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I got semi-official word this morning on Kent State's chances to make the tournament from Jay Fiorello, KSU's assistant athletic communications director for women's basketball. Here's what he says:

All three of these things must happen in the final regular-season games Saturday.

1. Kent State defeats Ohio.
2. Bowling Green defeats Buffalo.
3. Central Michigan defeats Northern Illinois and/or Toledo defeats Western Michigan.

All that would give Kent State the No. 8 seed, and Ohio would miss the tournament.

This is based on Jay's reading of the tiebreaker rules, and I trust him better than my midnight computations last night. Jay says the MAC office "claims it will provide something by end of the day."

How likely is Jay's scenario?

1. Ohio beat KSU 70-64 on Jan. 12. Kent was without starter Lindsey Thall, who was out with COVID. Kent State (currently 9-10 in the MAC) has lost four of its last five games, falling to Bowling Green (10-9) twice, second-place Buffalo (15-4) and third-place Akron (12-7). The Bobcats have gone 3-3 over their last six games, losing to first-place Toledo (18-1), Buffalo and Akron.

2. Buffalo (15-4) will be favored against Bowling Green (10-9). The Bulls have won five in a row and won at Bowling Green 82-66 on Jan. 5. Bowling Green has gone 3-3 over its last six games. The BG-Buffalo game is in Buffalo.

3. Northern Illinois (10-9) will be favored at home against Central Michigan. Last-place CMU is 2-17 and has lost 10 games in a row. But the Chippewas did beat NIU 72-68 at CMU on Jan. 1.

4. First-place Toledo (18-1) is favored to beat Western Michigan (10-9). The Rockets have won 10 games in a row and beat Western Michigan 76-67 at Western on Jan. 8. Saturday's game is at Toledo.

This is certainly complicated. It must be unprecedented that the MAC has six teams in a virtual tie for fourth through ninth place going into the last game of the season. The fact that all of the teams haven't played the same number of games because of COVID-19 confuses things even more.

We still don't know what scenario -- if any -- would get the Kent State women into the MAC Tournament next week.

Jay Fiorello, the assistant athletic communications director for women's basketball, sent me his interpretation this morning. (See previous post.)

Later in the day, he sent this:

"I was wrong about how ties with 3+ teams are settled, so disregard previous info. Spoke with Kyle Klein at the MAC, and they are still working through all of the scenarios.”

As I write this, there's still no word from the MAC.

I don’t blame Jay. He's always been very good to me. The situation is absurdly complicated. Even the people who created the rules can't figure it out.

The rules weren't meant to handle a six-way tie in a COVID year.

Sounds like they really complicated it so much they confused themselves. Why did they have to unnecessarily get too cute? They could simplify it by going off the winning percentage and then the usual tie-breakers starting with head-to-head etc…

This is a perfect example of Keep is Simple Stupid.

The tie breakers aren’t all that complicated. The problem is there are 6 very mediocre teams all around 10-9 or 9-10. It would be a mess with or without COVID. After Saturdays games everything will sort out. Because of the six teams at about 0.500 every game Saturday matters. That’s 64 different combinations. It’s tough to work through all those. Just assume Buffalo will beat BG (pretty certain) and Kent beats Ohio (if they don’t nothing else matters) and your down to 16 combos. A little easier for a human to concept.

(03-04-2022 09:02 AM)burden Wrote:  The tie breakers aren’t all that complicated. The problem is there are 6 very mediocre teams all around 10-9 or 9-10. It would be a mess with or without COVID. After Saturdays games everything will sort out. Because of the six teams at about 0.500 every game Saturday matters. That’s 64 different combinations. It’s tough to work through all those. Just assume Buffalo will beat BG (pretty certain) and Kent beats Ohio (if they don’t nothing else matters) and your down to 16 combos. A little easier for a human to concept.

For that matter if you assume a Toledo win theres only 8 combos.

(03-04-2022 08:39 AM)luckyflash Wrote:  This is a perfect example of Keep is Simple Stupid.

After being around it for a few decades now, I’ve arrived at one cold, hard fact:

If there’s a way to screw it up, the Mid-American Conference will find a way.

(03-04-2022 11:20 AM)JimJoyce Wrote:  

(03-04-2022 08:39 AM)luckyflash Wrote:  This is a perfect example of Keep is Simple Stupid.

