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Five biggest losers from the college football transfer portal thus far
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Troy_Fan_15 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Five biggest losers from the college football transfer portal thus far
(01-27-2022 03:20 PM)Louisiana99 Wrote:  
(01-26-2022 11:27 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  I think Louisiana's run of dominance in the SBC west could come to an end in 2022. I believe A-State, South, and Troy (if we play in the west) will really push you guys this coming year and since you guys are weakened it could finally be the year somebody topples your kingdom. Not saying it will happen but I think the possibility is real.

October 19th 2017 is last time we lost a western division game. Not saying we won’t drop games but I don’t think this train is coming off the tracks or being toppled. 15 of our starters this year were recruited by mark hudspeth, Napier’s recruits haven’t started yet. CMD said in his press conference, this roster was built the right way and we don’t need to Raid the portal. Also you have to get back to 85 scholarships this year. A 13-1 championship team that had tremendous depth, that needs to cut to 85 won’t be bringing in a ton of transfers. We most likely lose the same guys if Napier stays and nobody would be saying anything about is being toppled.

That is why I said it could come to an end and not saying it definitely will. I will definitely say that I believe Louisiana will be the preseason favorite and will still be a tough team to beat and has the greatest chance at winning. I just don't think it's near as clear cut for 2022 as it has been the last few seasons.

Like every season for the last 3 years I am going to say that Louisiana & App State are going to be favorites with Coastal right on their heels. I believe Troy would have finished 2nd in the SBC west this season but we have a lot of questions marks surrounding us with new coaching as well.
01-27-2022 03:50 PM
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Oldyeller Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Five biggest losers from the college football transfer portal thus far
(01-27-2022 08:03 AM)GEAUX UL Wrote:  
(01-26-2022 06:10 PM)Oldyeller Wrote:  The trickle down definitely works in the G5s favor.

The P5 scrapes the cream from the top of the G5 to fill gaps.

The occasional G5 transfer enters the portal and lands in the P5 and "may" start.

Every P5 entering the portal landing in the G5 is pretty much guaranteed a starting spot increasing his chances of getting noticed.

Football is so data driven that mediocrity based on the numbers no matter where you play gets little if any attention.

Be a standout at say GS or whoever vs a warm body at say UNC or Duke or whoever?

What would you do? Or what would you do if your smart?

That was true before NIL. But now that most if not all of these players will be getting paid to sit the bench at a P5, I don’t see many of them transferring and giving up that paycheck.

Depends on who you are and if you hope to make it to the next level. If you don't we don't want you.
01-27-2022 08:04 PM
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TroyFootball05 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Five biggest losers from the college football transfer portal thus far
(01-27-2022 03:20 PM)Louisiana99 Wrote:  
(01-26-2022 11:27 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  I think Louisiana's run of dominance in the SBC west could come to an end in 2022. I believe A-State, South, and Troy (if we play in the west) will really push you guys this coming year and since you guys are weakened it could finally be the year somebody topples your kingdom. Not saying it will happen but I think the possibility is real.

October 19th 2017 is last time we lost a western division game. Not saying we won’t drop games but I don’t think this train is coming off the tracks or being toppled. 15 of our starters this year were recruited by mark hudspeth, Napier’s recruits haven’t started yet. CMD said in his press conference, this roster was built the right way and we don’t need to Raid the portal. Also you have to get back to 85 scholarships this year. A 13-1 championship team that had tremendous depth, that needs to cut to 85 won’t be bringing in a ton of transfers. We most likely lose the same guys if Napier stays and nobody would be saying anything about is being toppled.

I'm seeing 7 to 9 wins. Very unlikely the Cajuns make it to double digits in 2022. The Cajuns didn't hire a Chip Lindsey caliber coach, so the train isn't going to be derailed.

That said, I think the Cajun faithful are underestimating the impact of what's happening right now. New HC, OC, DC, and STC is usually enough to have a significant impact, but there are systems in place. That said, it's unlikely it will be 100% as effective as Napier's version. It's a copy (Napier) of a copy (Saban / Dabo), and you lose stuff along the way.

The Cajuns will also have a new quarterback. Another significant change that can make or break a program. I don't think this should be understated. Having a talented player waiting in the wings is one thing, but the Cajuns haven't really played any backup QBs in any meaningful snaps, with one guy having 13 attempts all of last season.

Six players have transferred to P5 programs, five more have entered the portal. This is significant, especially at OL, where there is a new QB, and reduced depth at running back (the Cajuns lose two of their top three rushers). The Cajuns also lose their top two tacklers (top three linebackers).

The Cajuns were a talented team in 2021, but also had a lot of balls bounce their way. The Cajuns ranked second nationally in turnover margin at +15. This number is second in the SBC since 2009, behind only Georgia Southern in 2018 who had a ridiculous(!) +22 turnover margin. It's very rare for a team to get close to numbers like this two years in a row, and you should see a significant drop off in this area in 2022.

