(02-14-2022 02:56 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  

(02-14-2022 02:46 PM)mrbig Wrote:  After the first UNT loss folks around here were ready to mount Pera's head on a spike. After the UAB win people around here were talking extension and upswing. Now y'all are ready to fire him again. Maybe just take a few deep breaths, remember that it is a long season, that UNT is a good team (not just by CUSA standards), and that Rice just lost one of its better players and is likely still adjusting to that loss.

I agree that Pera's teams have shown weaknesses since he arrived. But he's been a little better at holding onto his players the last few years. The lack of defense remains an issues and I completely agree that it JK/Pera need to address this.

But let's not go full "sky is falling" because of a single game.

Pomeroy for his 5 seasons:

2017-18 ---> 299
2018-19 ---> 248
2019-20 ---> 199
2020-21 ---> 188
2021-22 ---> 206

I do not believe that any negative assessment is based on one game. There's clear evidence that Pera, after improving things early in his tenure, has hit a plateau over the past 3 seasons. If remaining in a holding pattern in the bottom half of Division I is acceptable, then there is a much deeper issue with the Athletic Department.

You have been pretty consistent with your criticisms

A few weeks ago, it was looking like maybe mild improvement with Rice at least a little better than 188. Then Olivari gets injured, Rice loses a few, and now it looks like a plateau.

Like I said, I think there are some valid criticisms of Pera. But Rice basketball is currently more "mediocre" than terrible, so comparisons to Rice football are not really valid.

I feel pretty confident that Coach Bloomgren cannot get Rice into the top quartile of FBS teams. I'm not quite ready to say that about Coach Pera yet for basketball, though my hope is definitely dimming due to the continued defensive shortcomings. I think it is a valid argument that Pera has shown his limitations and Rice should try someone else. I think it is also a valid argument that Pera should be given a little more time to grow as a coach to see if he can learn and adapt.

Pera seems smart enough to realize his defenses have largely sucked ... is there anything public out there with him explaining either how he plans to improve the defense or why he thinks his approach will eventually start working? I don't know enough basketball or watch enough games to really know why Rice's defense is poor.

Is it more individual players not being taught the skills needed to succeed, but the team approach (X's and O's) is solid?
Or will the X's and O's never work, but the individual execution is fine?
Is it lack of experience in the system because there have been a number of transfers (in and out) and Pera has a system that requires a little more time in his system?
Are the players just not athletic enough, not tall enough, or do not have enough length?
Are the players just lazy on defense, meaning they don't have enough energy even if they have the athleticism, individual skills, and cohesiveness needed to succeed?
Is the defense poor because of a few weak links and Rice just doesn't have the depth, or is it across-the-board?

At this point, I am more optimistic about Pera than Bloomgren. Of the men's "big three," I am most optimistic about Cheito, and his team has yet to play a game. We will soon see whether that optimism is well founded.

(02-14-2022 03:33 PM)mrbig Wrote:  

(02-14-2022 02:56 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  

(02-14-2022 02:46 PM)mrbig Wrote:  After the first UNT loss folks around here were ready to mount Pera's head on a spike. After the UAB win people around here were talking extension and upswing. Now y'all are ready to fire him again. Maybe just take a few deep breaths, remember that it is a long season, that UNT is a good team (not just by CUSA standards), and that Rice just lost one of its better players and is likely still adjusting to that loss.

I agree that Pera's teams have shown weaknesses since he arrived. But he's been a little better at holding onto his players the last few years. The lack of defense remains an issues and I completely agree that it JK/Pera need to address this.

But let's not go full "sky is falling" because of a single game.

Pomeroy for his 5 seasons:

2017-18 ---> 299
2018-19 ---> 248
2019-20 ---> 199
2020-21 ---> 188
2021-22 ---> 206

I do not believe that any negative assessment is based on one game. There's clear evidence that Pera, after improving things early in his tenure, has hit a plateau over the past 3 seasons. If remaining in a holding pattern in the bottom half of Division I is acceptable, then there is a much deeper issue with the Athletic Department.

You have been pretty consistent with your criticisms

A few weeks ago, it was looking like maybe mild improvement with Rice at least a little better than 188. Then Olivari gets injured, Rice loses a few, and now it looks like a plateau.