After being around it for a few decades now, I’ve arrived at one cold, hard fact:

If there’s a way to screw it up, the Mid-American Conference will find a way.

The results from just 2 games could create a lot of uncertainty. Say Kent State beats Ohio and Eastern beats Ball State. Kent at 10-10 would be tied with both Ball State at 10-9 and Ohio at 9-10 by operation of the pandemic rule, because the Flashes are within a half-game of each of them. So is Ohio tied with Ball State, even though a full game separates them? If so, the records of all three teams against each other would be compared to decide the seedings. If not, what will the procedure be?

If those 3 teams are considered tied, what happens if NIU beats CMU? NIU would be 11-9, within a half-game of Ball State's 10-9 and therefore "tied" with the Cardinals. Since Kent State is "tied" with Ball State, are they also tied with NIU? Is Ohio then also tied with NIU, even though the Bobcats are 1 1/2 games behind them? Considering that Bowling Green and Western Michigan could also finish 11-9 and "tied" with Ball State, it would be nice to see the MAC publicly announce what the rules are before Saturday's games are played.

We won but it took Ohio shooting something like 25% and one of their players going 0-10 from the free throw line to do it. Four games still going on so about an hour to see if we are headed to Cleveland.

The score was 59-50. We also shot 25%. I’m surprised the rims are still there!! We shot well from the free throw line which is why we won. The Ohio player was actually 0 for 11.

If the MAC gets its act together, it will announce seedings for next week's league tournament later this afternoon.

I don't think it looks good for Kent State. Flashes are 10-10 and tied for the last spot in the tournament with Ohio, Bowling Green and Western Michigan. MAC rules say in multi-team ties, the tiebreakers go to the teams with the best record against all other teams in the tie. KSU has won only one game (Saturday's OU game) against the other three teams.

That's all unofficial. Tiebreaker rules are quite convoluted, and MAC never posted anything about possibilities after six teams were tied for five spots going into today.

Ohio finished 9-10 but is considered tied with Kent State because MAC decided early in the season that a team should not be penalized for having a game canceled because of COVID.

In Saturday's game, KSU shot 27.1% from the field and Ohio 26.9%. Flashes made 17-of-21 free throws, Ohio 7-of-18. Ohio's Cece Hooks, who has scored more points than any other player in MAC history, was 0-for-11 from the line. She scored only eight points and was 4-of-21 on field goals. She came into the game averaging 23 points a game. Over the season, she had averaged 60% on foul shots.

Lindsey Thall had three 3-point baskets to break Larissa Lurken's record for most 3-pointers in a career. Thall has 215.

OU is the eight and Kent’s season is done.

Starkey and Co. have been a definite improvement over the previous regime, but they have not done a good job taking the next step. In fact, this season was a huge step backward.

(03-05-2022 05:03 PM)JimJoyce Wrote:  OU is the eight and Kent’s season is done.

Starkey and Co. have been a definite improvement over the previous regime, but they have not done a good job taking the next step. In fact, this season was a huge step backward.

Actually I think this Conference season set women’s basketball back to the 1990s. I haven’t seen such bad shooting so consistently. If ESPN televised MAC women’s games they would have brought back cricket to get their ratings up. The ironic thing is this team brought back everybody from last year and not one player improved significantly. That worries me.

(03-05-2022 04:14 PM)cschierh Wrote:  If the MAC gets its act together, it will announce seedings for next week's league tournament later this afternoon.

I don't think it looks good for Kent State. Flashes are 10-10 and tied for the last spot in the tournament with Ohio, Bowling Green and Western Michigan. MAC rules say in multi-team ties, the tiebreakers go to the teams with the best record against all other teams in the tie. KSU has won only one game (Saturday's OU game) against the other three teams.

That's all unofficial. Tiebreaker rules are quite convoluted, and MAC never posted anything about possibilities after six teams were tied for five spots going into today.

Ohio finished 9-10 but is considered tied with Kent State because MAC decided early in the season that a team should not be penalized for having a game canceled because of COVID.

In Saturday's game, KSU shot 27.1% from the field and Ohio 26.9%. Flashes made 17-of-21 free throws, Ohio 7-of-18. Ohio's Cece Hooks, who has scored more points than any other player in MAC history, was 0-for-11 from the line. She scored only eight points and was 4-of-21 on field goals. She came into the game averaging 23 points a game. Over the season, she had averaged 60% on foul shots.

