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Regionalization concept to be presented Monday
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Comet Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Regionalization concept to be presented Monday
Yeah man, this is a hard pass.
10-09-2021 11:02 PM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Regionalization concept to be presented Monday
(10-09-2021 10:55 PM)Crayton Wrote:  There are certainly details we don't have yet. CUSA has just as much a chance asking for a reshuffling with the SEC as they do the AAC.

Here are some potential features of whatever plan Delaney has up his sleeve:
1) Drop exit fees when there exists an invitation to another of the 3 conferences
2) Arrange their football conferences separate from Olympic Sports (so that sport no longer "drives" realignment)
3) Shared negotiation with TV partners, at least for their football
4) Shared flex dates for BBall (ya, like CUSA and SB do now)

The questions remain:
1) HOW do you best arrange the football product, and
2) CAN you get current AAC schools the same or better revenue stream?

1. No one is going to forfeit exit fee money unless say a UTEP volunteered to leave a now hypothetical eastern tilting CUSA

2. That would be nice but the NCAA rules don't allow it

The AAC is simply going to take who they want and USM is likely to join the Sunbelt with an Eastern team
(This post was last modified: 10-09-2021 11:03 PM by solohawks.)
10-09-2021 11:02 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Regionalization concept to be presented Monday
(10-09-2021 11:02 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(10-09-2021 10:55 PM)Crayton Wrote:  There are certainly details we don't have yet. CUSA has just as much a chance asking for a reshuffling with the SEC as they do the AAC.

Here are some potential features of whatever plan Delaney has up his sleeve:
1) Drop exit fees when there exists an invitation to another of the 3 conferences
2) Arrange their football conferences separate from Olympic Sports (so that sport no longer "drives" realignment)
3) Shared negotiation with TV partners, at least for their football
4) Shared flex dates for BBall (ya, like CUSA and SB do now)

The questions remain:
1) HOW do you best arrange the football product, and
2) CAN you get current AAC schools the same or better revenue stream?

1. No one is going to forfeit exit fee money unless say a UTEP volunteered to leave a now hypothetical eastern tilting CUSA

2. That would be nice but the NCAA rules don't allow it

The AAC is simply going to take who they want and USM is likely to join the Sunbelt with an Eastern team

I am still trying to figure out what the NCAA holds over these conferences. Half a dozen "non-FBS conferences have FBS teams". Can't the AAC, CUSA, and SB simply become "non-FBS conferences with FBS teams"?

But, yes, no amount of hand-waving is going to convince me the AAC will do any sort of "Super League" with Conference USA and the Sun Belt. That be my (2), above, among questions that I don't think have good answers.
10-09-2021 11:19 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Regionalization concept to be presented Monday
(10-09-2021 11:19 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(10-09-2021 11:02 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(10-09-2021 10:55 PM)Crayton Wrote:  There are certainly details we don't have yet. CUSA has just as much a chance asking for a reshuffling with the SEC as they do the AAC.

Here are some potential features of whatever plan Delaney has up his sleeve:
1) Drop exit fees when there exists an invitation to another of the 3 conferences
2) Arrange their football conferences separate from Olympic Sports (so that sport no longer "drives" realignment)
3) Shared negotiation with TV partners, at least for their football
4) Shared flex dates for BBall (ya, like CUSA and SB do now)

The questions remain:
1) HOW do you best arrange the football product, and
2) CAN you get current AAC schools the same or better revenue stream?

1. No one is going to forfeit exit fee money unless say a UTEP volunteered to leave a now hypothetical eastern tilting CUSA

2. That would be nice but the NCAA rules don't allow it

The AAC is simply going to take who they want and USM is likely to join the Sunbelt with an Eastern team

I am still trying to figure out what the NCAA holds over these conferences. Half a dozen "non-FBS conferences have FBS teams". Can't the AAC, CUSA, and SB simply become "non-FBS conferences with FBS teams”?

Only FBS conferences get a cut of the CFP money. Everyone thinks there will be more money in the next CFP deal. There is no way any G conference will give up FBS status.
10-09-2021 11:26 PM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Regionalization concept to be presented Monday
(10-09-2021 11:19 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(10-09-2021 11:02 PM)solohawks Wrote:  
(10-09-2021 10:55 PM)Crayton Wrote:  There are certainly details we don't have yet. CUSA has just as much a chance asking for a reshuffling with the SEC as they do the AAC.

