(10-10-2021 06:34 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  None of the candidates has great TV audience, they'd all be at or near the bottom of the AAC; it hardly matters if one has 300K fans per game and another 175K, it's too small to matter. Further none of these schools matches the AAC average budget, and some schools people here list are closer to half the budget size.

Given that reality these schools are back fill mostly. That favors airports and recruiting territories. Without a doubt FAU and UTSA win that. That Charlotte has traction says that ECU is too remote and rural to help with recruiting in NC. It also says that schools like App State and Marshall are not likely to be considered for that same reason. North Texas also fits, but hard to see them taken as SMU already covers DFW and north Texas. I agree that ODU and Charlotte fill the same niche. It's one or the other, not both, and ODU seems to be out of the picture.

My bet would be the American goes to 12 and the four they add are UAB, UTSA, FAU and Charlotte. But it could be they just go to 10 and it could be any two of these.

What the SBC does depends entirely upon what the American does first.

It's a shame JMU didn't move up to FBS in 2013-2014, we'd be a prime candidate for the AAC if so. FCS label is killing us even though we've got a lot of the qualities AAC would be looking for:
- 50M+ Budget
- DC Metro/Mid-Atlantic/NE is the main Fan/Alumni base (1.5 hrs away from Northern VA/DC area)
- 25K Stadium that is expandable to 40K+(21K/22K average attendance already in FCS)
- New 8,500 Basketball arena
- All around good athletic program (not just Football or Basketball)
- ESPN kinda likes us - 2 gamedays and WCWS run

(10-10-2021 05:14 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 01:12 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 12:35 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  . I can see the logic---but it seems counter intuitive to say that Charlotte, ODU, and UMass would be better options than AppSt, Marshall, and LaTech. Ultimately, its hard for me to buy completely into that theory. I think too many other factors (recruiting grounds, local competition, brand, facilities, etc) enter into that equation to rely simply on athletic budget as the "end all be all" invitation criteria.

Maybe the logic is from the POV of the current AAC schools.

You want recruiting grounds, and winnable games. So ODU and Charlotte make sense (although ECU is kinda right there....). Play in Norfolk and Charlotte, win the games, pick up recruits in VA and NC, maybe make the playoff. Vs bring in Marshall and App State, maybe lose the games, and there are not a lot of players to recruit in Boone NC and Huntington WV. ...

I'm not sure it's versus Marshall or App State ... it kind of seems like either ODU or Charlotte are satisfying one set of similar interests and failing to satisfy another set of similar interests, so they seem more like alternatives than a complementary pair.

I personally doubt that either one is in the picture if the AAC expands by two, but if they expand by four, with UAB, Rice/UTSA and (eg) Marshall/App State, I can see ODU as one of the schools coming into the frame when deciding on #12.

A lot will, of course, depend on advice from ESPN channeled to the AAC via a "media consultant", and we can guess what some of that advice might be, but the core advice of whether to expand to 10 or 12 FB schools is going to get into ESPN analysis that we are not privy to.

Charlotte--UTSA---ODU----None of those are going to draw any audience. For that matter---despite a more well known name---I doubt Rice will draw viewers. Im not even sure UAB has any real TV drawing power. None of those are likely going to help the AAC compete for an access bowl or playoff slot. Marshall---AppSt----I can see those names drawing a respectable audiences as they have existing reputations as scrappy giant killers. While neither really fit the institutional model for the AAC---they actually fit perfectly with the AAC's aspirational conference image. They are excellent examples of the Jet Blue vs United Airlines comparison that Aresco often makes when discussing the AAC's desire to compete as part of the P5. Marshall or AppSt are the kinds of programs that might actually help the AAC capture an access bowl slot.