Lindsey Thall had three 3-point baskets to break Larissa Lurken's record for most 3-pointers in a career. Thall has 215.

I’m actually glad we didn’t get in as a 7 or 8 seed. It would have been ugly.

(03-04-2022 11:20 AM)JimJoyce Wrote:  

(03-04-2022 08:39 AM)luckyflash Wrote:  This is a perfect example of Keep is Simple Stupid.

After being around it for a few decades now, I’ve arrived at one cold, hard fact:

If there’s a way to screw it up, the Mid-American Conference will find a way.

Jim. Agree 110%. Except I would like to add “ if they can find a way to screw Kent they will”. Last two AD’s so weak and disrespected that lowly MAC knows they can walk all over us. Covid rule is ridiculous. 10-10 always a better record than 9-10 where I’m from ????

Kent State lost four of its last six games, all to teams above it in the standings.

Win one of those, and they're in the tournament.

Flashes were 6-0 against the bottom three teams in the league and 4-10 against everyone else. I don't think they were screwed.

--

In postgame press conference, Lindsey Thall said she planned to return for a fifth season, allowed under NCAA rules prompted by COVID last season.

(03-05-2022 10:37 PM)cschierh Wrote:  Kent State lost four of its last six games, all to teams above it in the standings.

Win one of those, and they're in the tournament.

Flashes were 6-0 against the bottom three teams in the league and 4-10 against everyone else. I don't think they were screwed.

--

In postgame press conference, Lindsey Thall said she planned to return for a fifth season, allowed under NCAA rules prompted by COVID last season.

Of course, when you're fighting for 8th place in a 12-team league, you didn't have a great season, especially when pre-season hopes were so high. Nonetheless, that doesn't change the fact that the MAC completely botched its tie-breaker system. If you think Kent doesn't deserve a spot based on losing four of its last six, keep in mind that Ohio went 4-8 in its last twelve games. It's just unfair to assume that Ohio would have beaten Ball State in the missed game an to give the Bobcats credit for doing so. And, If you have an hour or so on your hands, try to figure out, using the MAC's published tie-breaking rules, how Ohio got the 8th seed rather than the 7th. I bet you can't do it, and the MAC certainly won't explain it. No other league in the country used such a ridiculous method for breaking ties.

(03-06-2022 07:51 AM)Lester Wrote:  

(03-05-2022 10:37 PM)cschierh Wrote:  Kent State lost four of its last six games, all to teams above it in the standings.

Win one of those, and they're in the tournament.

Flashes were 6-0 against the bottom three teams in the league and 4-10 against everyone else. I don't think they were screwed.

--

In postgame press conference, Lindsey Thall said she planned to return for a fifth season, allowed under NCAA rules prompted by COVID last season.

Of course, when you're fighting for 8th place in a 12-team league, you didn't have a great season, especially when pre-season hopes were so high. Nonetheless, that doesn't change the fact that the MAC completely botched its tie-breaker system. If you think Kent doesn't deserve a spot based on losing four of its last six, keep in mind that Ohio went 4-8 in its last twelve games. It's just unfair to assume that Ohio would have beaten Ball State in the missed game an to give the Bobcats credit for doing so. And, If you have an hour or so on your hands, try to figure out, using the MAC's published tie-breaking rules, how Ohio got the 8th seed rather than the 7th. I bet you can't do it, and the MAC certainly won't explain it. No other league in the country used such a ridiculous method for breaking ties.

The tiebreaker is ridiculous, they explain how we don’t get the 6th seed but how we don’t get the 8th is dumb. Three 10-10 teams tied for 6th should have been 6-7-8, but Ohio at 9 takes our 8th seed despite splitting our season series. Ohio missed a game against 5th seed BallsTate, a team they lost to at home and one we beat twice. FWIW they actually do explain it on the conference website:

https://getsomemaction.com/news/2022/3/5...unced.aspx

My point is that Kent State lost 10 games to teams above it in the standings. They had plenty of chances to control their own fate.

My biggest gripe is that both Ball State and Ohio (and the rest of the league) had byes last Monday. They could have played.

Still weird that an 18-11 team isn't going to their own conference tourney that had wins over multiple P5 teams.