Like I said, I think there are some valid criticisms of Pera. But Rice basketball is currently more "mediocre" than terrible, so comparisons to Rice football are not really valid.

I feel pretty confident that Coach Bloomgren cannot get Rice into the top quartile of FBS teams. I'm not quite ready to say that about Coach Pera yet for basketball, though my hope is definitely dimming due to the continued defensive shortcomings. I think it is a valid argument that Pera has shown his limitations and Rice should try someone else. I think it is also a valid argument that Pera should be given a little more time to grow as a coach to see if he can learn and adapt.

Pera seems smart enough to realize his defenses have largely sucked ... is there anything public out there with him explaining either how he plans to improve the defense or why he thinks his approach will eventually start working? I don't know enough basketball or watch enough games to really know why Rice's defense is poor.

Is it more individual players not being taught the skills needed to succeed, but the team approach (X's and O's) is solid?
Or will the X's and O's never work, but the individual execution is fine?
Is it lack of experience in the system because there have been a number of transfers (in and out) and Pera has a system that requires a little more time in his system?
Are the players just not athletic enough, not tall enough, or do not have enough length?
Are the players just lazy on defense, meaning they don't have enough energy even if they have the athleticism, individual skills, and cohesiveness needed to succeed?
Is the defense poor because of a few weak links and Rice just doesn't have the depth, or is it across-the-board?

One of the issues with Pera is that after the Pepperdine game (they've won 1 game in conference) he lauded the defensive effort and said something along the lines of it being expected now that the team was more experienced and there was more continuity. Obviously that game was an outlier, because we're back to being a bottom 25% defense. It's a serious issue if Pera made those comments after the Pepperdine game actually expecting it to be a sign of things to come, because it would demonstrate that he actually was happy with what he saw in practice and thought we had improved. The alternative is that he knew the defense still sucked, which could be good or bad: good because maybe it'll spur on a change in the offseason if he knows he can't improve our defensive woes, bad because, well, it means he can't coach defensive principles.

I never coached or played so I can't speak to the Xs and Os, but I've seen three consistent issues with Pera's defenses: (1) Perimeter discipline, (2) paint defense, (3) individual weaknesses. Way too many times we lose shooters on the perimeter, especially in the corners. That's obviously a symptom of bad individual defense and soft paint defense - you often lose guys on the perimeter when you're helping on a driver - but our struggles go beyond being overeager when helping. The paint defense issue is obvious. Pera did try to remedy that by recruiting Ondigo (unlucky), whose MO was blocking shots. And Akuchie, at least theoretically because his HS competition is pretty bad, is supposedly a good interior defender. But neither Poteat nor Fiedler is overly strong in that area, although Poteat has had some really good contests over the past few weeks and Fiedler is technically decent at that as well (he's just not that strong so guys get good looks against him). That's reflected in the fact that we're 328th in the country in rim defense. And then in addition to not being overly disciplined, Pera hasn't always looked towards defending when recruiting. Mullins is a good defender, and I actually think Evee has been decent when he concentrates, but none of Olivari, Pierre, Sheffield, or McBride had reputations as plus defenders or have shown marked improvement. McDowell (redshirting) and Mason (2022) both have reputations as good defenders, so maybe things can get better personnel wise. But McDowell clearly isn't ready, it's never a guarantee that HS skills transfer to college, and, even if we do get better in terms of individual defending, there are still the schematic and coaching problems.

When you add in the fact that we turn it over a bunch, leading to plenty of transition opportunities, and we don't defend overly well in transition, leading to plenty of transition baskets, you have all the ingredients for a defense that is stuck around 300th.

The injury to Q has thrown a wrench in the lineup to say the least. Right now there are 4 players on the shelf, Lieppert and Olivari, who are both out for the season, and Geron and Hutchins, (I don’t know the timetable for their return). Hutchins was earning more PT when he got hurt and Geron would have received some more developmental minutes with Q’s injury but his foot was in a brace at the UNT game Saturday. I don’t know many coaches that can lose 4 players like the Owls have and not struggle. Even UH has lost their last 2 games since they lost Sasser and a couple other players. I don’t blame Pera for the injuries. I think he is really working hard to find the right combination(s) to compete and finish the season positively.