Been advocating for cooperation for weeks, and having the faith as I do that good ideas eventually rise to the top, it's sweet to see this surface. Who knows if anything comes of it this time. Maybe it will take another go-round of realignment musical chairs to convince enough decision-makers that this poach-and-fill-in tendency is ridiculous. But/and the converse is also true, that the reasonableness of enacting some cooperative arrangement is potent.

https://csnbbs.com/thread-930043-post-17...id17656197

Can the B1G and SEC do this? The Big Ten East seems a little more lopsided.

Also the SEC West, what’s the deal there when Texas and Oklahoma come to town? Is it the SEC North/South now?

(10-10-2021 07:54 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 06:51 PM)seaking4steel Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 06:34 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  None of the candidates has great TV audience, they'd all be at or near the bottom of the AAC; it hardly matters if one has 300K fans per game and another 175K, it's too small to matter. Further none of these schools matches the AAC average budget, and some schools people here list are closer to half the budget size.

Given that reality these schools are back fill mostly. That favors airports and recruiting territories. Without a doubt FAU and UTSA win that. That Charlotte has traction says that ECU is too remote and rural to help with recruiting in NC. It also says that schools like App State and Marshall are not likely to be considered for that same reason. North Texas also fits, but hard to see them taken as SMU already covers DFW and north Texas. I agree that ODU and Charlotte fill the same niche. It's one or the other, not both, and ODU seems to be out of the picture.

My bet would be the American goes to 12 and the four they add are UAB, UTSA, FAU and Charlotte. But it could be they just go to 10 and it could be any two of these.

What the SBC does depends entirely upon what the American does first.

App State and Marshall got over 1 Million viewers on ESPN for a Thursday Night game (they were competing against the NFL for views too). App State and ECU got 36k in the stands in Charlotte on a Thursday night. Charlotte couldn't even sell out their small stadium when Duke came to town.

LO, it was on ESPN and the ONLY game. That's actually not a killer rating for Thursday night. Temple vs. South Florida would do that well. That weekend a bunch of games had between 3 and 6 million on Saturday.

How do they do on crowded Saturday? It's just not enough to matter at all.

If you think schools that average 23k+ in attendance like App State and Marshall won't matter, then just wait until nobody tunes in for Charlotte and UTSA.

(10-10-2021 09:39 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:  Can the B1G and SEC do this? The Big Ten East seems a little more lopsided.

Also the SEC West, what’s the deal there when Texas and Oklahoma come to town? Is it the SEC North/South now?

The SEC is pushing to do away with the 2-division format for their league. They are investigating the potential of a 4-quad pod system, but the scheduling logistics seem challenging for the NCAA.

(10-10-2021 10:22 PM)All4One Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 09:39 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:  Can the B1G and SEC do this? The Big Ten East seems a little more lopsided.

Also the SEC West, what’s the deal there when Texas and Oklahoma come to town? Is it the SEC North/South now?

The SEC is pushing to do away with the 2-division format for their league. They are investigating the potential of a 4-quad pod system, but the scheduling logistics seem challenging for the NCAA.

I dont know why. The NCAA would have literally nothing to do with it. It would all be handled at the conference level---just like all conference scheduling is.

(10-10-2021 10:22 PM)All4One Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 09:39 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:  Can the B1G and SEC do this? The Big Ten East seems a little more lopsided.

Also the SEC West, what’s the deal there when Texas and Oklahoma come to town? Is it the SEC North/South now?

The SEC is pushing to do away with the 2-division format for their league. They are investigating the potential of a 4-quad pod system, but the scheduling logistics seem challenging for the NCAA.

WAC.

(10-10-2021 09:42 PM)seaking4steel Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 07:54 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 06:51 PM)seaking4steel Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 06:34 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  None of the candidates has great TV audience, they'd all be at or near the bottom of the AAC; it hardly matters if one has 300K fans per game and another 175K, it's too small to matter. Further none of these schools matches the AAC average budget, and some schools people here list are closer to half the budget size.