Teams with 3+ close wins usually lose close games the following season. The Cajuns had not just three, but seven wins that were one score games when the clock hit zero. With the turnover in staff, I expect they won't play with the same edge. Players will have to get used to different faces in different roles, some new, some old. This is not as easy as some believe, and with reduced turnover contribution, they will lose a few close games they wouldn't have in 2021.

Individually, these are problem areas that can be overcome during the offseason. But together, I suspect there is going to be less cohesiveness than Cajun fans expect, and a few things in a game here, a few things in a game there, will prevent them from having another double digit win season.
01-28-2022 12:56 PM
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Louisiana99 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Five biggest losers from the college football transfer portal thus far
(01-28-2022 12:56 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(01-27-2022 03:20 PM)Louisiana99 Wrote:  
(01-26-2022 11:27 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  I think Louisiana's run of dominance in the SBC west could come to an end in 2022. I believe A-State, South, and Troy (if we play in the west) will really push you guys this coming year and since you guys are weakened it could finally be the year somebody topples your kingdom. Not saying it will happen but I think the possibility is real.

October 19th 2017 is last time we lost a western division game. Not saying we won’t drop games but I don’t think this train is coming off the tracks or being toppled. 15 of our starters this year were recruited by mark hudspeth, Napier’s recruits haven’t started yet. CMD said in his press conference, this roster was built the right way and we don’t need to Raid the portal. Also you have to get back to 85 scholarships this year. A 13-1 championship team that had tremendous depth, that needs to cut to 85 won’t be bringing in a ton of transfers. We most likely lose the same guys if Napier stays and nobody would be saying anything about is being toppled.

I'm seeing 7 to 9 wins. Very unlikely the Cajuns make it to double digits in 2022. The Cajuns didn't hire a Chip Lindsey caliber coach, so the train isn't going to be derailed.

That said, I think the Cajun faithful are underestimating the impact of what's happening right now. New HC, OC, DC, and STC is usually enough to have a significant impact, but there are systems in place. That said, it's unlikely it will be 100% as effective as Napier's version. It's a copy (Napier) of a copy (Saban / Dabo), and you lose stuff along the way.

The Cajuns will also have a new quarterback. Another significant change that can make or break a program. I don't think this should be understated. Having a talented player waiting in the wings is one thing, but the Cajuns haven't really played any backup QBs in any meaningful snaps, with one guy having 13 attempts all of last season.

Six players have transferred to P5 programs, five more have entered the portal. This is significant, especially at OL, where there is a new QB, and reduced depth at running back (the Cajuns lose two of their top three rushers). The Cajuns also lose their top two tacklers (top three linebackers).

The Cajuns were a talented team in 2021, but also had a lot of balls bounce their way. The Cajuns ranked second nationally in turnover margin at +15. This number is second in the SBC since 2009, behind only Georgia Southern in 2018 who had a ridiculous(!) +22 turnover margin. It's very rare for a team to get close to numbers like this two years in a row, and you should see a significant drop off in this area in 2022.

Teams with 3+ close wins usually lose close games the following season. The Cajuns had not just three, but seven wins that were one score games when the clock hit zero. With the turnover in staff, I expect they won't play with the same edge. Players will have to get used to different faces in different roles, some new, some old. This is not as easy as some believe, and with reduced turnover contribution, they will lose a few close games they wouldn't have in 2021.

Individually, these are problem areas that can be overcome during the offseason. But together, I suspect there is going to be less cohesiveness than Cajun fans expect, and a few things in a game here, a few things in a game there, will prevent them from having another double digit win season.

If we win 9 games there is a good chance we are 6-0..5-1 in the west.
01-28-2022 03:15 PM
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FrankyP Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Five biggest losers from the college football transfer portal thus far
(01-28-2022 03:15 PM)Louisiana99 Wrote:  
(01-28-2022 12:56 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(01-27-2022 03:20 PM)Louisiana99 Wrote:  
(01-26-2022 11:27 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  I think Louisiana's run of dominance in the SBC west could come to an end in 2022. I believe A-State, South, and Troy (if we play in the west) will really push you guys this coming year and since you guys are weakened it could finally be the year somebody topples your kingdom. Not saying it will happen but I think the possibility is real.

October 19th 2017 is last time we lost a western division game. Not saying we won’t drop games but I don’t think this train is coming off the tracks or being toppled. 15 of our starters this year were recruited by mark hudspeth, Napier’s recruits haven’t started yet. CMD said in his press conference, this roster was built the right way and we don’t need to Raid the portal. Also you have to get back to 85 scholarships this year. A 13-1 championship team that had tremendous depth, that needs to cut to 85 won’t be bringing in a ton of transfers. We most likely lose the same guys if Napier stays and nobody would be saying anything about is being toppled.

