.

If the networks have anything to say about, the P5 conferences may be unlikely to add more than one or two non-P5 schools as future members.

Why?

The answer is simple: $$$

.

At a cost of $25 to $50 million per school/per year, the networks aren't going to be able to generate enough additional revenue to add more than a few more non-P5 programs, at most, to the P5 conferences.

.

However, this doesn't imply that the networks fail to recognize the potential for additional viewership revenue from the non-P5 FBS schools.

The fact that the sports broadcasting networks have doubled or tripled their investments in the AAC and MWC is a strong indication that they view these conferences as fertile ground for future viewership growth.

They can get a lot more "bang for their buck" by investing in the development of the non-P5 conferences, as compared with making larger investments in the P5 conferences.

.

The quality and viewership gap between the P5 and non-P5 FBS programs has not grown since the P5-G5 split in 2013. To the contrary, the gap has begun to become somewhat less evident, as the number of non-P5 top 25 teams has increased over the past 4-5 seasons.

The trend appears to be continuing during the 2020 season, with respect to the gradual increase in the number of non-P5 teams in the AP Top 25 (e.g., Cincinnati, BYU, Boise State, Marshall, Memphis) and the fact that a greater number of games between non-P5 teams have been able to generate viewership of 1+ million, for example, these games through Week 7 of the 2020 season:

SMU-TEX ST 1.23 M
BYU-NAVY 1.15 M
ARK ST-MEMPHIS 1.03 M
EKU-MARSHALL 0.980 M
NAVY-TULANE 1.35 M
APP ST-MARSHALL 1.25 M
ARMY-CIN 1.08 M
UCF-ECU 0.998 M
UCF-MEMPHIS 1.90M
BYU-HOU 1.16M



https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college...v-ratings/

I always thought that 14 was the max in the number of teams in a P5 conference. It also doesn't help there's no slam dunk school to invite. The only conferences that have room is the Big 12 and PAC 12. The problem with the Big 12 is they would have to invite 4 teams (5 if for some reason they think West Virginia is to much of a traveling hassle) Anyone they add will devalue the contract and offer nothing more than quantity of games in the contract. The Big 12 would have been better to add 2 teams a few years ago and try to build them up as a contender.

For the Big 12 where would they expand to? Do they try with Louisiana Tech this would get game in Louisiana every other year but is really not a great pick team wise but it could get views if Texas and Oklahoma visited. Does the conference need a third team in Oklahoma with Tulsa? Arguably a better choice than Louisiana Tech and the Big 12 would be the college conference in town. Do the try to re-enter Colorado with state? Maybe try to use state to eventually try to look into getting colorado back?

The PAC 12 has less choice then the Big 12. Most of the big markets they have. Hawaii sports are not a good for the PAC 12 but would the 13th game and the week 0 schedule flexibility be worth it for the conference? Having a late game on espn be worth it? Could the Rainbow classic be put on the PAC 12 network and be used to get extra games on the PAC 12 network? The big question is who is the number 12? Does the conference go with San Diego State or go with Boise state for football? I honestly think San Diego State is a better choice football and basketball wise.

(10-25-2020 01:59 PM)46566 Wrote:  I always thought that 14 was the max in the number of teams in a P5 conference. It also doesn't help there's no slam dunk school to invite. The only conferences that have room is the Big 12 and PAC 12. The problem with the Big 12 is they would have to invite 4 teams (5 if for some reason they think West Virginia is to much of a traveling hassle) Anyone they add will devalue the contract and offer nothing more than quantity of games in the contract. The Big 12 would have been better to add 2 teams a few years ago and try to build them up as a contender.

For the Big 12 where would they expand to? Do they try with Louisiana Tech this would get game in Louisiana every other year but is really not a great pick team wise but it could get views if Texas and Oklahoma visited. Does the conference need a third team in Oklahoma with Tulsa? Arguably a better choice than Louisiana Tech and the Big 12 would be the college conference in town. Do the try to re-enter Colorado with state? Maybe try to use state to eventually try to look into getting colorado back?