Given that reality these schools are back fill mostly. That favors airports and recruiting territories. Without a doubt FAU and UTSA win that. That Charlotte has traction says that ECU is too remote and rural to help with recruiting in NC. It also says that schools like App State and Marshall are not likely to be considered for that same reason. North Texas also fits, but hard to see them taken as SMU already covers DFW and north Texas. I agree that ODU and Charlotte fill the same niche. It's one or the other, not both, and ODU seems to be out of the picture.

My bet would be the American goes to 12 and the four they add are UAB, UTSA, FAU and Charlotte. But it could be they just go to 10 and it could be any two of these.

What the SBC does depends entirely upon what the American does first.

App State and Marshall got over 1 Million viewers on ESPN for a Thursday Night game (they were competing against the NFL for views too). App State and ECU got 36k in the stands in Charlotte on a Thursday night. Charlotte couldn't even sell out their small stadium when Duke came to town.

LO, it was on ESPN and the ONLY game. That's actually not a killer rating for Thursday night. Temple vs. South Florida would do that well. That weekend a bunch of games had between 3 and 6 million on Saturday.

How do they do on crowded Saturday? It's just not enough to matter at all.

If you think schools that average 23k+ in attendance like App State and Marshall won't matter, then just wait until nobody tunes in for Charlotte and UTSA.

23k is not an impressive attendance number, at all. If you aren't averaging at least 30 don't even attempt to brag about it. ECU's attendance smack was ignored for years when we were averaging 45k+. I'm someone who thinks attendance does matter and should have always been considered an important judge of how many people actually are invested in your program, but if that number starts with a 2 then it's pretty meaningless. If there were someone consistently averaging 35-40k out there I wouldn't care if they were located in the actual middle of nowhere I'd be hyping them harder than anyone regardless of academics or basketball or anything else.

(10-11-2021 01:29 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 10:22 PM)All4One Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 09:39 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:  Can the B1G and SEC do this? The Big Ten East seems a little more lopsided.

Also the SEC West, what’s the deal there when Texas and Oklahoma come to town? Is it the SEC North/South now?

The SEC is pushing to do away with the 2-division format for their league. They are investigating the potential of a 4-quad pod system, but the scheduling logistics seem challenging for the NCAA.

I dont know why. The NCAA would have literally nothing to do with it. It would all be handled at the conference level---just like all conference scheduling is.

For the purpose of a conference championship game, the pod format would still need to be added to the bylaws but with only 3 conference games in the same pod, it seems to me that the NCAA would want to see more conference games on some kind of pod rotation. But that's just a guess.

(10-11-2021 04:40 AM)AuzGrams Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 10:22 PM)All4One Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 09:39 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:  Can the B1G and SEC do this? The Big Ten East seems a little more lopsided.

Also the SEC West, what’s the deal there when Texas and Oklahoma come to town? Is it the SEC North/South now?

The SEC is pushing to do away with the 2-division format for their league. They are investigating the potential of a 4-quad pod system, but the scheduling logistics seem challenging for the NCAA.

WAC.

Except the SEC has the money to make it work, and the conference footprint is much tighter than what the far-flung 16-team WAC had.

(10-11-2021 08:56 AM)All4One Wrote:  

(10-11-2021 04:40 AM)AuzGrams Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 10:22 PM)All4One Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 09:39 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:  Can the B1G and SEC do this? The Big Ten East seems a little more lopsided.

Also the SEC West, what’s the deal there when Texas and Oklahoma come to town? Is it the SEC North/South now?

The SEC is pushing to do away with the 2-division format for their league. They are investigating the potential of a 4-quad pod system, but the scheduling logistics seem challenging for the NCAA.

WAC.

Except the SEC has the money to make it work, and the conference footprint is much tighter than what the far-flung 16-team WAC had.

How are pods different than what the WAC did? You’d just be matching four with four. A conference could scramble its divisions up every season if they wanted.

