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(07-06-2020 11:12 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

(07-06-2020 10:33 AM)converrl Wrote:  Even with the uptick in mortality, after the numbers get adjusted, this will be on par with the flu.

Either go for it or go home.

Covid deaths are already AT LEAST double what last year's entire flu season deaths were (~24k-62k).

When you say "after the numbers get adjusted" you're just arbitrarily deciding to suppress the death toll to whatever you deem appropriate.

I'm guessing when it comes to the flu, however, youd be happy to go with the high end estimate of 60k for all of 2019.

Which would still be half of what coronavirus has done in 3 months.



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And when you just say "covid deaths" you're basically just doing the same thing by not looking at that figure without scrutiny.

About 1/4 of those "covid deaths" are nursing home/assisted living facility residents.

A large majority of the remainder are over 65 and heaven only knows how many of the listed death toll didn't actually die from covid19 and were just added to inflate the number.

So you just can't throw out "covid deaths" and act like the risk is the same for everybody, which it clearly is not.

However, the BS about covid19 changes from week to week to keep everyone in a frenzy. One week it's this. One week it's that. The next week it's something else. Masks don't work. Masks will save us all.

Heck, back in the beginning it was going to kill 2.2 million of us, right? ... but that was only until they could get us all locked up.

If we could just get the truth, we can make intelligent decisions. But, that's never going to happen.



Heaven only knows

(07-06-2020 12:16 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  

(07-06-2020 11:12 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

(07-06-2020 10:33 AM)converrl Wrote:  Even with the uptick in mortality, after the numbers get adjusted, this will be on par with the flu.

Either go for it or go home.

Covid deaths are already AT LEAST double what last year's entire flu season deaths were (~24k-62k).

When you say "after the numbers get adjusted" you're just arbitrarily deciding to suppress the death toll to whatever you deem appropriate.

I'm guessing when it comes to the flu, however, youd be happy to go with the high end estimate of 60k for all of 2019.

Which would still be half of what coronavirus has done in 3 months.



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And when you just say "covid deaths" you're basically just doing the same thing by not looking at that figure without scrutiny.

About 1/4 of those "covid deaths" are nursing home/assisted living facility residents.

A large majority of the remainder are over 65 and heaven only knows how many of the listed death toll didn't actually die from covid19 and were just added to inflate the number.

So you just can't throw out "covid deaths" and act like the risk is the same for everybody, which it clearly is not.

However, the BS about covid19 changes from week to week to keep everyone in a frenzy. One week it's this. One week it's that. The next week it's something else. Masks don't work. Masks will save us all.

Heck, back in the beginning it was going to kill 2.2 million of us, right? ... but that was only until they could get us all locked up.

If we could just get the truth, we can make intelligent decisions. But, that's never going to happen.



Heaven only knows

I know you think all the death toll numbers are inaccurate, but I'll give you a personal anecdote of it working the other way. I have a client who fell in a nursing home around a year ago and broke her hip. She gets transferred to a different nursing home and then COVID happens. Her nursing home does a terrible job preventing it and ends up having 15 accounted for deaths. She catches covid but gets transferred to a hospital. She recovers from covid but goes from 105 pounds to around 72 in a month. She passes away 3 weeks later due to a general failure to thrive and the death certificate doesn't say anything about covid and its not being counted as a COVID death.

(07-06-2020 12:23 PM)skylinecat Wrote:  

(07-06-2020 12:16 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  

(07-06-2020 11:12 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

(07-06-2020 10:33 AM)converrl Wrote:  Even with the uptick in mortality, after the numbers get adjusted, this will be on par with the flu.

Either go for it or go home.

Covid deaths are already AT LEAST double what last year's entire flu season deaths were (~24k-62k).

When you say "after the numbers get adjusted" you're just arbitrarily deciding to suppress the death toll to whatever you deem appropriate.

I'm guessing when it comes to the flu, however, youd be happy to go with the high end estimate of 60k for all of 2019.

Which would still be half of what coronavirus has done in 3 months.



Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

And when you just say "covid deaths" you're basically just doing the same thing by not looking at that figure without scrutiny.

About 1/4 of those "covid deaths" are nursing home/assisted living facility residents.

A large majority of the remainder are over 65 and heaven only knows how many of the listed death toll didn't actually die from covid19 and were just added to inflate the number.

So you just can't throw out "covid deaths" and act like the risk is the same for everybody, which it clearly is not.

However, the BS about covid19 changes from week to week to keep everyone in a frenzy. One week it's this. One week it's that. The next week it's something else. Masks don't work. Masks will save us all.