I'm seeing 7 to 9 wins. Very unlikely the Cajuns make it to double digits in 2022. The Cajuns didn't hire a Chip Lindsey caliber coach, so the train isn't going to be derailed.

That said, I think the Cajun faithful are underestimating the impact of what's happening right now. New HC, OC, DC, and STC is usually enough to have a significant impact, but there are systems in place. That said, it's unlikely it will be 100% as effective as Napier's version. It's a copy (Napier) of a copy (Saban / Dabo), and you lose stuff along the way.

The Cajuns will also have a new quarterback. Another significant change that can make or break a program. I don't think this should be understated. Having a talented player waiting in the wings is one thing, but the Cajuns haven't really played any backup QBs in any meaningful snaps, with one guy having 13 attempts all of last season.

Six players have transferred to P5 programs, five more have entered the portal. This is significant, especially at OL, where there is a new QB, and reduced depth at running back (the Cajuns lose two of their top three rushers). The Cajuns also lose their top two tacklers (top three linebackers).

The Cajuns were a talented team in 2021, but also had a lot of balls bounce their way. The Cajuns ranked second nationally in turnover margin at +15. This number is second in the SBC since 2009, behind only Georgia Southern in 2018 who had a ridiculous(!) +22 turnover margin. It's very rare for a team to get close to numbers like this two years in a row, and you should see a significant drop off in this area in 2022.

Teams with 3+ close wins usually lose close games the following season. The Cajuns had not just three, but seven wins that were one score games when the clock hit zero. With the turnover in staff, I expect they won't play with the same edge. Players will have to get used to different faces in different roles, some new, some old. This is not as easy as some believe, and with reduced turnover contribution, they will lose a few close games they wouldn't have in 2021.

Individually, these are problem areas that can be overcome during the offseason. But together, I suspect there is going to be less cohesiveness than Cajun fans expect, and a few things in a game here, a few things in a game there, will prevent them from having another double digit win season.

If we win 9 games there is a good chance we are 6-0..5-1 in the west.
First, I have an issue with this statement:

“It's a copy (Napier) of a copy (Saban / Dabo), and you lose stuff along the way.”

Really? I think it’s just as, if not more, likely that Napier improved on what he copied from Saban/Dabo. His record over the last 4 years is evidence to that. Next, CMD was with him every step of the way, so to say he will automatically ‘lose stuff’ seems to me like a lot of wishful thinking/hoping, lol.

And the same can be said of just about every ‘assumption’ you are making. At every turn you are assuming the worst. You are completely ignoring how deep we are, and how ingrained what CBN and CMD built over the last 4 years is in the program.

And yes, there are some Cajun fans who are assuming very little negative impact.

I think the truth will be somewhere in between: a really good chance of an 8-9 win season, with some ‘luck’ maybe as high as 10.
01-28-2022 04:57 PM
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TroyFootball05 Offline
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RE: Five biggest losers from the college football transfer portal thus far
(01-28-2022 04:57 PM)FrankyP Wrote:  First, I have an issue with this statement:

“It's a copy (Napier) of a copy (Saban / Dabo), and you lose stuff along the way.”

Really? I think it’s just as, if not more, likely that Napier improved on what he copied from Saban/Dabo. His record over the last 4 years is evidence to that. Next, CMD was with him every step of the way, so to say he will automatically ‘lose stuff’ seems to me like a lot of wishful thinking/hoping, lol.

And the same can be said of just about every ‘assumption’ you are making. At every turn you are assuming the worst. You are completely ignoring how deep we are, and how ingrained what CBN and CMD built over the last 4 years is in the program.

And yes, there are some Cajun fans who are assuming very little negative impact.

I think the truth will be somewhere in between: a really good chance of an 8-9 win season, with some ‘luck’ maybe as high as 10.

How am I assuming the worst, if we are suggesting virtually the same win loss record? You can call it wishful thinking, but I call it entropy. Systems operating at that high of a level can be sustained if the system isn't messed with. A lot of things have changed, it's not just "one thing", and that's all I'm really saying. It's not assuming the worst, it's in line with what typically happens in college football under these circumstances. If you want to say your program is special I won't fault you for that. Maybe it is, and for the Sun Belt's sake, I hope it is.
(This post was last modified: 01-28-2022 05:16 PM by TroyFootball05.)
01-28-2022 05:16 PM
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Louisiana99 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Five biggest losers from the college football transfer portal thus far
(01-28-2022 04:57 PM)FrankyP Wrote:  
(01-28-2022 03:15 PM)Louisiana99 Wrote:  
(01-28-2022 12:56 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(01-27-2022 03:20 PM)Louisiana99 Wrote:  
(01-26-2022 11:27 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  I think Louisiana's run of dominance in the SBC west could come to an end in 2022. I believe A-State, South, and Troy (if we play in the west) will really push you guys this coming year and since you guys are weakened it could finally be the year somebody topples your kingdom. Not saying it will happen but I think the possibility is real.