The PAC 12 has less choice then the Big 12. Most of the big markets they have. Hawaii sports are not a good for the PAC 12 but would the 13th game and the week 0 schedule flexibility be worth it for the conference? Having a late game on espn be worth it? Could the Rainbow classic be put on the PAC 12 network and be used to get extra games on the PAC 12 network? The big question is who is the number 12? Does the conference go with San Diego State or go with Boise state for football? I honestly think San Diego State is a better choice football and basketball wise.

UNLV with its new stadium and Thomas and Mack would be considered as well, since SDSU doesn't bring another state in and Boise State is still in Idaho.

(10-25-2020 02:31 PM)whittx Wrote:  

(10-25-2020 01:59 PM)46566 Wrote:  I always thought that 14 was the max in the number of teams in a P5 conference. It also doesn't help there's no slam dunk school to invite. The only conferences that have room is the Big 12 and PAC 12. The problem with the Big 12 is they would have to invite 4 teams (5 if for some reason they think West Virginia is to much of a traveling hassle) Anyone they add will devalue the contract and offer nothing more than quantity of games in the contract. The Big 12 would have been better to add 2 teams a few years ago and try to build them up as a contender.

For the Big 12 where would they expand to? Do they try with Louisiana Tech this would get game in Louisiana every other year but is really not a great pick team wise but it could get views if Texas and Oklahoma visited. Does the conference need a third team in Oklahoma with Tulsa? Arguably a better choice than Louisiana Tech and the Big 12 would be the college conference in town. Do the try to re-enter Colorado with state? Maybe try to use state to eventually try to look into getting colorado back?

The PAC 12 has less choice then the Big 12. Most of the big markets they have. Hawaii sports are not a good for the PAC 12 but would the 13th game and the week 0 schedule flexibility be worth it for the conference? Having a late game on espn be worth it? Could the Rainbow classic be put on the PAC 12 network and be used to get extra games on the PAC 12 network? The big question is who is the number 12? Does the conference go with San Diego State or go with Boise state for football? I honestly think San Diego State is a better choice football and basketball wise.

UNLV with its new stadium and Thomas and Mack would be considered as well, since SDSU doesn't bring another state in and Boise State is still in Idaho.

Boise State does draw nationally then Idaho which is why Idaho is in the FCS.

(10-25-2020 02:31 PM)whittx Wrote:  

(10-25-2020 01:59 PM)46566 Wrote:  I always thought that 14 was the max in the number of teams in a P5 conference. It also doesn't help there's no slam dunk school to invite. The only conferences that have room is the Big 12 and PAC 12. The problem with the Big 12 is they would have to invite 4 teams (5 if for some reason they think West Virginia is to much of a traveling hassle) Anyone they add will devalue the contract and offer nothing more than quantity of games in the contract. The Big 12 would have been better to add 2 teams a few years ago and try to build them up as a contender.

For the Big 12 where would they expand to? Do they try with Louisiana Tech this would get game in Louisiana every other year but is really not a great pick team wise but it could get views if Texas and Oklahoma visited. Does the conference need a third team in Oklahoma with Tulsa? Arguably a better choice than Louisiana Tech and the Big 12 would be the college conference in town. Do the try to re-enter Colorado with state? Maybe try to use state to eventually try to look into getting colorado back?

The PAC 12 has less choice then the Big 12. Most of the big markets they have. Hawaii sports are not a good for the PAC 12 but would the 13th game and the week 0 schedule flexibility be worth it for the conference? Having a late game on espn be worth it? Could the Rainbow classic be put on the PAC 12 network and be used to get extra games on the PAC 12 network? The big question is who is the number 12? Does the conference go with San Diego State or go with Boise state for football? I honestly think San Diego State is a better choice football and basketball wise.

