So, What Exactly Would It Take To Make The ACC Competitive In Revenue?
Let's begin with an interesting correlation. I know they are only estimates of intrinsic worth based on support, regional merchandise sales, and the impacts made upon hotels, restaurants, and other aspects of schools economic impact upon their regions but the Wall Street Journal Valuations have an interesting rough but not quite exact correlation to media revenue. Roughly 1 billion in WSJ valuation translates to 10 million in media revenue.
The SEC's Value was 7.5 billion their new contract will translate in 2024-5 into roughly 70 million.
The Big 10's Value is at 5.4 billion and their most recently reported media distribution was in the 55 million range.
The PAC 12's Value was 3.0 billion and they last earned right at 32 million.
The ACC's Value was 2.2 billion but roughly half of Notre Dame's is 460 million so that translates into 27 million for the last reported income which will be highe after this year and likely more in the 32 million range. Anyway you get the point in this inexact but interesting correlation.
First there aren't enough potential valuable targets for the ACC to catch the SEC, but hypothetically they could catch the Big 10, but it would take some kind of super deal with moving parts all nursed by ESPN to make it happen.
How do you raise the 2.2 billion dollar conference value to levels equal to or exceeding the Big 10?
The answer is you have to attract Texas, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame all in.
Texas alone has a value of 1.1 billion.
Notre Dame's value is .913 billion.
Oklahoma's is .885 billion.
Together that's roughly 2.9 billion.
Add all 3 in full to the ACC and you have a 5.1 billion dollar value.
Drop your lowest 3 valued schools and you only lose combined 225 million. (Duke, B.C., Wake Forest).
Now add Oklahoma State and Texas Tech 515 million. You now have a valuation of 5.39 billion which is a virtual tie with the Big 10. And you are at 16 members. And nobody leaves. If Texas refuses to move without more Texas schools you take Baylor and Kansas State (another 382 million) and stop at 18 in 3 divisions of 6.
Now keep in mind that even in the 16 team iteration of this plan the payout would be right at 54 million per school. Texas made 55 last year.
Notre Dame wants independence.
Oklahoma wants a solid football conference with good academics.
So the least valuable of the 3 is the only one you have a chance to land and they wouldn't come alone.
But this should put things into perspective.
It doesn't come as a surprise but the task before Phillips is monumental, though theoretically possible, and I'd say a bit more possible at 18 than 16, and without asking Duke, Wake Forest and B.C. to leave the task is a lot tougher. I think to attract Texas you would need to add a Big 12 division of 6 schools. To accomplish this you need to place 3 schools elsewhere in the ESPN family. But who has more value elsewhere than in the ACC? Basketball schools from North Carolina and Virginia would have market and hoops value to the SEC.
That might solve any internal power struggles for the ACC as well. Your new leaders would be Notre Dame, Texas, Oklahoma, Clemson, and Florida State.
Perhaps an ACC that looks like this could best rival both the Big 10 and SEC?
OBE Division: Boston College, Louisville, Miami, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
OB12 Division: Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
OACC Division: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
The SEC picks up Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and Kansas.
East: Duke, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia
Central: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
West: Arkansas, Louisiana State, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Texas A&M
The SEC gets pro rata for the 4 additions.
The ACC gets 62 million per school.
Why? North Carolina, Duke, Virginia and Kansas need solid football revenue to remain at the top of the heap in recruiting nationwide in hoops. The SEC has plenty of football value. They get their money and the SEC accepts this face value.
The ACC finally becomes a premier football conference and is paid accordingly.
It all stays under ESPN.
(This post was last modified: 05-17-2021 01:17 PM by JRsec.)
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