October 19th 2017 is last time we lost a western division game. Not saying we won’t drop games but I don’t think this train is coming off the tracks or being toppled. 15 of our starters this year were recruited by mark hudspeth, Napier’s recruits haven’t started yet. CMD said in his press conference, this roster was built the right way and we don’t need to Raid the portal. Also you have to get back to 85 scholarships this year. A 13-1 championship team that had tremendous depth, that needs to cut to 85 won’t be bringing in a ton of transfers. We most likely lose the same guys if Napier stays and nobody would be saying anything about is being toppled.

I'm seeing 7 to 9 wins. Very unlikely the Cajuns make it to double digits in 2022. The Cajuns didn't hire a Chip Lindsey caliber coach, so the train isn't going to be derailed.

That said, I think the Cajun faithful are underestimating the impact of what's happening right now. New HC, OC, DC, and STC is usually enough to have a significant impact, but there are systems in place. That said, it's unlikely it will be 100% as effective as Napier's version. It's a copy (Napier) of a copy (Saban / Dabo), and you lose stuff along the way.

The Cajuns will also have a new quarterback. Another significant change that can make or break a program. I don't think this should be understated. Having a talented player waiting in the wings is one thing, but the Cajuns haven't really played any backup QBs in any meaningful snaps, with one guy having 13 attempts all of last season.

Six players have transferred to P5 programs, five more have entered the portal. This is significant, especially at OL, where there is a new QB, and reduced depth at running back (the Cajuns lose two of their top three rushers). The Cajuns also lose their top two tacklers (top three linebackers).

The Cajuns were a talented team in 2021, but also had a lot of balls bounce their way. The Cajuns ranked second nationally in turnover margin at +15. This number is second in the SBC since 2009, behind only Georgia Southern in 2018 who had a ridiculous(!) +22 turnover margin. It's very rare for a team to get close to numbers like this two years in a row, and you should see a significant drop off in this area in 2022.

Teams with 3+ close wins usually lose close games the following season. The Cajuns had not just three, but seven wins that were one score games when the clock hit zero. With the turnover in staff, I expect they won't play with the same edge. Players will have to get used to different faces in different roles, some new, some old. This is not as easy as some believe, and with reduced turnover contribution, they will lose a few close games they wouldn't have in 2021.

Individually, these are problem areas that can be overcome during the offseason. But together, I suspect there is going to be less cohesiveness than Cajun fans expect, and a few things in a game here, a few things in a game there, will prevent them from having another double digit win season.

If we win 9 games there is a good chance we are 6-0..5-1 in the west.
First, I have an issue with this statement:

“It's a copy (Napier) of a copy (Saban / Dabo), and you lose stuff along the way.”

Really? I think it’s just as, if not more, likely that Napier improved on what he copied from Saban/Dabo. His record over the last 4 years is evidence to that. Next, CMD was with him every step of the way, so to say he will automatically ‘lose stuff’ seems to me like a lot of wishful thinking/hoping, lol.

And the same can be said of just about every ‘assumption’ you are making. At every turn you are assuming the worst. You are completely ignoring how deep we are, and how ingrained what CBN and CMD built over the last 4 years is in the program.

And yes, there are some Cajun fans who are assuming very little negative impact.

I think the truth will be somewhere in between: a really good chance of an 8-9 win season, with some ‘luck’ maybe as high as 10.

It’s also assuming that we are the only team in the league losing anything. Other teens graduate people, lose coaches and transfers. Even if the new teams join and Troy comes over, we are the only team with a winning record from 2021
01-28-2022 05:29 PM
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TroyFootball05 Offline
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RE: Five biggest losers from the college football transfer portal thus far
(01-28-2022 05:29 PM)Louisiana99 Wrote:  It’s also assuming that we are the only team in the league losing anything. Other teens graduate people, lose coaches and transfers. Even if the new teams join and Troy comes over, we are the only team with a winning record from 2021

Again, all I'm really saying is there are a lot of changes to consider, probably more than any other team in the league not named Troy or Georgia Southern. If your team overcomes them, it's great for the league, and I'm all for it.

No one is saying the train has left the station, it's more of nod to how hard it is to stay on top of the world when you just went 13-1.
01-28-2022 06:01 PM
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Louisiana99 Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Five biggest losers from the college football transfer portal thus far
(01-28-2022 06:01 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(01-28-2022 05:29 PM)Louisiana99 Wrote:  It’s also assuming that we are the only team in the league losing anything. Other teens graduate people, lose coaches and transfers. Even if the new teams join and Troy comes over, we are the only team with a winning record from 2021

Again, all I'm really saying is there are a lot of changes to consider, probably more than any other team in the league not named Troy or Georgia Southern. If your team overcomes them, it's great for the league, and I'm all for it.