Here are some potential features of whatever plan Delaney has up his sleeve:
1) Drop exit fees when there exists an invitation to another of the 3 conferences
2) Arrange their football conferences separate from Olympic Sports (so that sport no longer "drives" realignment)
3) Shared negotiation with TV partners, at least for their football
4) Shared flex dates for BBall (ya, like CUSA and SB do now)

The questions remain:
1) HOW do you best arrange the football product, and
2) CAN you get current AAC schools the same or better revenue stream?

1. No one is going to forfeit exit fee money unless say a UTEP volunteered to leave a now hypothetical eastern tilting CUSA

2. That would be nice but the NCAA rules don't allow it

The AAC is simply going to take who they want and USM is likely to join the Sunbelt with an Eastern team

I am still trying to figure out what the NCAA holds over these conferences. Half a dozen "non-FBS conferences have FBS teams". Can't the AAC, CUSA, and SB simply become "non-FBS conferences with FBS teams"?

But, yes, no amount of hand-waving is going to convince me the AAC will do any sort of "Super League" with Conference USA and the Sun Belt. That be my (2), above, among questions that I don't think have good answers.

The AAC, CUSA, and SB could, but why would they?
10-09-2021 11:28 PM
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Post: #66
RE: Regionalization concept to be presented Monday
(10-09-2021 01:58 PM)jaybird44 Wrote:  So I would guess

EAST
UMass
Connecticut/some non football school
Temple
Marshall
Liberty
Old Dominion
Appalachian State
Charlotte
East Carolina
Georgia State
Georgia Southern
Coastal Carolina

CENTRAL
Florida International
South Florida
Troy
South Alabama
UAB
Middle Tennessee
Western Kentucky
Southern Miss
Louisiana Monroe
Memphis
Louisiana
Florida Atlantic

WEST
Louisiana Tech
Arkansas State
Tulane
Tulsa
Rice
UTSA
UTEP
North Texas
Texas State
New Mexico State
Navy/Wichita State
SMU

OMG Sign us up. AAC will never go for it
This would be great. 04-cheers
10-09-2021 11:28 PM
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seaking4steel Online
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Post: #67
RE: Regionalization concept to be presented Monday
"After failing to lure any Mountain West schools, sources said the AAC had set its sights East on some combination of UAB, North Texas, Texas State, UTSA, Appalachian State and perhaps others. There has also been buzz about Aresco going "big" and inviting up to eight schools to grow his conference to 16 teams."

The only realistic realignment related news this article mentions.
10-09-2021 11:51 PM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Regionalization concept to be presented Monday
(10-09-2021 01:58 PM)jaybird44 Wrote:  So I would guess

EAST
UMass
Connecticut/some non football school
Temple
Marshall
Liberty
Old Dominion
Appalachian State
Charlotte
East Carolina
Georgia State
Georgia Southern
Coastal Carolina

CENTRAL
Florida International
South Florida
Troy
South Alabama
UAB
Middle Tennessee
Western Kentucky
Southern Miss
Louisiana Monroe
Memphis
Louisiana
Florida Atlantic

WEST
Louisiana Tech
Arkansas State
Tulane
Tulsa
Rice
UTSA
UTEP
North Texas
Texas State
New Mexico State
Navy/Wichita State
SMU

OMG Sign us up. AAC will never go for it

Need to take this to its logical conclusion…

The above is a good division of programs when competing in non-revenue sports.

For football and basketball divisions, I’d use some metric such as 5-year average final Massey ratings to create the initial divisions. Then have promotion / relegation of the top / bottom two teams each year. Football’s media and CFP revenue gets allocated based on the tier (e.g., tier 1 football gets 150% of average distribution while tier 3 gets 50%).
10-10-2021 08:00 AM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #69
RE: Regionalization concept to be presented Monday
I believe that the people who put this proposal together know perfectly well that the AAC are not going to participate, so this proposal as it stands will certainly never go ahead.

That makes this proposal what you would call a stalking horse ... a horse without an expectation that it will win, but rather hoping to set an early pace that is good for another horse, to help that other horse win.

After the AAC does its raid, the schools remaining in the western conference is the start of a western reshuffle, the schools in the eastern conference the start of the eastern reshuffle, and the appeal of the plan depends on where they put the boundary in the middle of the middle conference, which can be subject to negotiation.

But having the three way set-up, then subtracting the AAC schools and the ones they take, there is more flexibility to negotiate a geographic reshuffle.

(10-09-2021 11:26 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Only FBS conferences get a cut of the CFP money. Everyone thinks there will be more money in the next CFP deal. There is no way any G conference will give up FBS status.

