No one is going to join a sinking ship. And it won't be certain that the ship is sinking until all of the players have spoken.

*** SMUstang ***

History says otherwise. That’s why most of the time the ship doesn’t sink after taking a realignment hit.

**insert "it's free real estate" meme as counterpoint**

(07-28-2021 11:28 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  History says otherwise. That’s why most of the time the ship doesn’t sink after taking a realignment hit.

It did in the case of the SWC, the Big East, the WAC, etc.

*** SMUstang ***

Who are you trying to convince?

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

(07-28-2021 11:32 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 11:28 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  History says otherwise. That’s why most of the time the ship doesn’t sink after taking a realignment hit.

It did in the case of the SWC, the Big East, the WAC, etc.

The Big East and WAC still exist. Heck, the Big East (now formally known as the AAC) still plays FBS football! Just at the G5 level now instead of BCS.

(07-28-2021 11:34 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 11:32 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 11:28 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  History says otherwise. That’s why most of the time the ship doesn’t sink after taking a realignment hit.

It did in the case of the SWC, the Big East, the WAC, etc.

The Big East and WAC still exist. Heck, the Big East (now formally known as the AAC) still plays FBS football! Just at the G5 level now instead of BCS.

Yes but where are West Virginia, Pittsburg, Syracuse, Rutgers, Louisville, and Connecticut playing now? Not in the AAC. Not to mention Boston College, Florida State, Miami, or Virginia Tech who the ACC poached because of the Big East's poor media rights deal and lack of foresight, before any of the AAC schools were considered.

*** SMUstang ***

(07-28-2021 11:32 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 11:28 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  History says otherwise. That’s why most of the time the ship doesn’t sink after taking a realignment hit.

It did in the case of the SWC, the Big East, the WAC, etc.

*** SMUstang ***

You do know that your school plays in the conference that used to be known as the Big East right?

(07-28-2021 11:38 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 11:34 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 11:32 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 11:28 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  History says otherwise. That’s why most of the time the ship doesn’t sink after taking a realignment hit.

It did in the case of the SWC, the Big East, the WAC, etc.

The Big East and WAC still exist. Heck, the Big East (now formally known as the AAC) still plays FBS football! Just at the G5 level now instead of BCS.

Yes but where are West Virginia, Pittsburg, Syracuse, Rutgers, Louisville, Connecticut now? Not in the AAC.

*** SMUstang ***

Yet SMU and many others joined while they were leaving. Not sure what your point is here.

People love saying that "**** always flows downhill" and use that to state definitively that the Big XII won't break up, that they'll instead use their slightly higher power to poach the MWC and AAC. But as you point out, people love to forget the WAC and the SWC. Conference dissolution does happen, and we've had a couple of high-profile situations in the modern CFB era where it's happened. The Big East->AAC situation where the AAC was able to add whoever it wanted from C-USA isn't necessarily applicable to the current Big XII scenario.

Right now, there's too much uncertainty, at least in terms of the information that we have publicly. Also, there's a real advantage for some members of the Big XII if it dissolves. Let's say a flank of schools wants to join the Pac-12. Those schools probably want exit fees from Oklahoma and Texas, but they'd rather the Big XII dissolve after that point so that they can join the Pac-12 without paying any exit fees. The top schools in the Big XII that have a realistic shot of finding a life raft may vote *against* expansion for that reason.

The SWC was the only one to collapse outright and so is an anomaly. Every member of the SWC had a destination conference lined up. There was no reason to keep the SWC alive at that point. The Big East survived in a diminished capacity but as an FBS conference. The Big West and WAC both dropped football but carried on as non-FB conferences. The Big 12 is likely to follow the Big East/AAC model and keep on ticking, especially considering it hasn't yet lost its autonomous status.

Schools always jump to a bigger sinking ship, Happened with BE and American came from the ashes. This time will be no different.

(07-28-2021 11:57 AM)Eichorst Wrote:  People love saying that "**** always flows downhill" and use that to state definitively that the Big XII won't break up, that they'll instead use their slightly higher power to poach the MWC and AAC. But as you point out, people love to forget the WAC and the SWC. Conference dissolution does happen, and we've had a couple of high-profile situations in the modern CFB era where it's happened. The Big East->AAC situation where the AAC was able to add whoever it wanted from C-USA isn't necessarily applicable to the current Big XII scenario.