UNLV with its new stadium and Thomas and Mack would be considered as well, since SDSU doesn't bring another state in and Boise State is still in Idaho.

If the Pac 12 felt the urge to expand (not that I think they will), one of the teams would be Houston. Odds are the 2nd team would be SMU, but UNLV is a possibility.

(10-25-2020 03:42 PM)bullet Wrote:  If the Pac 12 felt the urge to expand (not that I think they will), one of the teams would be Houston. Odds are the 2nd team would be SMU, but UNLV is a possibility.

SMU??? How does Ford Stadium compare to that dome in Las Vegas?

The only Texas school the Pac-12 is interested in wears burnt orange.

Update:

10 of the top 30 FB teams in the AP Top 25 rankings are from non-P5 programs.

(10-25-2020 03:57 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(10-25-2020 03:42 PM)bullet Wrote:  If the Pac 12 felt the urge to expand (not that I think they will), one of the teams would be Houston. Odds are the 2nd team would be SMU, but UNLV is a possibility.

SMU??? How does Ford Stadium compare to that dome in Las Vegas?

The only Texas school the Pac-12 is interested in wears burnt orange.

SMU has the largest budget in the G5 after UConn and BYU. They have a lot of money behind them. They were part of the "club" and are a very good university. They are good at a lot of the non-rev sports, so they make a match for the Pac 12. UNLV is viewed as a bit of a commuter school. They have never been in the club. Much of their time, they were in the standing room only seats (when in Big West).

Also SMU is in the 4th largest metro in the country. Las Vegas is #28.

(10-25-2020 01:59 PM)46566 Wrote:  I always thought that 14 was the max in the number of teams in a P5 conference. It also doesn't help there's no slam dunk school to invite. The only conferences that have room is the Big 12 and PAC 12. The problem with the Big 12 is they would have to invite 4 teams (5 if for some reason they think West Virginia is to much of a traveling hassle) Anyone they add will devalue the contract and offer nothing more than quantity of games in the contract. The Big 12 would have been better to add 2 teams a few years ago and try to build them up as a contender.

For the Big 12 where would they expand to? Do they try with Louisiana Tech this would get game in Louisiana every other year but is really not a great pick team wise but it could get views if Texas and Oklahoma visited. Does the conference need a third team in Oklahoma with Tulsa? Arguably a better choice than Louisiana Tech and the Big 12 would be the college conference in town. Do the try to re-enter Colorado with state? Maybe try to use state to eventually try to look into getting colorado back?

The PAC 12 has less choice then the Big 12. Most of the big markets they have. Hawaii sports are not a good for the PAC 12 but would the 13th game and the week 0 schedule flexibility be worth it for the conference? Having a late game on espn be worth it? Could the Rainbow classic be put on the PAC 12 network and be used to get extra games on the PAC 12 network? The big question is who is the number 12? Does the conference go with San Diego State or go with Boise state for football? I honestly think San Diego State is a better choice football and basketball wise.

Big 12 Options:
Tulane
Memphis
Cincy
UCF
USF
Colorado State
Air Force
BYU
Boise State
New Mexico (if they could ever get a decent program going they would be a target)

Of those it just depends how many they want to add and whether they go East/west or both.

PAC-12 Options:
BYU
Boise State
UNLV
UNR
Hawaii
SDSU

Frankly, I don’t think the PAC-12 needs to expand. They just need to focus on their footprint. West is growing and they are the only game in town. They have a lean conference model and a lot of parity. They will be fine.

(10-25-2020 02:31 PM)whittx Wrote:  

(10-25-2020 01:59 PM)46566 Wrote:  I always thought that 14 was the max in the number of teams in a P5 conference. It also doesn't help there's no slam dunk school to invite. The only conferences that have room is the Big 12 and PAC 12. The problem with the Big 12 is they would have to invite 4 teams (5 if for some reason they think West Virginia is to much of a traveling hassle) Anyone they add will devalue the contract and offer nothing more than quantity of games in the contract. The Big 12 would have been better to add 2 teams a few years ago and try to build them up as a contender.