Yes, the roughly $60m part of the ~$90m above that is not the per-school amount is shared among "Non-contract FBS conferences", since the way they avoid anti-trust issues in the distinction between P5 and Go5 schools is by the formally independent business decision of the bowl committees who they want to have a contract with.

And the Access Bowl race is for the best non-Contract FBS champion.

So if any Go5 conference dropped FBS status they'd drop to the $300K per school during the current contract, wouldn't be in the Access Bowl race, and would not necessarily be at the negotiating table to be a signatory for the next CFP negotiations.

Also, you need 7 full members to be a multi-sport Division 1 conference anyway, so 8 full members to be an FBS conference is not all that far from the Division 1 minimum.

(10-09-2021 06:11 PM)All4One Wrote:  
(10-09-2021 01:39 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  My guess is Aresco will politely reject the offer and extend invites to schools in the AAC and/or Sun Belt.

There won't be many to choose from with the budget expectations of the AAC. Unless they are willing to make concessions.

This is a red herring. The AAC will choose the schools that they want. They will take the hard spending on FB and MBB into account, but if there is a school they otherwise want that they worry will not make a sufficient commitment, they'll negotiate on that rather than just rejecting that school outright.
(This post was last modified: 10-10-2021 02:32 PM by BruceMcF.)
10-10-2021 08:38 AM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #70
RE: Regionalization concept to be presented Monday
(10-09-2021 02:43 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  Why not test this with the SEC and ACC? The SEC gets Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, and Clemson. In exchange, the ACC gets Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Missouri (sorry Missouri, but Clemson + South Carolina in the same conference just makes sense geographically).

I highly doubt a regionalization of AAC + Sun Belt + C-USA ever happens, for the same reasons a regionalization of SEC + ACC will likely never happen.


This is an excellent idea, only taken too far.
The realistic trade between the ACC and the SEC should be:
Miami and Florida State for Kentucky and Tennessee.07-coffee3
10-10-2021 08:51 AM
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Post: #71
RE: Regionalization concept to be presented Monday
(10-09-2021 11:26 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Only FBS conferences get a cut of the CFP money. Everyone thinks there will be more money in the next CFP deal. There is no way any G conference will give up FBS status.

That's actually not true. Granted, it's not much, and it's a far cry from the $90 Million shared by the Gang of 5 conferences, but still....

Forbes Article

Quote:FCS

$2.7 million collective pool

FCS conferences that provide the full NCAA-allowable complement of scholarships receive a collective pool, which includes the Big Sky, Big South, Colonial, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, Southern, Southland, and SWAC.
10-10-2021 08:53 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #72
RE: Regionalization concept to be presented Monday
No way this happens. Respect the great totem pole of realignment.
10-10-2021 08:59 AM
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Post: #73
RE: Regionalization concept to be presented Monday
(10-09-2021 11:51 PM)seaking4steel Wrote:  "After failing to lure any Mountain West schools, sources said the AAC had set its sights East on some combination of UAB, North Texas, Texas State, UTSA, Appalachian State and perhaps others. There has also been buzz about Aresco going "big" and inviting up to eight schools to grow his conference to 16 teams."

The only realistic realignment related news this article mentions.

If that happens, there is a good chance C-USA goes the way of the WAC.
10-10-2021 09:07 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #74
RE: Regionalization concept to be presented Monday
This proposal, were it to yield "regional leagues" that make sense in terms of logistics and cost considerations ... could kill Memphis basketball. I've noted many times recently: The AAC still offers Memphis four quality (and all-time top 75 to 100) hoops programs: SMU, Tulsa, Wichita and Temple. Reduce that number to one or two with such realignment ... not acceptable for Memphis basketball.
10-10-2021 10:20 AM
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Post: #75
RE: Regionalization concept to be presented Monday
(10-10-2021 10:20 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  This proposal, were it to yield "regional leagues" that make sense in terms of logistics and cost considerations ... could kill Memphis basketball. I've noted many times recently: The AAC still offers Memphis four quality (and all-time top 75 to 100) hoops programs: SMU, Tulsa, Wichita and Temple. Reduce that number to one or two with such realignment ... not acceptable for Memphis basketball.

It doesn't work for the AAC with names like SMU, Tulane, Temple, USF that also were once part of the power club.

The similarity really is among CUSA and SBC especially those that will be left behind once the AAC is done taking teams.

