quo vadis
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RE: Dodds: Big 12 commissioner alleges ESPN conspired with SEC/AAC to school from Big XII
(08-02-2021 03:48 PM)Jared7 Wrote: (08-02-2021 02:01 PM)quo vadis Wrote: Yes, TCU had *some* value in 2011. They had more value than Houston or my USF, which is why the Big 12 invited TCU instead of us. Yes, the L8 have some value, otherwise they would make nothing at all from media sans OK and OU, when they might make I don't know, $10 million each without them. That's something.
But the difference there is the difference between being a Power conference and not, which IMO is the critical distinction. The L8 are a good G5 conference in terms of value, probably displace the AAC as the top G5 conference. That's something.
But IMO they are no way shape or form a Power conference. Whereas Texas and OU, with any eight G5 they want to wrap around themselves, are a Power conference.
IMO, the L8 without Texas takes a massive pay cut and loses "power" status. Once the current deals expire, they won't have a deal with the Sugar Bowl for the L8 champ, their bowl roster gets reduced, if the CFP is renewed they aren't getting the big check the P5 get, they get a G5 check, stuff like that.
Texas without TCU and Texas Tech probably doesn't take any pay cut at all, or a trivial one. That's why I say TX (and OU) are responsible for the 2012 media deals.
Again, if they left IMO there's no way TCU and Texas Tech are held hostage to nine-figure buyouts and GOR or whatever is being discussed, you guys would be waved on your way with a nominal exit fee, the Big 12 would replace you with UCF and Houston or somebody like that, and wouldn't skip a bit.
Yes, this forum would discuss it, but the media discussion would not be revolving around the dominant themes - how can the Big 12 survive? What will be the fate of the leftbehinds now that the Big 12 will likely lose power status? Etc. That's what I meant by discussion. We'd discuss, but nobody would be saying the Big 12 was going to lose all their big TV deals, etc.
If anything, the discussion would revolve around the two that matter - as in, does TCU and TT leaving mean TX and OU might leave too? Because *that* would be a conference-shattering thing.
In contrast, when it comes to the L8, as the Iowa State AD said - "without TX and OU, we're the Mountain West". Or something like that.
Well, you've made a LOT of progress! You've backed off the ludicrous "ZERO" hyperbole, you've backed off the "not valuable" quackery, you've backed off the "warm body" belittling, you've backed off the Houston is the same as TCU nonsense, you've backed off the "won't even show up on a Forbes list" piffle and you've even backpedalled from the "this forum wouldn't even discuss [lowly] TCU" ridiculousness. Good job! You are now no longer merely repeating UT propaganda and have returned to the ranks of a reasonable human.
You haven't stopped using the cutesy little demeaning acronyms yet, but I suppose I'll let that go because everyone else seems determined to do it and you're certainly not alone.
As to your position now, time and performance will determine whether the Big 12 remains a power conference. In basketball, compared to, say, the Big East where our Hoyas live, the Big 12 is obviously a power conference, with the reigning NCAA champ, a true blueblood and the national runner-up from 3 years ago all still there. The Big 12, even with the loss of Texas's 1 hoops NCAA credit and OU's 2 credits, is one of the strongest in the country. The Big East is still considered a power conference; the Big 12 is stronger. The Big East has a stand-alone deal with Fox; the Big 12 can expect the same or better.
In football, it's not as strong, yet still better than last year's Pac 12. That makes it 4th best in 2020, which would still be considered a power conference, unless you now similarly plan to demean and belittle the Pac 12. (Maybe you should - there are really only 2 power conferences now). At worse, it's the 5th most powerful out of 10. And after the dust settles and the Big 12 expands (BYU? Cincy? USF? UCF? Houston?), it'll only get stronger. The AAC is currently #6 and it claims power status - why would #5 somehow be different?
Oh, you meant financially and brand - not actual power football performance, right? I keep forgetting that actual football performance means nothing. And Rose Bowl championships lose their relevance quickly in the case of teams you wish to denigrate. And AP finishes of #2 and #3 have a quick shelf-life. And 8 Top 10 finishes in the past 15 years aren't indicative of football power. Well, you might be right... All indications are that ESPN doesn't want to pay us much of anything. But there's no way shape or form that's there's no way shape or form that that can't be overcome. TCU did it in the MWC (going from $0 value to $38 million in just 17 years); we can do it in the remaining Big 12. Your present opinion notwithstanding.
Regarding basketball: Yes, no question, the L8 would be a Power hoops conference. But a Power hoops conference doesn't make you a "power" conference. The Big East is fully regarded as a Power hoops conference, and gets paid a whopping .... $4 million or so a year in media for that status. Basketball, sadly, just doesn't mean much when it comes to money. Nor does it give the Big East "autonomy" status either.
As for football performance, I don't think comparisons with last year's PAC are very relevant, as the PAC played such a pitifully short schedule. IIRC, they didn't even play their first game until November. I think PAC teams played between 4 and 6 games, total. Also, the Big 12 being compared to them included Oklahoma and Texas, and TX and OU are leaving. OU won an NY6 game over Florida last year, and IIRC Texas beat a PAC school in a bowl game as well. As mediocre as Texas has been the last 10 years, they have won five bowl games, TCU I think has won four. IMO, the L8 are likely to perform like a "tweener" on the field, a true tweener, not the fake tweener the AAC has been. Best of the "G" conferences.
As for brand value, Bowlsby himself said today that TX and OU were worth 50% of the TV value of the Big 12. The L8 were worth the other 50%. This is why I gave credit for Texas and not TCU for the big TV deals signed in 2012. IMO, the deals would have been the same had the Big 12 signed on Houston in 2012 instead of TCU. They were basically interchangeable - yes, TCU was worth a little more, that's why they got the nod, but final deal numbers would have been very similar. Absent TX and OU, the deal numbers would have been radically different.
Bottom line for me is that if TCU and say Texas Tech had left last week the conversations would IMO would be radically different. Nobody would be talking about the remainder as the Little 8. Nobody would be talking about the conference taking massive cuts to TV in 2025. Nobody would be talking about the Big 12 no longer being a Power conference - unless they were speculating that TX and OU might leave too. There would have been no commission quickly formed by the Lt. Governor to study the ramifications of TCU and Texas Tech leaving. There would be no study that says the remaining Texas cities, like Austin, might lose $300 million or whatever. Bob Bowlsby would not have been testifying before the legislature today about the devastating impact of the TCU and Texas Tech departures. And we would not be talking about the Big 12 wanting hundreds of millions in various kinds of exit fees and GOR payments from TT and TCU. They would IMO be let go with a wave and handshake and a nominal exit fee just to prove it exists.
Because despite having some value, to me TT and TCU are to me functionally irrelevant to the conference. If they left the Big 12 but TX and OU remained, the Big 12 could replace them easily and carry on as before. Within like 24 hours, Cincy and Houston would be added, and that would be that. If TT and TCU left, there'd be no question of any loss of conference money, status, place in the CFP hierarchy, any of that.
Hey, as I've said, I have been wrong before. Maybe once the L8 are on their own, they will prove me wrong again. Heck, maybe they will prove me wrong much sooner, as I've predicted none will get invitations from the PAC, ACC or B1G, because none bring enough value to merit it.
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2021 08:52 PM by quo vadis.)
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