(01-14-2022 05:09 PM)JRsec Wrote: A. He's speaking of a possible Big Ten expansion. Why? Phillips has knowledge of B1G and ACC affairs. Right now, in terms of value and branding there is only 1 move which could bring stability within a SuperP2 / P2 setup. Notre Dame goes for the bucks to transition to pay for play. Kansas is the partner. FOX and the Big 10 get a close approximation to the SEC's additions with the top remaining football brand and a huge basketball brand. Should hoops break free of NCAA control Kansas more than doubles hoops value and jumps to 800 million in valuation for all sports. Texas was #1, Notre Dame #2, Oklahoma #3, and Kansas would become #4 in the realignment value pecking order in a hoops monetized world of non-Big 10 and non-SEC schools.
This would mean that the Big 12 has been tapped again. And Phillips and the ACC taps them again taking possibly West Virginia and Cincinnati, or Baylor and TCU, or all 4 if divisions are deregulated.
The ACC becomes more stable offering better matchups in a larger market.
The Big 10 and SEC agree to sit on 16.
The PAC 12 now has some decisions to make. Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Houston, and Brigham Young make a nice new 6 team division, if things are deregulated. Yes, I know the objections to B.Y.U. but they are competitive in money sports and fill stadiums. Houston and Tech cover DFW enough and add Houston as markets. And a whole new time zone adds time slots and more games to market.
Now you have a P4 of 68 schools. Now you get agreement to move to a 4+4+4 model for the CFP. The four conference champs draw a bye. The next 4 P schools are seeded and play the top 2 G5 programs and 2 more at large from the whole field. All 4 P4 schools get 2 in. The G5 get 2 in. And everyone has a shot at the last 2 slots.
Everyone gets something. The Big 10 and SEC share their pots with 2 less mouths each. The PAC 12 and ACC get incentivized with 2 berths each to spur interest. Everyone's best 2 are included. The top 2 G5 are included. And the Big 10 and SEC should feel fairly good about prospects for a #3.
One can hope Phillips has something like this in mind. And with ND the Big 10 should feel better about 3 and going head to head with the SEC.
B. Phillips knows his top ACC schools want a shot at SEC and B1G money and big division of the ACC will be at hand and as a B1G guy he's there to help broker it.
The SEC and Big 10 both move to 20 out of the ACC. The New Big 12 takes the remaining 5 plus Memphis. Then the PAC 12 takes 6 of the 18 member Big 12 and backfill comes again from the AAC and the B12 absorbs the best of the Mountain West and becomes the 4th P conference.
Now you have 2 18 member conferences (PAC 18 & Big 18) and two 20 member conferences (B1G and SEC) for a 76 member P4 and we move to a 4+4 model.
Four champs and Four at large. There is a complete divide between P and G conference championships.
Incredibly interesting remarks from Phillips. Here's my take and it's more of an amalgam rather than either/or:
1. He knows the ACC is in trouble. If the Supreme Court rules on player/employee status soon then a lot of things are going to blow up. In that world, most ACC members have more to gain by moving than by staying. Their perspective is then likely due to the wish of wanting the alignment to settle out before we bother deciding what the postseason looks like. The latter path allows for more efficient decision making even if CFP expansion still occurs, which I think it will.
2. He does intimately know what the Big Ten's plans are. They surely want Notre Dame, but if that was imminent then I think he would have been more concerned with making them happy. Expanding the CFP would have been Notre Dame's desire(regardless of any new realignment) and would have helped the ACC's chances even as their champion likely gets in pretty much every year. If he had a chance to make them happy and didn't then I think it boils down to a wash. Expanding the CFP didn't help or hurt their chances of keeping Notre Dame. I've theorized it before, but I think Notre Dame has little motivation at this time to abandon independence. They will eventually, but I think they will allow the picture to settle out before they make their final move.
3. The SEC is still hungry. There were rumors swirling of who they were talking to during this past season once Oklahoma and Texas decided to move. Some things just take time to shake out and college administrators often aren't in a hurry. Nonetheless, everyone from LA to Maine knew the world was changing. It probably took a little time for certain leaders to get on the same page. It also probably took a little time for certain power brokers to quiet down certain parties that might reveal specific plans. In other words, I think the SEC is still actively working towards acquiring certain schools. The 'who' and the 'when' are a little murky, but again, Phillips is in a position to know what his conference members want. I can't think of anyone with gravitas that would want to join the ACC at this point. That likely means the movement would be in the other direction.
4. I don't see the PAC having the ability to add anyone really worth having. If they add a bunch of middling parts then I think you could see USC abandon ship.
5. The Big 12 picking up some leftovers from the ACC makes sense. That assumes, however, that the SEC isn't capable of pulling down some shocking moves. We heard rumors about them talking to Ohio State and Michigan. I'm not convinced there wasn't some truth to that. No doubt the Big Ten is in a very good position overall, but their contract will expire soon and it would seemingly be easier for Big Ten schools to move sooner than later as opposed to ACC schools waiting on a court ruling, things that can be very hard to predict when it comes to their full scope and impact.
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ACC commish: Entirely likely more conference realignment happen before CFP expands