Then a more regionalized CUSA and SBC could more effectively respond if the AAC does fall apart at some point and absorb the AAC.
10-10-2021 10:28 AM
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Post: #76
RE: Regionalization concept to be presented Monday
(10-10-2021 09:07 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  
(10-09-2021 11:51 PM)seaking4steel Wrote:  "After failing to lure any Mountain West schools, sources said the AAC had set its sights East on some combination of UAB, North Texas, Texas State, UTSA, Appalachian State and perhaps others. There has also been buzz about Aresco going "big" and inviting up to eight schools to grow his conference to 16 teams."

The only realistic realignment related news this article mentions.

If that happens, there is a good chance C-USA goes the way of the WAC.

...I think that the C-USA Texas teams are the focus of the AAC, before the MWC comes in and gets them... probable scenario is a 'split' of the TX teams by the AAC and MWC... but if that happens, along with 2-3 other C-USA teams to the AAC (UAB included hopefully 02-13-banana ), then C-USA is pretty gutted... this proposal looks great logistically, and it would be fine to me if it somehow comes to fruition, but I don't think the AAC or Belt will bite on it, as to me the BIG issue is, the AAC and Belt have solid MEDIA deals (ESPN)... C-USA has... some sort of 'Dollar General' type of arrangement as to media... 03-banghead I don't see a 'sharing the wealth' scenario being extended by the AAC or Belt to C-USA...
(This post was last modified: 10-10-2021 10:38 AM by GreenFreakUAB.)
10-10-2021 10:37 AM
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RE: Regionalization concept to be presented Monday
(10-10-2021 10:28 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(10-10-2021 10:20 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  This proposal, were it to yield "regional leagues" that make sense in terms of logistics and cost considerations ... could kill Memphis basketball. I've noted many times recently: The AAC still offers Memphis four quality (and all-time top 75 to 100) hoops programs: SMU, Tulsa, Wichita and Temple. Reduce that number to one or two with such realignment ... not acceptable for Memphis basketball.

It doesn't work for the AAC with names like SMU, Tulane, Temple, USF that also were once part of the power club.

The similarity really is among CUSA and SBC especially those that will be left behind once the AAC is done taking teams.

Then a more regionalized CUSA and SBC could more effectively respond if the AAC does fall apart at some point and absorb the AAC.

It doesn't work for the SBC either. SBC is 100% on ESPN, while C-USA is on...something else. Facebook I think? SBC has a higher TV contract payout than C-USA. SBC also has less members, meaning each school gets a larger cut of the conference earnings pie.

It's the same for SBC as it was for the Big 12 when rumors were floated about being absorbed by the AAC: Why combine with a lower conference if you can just pluck the best schools?

C-USA is proposing this because they know they're at the bottom of the pecking order now. The AAC + SBC are coming to take the best of what C-USA has to offer.
10-10-2021 10:47 AM
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Post: #78
RE: Regionalization concept to be presented Monday
(10-10-2021 10:47 AM)Yosef181 Wrote:  
(10-10-2021 10:28 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(10-10-2021 10:20 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  This proposal, were it to yield "regional leagues" that make sense in terms of logistics and cost considerations ... could kill Memphis basketball. I've noted many times recently: The AAC still offers Memphis four quality (and all-time top 75 to 100) hoops programs: SMU, Tulsa, Wichita and Temple. Reduce that number to one or two with such realignment ... not acceptable for Memphis basketball.

It doesn't work for the AAC with names like SMU, Tulane, Temple, USF that also were once part of the power club.

The similarity really is among CUSA and SBC especially those that will be left behind once the AAC is done taking teams.

Then a more regionalized CUSA and SBC could more effectively respond if the AAC does fall apart at some point and absorb the AAC.

It doesn't work for the SBC either. SBC is 100% on ESPN, while C-USA is on...something else. Facebook I think? SBC has a higher TV contract payout than C-USA. SBC also has less members, meaning each school gets a larger cut of the conference earnings pie.

It's the same for SBC as it was for the Big 12 when rumors were floated about being absorbed by the AAC: Why combine with a lower conference if you can just pluck the best schools?

C-USA is proposing this because they know they're at the bottom of the pecking order now. The AAC + SBC are coming to take the best of what C-USA has to offer.

I disagree because while the network is an impediment both the SBC and CUSA are primarily FCS call ups that landed into two different conferences.

They could reshuffle into 2 ESPN oriented conferences.
10-10-2021 10:50 AM
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Post: #79
RE: Regionalization concept to be presented Monday
(10-10-2021 10:47 AM)Yosef181 Wrote:  
(10-10-2021 10:28 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(10-10-2021 10:20 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  This proposal, were it to yield "regional leagues" that make sense in terms of logistics and cost considerations ... could kill Memphis basketball. I've noted many times recently: The AAC still offers Memphis four quality (and all-time top 75 to 100) hoops programs: SMU, Tulsa, Wichita and Temple. Reduce that number to one or two with such realignment ... not acceptable for Memphis basketball.