All the observations about defense are valid that people on this board have discussed, but I have seen improvement on the defensive side of the ball overall, in particular with discipline this season. The Owls are rarely in foul trouble and with a few game exceptions have done much better blocking out and getting rebounds, helping eliminate the second shot. They still struggle defending the perimeter and some of the bigs have really hurt them down low, especially teams like UH and Louisiana Tech.

The comments about losing players to the transfer portal was true for the first 3 years of the program under Coach Pera but they kept the core group together last year and hopefully that will be the case again this season. Players transferring to Rice have improved as well under Coach Pera this year. Carl Pierre is the leader on the floor that the team needed and McBride has logged a couple of solid games lately after starting out slowly, in particular with his shooting. Take away his (horrible) 3 point shooting and he is shooting at a 57% clip inside the arc. So his mid-range jumper has gotten better, although he is not a perimeter shooter like Q, Pierre or Evee.

There are 6 games left in the regular season. I hope the team can regroup and at least split them, which would give them a regular season record of 17-13 and 9-9 in conference. This would show continued progress as a program, but the team will have to continue to improve dramatically in future years to make an impact in their new conference. That means recruiting has to keep improving and the team will have to develop a defensive intensity that has seldom ever been seen at Tudor/Autry.

(02-14-2022 05:20 PM)Kayjay Wrote:  The injury to Q has thrown a wrench in the lineup to say the least. Right now there are 4 players on the shelf, Lieppert and Olivari, who are both out for the season, and Geron and Hutchins, (I don’t know the timetable for their return). Hutchins was earning more PT when he got hurt and Geron would have received some more developmental minutes with Q’s injury but his foot was in a brace at the UNT game Saturday. I don’t know many coaches that can lose 4 players like the Owls have and not struggle. Even UH has lost their last 2 games since they lost Sasser and a couple other players. I don’t blame Pera for the injuries. I think he is really working hard to find the right combination(s) to compete and finish the season positively.

(1) Even with Olivari, Rice was not among the top 50% of Division I (according to Pomeroy);

(2) Every team has injuries - that's the reason why good recruiting is essential (and Pera has been well below average in recruiting and keeping quality players - their best player is a transfer good for just one season);

(3) Don't even compare Houston's losses to those by Rice. And though UH's players were WAY better than ours, they're still at #7 in Pomeroy.

If I had to rank the coaches of the big three men's sports, I would say right now:

1) Cheito
2) Pera
3) Bloomgren

Of course, Cheito is all on talk and reputation and nobody has thrown a pitch in anger yet. I might have a different idea after this weekend, but it would probably take more than that to change my mind.

As I’ve said before, if Peterson, Osborne and Milora-Brown didn’t transfer, that squad could win C-USA. I think this year everyone knew that certain returning starters would need to make that next step to have a chance to contend. Didn’t happen. Flashes of greatness here and there, but not consistent. Although I hoped for improvement, this is about what I expected record wise. Pera needs to hire defensive minded assistant(s), issues on defense have carried over from the Rhodes years. Not pinning it all on Pera. I’ve watched most of the games this year, oftentimes the defensive game plan was sound but some guys were just overmatched on defense, both on the perimeter and in the paint.

(02-14-2022 08:48 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  If I had to rank the coaches of the big three men's sports, I would say right now:

1) Cheito
2) Pera
3) Bloomgren

Of course, Cheito is all on talk and reputation and nobody has thrown a pitch in anger yet. I might have a different idea after this weekend, but it would probably take more than that to change my mind.

What a ludicrous statement. Anyone who even attempts to judge Cheito on his first weekend of games against the consensus #1 team in the country, on the road, is not someone to be taken seriously. Personally, I think we'll be competitive, but geez.

(02-14-2022 08:58 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(02-14-2022 08:48 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  If I had to rank the coaches of the big three men's sports, I would say right now:
1) Cheito
2) Pera
3) Bloomgren
Of course, Cheito is all on talk and reputation and nobody has thrown a pitch in anger yet. I might have a different idea after this weekend, but it would probably take more than that to change my mind.

