(01-27-2022 03:20 PM)Louisiana99 Wrote: (01-26-2022 11:27 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote: I think Louisiana's run of dominance in the SBC west could come to an end in 2022. I believe A-State, South, and Troy (if we play in the west) will really push you guys this coming year and since you guys are weakened it could finally be the year somebody topples your kingdom. Not saying it will happen but I think the possibility is real.
October 19th 2017 is last time we lost a western division game. Not saying we won’t drop games but I don’t think this train is coming off the tracks or being toppled. 15 of our starters this year were recruited by mark hudspeth, Napier’s recruits haven’t started yet. CMD said in his press conference, this roster was built the right way and we don’t need to Raid the portal. Also you have to get back to 85 scholarships this year. A 13-1 championship team that had tremendous depth, that needs to cut to 85 won’t be bringing in a ton of transfers. We most likely lose the same guys if Napier stays and nobody would be saying anything about is being toppled.
I'm seeing 7 to 9 wins. Very unlikely the Cajuns make it to double digits in 2022. The Cajuns didn't hire a Chip Lindsey caliber coach, so the train isn't going to be derailed.
That said, I think the Cajun faithful are underestimating the impact of what's happening right now. New HC, OC, DC, and STC is usually enough to have a significant impact, but there are systems in place. That said, it's unlikely it will be 100% as effective as Napier's version. It's a copy (Napier) of a copy (Saban / Dabo), and you lose stuff along the way.
The Cajuns will also have a new quarterback. Another significant change that can make or break a program. I don't think this should be understated. Having a talented player waiting in the wings is one thing, but the Cajuns haven't really played any backup QBs in any meaningful snaps, with one guy having 13 attempts all of last season.
Six players have transferred to P5 programs, five more have entered the portal. This is significant, especially at OL, where there is a new QB, and reduced depth at running back (the Cajuns lose two of their top three rushers). The Cajuns also lose their top two tacklers (top three linebackers).
The Cajuns were a talented team in 2021, but also had a lot of balls bounce their way. The Cajuns ranked second nationally in turnover margin at +15. This number is second in the SBC since 2009, behind only Georgia Southern in 2018 who had a ridiculous(!) +22 turnover margin. It's very rare for a team to get close to numbers like this two years in a row, and you should see a significant drop off in this area in 2022.
Teams with 3+ close wins usually lose close games the following season. The Cajuns had not just three, but seven wins that were one score games when the clock hit zero. With the turnover in staff, I expect they won't play with the same edge. Players will have to get used to different faces in different roles, some new, some old. This is not as easy as some believe, and with reduced turnover contribution, they will lose a few close games they wouldn't have in 2021.
Individually, these are problem areas that can be overcome during the offseason. But together, I suspect there is going to be less cohesiveness than Cajun fans expect, and a few things in a game here, a few things in a game there, will prevent them from having another double digit win season.