cloud State
UN-Omaha
Denver
Colorado College
*Arizona State
*Minnesota State

Still might continue be the best conference in the country.

Also MSU-Mankato's home attendance was 4,400-plus in the 2019-20 season, good for 15th in the country.

If Miami does that, which I wouldn't want to see, just replace with Arizona State and stay at 8 including Western Michigan who you left off. No need for Mankato.

(04-28-2022 04:20 PM)AZcats Wrote:  If Miami does that, which I wouldn't want to see, just replace with Arizona State and stay at 8 including Western Michigan who you left off. No need for Mankato.

Ahhh, my blunder on WMU -- and the things I've read elsewhere on the internet indicate the Broncos aren't at all interested in leaving the NCHC regardless.

Minnesota State seems like a really good fit, but my sphere of knowledge on College Hockey (and many other things) admittedly is quite small.

It’s ironic that Miami was one of the biggest movers and shakers involved in the NCHC but it hasn’t been a good experience for them.

I think Ariz St and Minn St Mankato would be great adds.

(04-28-2022 05:18 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It’s ironic that Miami was one of the biggest movers and shakers involved in the NCHC but it hasn’t been a good experience for them.

I think Ariz St and Minn St Mankato would be great adds.

I think they would want Arizona State to prove themselves. They are going to have roughly zero local recruits.

While this may be true for DU and CC they have established recruiting pipelines over decades.

None of the other schools are going to care that Arizona State is P5. Phoenix is a big city, but what does it have compared to Grand Forks, Duluth, St. Cloud, Kalamazoo, Oxford, or even Omaha or Colorado Springs?

D-III Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts is going to resurrect men's hockey and add women's hockey: https://athletics.mcla.edu/general/2021-...0420kf05nk

If Miami leaves, Minnesota St comes in.

I can't see Arizona St coming in, they want to be w/ other Power 5's, they're independent till a West Coast conference gets started which will probably include another Power 5 or two. They seem content w/ being independent in the meantime.

(04-28-2022 05:18 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It’s ironic that Miami was one of the biggest movers and shakers involved in the NCHC but it hasn’t been a good experience for them.

I think Ariz St and Minn St Mankato would be great adds.

This seems to be a completely emotional fan-based on-the-ice observation as opposed to an objective business-oriented conference realignment observation, though.

It's sort of lower rent version of that thread suggesting that Missouri should leave the SEC and go back to the Big 12. Sure, Mizzou would probably be more competitive in the Big 12 compared to the SEC, but that's not what drives realignment decisions. In this environment where being in the best conference possibly means more than ever, absolutely no one is downgrading (and that includes even sport-specific leagues). Everyone knows that they're better off long-term sacrificing wins if they're in the best conference possible.

There are rumors Miami leadership doesn't like the NCHC. Appears to be more than just fans who are sick of being in the basement.

(04-28-2022 05:58 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(04-28-2022 05:18 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It’s ironic that Miami was one of the biggest movers and shakers involved in the NCHC but it hasn’t been a good experience for them.

I think Ariz St and Minn St Mankato would be great adds.

I think they would want Arizona State to prove themselves. They are going to have roughly zero local recruits.

While this may be true for DU and CC they have established recruiting pipelines over decades.

None of the other schools are going to care that Arizona State is P5. Phoenix is a big city, but what does it have compared to Grand Forks, Duluth, St. Cloud, Kalamazoo, Oxford, or even Omaha or Colorado Springs?

Have you been to Tempe during the hockey season specifically (October through March)? It's basically perfect weather that entire time. Southern California is a short drive away and they produce a fair amount of players simply due to the huge population size (even if it's nowhere near the per capita basis of the Upper Midwest). I wouldn't want to be a Midwest or even Rocky Mountain school competing for a top recruit after they made a campus visit to ASU in January.

I would disagree about the other schools not caring that ASU is P5. We're already in the midst of pretty significant structural changes in college sports and the common theme is that it's the P5 versus everyone else. It's in the interest of anyone that isn't in the P5 to have some P5 allies in the room, even if it's on a limited basis.

Let's put it this way - if DU and CC want to continue to play at the top level of college hockey going forward, it certainly doesn't help to have ASU be in the Big Ten as opposed to the NCHC. I know that college hockey is a bit insular and has some unique power dynamics that have allowed small schools to still compete with the Michigan/Notre Dame-level institutions, but they also shouldn't be naive to think they're some type of exception to the broader changes that are happening across all of college sports.

(04-28-2022 03:49 PM)AZcats Wrote:  

(04-28-2022 02:40 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  Any of our College Hockey experts here willing to make an educated guess, percentage-wise, on the following conference moves happening within the next 5 years?

1) Minnesota State to the NCHC

1) Not just no but NO!

Why?

(04-29-2022 08:53 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-28-2022 05:18 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It’s ironic that Miami was one of the biggest movers and shakers involved in the NCHC but it hasn’t been a good experience for them.

I think Ariz St and Minn St Mankato would be great adds.

This seems to be a completely emotional fan-based on-the-ice observation as opposed to an objective business-oriented conference realignment observation, though.

It's sort of lower rent version of that thread suggesting that Missouri should leave the SEC and go back to the Big 12. Sure, Mizzou would probably be more competitive in the Big 12 compared to the SEC, but that's not what drives realignment decisions. In this environment where being in the best conference possibly means more than ever, absolutely no one is downgrading (and that includes even sport-specific leagues). Everyone knows that they're better off long-term sacrificing wins if they're in the best conference possible.

I guess you have to weigh the cost of being a cellar dweller in a good league vs being a top 25% team in an ok league.

In my opinion, I think the NCHC was a bit too selective when they went with 8 teams. Sure they are strong programs, but 10 would help to more evenly distribute some of the losses.