(12-14-2021 11:16 AM)curtis0620 Wrote: youtubeTV would die if they drop these channels.
So, Not happening.
Absolutely correct. In this world of direct to consumer offerings, the only reason for bundled cable and cable-like services to exist is to deliver sports programming. ESPN is the absolute flagship of this space, not just for Disney but for the entire industry. Disney's own Hulu + Live TV, as well as Sling, Fubo and others, are standing ready to pick up YoutubeTV's fleeing customers the minute they drop ESPN.
(12-14-2021 11:30 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote: Something will eventually give. Disney always wants more while providing less and less. Do you still want to buy in to the Disney Ecosystem if it becomes the SEC ESPN funded NFL-Lite 20 team invitational?
Something does absolutely have to give, but Disney's not giving up on its cash cow any time soon. Domestic Linear Networks still provide over 25% of Disney's corporate revenues and over 20% of corporate operating income. ESPN represents the lion's share of both numbers.
Disney faces the obvious crisis that cable, satellite and over the top bundle subscribers are collectively declining. To date they have been successful at maintaining revenue levels through price increases and new offerings. ACCN and SECN have provided a meaningful offset to lost subscribers from other channels, for instance. However, while the margins remain high for ESPN and its family of channels, those margins are declining. There have been rumors of a sale or spin off of ESPN, but I'm not sure Disney's ready to hit that red button yet. The plan appears to be to navigate a soft landing for its linear offerings while transitioning sports to a direct to consumer model. In addition, Disney is readying an entry in to sports gambling, looking to leverage its brand and its ability to cross market.
What this means for consumers is that Disney is going to be ever aggressive to maintain the highest possible revenues from its declining cable business, e.g., by negotiating for higher carriage rates. It just completed a deal with Comcast, which clearly establishes a market rate for its bundle of channels. Disney will also be looking to cut costs. It laid off some on air talent a few years ago and is undoubtedly being more cautious in new deals with talent - for instance possibly contributing to the loss of Maria Taylor to NBC. It has negotiated a deal with MLB at a lower price than its prior deal (albeit with fewer games) and had the smallest increase in rights fees among networks in recent NFL negotiations. Finally, ESPN will be slowly transitioning programming traditionally aired on cable to ESPN+ and Hulu while slowly increasing the prices of those services.
Rest assured that sports programming remains extremely valuable and it will be shown somewhere that it can be accessed by fans. ESPN has extremely strong brand recognition, as well as the ability to distribute programming across multiple platforms - Over the Air, cable, and streaming. It will be with us in some form for a very long time.