No one is saying the train has left the station, it's more of nod to how hard it is to stay on top of the world when you just went 13-1.

Not sure I’d compare the SBC west to top of the world. 6 teams with losing records returning everyone isn’t necessarily a good thing either. We will find out but I think people are kidding themselves if they think we are void of talent. The only position we have that didn’t coach here under Napier is Jorge Munoz, who coached Desormeaux here and Joe Burrow at LSU.
01-28-2022 06:18 PM
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Purplehazed Offline
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RE: Five biggest losers from the college football transfer portal thus far
(01-26-2022 04:43 PM)BamaCajun Wrote:  
(01-26-2022 12:26 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  UVA took a big hit losing 20 players, 6 on the offensive line, that would crush any program.

True, but since the Cavs are rarely in contention for anything football, it doesn't rise to the level of loss.

As long as the whoos fans can drink chardonnay and eat cheese they don't care
01-28-2022 06:48 PM
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SouthernMiss3613 Offline
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RE: Five biggest losers from the college football transfer portal thus far
(01-28-2022 12:56 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(01-27-2022 03:20 PM)Louisiana99 Wrote:  
(01-26-2022 11:27 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  I think Louisiana's run of dominance in the SBC west could come to an end in 2022. I believe A-State, South, and Troy (if we play in the west) will really push you guys this coming year and since you guys are weakened it could finally be the year somebody topples your kingdom. Not saying it will happen but I think the possibility is real.

October 19th 2017 is last time we lost a western division game. Not saying we won’t drop games but I don’t think this train is coming off the tracks or being toppled. 15 of our starters this year were recruited by mark hudspeth, Napier’s recruits haven’t started yet. CMD said in his press conference, this roster was built the right way and we don’t need to Raid the portal. Also you have to get back to 85 scholarships this year. A 13-1 championship team that had tremendous depth, that needs to cut to 85 won’t be bringing in a ton of transfers. We most likely lose the same guys if Napier stays and nobody would be saying anything about is being toppled.

I'm seeing 7 to 9 wins. Very unlikely the Cajuns make it to double digits in 2022. The Cajuns didn't hire a Chip Lindsey caliber coach, so the train isn't going to be derailed.

That said, I think the Cajun faithful are underestimating the impact of what's happening right now. New HC, OC, DC, and STC is usually enough to have a significant impact, but there are systems in place. That said, it's unlikely it will be 100% as effective as Napier's version. It's a copy (Napier) of a copy (Saban / Dabo), and you lose stuff along the way.

The Cajuns will also have a new quarterback. Another significant change that can make or break a program. I don't think this should be understated. Having a talented player waiting in the wings is one thing, but the Cajuns haven't really played any backup QBs in any meaningful snaps, with one guy having 13 attempts all of last season.

Six players have transferred to P5 programs, five more have entered the portal. This is significant, especially at OL, where there is a new QB, and reduced depth at running back (the Cajuns lose two of their top three rushers). The Cajuns also lose their top two tacklers (top three linebackers).

The Cajuns were a talented team in 2021, but also had a lot of balls bounce their way. The Cajuns ranked second nationally in turnover margin at +15. This number is second in the SBC since 2009, behind only Georgia Southern in 2018 who had a ridiculous(!) +22 turnover margin. It's very rare for a team to get close to numbers like this two years in a row, and you should see a significant drop off in this area in 2022.

Teams with 3+ close wins usually lose close games the following season. The Cajuns had not just three, but seven wins that were one score games when the clock hit zero. With the turnover in staff, I expect they won't play with the same edge. Players will have to get used to different faces in different roles, some new, some old. This is not as easy as some believe, and with reduced turnover contribution, they will lose a few close games they wouldn't have in 2021.

Individually, these are problem areas that can be overcome during the offseason. But together, I suspect there is going to be less cohesiveness than Cajun fans expect, and a few things in a game here, a few things in a game there, will prevent them from having another double digit win season.

Did you put this together or take it from an article? You are the man if you did all this research.
01-28-2022 08:17 PM
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SouthernMiss3613 Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Five biggest losers from the college football transfer portal thus far
(01-28-2022 06:48 PM)Purplehazed Wrote:  
(01-26-2022 04:43 PM)BamaCajun Wrote:  
(01-26-2022 12:26 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  UVA took a big hit losing 20 players, 6 on the offensive line, that would crush any program.

True, but since the Cavs are rarely in contention for anything football, it doesn't rise to the level of loss.