(10-09-2021 04:50 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-09-2021 03:59 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(10-09-2021 03:29 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(10-09-2021 03:19 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  This makes complete sense for all the G5. Finally admitting that FBS conferences have become tiered…and the A5 will always be able to easily poach from any G5 conference. The MAC (in the Midwest) and Mountain West are already geographically aligned. The real need is to merge the AAC, C-USA and Sun Belt and gradually transition into three geographic-based “conferences”…with Eastern, Southern and Southwestern conferences. They could eventually negotiate media deals as one entity and even have marquee scheduling across geographies (similar to the Alliance of the ACC, B1G & PAC).

Long-term, a few schools could be asked to be flexible in changing geographic allegiance. For example, schools in Arkansas could be part of the Southwest or Southeast.

Conference commissioners will initially sound skeptical of this proposal. It will be the individual school presidents and athletic directors that will immediately understand the benefits. I could see Temple, ECU and USF putting a lot pressure on Aresco to fully vet this proposal before proposing any AAC specific expansion.

Lol

Today, the AAC may be able to take schools from C-USA or Sun Belt. Nevertheless, the AAC has bigger worries from the B12 (e.g., Memphis, SMU and/or USF could get promotions) or the Mountain West (e.g., encroachment into Texas). The future of the AAC looks very similar to C-USA’s past…the success of individual schools make them candidates for promotion, leaving the conference increasingly unstable. In an odd analogy, conference alignment seems more like British soccer leagues. The B12 stabilized by co-opting the AAC’s strategic plan.

So what? Even with this regional plan, the P5 will still be taking from the G5 at will so any stability at that level is an illusion. Furthermore, this doesn’t create stability by lifting everyone upward—-it creates stability by taking the top conference and splitting it up in such a dilutive way that all 3 conferences are now going to get $500K a school CUSA level deals.

The basic concept has some merit—-but the only way this type of thing works is if all the schools are currently getting very similar media payouts. Under that scenario—-swapping schools around has no financial repercussions beyond cutting travel expenses. But if one group is getting 7 million a team and another is getting 400K a team—-those swaps don’t make much sense to the higher earners.

Playing more regional rivals creates more fan interest and ticket sales. So more butts in seats over the entire season can be a nice financial bump at the end of the year.

(10-11-2021 09:19 AM)GreenBison Wrote:  

(10-09-2021 04:50 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-09-2021 03:59 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(10-09-2021 03:29 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(10-09-2021 03:19 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  This makes complete sense for all the G5. Finally admitting that FBS conferences have become tiered…and the A5 will always be able to easily poach from any G5 conference. The MAC (in the Midwest) and Mountain West are already geographically aligned. The real need is to merge the AAC, C-USA and Sun Belt and gradually transition into three geographic-based “conferences”…with Eastern, Southern and Southwestern conferences. They could eventually negotiate media deals as one entity and even have marquee scheduling across geographies (similar to the Alliance of the ACC, B1G & PAC).

Long-term, a few schools could be asked to be flexible in changing geographic allegiance. For example, schools in Arkansas could be part of the Southwest or Southeast.

Conference commissioners will initially sound skeptical of this proposal. It will be the individual school presidents and athletic directors that will immediately understand the benefits. I could see Temple, ECU and USF putting a lot pressure on Aresco to fully vet this proposal before proposing any AAC specific expansion.

Lol

Today, the AAC may be able to take schools from C-USA or Sun Belt. Nevertheless, the AAC has bigger worries from the B12 (e.g., Memphis, SMU and/or USF could get promotions) or the Mountain West (e.g., encroachment into Texas). The future of the AAC looks very similar to C-USA’s past…the success of individual schools make them candidates for promotion, leaving the conference increasingly unstable. In an odd analogy, conference alignment seems more like British soccer leagues. The B12 stabilized by co-opting the AAC’s strategic plan.

So what? Even with this regional plan, the P5 will still be taking from the G5 at will so any stability at that level is an illusion. Furthermore, this doesn’t create stability by lifting everyone upward—-it creates stability by taking the top conference and splitting it up in such a dilutive way that all 3 conferences are now going to get $500K a school CUSA level deals.