Heck, back in the beginning it was going to kill 2.2 million of us, right? ... but that was only until they could get us all locked up.

If we could just get the truth, we can make intelligent decisions. But, that's never going to happen.



Heaven only knows

I know you think all the death toll numbers are inaccurate, but I'll give you a personal anecdote of it working the other way. I have a client who fell in a nursing home around a year ago and broke her hip. She gets transferred to a different nursing home and then COVID happens. Her nursing home does a terrible job preventing it and ends up having 15 accounted for deaths. She catches covid but gets transferred to a hospital. She recovers from covid but goes from 105 pounds to around 72 in a month. She passes away 3 weeks later due to a general failure to thrive and the death certificate doesn't say anything about covid and its not being counted as a COVID death.

I get that, but I'd bet that there's 10X more on the opposite scenario for every one like that. But that's only a guess because we'll never know.

The medical leadership has been, at best, horribly inaccurate and at worst misleading in their reporting.

I'm sorry, I don't believe a dang thing lord Fauci says. I don't have to be a genius to know BS when I smell it.

I vacationed in Hilton Head, SC two weeks ago.

I struck up a lot of conversations about CFB around the beach bars when I saw guys sporting team gear.

More than one person told me that the rumor is that multiple SEC teams have players (on their own, I guess) doing things like sharing water bottles. Their logic is that it is better to acquire covid-19 now, as soon as possible, so that they can get over it, and once games start they don't have to worry about catching it and missing games.

Hey, I mean clemson is almost halfway to having their entire team infected.

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(07-06-2020 12:40 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  

(07-06-2020 12:23 PM)skylinecat Wrote:  

(07-06-2020 12:16 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  

(07-06-2020 11:12 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

(07-06-2020 10:33 AM)converrl Wrote:  Even with the uptick in mortality, after the numbers get adjusted, this will be on par with the flu.

Either go for it or go home.

Covid deaths are already AT LEAST double what last year's entire flu season deaths were (~24k-62k).

When you say "after the numbers get adjusted" you're just arbitrarily deciding to suppress the death toll to whatever you deem appropriate.

I'm guessing when it comes to the flu, however, youd be happy to go with the high end estimate of 60k for all of 2019.

Which would still be half of what coronavirus has done in 3 months.



Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

And when you just say "covid deaths" you're basically just doing the same thing by not looking at that figure without scrutiny.

About 1/4 of those "covid deaths" are nursing home/assisted living facility residents.

A large majority of the remainder are over 65 and heaven only knows how many of the listed death toll didn't actually die from covid19 and were just added to inflate the number.

So you just can't throw out "covid deaths" and act like the risk is the same for everybody, which it clearly is not.

However, the BS about covid19 changes from week to week to keep everyone in a frenzy. One week it's this. One week it's that. The next week it's something else. Masks don't work. Masks will save us all.

Heck, back in the beginning it was going to kill 2.2 million of us, right? ... but that was only until they could get us all locked up.

If we could just get the truth, we can make intelligent decisions. But, that's never going to happen.



Heaven only knows

I know you think all the death toll numbers are inaccurate, but I'll give you a personal anecdote of it working the other way. I have a client who fell in a nursing home around a year ago and broke her hip. She gets transferred to a different nursing home and then COVID happens. Her nursing home does a terrible job preventing it and ends up having 15 accounted for deaths. She catches covid but gets transferred to a hospital. She recovers from covid but goes from 105 pounds to around 72 in a month. She passes away 3 weeks later due to a general failure to thrive and the death certificate doesn't say anything about covid and its not being counted as a COVID death.

I get that, but I'd bet that there's 10X more on the opposite scenario for every one like that. But that's only a guess because we'll never know.

The medical leadership has been, at best, horribly inaccurate and at worst misleading in their reporting.

I'm sorry, I don't believe a dang thing lord Fauci says. I don't have to be a genius to know BS when I smell it.

"I'd bet" isn't a reliable method of calculation. Are the numbers perfect? Of course not. But the notion that "we'll never know" is stupid. Of course we know. A lot of people have died from covid.

(07-06-2020 12:44 PM)namrag Wrote:  I vacationed in Hilton Head, SC two weeks ago.

I struck up a lot of conversations about CFB around the beach bars when I saw guys sporting team gear.

More than one person told me that the rumor is that multiple SEC teams have players (on their own, I guess) doing things like sharing water bottles. Their logic is that it is better to acquire covid-19 now, as soon as possible, so that they can get over it, and once games start they don't have to worry about catching it and missing games.