As long as the whoos fans can drink chardonnay and eat cheese they don't care

It crazy that they have gotten a NC in both basketball and baseball recently.
01-28-2022 08:24 PM
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Louisiana99 Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Five biggest losers from the college football transfer portal thus far
(01-28-2022 08:17 PM)SouthernMiss3613 Wrote:  
(01-28-2022 12:56 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(01-27-2022 03:20 PM)Louisiana99 Wrote:  
(01-26-2022 11:27 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  I think Louisiana's run of dominance in the SBC west could come to an end in 2022. I believe A-State, South, and Troy (if we play in the west) will really push you guys this coming year and since you guys are weakened it could finally be the year somebody topples your kingdom. Not saying it will happen but I think the possibility is real.

October 19th 2017 is last time we lost a western division game. Not saying we won’t drop games but I don’t think this train is coming off the tracks or being toppled. 15 of our starters this year were recruited by mark hudspeth, Napier’s recruits haven’t started yet. CMD said in his press conference, this roster was built the right way and we don’t need to Raid the portal. Also you have to get back to 85 scholarships this year. A 13-1 championship team that had tremendous depth, that needs to cut to 85 won’t be bringing in a ton of transfers. We most likely lose the same guys if Napier stays and nobody would be saying anything about is being toppled.

I'm seeing 7 to 9 wins. Very unlikely the Cajuns make it to double digits in 2022. The Cajuns didn't hire a Chip Lindsey caliber coach, so the train isn't going to be derailed.

That said, I think the Cajun faithful are underestimating the impact of what's happening right now. New HC, OC, DC, and STC is usually enough to have a significant impact, but there are systems in place. That said, it's unlikely it will be 100% as effective as Napier's version. It's a copy (Napier) of a copy (Saban / Dabo), and you lose stuff along the way.

The Cajuns will also have a new quarterback. Another significant change that can make or break a program. I don't think this should be understated. Having a talented player waiting in the wings is one thing, but the Cajuns haven't really played any backup QBs in any meaningful snaps, with one guy having 13 attempts all of last season.

Six players have transferred to P5 programs, five more have entered the portal. This is significant, especially at OL, where there is a new QB, and reduced depth at running back (the Cajuns lose two of their top three rushers). The Cajuns also lose their top two tacklers (top three linebackers).

The Cajuns were a talented team in 2021, but also had a lot of balls bounce their way. The Cajuns ranked second nationally in turnover margin at +15. This number is second in the SBC since 2009, behind only Georgia Southern in 2018 who had a ridiculous(!) +22 turnover margin. It's very rare for a team to get close to numbers like this two years in a row, and you should see a significant drop off in this area in 2022.

Teams with 3+ close wins usually lose close games the following season. The Cajuns had not just three, but seven wins that were one score games when the clock hit zero. With the turnover in staff, I expect they won't play with the same edge. Players will have to get used to different faces in different roles, some new, some old. This is not as easy as some believe, and with reduced turnover contribution, they will lose a few close games they wouldn't have in 2021.

Individually, these are problem areas that can be overcome during the offseason. But together, I suspect there is going to be less cohesiveness than Cajun fans expect, and a few things in a game here, a few things in a game there, will prevent them from having another double digit win season.

Did you put this together or take it from an article? You are the man if you did all this research.

He followed Florida Twitter, when he says “new”... all those coaches were promoted, they have been here, they aren’t new. We have one 1 new coach, TE/AHC Jorge Munoz who coached head coach Michael Desormeaux when he played here and was at UL for a decade and was joe burrows QB coach. Every single other coach on staff coached under Billy Napier at UL.
01-28-2022 09:46 PM
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TroyFootball05 Offline
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RE: Five biggest losers from the college football transfer portal thus far
(01-28-2022 09:46 PM)Louisiana99 Wrote:  
(01-28-2022 08:17 PM)SouthernMiss3613 Wrote:  Did you put this together or take it from an article? You are the man if you did all this research.

He followed Florida Twitter, when he says “new”... all those coaches were promoted, they have been here, they aren’t new. We have one 1 new coach, TE/AHC Jorge Munoz who coached head coach Michael Desormeaux when he played here and was at UL for a decade and was joe burrows QB coach. Every single other coach on staff coached under Billy Napier at UL.

What you've said here is mostly false, based on information that can be found on your own school's website.

If your coordinators or position coaches were not in those roles last season, then they are "new" coordinators or position coaches. They don't just inherit the previous guys experience by osmosis.

The DC job went to guy who has never been a defensive coordinator at any level, and has only ever been a DBs coach, albeit a very, very good one. So I think I'm qualified in saying the Cajuns have a new defensive coordinator. He was on the Cajun's staff as a DBs coach, but most recently at Vanderbilt. You could call that a promotion I guess, but its a stretch considering he wasn't on Napier's staff in 2021.