The basic concept has some merit—-but the only way this type of thing works is if all the schools are currently getting very similar media payouts. Under that scenario—-swapping schools around has no financial repercussions beyond cutting travel expenses. But if one group is getting 7 million a team and another is getting 400K a team—-those swaps don’t make much sense to the higher earners.

Playing more regional rivals creates more fan interest and ticket sales. So more butts in seats over the entire season can be a nice financial bump at the end of the year.

A lot of the Sun-Belt schools have been playing "regional rivals" for years and don't draw fans in any significant numbers. Playing exclusively regional schools is not going to turn schools who struggle to draw 20k into schools that draw 30-40k. You pretty much either have that fan base or you don't. The only "regional" opponent for ECU that would have any actual material impact on attendance is App. Not that it would draw more ECU fans than your average conference game but they'd probably bring 3k a year to Dowdy, but no one else is gonna do that.

(10-11-2021 08:52 AM)All4One Wrote:  

(10-11-2021 01:29 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 10:22 PM)All4One Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 09:39 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:  Can the B1G and SEC do this? The Big Ten East seems a little more lopsided.

Also the SEC West, what’s the deal there when Texas and Oklahoma come to town? Is it the SEC North/South now?

The SEC is pushing to do away with the 2-division format for their league. They are investigating the potential of a 4-quad pod system, but the scheduling logistics seem challenging for the NCAA.

I dont know why. The NCAA would have literally nothing to do with it. It would all be handled at the conference level---just like all conference scheduling is.

For the purpose of a conference championship game, the pod format would still need to be added to the bylaws but with only 3 conference games in the same pod, it seems to me that the NCAA would want to see more conference games on some kind of pod rotation. But that's just a guess.

Personally, I think CCG deregulation is probably coming (remember the AAC has a proposal on that), but if you use the same pod system as the WAC—you don’t need any NCAA changes. Basically, the WAC had 4 pods of 4 each. You played every team in your pod and every team in ONE other pod. The remaining two pods did the same thing. Thats effectively the same as playing in 2 8-team divisions. That’s seven games, leaving the 8th for a floating “playoff game”. If you want a nine game schedule, you’d play one game against a 3rd pod. In the WAC, the pods would rotate which pod they were paired with every couple of years so everyone would get to see every team in the conference in ones home stadium at least once every 6 years.

(10-10-2021 09:42 PM)seaking4steel Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 07:54 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 06:51 PM)seaking4steel Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 06:34 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  None of the candidates has great TV audience, they'd all be at or near the bottom of the AAC; it hardly matters if one has 300K fans per game and another 175K, it's too small to matter. Further none of these schools matches the AAC average budget, and some schools people here list are closer to half the budget size.

Given that reality these schools are back fill mostly. That favors airports and recruiting territories. Without a doubt FAU and UTSA win that. That Charlotte has traction says that ECU is too remote and rural to help with recruiting in NC. It also says that schools like App State and Marshall are not likely to be considered for that same reason. North Texas also fits, but hard to see them taken as SMU already covers DFW and north Texas. I agree that ODU and Charlotte fill the same niche. It's one or the other, not both, and ODU seems to be out of the picture.

My bet would be the American goes to 12 and the four they add are UAB, UTSA, FAU and Charlotte. But it could be they just go to 10 and it could be any two of these.

What the SBC does depends entirely upon what the American does first.

App State and Marshall got over 1 Million viewers on ESPN for a Thursday Night game (they were competing against the NFL for views too). App State and ECU got 36k in the stands in Charlotte on a Thursday night. Charlotte couldn't even sell out their small stadium when Duke came to town.

LO, it was on ESPN and the ONLY game. That's actually not a killer rating for Thursday night. Temple vs. South Florida would do that well. That weekend a bunch of games had between 3 and 6 million on Saturday.

How do they do on crowded Saturday? It's just not enough to matter at all.

If you think schools that average 23k+ in attendance like App State and Marshall won't matter, then just wait until nobody tunes in for Charlotte and UTSA.