(07-06-2020 12:50 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Hey, I mean clemson is almost halfway to having their entire team infected.

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I thought this would be a wise way to go about it but I remember hearing a recent study that the antibodies might not last as long in your body as they previously thought so getting it now might not make you immune for the season. Although given college kids are more likely to be struck by lightning than suffering a severe virus reaction it wouldn't make sense to spread it if there were no benefit.

The "we'll never know the REAL numbers" mantra is just a guise for "the real numbers are whatever I want them to be" rather than an honest attempt to adequately scrutinize existing information.

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(07-06-2020 01:10 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  The "we'll never know the REAL numbers" mantra is just a guise for "the real numbers are whatever I want them to be" rather than an honest attempt to adequately scrutinize existing information.

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When leadership is dishonest and wishy washy people tune out pretty quickly. I know I don't have the time to decode truth from lies.

I've broken it down to myself pretty simply. There are two known ways out of a pandemic herd immunity and vaccine. What that basically means is you either get the virus or get the vaccine (assuming it ever shows up). I'm not so confident that vaccine ever shows up. I'm cool with slowing the spread to keep the hospitals available. I would like to know what that rate needs to be.

(07-06-2020 02:42 PM)Z-Fly Wrote:  

(07-06-2020 01:10 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  The "we'll never know the REAL numbers" mantra is just a guise for "the real numbers are whatever I want them to be" rather than an honest attempt to adequately scrutinize existing information.

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When leadership is dishonest and wishy washy people tune out pretty quickly. I know I don't have the time to decode truth from lies.

I've broken it down to myself pretty simply. There are two known ways out of a pandemic herd immunity and vaccine. What that basically means is you either get the virus or get the vaccine (assuming it ever shows up). I'm not so confident that vaccine ever shows up. I'm cool with slowing the spread to keep the hospitals available. I would like to know what that rate needs to be.

There is no guarantee that there will ever be a heard immunity. We don't have it for the cold or the flu. There is also the likely possibility that the antibodies only last for up to a year meaning unless we all got it within like a month of each other, there most likely will never be a heard immunity even if it actually did work that way.

(07-06-2020 01:10 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  The "we'll never know the REAL numbers" mantra is just a guise for "the real numbers are whatever I want them to be" rather than an honest attempt to adequately scrutinize existing information.

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Well, the REAL numbers aren't what they're reported to be. I guarantee that.

Play ball.

(07-06-2020 02:42 PM)Z-Fly Wrote:  

(07-06-2020 01:10 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  The "we'll never know the REAL numbers" mantra is just a guise for "the real numbers are whatever I want them to be" rather than an honest attempt to adequately scrutinize existing information.

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When leadership is dishonest and wishy washy people tune out pretty quickly. I know I don't have the time to decode truth from lies.

I've broken it down to myself pretty simply. There are two known ways out of a pandemic herd immunity and vaccine. What that basically means is you either get the virus or get the vaccine (assuming it ever shows up). I'm not so confident that vaccine ever shows up. I'm cool with slowing the spread to keep the hospitals available. I would like to know what that rate needs to be.

I think this is the right take on all this. We can't shut everything down. We just can't economically survive it. Instead we have to find that middle ground where we impose select restrictions, take reasonable precautions and constantly monitor in light of hospital capacity. I think it's safe to say Texas and Florida were too cavalier in letting up restrictions. Hospitals are full or filling up there.

(07-06-2020 02:42 PM)Z-Fly Wrote:  

(07-06-2020 01:10 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  The "we'll never know the REAL numbers" mantra is just a guise for "the real numbers are whatever I want them to be" rather than an honest attempt to adequately scrutinize existing information.

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When leadership is dishonest and wishy washy people tune out pretty quickly. I know I don't have the time to decode truth from lies.

I've broken it down to myself pretty simply. There are two known ways out of a pandemic herd immunity and vaccine. What that basically means is you either get the virus or get the vaccine (assuming it ever shows up). I'm not so confident that vaccine ever shows up. I'm cool with slowing the spread to keep the hospitals available. I would like to know what that rate needs to be.

Smartest response on the internet.

(07-06-2020 11:12 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

(07-06-2020 10:33 AM)converrl Wrote:  Even with the uptick in mortality, after the numbers get adjusted, this will be on par with the flu.

Either go for it or go home.

Covid deaths are already AT LEAST double what last year's entire flu season deaths were (~24k-62k).