The Cajun's Special Teams Coordinator was hired by Napier at Florida eight days ago. Safe to say you have a new one there too.

Louisiana's head OL coach was at FAU the past two seasons and hasn't worked with Napier since he was at North Alabama. This is a good hire, but not an internal promotion like you've suggested.

Neither was Wes Neighbors (Associate Head Coach/OLB), who most recently spent time at South Florida, Florida Atlantic, and Alabama.

Matt Bergeron (RBs coach), was an analyst the past two seasons, and only recently served as interim running backs coach in the New Orleans Bowl. I'll give you credit and say he is not new to the Cajuns, but you knew what I meant when I said new.

Regarding the OC job, I'm aware he was the Co-OC last season with Desormeaux, so I'll give you that and say there's enough continuity there where there shouldn't be a learning curve. It's worth noting Napier was the primary play caller, but between Desormeaux and Leger, considering their backgrounds, it should work out fine.

Being nit picky here, but Munoz was not Joe Burrow's QB coach, though he did have a hand in his development. Steve Ensminger was LSU's QBs coach and offensive coordinator. Munoz was an offensive analyst. It's a very good hire regardless.
(This post was last modified: 01-28-2022 11:13 PM by TroyFootball05.)
01-28-2022 11:04 PM
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TroyFootball05 Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Five biggest losers from the college football transfer portal thus far
(01-28-2022 08:17 PM)SouthernMiss3613 Wrote:  Did you put this together or take it from an article? You are the man if you did all this research.

I enjoy doing this kind of research every once and while. It's just information, while some people might take it as an afront to their program, I actually do want all SBC programs to succeed. I don't always get everything right, but it's fun to do when you have a Friday to waste on nothing important.
(This post was last modified: 01-28-2022 11:17 PM by TroyFootball05.)
01-28-2022 11:05 PM
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Post: #36
RE: Five biggest losers from the college football transfer portal thus far
(01-28-2022 11:05 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  I enjoy doing this kind of research every once and while. It's just information, while some people might take it as an afront to their program, I actually do want all SBC programs to succeed. I don't always get everything right, but it's fun to do when you have a Friday to waste on nothing important.

Well, I don’t really take it as an insult to our program. And I do think it’s kind of odd that while I disagree with much of what you have said, we do end up at roughly the same conclusion. Although, with my vermilion-colored glasses firmly on, I think it will not be too much of a stretch to see us get to 10 wins in 2022.

But again, my main disagreements with your opinions is that you seem to jump to a few things that can easily be seen in another light:

—-Your assumption that CMD will not be able to sustain the cULture that Napier and he have built over the last 4 years is off-base. I just don’t see why both CBN and more importantly, Dr Maggard, would’ve been willing to trust him with him with the keys to kingdom if that was not the case.

—-I also think your research failed to include just how deep we are, which will really offset the loses we are having.

—-I also think you are being waaaay to nit-picky about how to classify our ‘new’ coaches. Even though they might not have done the new jobs they have, the fact that they were currently on-staff puts them in a different category.

Just my thoughts.
01-29-2022 09:59 AM
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Post: #37
RE: Five biggest losers from the college football transfer portal thus far
(01-27-2022 03:20 PM)Louisiana99 Wrote:  
(01-26-2022 11:27 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  I think Louisiana's run of dominance in the SBC west could come to an end in 2022. I believe A-State, South, and Troy (if we play in the west) will really push you guys this coming year and since you guys are weakened it could finally be the year somebody topples your kingdom. Not saying it will happen but I think the possibility is real.

October 19th 2017 is last time we lost a western division game. Not saying we won’t drop games but I don’t think this train is coming off the tracks or being toppled. 15 of our starters this year were recruited by mark hudspeth, Napier’s recruits haven’t started yet. CMD said in his press conference, this roster was built the right way and we don’t need to Raid the portal. Also you have to get back to 85 scholarships this year. A 13-1 championship team that had tremendous depth, that needs to cut to 85 won’t be bringing in a ton of transfers. We most likely lose the same guys if Napier stays and nobody would be saying anything about is being toppled.
The " roster was built the right way and we don’t need to Raid the portal" would worry me as a Cajun fan, as the world just changed. It's already hurt you, but your coach could be choosing to use it to your advantage but is insisting on going "old school" and that could be disastrous.
01-29-2022 10:32 AM
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Post: #38
RE: Five biggest losers from the college football transfer portal thus far
(01-27-2022 08:04 PM)Oldyeller Wrote:  
(01-27-2022 08:03 AM)GEAUX UL Wrote:  
(01-26-2022 06:10 PM)Oldyeller Wrote:  The trickle down definitely works in the G5s favor.

The P5 scrapes the cream from the top of the G5 to fill gaps.

The occasional G5 transfer enters the portal and lands in the P5 and "may" start.