It doesn't work for the AAC with names like SMU, Tulane, Temple, USF that also were once part of the power club.

The similarity really is among CUSA and SBC especially those that will be left behind once the AAC is done taking teams.

Then a more regionalized CUSA and SBC could more effectively respond if the AAC does fall apart at some point and absorb the AAC.

It doesn't work for the SBC either. SBC is 100% on ESPN, while C-USA is on...something else. Facebook I think? SBC has a higher TV contract payout than C-USA. SBC also has less members, meaning each school gets a larger cut of the conference earnings pie.

It's the same for SBC as it was for the Big 12 when rumors were floated about being absorbed by the AAC: Why combine with a lower conference if you can just pluck the best schools?

C-USA is proposing this because they know they're at the bottom of the pecking order now. The AAC + SBC are coming to take the best of what C-USA has to offer.

According to the Knight Commission, the Sun Belt collectively spent $9 Million more in 2018/2019 than they gained in total conference revenue. Contrast to CUSA, who in that same year collectively generated $5 Million more in revenue than was spent.

This tells me that despite whatever you want to believe about TV revenue for football, Conference USA is still providing a profitable experience for most of its members that the Sun Belt isn't providing.

If a current CUSA school wants to lose money, then they should probably go to a conference where most of its members are losing money--the Sun Belt.

In fact, specifically. Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, and South Alabama all lost money that year.
(This post was last modified: 10-10-2021 11:07 AM by All4One.)
10-10-2021 10:58 AM
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RE: Regionalization concept to be presented Monday
(10-10-2021 08:38 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  I believe that the people who put this proposal together know perfectly well that the AAC are not going to participate, so this proposal as it stands will certainly never go ahead.

That makes this proposal what you would call a stalking horse ... a horse without an expectation that it will win, but rather hoping to set an early pace that is good for another horse, to help that other horse win.

After the AAC does its raid, the schools remaining in the western conference is the start of a western conference, the schools in the eastern conference the start of the eastern reshuffle, and the appeal of the plan depends on where they put the boundary in the middle of the middle conference.

But having the three way set-up, then subtracting the AAC schools and the ones they take, there is more flexibility to negotiate a geographic reshuffle.

(10-09-2021 11:26 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Only FBS conferences get a cut of the CFP money. Everyone thinks there will be more money in the next CFP deal. There is no way any G conference will give up FBS status.

Yes, the roughly $60m part of the ~$90m above that is not the per-school amount is shared among "Non-contract FBS conferences", since the way they avoid anti-trust issues in the distinction between P5 and Go5 schools is by the formally independent business decision of the bowl committees who they want to have a contract with.

And the Access Bowl race is for the best non-Contract FBS champion.

So if any Go5 conference dropped FBS status they'd drop to the $300K per school during the current contract, wouldn't be in the Access Bowl race, and would not necessarily be at the negotiating table to be a signatory for the next CFP negotiations.

Also, you need 7 full members to be a multi-sport Division 1 conference anyway, so 8 full members to be an FBS conference is not all that far from the Division 1 minimum.

(10-09-2021 06:11 PM)All4One Wrote:  
(10-09-2021 01:39 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  My guess is Aresco will politely reject the offer and extend invites to schools in the AAC and/or Sun Belt.

There won't be many to choose from with the budget expectations of the AAC. Unless they are willing to make concessions.

This is a red herring. The AAC will choose the schools that they want. They will take the hard spending on FB and MBB into account, but if there is a school they otherwise want that they worry will not make a sufficient commitment, they'll negotiate on that rather than just rejecting that school outright.

This is a great post. This “stalking horse” option does give those schools who receive the “golden ticket” invite to the AAC an option to consider before paying exit fees from C-USA/Sunbelt and entrance fees to the AAC. The questions these schools will work through are:

1. How long do schools like SMU, Memphis, Navy football/Wichita State basketball and USF stay in the AAC? Same question for any schools thinking about the MWC and Boise State, San Diego State, and others.

2. What will the new AAC media contract value be?

3. Is there an “institutional fit” for likely AAC lifers such as Temple, East Carolina, Tulane and Tulsa?

4. Do the finances work if I am flying my Olympic sports teams to Tulsa, Philadelphia, and Tampa?

This will be an interesting week.
10-10-2021 11:39 AM
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