For the Big 12 where would they expand to? Do they try with Louisiana Tech this would get game in Louisiana every other year but is really not a great pick team wise but it could get views if Texas and Oklahoma visited. Does the conference need a third team in Oklahoma with Tulsa? Arguably a better choice than Louisiana Tech and the Big 12 would be the college conference in town. Do the try to re-enter Colorado with state? Maybe try to use state to eventually try to look into getting colorado back?

The PAC 12 has less choice then the Big 12. Most of the big markets they have. Hawaii sports are not a good for the PAC 12 but would the 13th game and the week 0 schedule flexibility be worth it for the conference? Having a late game on espn be worth it? Could the Rainbow classic be put on the PAC 12 network and be used to get extra games on the PAC 12 network? The big question is who is the number 12? Does the conference go with San Diego State or go with Boise state for football? I honestly think San Diego State is a better choice football and basketball wise.

UNLV with its new stadium and Thomas and Mack would be considered as well, since SDSU doesn't bring another state in and Boise State is still in Idaho.

I'd figure Nevada is already covered with being surrounded by PAC 12 states. In my mind Hawaii would get Boise States spot in the PAC 12 north. While I admit Boise State is the better choice brand wise to think that the schedule flexibility hawaii brings outweigh t Boises strength. San Diego State was a option to the south that already goes to Utah, Arizona, Colorado and LA.

What about taking both Nevada and UNLV? Would there be any benefit to take them both?

(10-25-2020 10:49 PM)46566 Wrote:  

(10-25-2020 02:31 PM)whittx Wrote:  

(10-25-2020 01:59 PM)46566 Wrote:  I always thought that 14 was the max in the number of teams in a P5 conference. It also doesn't help there's no slam dunk school to invite. The only conferences that have room is the Big 12 and PAC 12. The problem with the Big 12 is they would have to invite 4 teams (5 if for some reason they think West Virginia is to much of a traveling hassle) Anyone they add will devalue the contract and offer nothing more than quantity of games in the contract. The Big 12 would have been better to add 2 teams a few years ago and try to build them up as a contender.

For the Big 12 where would they expand to? Do they try with Louisiana Tech this would get game in Louisiana every other year but is really not a great pick team wise but it could get views if Texas and Oklahoma visited. Does the conference need a third team in Oklahoma with Tulsa? Arguably a better choice than Louisiana Tech and the Big 12 would be the college conference in town. Do the try to re-enter Colorado with state? Maybe try to use state to eventually try to look into getting colorado back?

The PAC 12 has less choice then the Big 12. Most of the big markets they have. Hawaii sports are not a good for the PAC 12 but would the 13th game and the week 0 schedule flexibility be worth it for the conference? Having a late game on espn be worth it? Could the Rainbow classic be put on the PAC 12 network and be used to get extra games on the PAC 12 network? The big question is who is the number 12? Does the conference go with San Diego State or go with Boise state for football? I honestly think San Diego State is a better choice football and basketball wise.

UNLV with its new stadium and Thomas and Mack would be considered as well, since SDSU doesn't bring another state in and Boise State is still in Idaho.

I'd figure Nevada is already covered with being surrounded by PAC 12 states. In my mind Hawaii would get Boise States spot in the PAC 12 north. While I admit Boise State is the better choice brand wise to think that the schedule flexibility hawaii brings outweigh t Boises strength. San Diego State was a option to the south that already goes to Utah, Arizona, Colorado and LA.

What about taking both Nevada and UNLV? Would there be any benefit to take them both?

The PAC looking at Mt West schools as expansion candidates:

Tier I: Colorado St, Hawaii, Nevada
Tier II: Boise St, New Mexico, San Diego St, UNLV
Tier III: Fresno St, Utah St, Wyoming
Tier IV: San Jose St
N/A: Air Force - no interest by the academy

(10-25-2020 08:20 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  They can get a lot more "bang for their buck" by investing in the development of the non-P5 conferences, as compared with making larger investments in the P5 conferences.