Every P5 entering the portal landing in the G5 is pretty much guaranteed a starting spot increasing his chances of getting noticed.

Football is so data driven that mediocrity based on the numbers no matter where you play gets little if any attention.

Be a standout at say GS or whoever vs a warm body at say UNC or Duke or whoever?

What would you do? Or what would you do if your smart?

That was true before NIL. But now that most if not all of these players will be getting paid to sit the bench at a P5, I don’t see many of them transferring and giving up that paycheck.

Depends on who you are and if you hope to make it to the next level. If you don't we don't want you.
Huh? Lots of players are GREAT college players with zero shot at the NFL. The reason I would be wary of a player content to sit the bench is a lack of love for the game and competitive fire. Granted, if you leave because you can't crack the starting line-up people say you don't want to have to fight for it, so . . .
01-29-2022 10:37 AM
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RE: Five biggest losers from the college football transfer portal thus far
(01-29-2022 09:59 AM)FrankyP Wrote:  —-Your assumption that CMD will not be able to sustain the cULture that Napier and he have built over the last 4 years is off-base. I just don’t see why both CBN and more importantly, Dr Maggard, would’ve been willing to trust him with him with the keys to kingdom if that was not the case.

They don't have a crystal ball. They think (and hope) he can, but there is no way to know until he gets his shot. The number of players leaving makes it seem to an outsider that the team sees a difference between the two coaches. Personally, I like promoting from within when you have a HC hired away and wish USM had done it after Fedora and Mullens.
01-29-2022 10:47 AM
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RE: Five biggest losers from the college football transfer portal thus far
(01-28-2022 11:04 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  
(01-28-2022 09:46 PM)Louisiana99 Wrote:  
(01-28-2022 08:17 PM)SouthernMiss3613 Wrote:  Did you put this together or take it from an article? You are the man if you did all this research.

He followed Florida Twitter, when he says “new”... all those coaches were promoted, they have been here, they aren’t new. We have one 1 new coach, TE/AHC Jorge Munoz who coached head coach Michael Desormeaux when he played here and was at UL for a decade and was joe burrows QB coach. Every single other coach on staff coached under Billy Napier at UL.

What you've said here is mostly false, based on information that can be found on your own school's website.

If your coordinators or position coaches were not in those roles last season, then they are "new" coordinators or position coaches. They don't just inherit the previous guys experience by osmosis.

The DC job went to guy who has never been a defensive coordinator at any level, and has only ever been a DBs coach, albeit a very, very good one. So I think I'm qualified in saying the Cajuns have a new defensive coordinator. He was on the Cajun's staff as a DBs coach, but most recently at Vanderbilt. You could call that a promotion I guess, but its a stretch considering he wasn't on Napier's staff in 2021.

The Cajun's Special Teams Coordinator was hired by Napier at Florida eight days ago. Safe to say you have a new one there too.

Louisiana's head OL coach was at FAU the past two seasons and hasn't worked with Napier since he was at North Alabama. This is a good hire, but not an internal promotion like you've suggested.

Neither was Wes Neighbors (Associate Head Coach/OLB), who most recently spent time at South Florida, Florida Atlantic, and Alabama.

Matt Bergeron (RBs coach), was an analyst the past two seasons, and only recently served as interim running backs coach in the New Orleans Bowl. I'll give you credit and say he is not new to the Cajuns, but you knew what I meant when I said new.

Regarding the OC job, I'm aware he was the Co-OC last season with Desormeaux, so I'll give you that and say there's enough continuity there where there shouldn't be a learning curve. It's worth noting Napier was the primary play caller, but between Desormeaux and Leger, considering their backgrounds, it should work out fine.

Being nit picky here, but Munoz was not Joe Burrow's QB coach, though he did have a hand in his development. Steve Ensminger was LSU's QBs coach and offensive coordinator. Munoz was an offensive analyst. It's a very good hire regardless.

They are not new, they are not new people. They know the players, they worked hand in hand with the guys that left. Billy raided the support staff, not really the coaching staff. It was the off the field people. You are completely wrong on the OL coach Norrid was here last year, Neighbors you are wrong also bc he was the safeties coach last year and the DC in the bowl game. Bryant Ross the other OL coach was here with Rob Sale and DJ Looney. Lamar almost got the DC job when Robert’s left but it went to Toney so we lost Lamar. Desormeaux will be a better play caller than Napier, that was not Napier’s strength at all IMO. I don’t care what Ensmingers title was, Burrow literally singled out and thanked Munoz in his heisman speech for his development. Our strength coach Connor neighbors was also here under Hocke and previously worked under Tommy moffit and Scott Cochran. He learned under 3 of the best in the business. I know people here are praying that we are about to fall apart, we aren’t.
01-29-2022 10:53 AM
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