When you say "after the numbers get adjusted" you're just arbitrarily deciding to suppress the death toll to whatever you deem appropriate.

I'm guessing when it comes to the flu, however, youd be happy to go with the high end estimate of 60k for all of 2019.

Which would still be half of what coronavirus has done in 3 months.



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Since Health Insurance is footing the bill for covid hospitalizations and deaths, those numbers are being artificially inflated. They also make no distinction between dying "from" covid and dying "with" covid..this further padding the numbers...This comes to me from colleagues in the medical field...doctors and nurses.

The mortality rate continues to drop close to flu levels.

(07-06-2020 04:22 PM)converrl Wrote:  

(07-06-2020 11:12 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

(07-06-2020 10:33 AM)converrl Wrote:  Even with the uptick in mortality, after the numbers get adjusted, this will be on par with the flu.

Either go for it or go home.

Covid deaths are already AT LEAST double what last year's entire flu season deaths were (~24k-62k).

When you say "after the numbers get adjusted" you're just arbitrarily deciding to suppress the death toll to whatever you deem appropriate.

I'm guessing when it comes to the flu, however, youd be happy to go with the high end estimate of 60k for all of 2019.

Which would still be half of what coronavirus has done in 3 months.



Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Since Health Insurance is footing the bill for covid hospitalizations and deaths, those numbers are being artificially inflated. They also make no distinction between dying "from" covid and dying "with" covid..this further padding the numbers...This comes to me from colleagues in the medical field...doctors and nurses.

The mortality rate continues to drop close to flu levels.

So what's the number? 10 people dead from covid? I just want to make sure the reliable information I read on the internet is accurate.

Well if it's a choice between the best medical school in the country and Bear Catlett, I'm taking my guys on Bearcat Banter every day of the week

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That said, I've posted a lot on here about appealing to false senses of authority. And i think it's generally good to be skeptical of the numbers. The issue is that too many people use uncertainty as an answer instead of a question. So instead of asking why the numbers may have room for error, they instead see error as an inherent failure within the numbers.

I always tell my students when interpreting data that large error margins can tell you a lot, and it's never enough to write variability off as the result of poor experimentation or poor analysis. Rather, the best scientista understand how to represent data in the scope of whatever error arises, while simultaneously acknowleding the limitations of whatever you're studying.

Unfortunetly, this skill is lacking for many researchers (including in biomedical research). And when answers aren't as black and white as people are accustomed to in other areas of life, they see this as cause to distrust whatever info comes their way thereafter.

I sympathsize with the covid truthers. But I urge everyone to work harder at understanding the complexity of what's happening instead of lumping everything into "truth" and "lie"

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(07-06-2020 05:15 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Well if it's a choice between the best medical school in the country and Bear Catlett, I'm taking my guys on Bearcat Banter every day of the week

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I owe it to my facebook friends to make sure it's accurate before I share it across social media.

(07-06-2020 05:13 PM)MickMack Wrote:  

(07-06-2020 04:22 PM)converrl Wrote:  

(07-06-2020 11:12 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

(07-06-2020 10:33 AM)converrl Wrote:  Even with the uptick in mortality, after the numbers get adjusted, this will be on par with the flu.

Either go for it or go home.

Covid deaths are already AT LEAST double what last year's entire flu season deaths were (~24k-62k).

When you say "after the numbers get adjusted" you're just arbitrarily deciding to suppress the death toll to whatever you deem appropriate.

I'm guessing when it comes to the flu, however, youd be happy to go with the high end estimate of 60k for all of 2019.

Which would still be half of what coronavirus has done in 3 months.



Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Since Health Insurance is footing the bill for covid hospitalizations and deaths, those numbers are being artificially inflated. They also make no distinction between dying "from" covid and dying "with" covid..this further padding the numbers...This comes to me from colleagues in the medical field...doctors and nurses.

The mortality rate continues to drop close to flu levels.

So what's the number? 10 people dead from covid? I just want to make sure the reliable information I read on the internet is accurate.

Track the total global death rates from CoVid and note that those numbers are inflated. How inflated comes with examination of the data after the pandemic is over...should be around vaccine time...if that ever comes.

Any time you have access to $$$ to pony up for something insurance wouldn't normally wouldn't cover, the Health Care Administrators are going to push for the pot of $$$$ that is basically open-access in the hope that it will pay out before you assign those deaths and hospitalizations to other causes. This is simply due to the need to cover operating expenses.

Again, this comes from associates who are working on the floor with these patients--these are unvarnished stories coming from their experience.