It's the same "nobody" number for App State as for Charlotte though. That's the point. At that point, a micropenis is a micropenis, 3.5" isn't any different than 3". You need other selection criteria.

(10-10-2021 09:42 PM)seaking4steel Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 07:54 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 06:51 PM)seaking4steel Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 06:34 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  None of the candidates has great TV audience, they'd all be at or near the bottom of the AAC; it hardly matters if one has 300K fans per game and another 175K, it's too small to matter. Further none of these schools matches the AAC average budget, and some schools people here list are closer to half the budget size.

Given that reality these schools are back fill mostly. That favors airports and recruiting territories. Without a doubt FAU and UTSA win that. That Charlotte has traction says that ECU is too remote and rural to help with recruiting in NC. It also says that schools like App State and Marshall are not likely to be considered for that same reason. North Texas also fits, but hard to see them taken as SMU already covers DFW and north Texas. I agree that ODU and Charlotte fill the same niche. It's one or the other, not both, and ODU seems to be out of the picture.

My bet would be the American goes to 12 and the four they add are UAB, UTSA, FAU and Charlotte. But it could be they just go to 10 and it could be any two of these.

What the SBC does depends entirely upon what the American does first.

App State and Marshall got over 1 Million viewers on ESPN for a Thursday Night game (they were competing against the NFL for views too). App State and ECU got 36k in the stands in Charlotte on a Thursday night. Charlotte couldn't even sell out their small stadium when Duke came to town.

LO, it was on ESPN and the ONLY game. That's actually not a killer rating for Thursday night. Temple vs. South Florida would do that well. That weekend a bunch of games had between 3 and 6 million on Saturday.

How do they do on crowded Saturday? It's just not enough to matter at all.

If you think schools that average 23k+ in attendance like App State and Marshall won't matter, then just wait until nobody tunes in for Charlotte and UTSA.

UTSA drew like close to 30,000 when they play P5 schools.

(10-11-2021 08:58 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(10-11-2021 08:56 AM)All4One Wrote:  

(10-11-2021 04:40 AM)AuzGrams Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 10:22 PM)All4One Wrote:  

(10-10-2021 09:39 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:  Can the B1G and SEC do this? The Big Ten East seems a little more lopsided.

Also the SEC West, what’s the deal there when Texas and Oklahoma come to town? Is it the SEC North/South now?

The SEC is pushing to do away with the 2-division format for their league. They are investigating the potential of a 4-quad pod system, but the scheduling logistics seem challenging for the NCAA.

WAC.

Except the SEC has the money to make it work, and the conference footprint is much tighter than what the far-flung 16-team WAC had.

How are pods different than what the WAC did? You’d just be matching four with four. A conference could scramble its divisions up every season if they wanted.

The main difference is that the 16 team WAC wasn't generating the kind of money and success to quiet down complaints about losing rivalries. And the SEC went from 10 to 12 to 14 to 16 in 1992 to 2012 to 2025 or so, not from 9 to 16 from 1992 to 1996. You're not going to see an Airport Meeting of the old-line SEC schools who all of a sudden don't like what they've gotten into.

(10-11-2021 09:19 AM)GreenBison Wrote:  Playing more regional rivals creates more fan interest and ticket sales. So more butts in seats over the entire season can be a nice financial bump at the end of the year.

That's not really true at the G5 level, or Marshall wouldn't have left their bus-league buddies in the MAC.

(10-10-2021 08:38 PM)jmu18 Wrote:  It's a shame JMU didn't move up to FBS in 2013-2014, we'd be a prime candidate for the AAC if so. FCS label is killing us even though we've got a lot of the qualities AAC would be looking for:
- 50M+ Budget
- DC Metro/Mid-Atlantic/NE is the main Fan/Alumni base (1.5 hrs away from Northern VA/DC area)

I get the interest with northern Virginia but Harrisonburg is actually closer to Richmond than Washington.