What a ludicrous statement. Anyone who even attempts to judge Cheito on his first weekend of games against the consensus #1 team in the country, on the road, is not someone to be taken seriously. Personally, I think we'll be competitive, but geez.

Competitive is what I am hoping for, and I think Rice will be too. If they look hopelessly disorganized and get blown out three times, I might have some pause, but I don't really expect that, and if it did I would probably still give him more slack. This is Cheito's first coaching gig, and I would expect him to make a few game management mistakes. But I expect to see a team that busts ass and leaves it all out on the field.

Quote:Pera has been well below average in recruiting and keeping quality players

He’s done a great job recruiting. From what I’ve heard, he was the main guy on the trail under Rhodes. Signed Evans, Letcher-Ellis, and the other (relatively) highly rated recruits from the Rhodes years. Most of those guys had power 5 offers. Koulechov from the portal as well.

As head coach, he recruited 3 guys who now start for USC, FSU and Vandy. Was it his fault they transferred? Rice boosters needed to get these guys NIL deals to keep them on campus. Didn’t happen, and they left. This is the new reality, the monied schools will keep recruiting the best mid-major underclassmen. Unless Rice boosters get on the NIL train and protect their best players, this will continue. Who knows, maybe Kazemi, Ennis and the other transfers from the Braun years would have stayed on campus if Rice made an effort to protect their program from getting poached by blue bloods.

(02-14-2022 09:22 PM)Snozberry Wrote:  

Quote:Pera has been well below average in recruiting and keeping quality players

He’s done a great job recruiting. From what I’ve heard, he was the main guy on the trail under Rhodes. Signed Evans, Letcher-Ellis, and the other (relatively) highly rated recruits from the Rhodes years. Most of those guys had power 5 offers. Koulechov from the portal as well.

As head coach, he recruited 3 guys who now start for USC, FSU and Vandy. Was it his fault they transferred? Rice boosters needed to get these guys NIL deals to keep them on campus. Didn’t happen, and they left. This is the new reality, the monied schools will keep recruiting the best mid-major underclassmen. Unless Rice boosters get on the NIL train and protect their best players, this will continue. Who knows, maybe Kazemi, Ennis and the other transfers from the Braun years would have stayed on campus if Rice made an effort to protect their program from getting poached by blue bloods.

and a first round draft pick. Imagine if all them stayed....

(02-14-2022 09:22 PM)Snozberry Wrote:  

Quote:Pera has been well below average in recruiting and keeping quality players

He’s done a great job recruiting. From what I’ve heard, he was the main guy on the trail under Rhodes. Signed Evans, Letcher-Ellis, and the other (relatively) highly rated recruits from the Rhodes years. Most of those guys had power 5 offers. Koulechov from the portal as well.

As head coach, he recruited 3 guys who now start for USC, FSU and Vandy. Was it his fault they transferred? Rice boosters needed to get these guys NIL deals to keep them on campus. Didn’t happen, and they left. This is the new reality, the monied schools will keep recruiting the best mid-major underclassmen. Unless Rice boosters get on the NIL train and protect their best players, this will continue. Who knows, maybe Kazemi, Ennis and the other transfers from the Braun years would have stayed on campus if Rice made an effort to protect their program from getting poached by blue bloods.

NIL wasn't even an option when those guys were on campus. The NIL train is definitely something going forward, but had no impact on these guys leaving.

(02-14-2022 09:33 PM)texowl2 Wrote:  

(02-14-2022 09:22 PM)Snozberry Wrote:  

Quote:Pera has been well below average in recruiting and keeping quality players

He’s done a great job recruiting. From what I’ve heard, he was the main guy on the trail under Rhodes. Signed Evans, Letcher-Ellis, and the other (relatively) highly rated recruits from the Rhodes years. Most of those guys had power 5 offers. Koulechov from the portal as well.

As head coach, he recruited 3 guys who now start for USC, FSU and Vandy. Was it his fault they transferred? Rice boosters needed to get these guys NIL deals to keep them on campus. Didn’t happen, and they left. This is the new reality, the monied schools will keep recruiting the best mid-major underclassmen. Unless Rice boosters get on the NIL train and protect their best players, this will continue. Who knows, maybe Kazemi, Ennis and the other transfers from the Braun years would have stayed on campus if Rice made an effort to protect their program from getting poached by blue bloods.

and a first round draft pick. Imagine if all them stayed....

