(10-26-2020 12:31 PM)bill dazzle Wrote: (10-26-2020 11:19 AM)Todor Wrote: (10-26-2020 10:47 AM)CliftonAve Wrote: (10-26-2020 10:45 AM)Gamecock Wrote: (10-26-2020 10:31 AM)CliftonAve Wrote: Expansion has nothing to do with success on the field. If that were the case some of the schools that have received the golden ticket would still be playing in a G5 conference. It’s not even media markets anymore. If there will be expansion it will be all about the number of eyeballs they would be able to stream due to the size of their fan base and brand strength (to potentially draw in some more casual streamers).
I think on field success has something to do with it. Winning brings those eyeballs if you can do enough of it.
This is all pretty unlikely, but if Cincinnati were to make the playoff this year, much less wins a game or the entire thing, that enhances their profile. If they do that multiple times over the next few years? Even more so. Cincinnati also has things like a long tradition and strong academics.
Like I said, it's an extreme longshot but if you quint really it's possible to see a path for those three schools because they have everything else, they just need the respect of commissioners/presidents and the eyeballs, which can be brought with winning.
As a Cincinnati alum and fan I hope you are right.
Big 10 aside, what conference do most Cincy fans want to be in?
As a long-time Cincy fan, I would prefer UC be in the ACC, reunited with Louisville. That is a league in which UC could be competitive in football. The Big 12 would be fine, too, and is more realistic than the ACC (for which there is minimal chance). The SEC and Big Ten make zero sense on various levels. Obviously, UC would take a Power 5 invite from any of the five.
Cincy seems likely to become a power conference team, whether my joining one of the P5 conferences, or by remaining in the AAC until it becomes a power conference.
The ACC would probably be the best fit for Cincinnati, but the ACC already has 15 teams and might not find it advantageous to expand - - or some ACC schools might veto the idea. The Big 12 would seem to be the most likely to expand, but they firmly rejected a recent expansion proposal and if they were to expand, they might prefer a school (e.g., Houston, SMU, Memphis) closer to within their core geographical footprint. The PAC is probably too distant to be practical.
In a lot of ways, the American is - arguably - already a de facto FB power conference, in the sense that
it has had more top 25 FB teams than two other P5 conferences (the ACC and PAC) have had in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Similarly,
in 2020, there are four AAC schools in the AP Top 30 rankings, while the ACC and PAC combined have only five schools in the top 30.
An equally persuasive indication of the strength of the AAC is that,
even though three of its top FB programs (UCF, Navy, & Houston) aren't ranked in the top 30,
the conference still has enough depth and talent (SMU and Tulsa) to have
four top 30 teams.
If the AAC continues to have 3 or 4 top 25 FB teams for the next few years - - which is a very real possibility - - it may be only a matter of time before the leading sports journalists and commentators will begin to refer to the American as either a FBS "power conference" or as one of the "major" or "major 6" FBS conferences, in the same way that they currently refer to the AAC as one of the "major 7" BB conferences.
Now, if the American were to replace Connecticut with a FBS powerhouse, such as BYU (which is considered a P5-level program by the Big 10), it would become possible for the AAC to have as many as 4 or 5 top 25 FB teams per season, on average. This would be enough to establish the AAC as the nation's #4 FBS conference, ahead of the ACC and PAC. At that point, it would be truly absurd to continue to refer to the ACC and PAC as "power" conferences without referring to the AAC as a "power" conference.
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While this might seem unlikely, BYU has previously shown interest in joining the American and may be better off doing so - - and would have a better chance to qualify for a CFP playoff bowl - - according to journalist Patrick Kinahan and national college football writer Brett McMurphy:
“BYU football-only makes a ton of sense,” McMurphy said during an interview on The Zone Sports Network.
"As BYU athletic director Tom Holmoe has stated in previous group interviews with local media representatives, BYU’s status as an independent in football is not sustainable over the long term."
PK: BYU should seriously consider joining the American Athletic Conference
"In effect, replacing Connecticut with BYU would help the AAC maintain its financial terms with ESPN."
"BYU’s inclusion would open the Mountain time zone for the American... The conference and network (could) have three nationally televised games on a Saturday, with BYU in the latest time slot for home games."
https://1280thezone.com/pk-byu-should-se...onference/
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Arguably,
another way to establish the AAC as the nation's #4 FBS conference, ahead of the ACC and PAC (by virtue of having an average of 4 or 5 top 25 FB teams per season),
would be for the American
to replace Connecticut with a regional powerhouse, such as Boise State, Appalachian State, or Marshall.
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For Cincinnati and the American Athletic Conference,
the only remaining step to de facto power conference status would be to replace Connecticut with a program (e.g. VCU, Dayton, Richmond, Rhode Island)
that could send a team to the NCAA tournament on a regular or semi-regular basis.
With three perennial basketball powers (Houston, Cincy, Memphis), as well as programs with future NCAA tournament potential (e.g., Wichita State, SMU, Tulsa),
the addition of another strong basketball program would make it possible for the American to join the elite company of conferences that are able to send 5 teams to future NCAA tournaments.
At that point, the American would begin to be regarded - - in much the same way as the Big East BB conference is currently regarded - -
as the equivalent of a basketball power conference.
Viewership and national recognition would grow steadily, and would gradually approach that of the recognized power conferences.
By the time the next broadcasting deal is negotiated, the American will have much greater earning potential.
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The only thing that would distinguish the American from the P5 conferences at that point, other than the diminishing differences in viewership and revenue income would be NCAA autonomy and AQ status, both of which could be negotiated by the AAC's broadcasting partner in 2032, in the same way that "A5" status was initially negotiated.
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Whether Commissioner Aresco has the gumption and savvy to lead the American to power conference status by replacing Connecticut with high quality FB and BB programs or not is not clear.
However, it does seem clear
the American is already on the brink of attaining recognition as a de facto FB power conference,
and that
it is already regarded as one of the "major 7" BB conferences.
As the absence of UConn and its viewership segment becomes increasingly apparent to the conference and ESPN with each passing season, their willingness to consider adding a highly competitive FB only member and a high quality BB school may be likely to increase,
along with an increasing recognition of the travel costs and travel time that can be saved by returning to a divisional framework.
Of one thing there should be little doubt:
When Connecticut is replaced, the stature of the American will increase, measurably, and possibly by a quantum leap forward.
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The P5 conferences may be unlikely to add more than one or two more non-P5 members