Right now, there's too much uncertainty, at least in terms of the information that we have publicly. Also, there's a real advantage for some members of the Big XII if it dissolves. Let's say a flank of schools wants to join the Pac-12. Those schools probably want exit fees from Oklahoma and Texas, but they'd rather the Big XII dissolve after that point so that they can join the Pac-12 without paying any exit fees. The top schools in the Big XII that have a realistic shot of finding a life raft may vote *against* expansion for that reason.

This very much like the AAC and MWC scenarios. Lost their top programs to better conferences and downgraded in prestige and value; amidst great uncertainty, still back-filled from the next-tier conferences and took their place in the hierarchy.

Are there any of the Big 12 leftovers that are worth the $35M+ per year that it would take to attract the PAC 12?

The PAC 12 will take a long look at expansion candidates, but the PAC 12's next move is a formal scheduling agreement with the B1G....not expansion.

(07-28-2021 11:28 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  History says otherwise. That’s why most of the time the ship doesn’t sink after taking a realignment hit.

See Big East (now AAC).

(07-28-2021 12:44 PM)bullet Wrote:  [quote='Attackcoog' pid='17523598' dateline='1627489734']
History says otherwise. That’s why most of the time the ship doesn’t sink after taking a realignment hit.

See Big East (now AAC).
[/quote

In the AAC only three Big East teams remain. Cincinnati, South Florida, and Temple. The rest backfilled from elsewhere.

*** SMUstang ***

(07-28-2021 01:05 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 12:44 PM)bullet Wrote:  [quote='Attackcoog' pid='17523598' dateline='1627489734']
History says otherwise. That’s why most of the time the ship doesn’t sink after taking a realignment hit.

See Big East (now AAC).
[/quote

In the AAC only three Big East teams remain. Cincinnati, South Florida, and Temple. The rest backfilled from elsewhere.

*** SMUstang ***

Which shows that schools DO in fact join a sinking ship.

(07-28-2021 01:18 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 01:05 PM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 12:44 PM)bullet Wrote:  [quote='Attackcoog' pid='17523598' dateline='1627489734']
History says otherwise. That’s why most of the time the ship doesn’t sink after taking a realignment hit.

See Big East (now AAC).
[/quote

In the AAC only three Big East teams remain. Cincinnati, South Florida, and Temple. The rest backfilled from elsewhere.

*** SMUstang ***

Which shows that schools DO in fact join a sinking ship.

When SMU, TCU, UCF, Houston, and Memphis joined, the Big East still had BCS status. After that it became the AAC and was no longer a sinking ship.

*** SMUstang ***

This isn't true. CUSA exists.

(07-28-2021 01:46 PM)Crump1 Wrote:  This isn't true. CUSA exists.

An arguably better example. At this point I can't even keep up with how many teams have joined and left C-USA, and it never had "BCS status" or "autonomy" but teams have continued to join anyway. C-USA may have finally reached the point with their TV revenue that no FBS team in a conference would join then if they got raided again, but still got all of FCS plus Liberty/NMSU who would join tomorrow.

(07-28-2021 11:38 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 11:34 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 11:32 AM)SMUstang Wrote:  

(07-28-2021 11:28 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  History says otherwise. That’s why most of the time the ship doesn’t sink after taking a realignment hit.

It did in the case of the SWC, the Big East, the WAC, etc.

The Big East and WAC still exist. Heck, the Big East (now formally known as the AAC) still plays FBS football! Just at the G5 level now instead of BCS.

Yes but where are West Virginia, Pittsburg, Syracuse, Rutgers, Louisville, and Connecticut playing now? Not in the AAC. Not to mention Boston College, Florida State, Miami, or Virginia Tech who the ACC poached because of the Big East's poor media rights deal and lack of foresight, before any of the AAC schools were considered.

*** SMUstang ***

You literally just disproved your own OP. The reason those original schools are not there is because they left and others replaced them on “the sinking ship”——which prevented the ship from sinking.