Ah, yes I forgot Murphy III. Perhaps the biggest loss. I would really like to know if Rice admin and/or boosters made any kind of effort to protect (and develop) the program. Or are they content with .500 ?

(02-14-2022 09:22 PM)Snozberry Wrote:  

Quote:Pera has been well below average in recruiting and keeping quality players

He’s done a great job recruiting.

That's why I wrote "recruiting AND keeping". It does no good to sign players who transfer before they are of any use.

(02-14-2022 09:36 PM)markbrindley Wrote:  

(02-14-2022 09:22 PM)Snozberry Wrote:  

Quote:Pera has been well below average in recruiting and keeping quality players

He’s done a great job recruiting. From what I’ve heard, he was the main guy on the trail under Rhodes. Signed Evans, Letcher-Ellis, and the other (relatively) highly rated recruits from the Rhodes years. Most of those guys had power 5 offers. Koulechov from the portal as well.

As head coach, he recruited 3 guys who now start for USC, FSU and Vandy. Was it his fault they transferred? Rice boosters needed to get these guys NIL deals to keep them on campus. Didn’t happen, and they left. This is the new reality, the monied schools will keep recruiting the best mid-major underclassmen. Unless Rice boosters get on the NIL train and protect their best players, this will continue. Who knows, maybe Kazemi, Ennis and the other transfers from the Braun years would have stayed on campus if Rice made an effort to protect their program from getting poached by blue bloods.

NIL wasn't even an option when those guys were on campus. The NIL train is definitely something going forward, but had no impact on these guys leaving.

NIL may have not been official yet, but that doesn’t change the fact that these guys were poached from Rice. The boosters from those schools took care of them, no doubt.

(02-14-2022 09:42 PM)Snozberry Wrote:  

(02-14-2022 09:36 PM)markbrindley Wrote:  

(02-14-2022 09:22 PM)Snozberry Wrote:  

Quote:Pera has been well below average in recruiting and keeping quality players

He’s done a great job recruiting. From what I’ve heard, he was the main guy on the trail under Rhodes. Signed Evans, Letcher-Ellis, and the other (relatively) highly rated recruits from the Rhodes years. Most of those guys had power 5 offers. Koulechov from the portal as well.

As head coach, he recruited 3 guys who now start for USC, FSU and Vandy. Was it his fault they transferred? Rice boosters needed to get these guys NIL deals to keep them on campus. Didn’t happen, and they left. This is the new reality, the monied schools will keep recruiting the best mid-major underclassmen. Unless Rice boosters get on the NIL train and protect their best players, this will continue. Who knows, maybe Kazemi, Ennis and the other transfers from the Braun years would have stayed on campus if Rice made an effort to protect their program from getting poached by blue bloods.

NIL wasn't even an option when those guys were on campus. The NIL train is definitely something going forward, but had no impact on these guys leaving.

NIL may have not been official yet, but that doesn’t change the fact that these guys were poached from Rice. The boosters from those schools took care of them, no doubt.

Are you actually suggesting Rice should have cheated because other schools and their boosters may have?

No thanks.

(02-14-2022 09:55 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  

(02-14-2022 09:42 PM)Snozberry Wrote:  

(02-14-2022 09:36 PM)markbrindley Wrote:  

(02-14-2022 09:22 PM)Snozberry Wrote:  

Quote:Pera has been well below average in recruiting and keeping quality players

He’s done a great job recruiting. From what I’ve heard, he was the main guy on the trail under Rhodes. Signed Evans, Letcher-Ellis, and the other (relatively) highly rated recruits from the Rhodes years. Most of those guys had power 5 offers. Koulechov from the portal as well.

As head coach, he recruited 3 guys who now start for USC, FSU and Vandy. Was it his fault they transferred? Rice boosters needed to get these guys NIL deals to keep them on campus. Didn’t happen, and they left. This is the new reality, the monied schools will keep recruiting the best mid-major underclassmen. Unless Rice boosters get on the NIL train and protect their best players, this will continue. Who knows, maybe Kazemi, Ennis and the other transfers from the Braun years would have stayed on campus if Rice made an effort to protect their program from getting poached by blue bloods.