That's actually an interesting point.

(10-25-2020 01:59 PM)46566

[b' Wrote:  For the Big 12 where would they expand to? Do they try with Louisiana Tech[/b] this would get game in Louisiana every other year but is really not a great pick team wise .....

(10-25-2020 03:42 PM)bullet Wrote:  If the Pac 12 felt the urge to expand (not that I think they will), one of the teams would be Houston. Odds are the 2nd team would be SMU, but UNLV is a possibility.

I have no idea why the PAC, arguably the conference with the strictest standards for geography and culture, would expand all the way over to Texas for anyone but .... Texas. Houston and SMU are mis-fits in the PAC in every way. Even at the game level, PAC fans have zero interest in seeing their teams play them, and it even works the other way too - who at SMU ever has dreamed of a "big game" between SMU and Washington? Nobody.

Between them, SMU does meet the academic standard and that's it. Houston meets no standards. And I've been told we are past the days when you sign teams for their "markets", markets they don't even actually deliver.

Why would any P5 conference add any schools from outside the P5? What school (other than Notre Dame) would bring in ANY additional revenue to any conference?

(10-26-2020 08:56 AM)ccd494 Wrote:  Why would any P5 conference add any schools from outside the P5? What school (other than Notre Dame) would bring in ANY additional revenue to any conference?

Oh, haven’t you heard? The Big 12 has been after a Louisiana Tech for years, and the PAC 12 wants Southern Methodist because they need a school 4 states away with horrible athletics.

It’s all so reasonable and sensible.

I could see the Big 12 maybe expanding one day with some combination of Cincinnati, UCF, USF, but event that seems like an extreme long shot and would require some unforeseen events like one or more of them making the playoff.

(10-26-2020 10:16 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  I could see the Big 12 maybe expanding one day with some combination of Cincinnati, UCF, USF, but event that seems like an extreme long shot and would require some unforeseen events like one or more of them making the playoff.

I think it is more likely that the P5 would amend the rules to keep future interlopers out of the playoff.

The P5 is a cartel. They make their money regardless of whether UCF et al. have a nominal shot to make the playoff or not. Why divide the pie further?

(10-26-2020 10:16 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  I could see the Big 12 maybe expanding one day with some combination of Cincinnati, UCF, USF, but event that seems like an extreme long shot and would require some unforeseen events like one or more of them making the playoff.

Expansion has nothing to do with success on the field. If that were the case some of the schools that have received the golden ticket would still be playing in a G5 conference. It’s not even media markets anymore. If there will be expansion it will be all about the number of eyeballs they would be able to stream due to the size of their fan base and brand strength (to potentially draw in some more casual streamers).

(10-26-2020 10:31 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-26-2020 10:16 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  I could see the Big 12 maybe expanding one day with some combination of Cincinnati, UCF, USF, but event that seems like an extreme long shot and would require some unforeseen events like one or more of them making the playoff.

Expansion has nothing to do with success on the field. If that were the case some of the schools that have received the golden ticket would still be playing in a G5 conference. It’s not even media markets anymore. If there will be expansion it will be all about the number of eyeballs they would be able to stream due to the size of their fan base and brand strength (to potentially draw in some more casual streamers).

I think on field success has something to do with it. Winning brings those eyeballs if you can do enough of it.

This is all pretty unlikely, but if Cincinnati were to make the playoff this year, much less wins a game or the entire thing, that enhances their profile. If they do that multiple times over the next few years? Even more so. Cincinnati also has things like a long tradition and strong academics.

Like I said, it's an extreme longshot but if you squint really hard it's possible to see a path for those three schools because they have everything else, they just need the respect of commissioners/presidents and the eyeballs, which can be brought with winning.