NIL wasn't even an option when those guys were on campus. The NIL train is definitely something going forward, but had no impact on these guys leaving.

NIL may have not been official yet, but that doesn’t change the fact that these guys were poached from Rice. The boosters from those schools took care of them, no doubt.

Are you actually suggesting Rice should have cheated because other schools and their boosters may have?

No thanks.

i don't think boosters paying these kids was required, but some seem to think it's the only way a kid moves from one school to another. Snoz, there were plenty of other reasons for kids to leave - some for opportunity, some for grades, and others just to be somewhere else. Poaching from other schools has become a major problem in the NCAA and Rice is not alone in losing top talent year-in, year-out. Consistency in roster has definitely become a much more complex thing to maintain for any school but the P5, and even a few of them have issues.

NIL has changed the game, and you are right that Rice needs to find a way to compete in the new environment.

me·di·o·cre/ˌmēdēˈōkər/

adjective
of only moderate quality; not very good.

Team is not good enough to have success in a one-bid conference as a .500 conference team but team is not bad enough to easily move on (which will likely happen in FB this upcoming season).

Thus...stuck in suspended animation for at least one and maybe two-years. As John Wooden famously said, 'don't confuse effort with results'.

Pera is clearly a likable guy but what is expectation of results after being in the job now for five-years?

My $.02 is mediocre is the right word which makes it harder for JK given how high the likability (vs. capability) is.

After five-years, what are the goals? Does anyone see this staff taking these players to the NCAA tournament (which should be the ultimate goal IMO) in next 24-months and which would then be seven years on the job?

(02-15-2022 12:16 AM)owl40 Wrote:  After five-years, what are the goals? Does anyone see this staff taking these players to the NCAA tournament (which should be the ultimate goal IMO) in next 24-months and which would then be seven years on the job?

When no staff has done it in 52 years, I'm not sure it is a reasonable 5-year goal. It should be the goal every year, but I'm not sure that is realistic. But tangible progress toward that goal is, and should be. I've stated what my goals would be if I were AD, and winning conference is clearly one of them.

I think we have to address some root causes why players leave. The lack of student body interest and support makes Rice a very uncomfortable place to be a basketball player. Scot Thompson got students involved, and in doing so addressed that better than any previous Rice coach in my memory. I consider Chris del Conte and Bobby Tudor to be friends, and Tudor is a 1000% upgrade over Autry Court, but it's like putting lipstick on a pig. It's still a dump, and most of our recruits probably played in better gyms in HS. Scot Thompson also turned that around with the Jungle Gym concept (and Joyce Hardy's paying for air conditioning probably didn't hurt). Finally, any 18, 19, or 20 year old kid who is a long way from home gets homesick. So the students hate you, the gym sucks, and your family and girlfriend miss you--a pretty hard combo to overcome.

(02-14-2022 08:38 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  

(02-14-2022 05:20 PM)Kayjay Wrote:  The injury to Q has thrown a wrench in the lineup to say the least. Right now there are 4 players on the shelf, Lieppert and Olivari, who are both out for the season, and Geron and Hutchins, (I don’t know the timetable for their return). Hutchins was earning more PT when he got hurt and Geron would have received some more developmental minutes with Q’s injury but his foot was in a brace at the UNT game Saturday. I don’t know many coaches that can lose 4 players like the Owls have and not struggle. Even UH has lost their last 2 games since they lost Sasser and a couple other players. I don’t blame Pera for the injuries. I think he is really working hard to find the right combination(s) to compete and finish the season positively.

(1) Even with Olivari, Rice was not among the top 50% of Division I (according to Pomeroy);

(2) Every team has injuries - that's the reason why good recruiting is essential (and Pera has been well below average in recruiting and keeping quality players - their best player is a transfer good for just one season);

(3) Don't even compare Houston's losses to those by Rice. And though UH's players were WAY better than ours, they're still at #7 in Pomeroy.

Fact check on #1.
We were, until we weren’t.
Spent most of this season in the top half of most ranking systems, including KenPom.