(06-18-2020 02:13 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(06-17-2020 04:31 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  

(06-17-2020 09:40 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  Significantly more testing is taking place than before. Before, we were focused on the symptomatic and making sure we had resources to care for people. Now we're concerned with the asymptomatic as more of an academic pursuit as our resources were NOT overwhelmed. This shouldn't (though it often is) be confused with a higher transmission rate.

As people go back to work, one of the protocols for returning is mandatory testing. You are by definition going to now catch asymptomatic people.... who DO spread the disease, but at an exponentially lower rate.

My next door neighbor is the manager for about a dozen urgent care-type places in the Houston area. He was hoping business would pick up because they are one of the places companies can use to test employees going back to work for Covid 19, but he said it's still incredibly slow at his company.

There are certainly more tests being done but the numbers are also going up because people are getting lax in their diligence on social distancing, wearing masks, etc. Look at Hays County with its 155 new cases yesterday - more than half of the new cases are folks in the 20-29 age group. Those aren't people going back to work - those are people partying in the college towns (San Marcos) or going tubing down the Guadalupe. Bexar County is another area where young people in particular are getting infected at higher rates than the national average.

Governor Abbott did seem pretty annoyed with the numbers increasing, and he did single out young people ignoring some of the guidelines. Between that, and the prisons, industrial plants, nursing homes, etc., it's clear that a lot of the cases are coming from obvious sources.

I did similar until a few months ago... Some of my former centers are now packed doing testing... and others are dead in the water. It's a question of access, and Houston has TONS of healthcare access.

I think the issue is that many companies are doing their own daily administration as opposed to sending people to urgent care facilities.

Purely anecdotal, a friend of mine in Houston posted yesterday a video of the long lines for covid testing.... Maybe your friend should look at his marketing?

Well there are plenty of free testing sites. The one at Butler Stadium (also one at Delmar) usually 'sells out' by 11 am or so. It's going to cost a lot if you have Covid 19 - may as well get a free test over a paid one if you can swing it.

My wife has been tested 5 or 6 times so far. Thankfully all negative. She was pretty nervous last week as one of her patients pulled her mask down for a few minutes during her checkup and then tested positive that evening.

Stay safe everyone and wear your damn masks!

A record 150,000 new cases in the world today. Brazil broke our (the U.S.) one-day record with 55,000 new cases today (U.S. had the previous record of about 40K cases in a single day).

About the only positive is the worldwide (and U.S.) death rates are much lower than they were back in March and early April. Either we're treating people more effectively, or perhaps the strains going around are weaker in nature.

(06-19-2020 09:57 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Stay safe everyone and wear your damn masks!

A record 150,000 new cases in the world today. Brazil broke our (the U.S.) one-day record with 55,000 new cases today (U.S. had the previous record of about 40K cases in a single day).

About the only positive is the worldwide (and U.S.) death rates are much lower than they were back in March and early April. Either we're treating people more effectively, or perhaps the strains going around are weaker in nature.

This is literally like the opposite of the old "other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?" joke. The only good news is that deaths are low? By definition there couldn't be a more important metric.

It's not the "only" good indicator, either. Hospital bed and ventilator capacity is ample. Testing capacity -- which of course yields cases -- has been built from nothing to ubiquitous in a matter of weeks. Positivity rate remains low. So spread is continuing -- and it was always going to; in fact needs to -- but at a manageable rate.

"Record cases!!" is no longer the canary in the coal mine it once was, and at some point people might reasonably begin to wonder why some choose to keep flogging that statistic to the exclusion of others.

(06-20-2020 10:52 AM)illiniowl Wrote:  "Record cases!!" is no longer the canary in the coal mine it once was, and at some point people might reasonably begin to wonder why some choose to keep flogging that statistic to the exclusion of others.

Except that new cases are a leading indicator for future increases in hospitalizations, ventilator usage, and deaths. You comment will look as stupid to you in 1-2 weeks as it looks to many of us today.

I was joking to some folks big that Louisiana might need to return the favor to Texas, and force visitors from Texas to immediately quarantine for 14 days when they travel to Louisiana.

Honestly, the death rates should be even lower at this point than they are. But it's a case of people not taking this seriously enough.

I would prefer they get even lower thru the summer because they're absolutely going to rise again in the late fall/winter if we don't have a vaccine in place by then. Perhaps not in the U.S. (which was the case with the 1968-69 Hong Kong Flu), but they will be high somewhere.

(06-20-2020 03:44 PM)mrbig Wrote:  

(06-20-2020 10:52 AM)illiniowl Wrote:  "Record cases!!" is no longer the canary in the coal mine it once was, and at some point people might reasonably begin to wonder why some choose to keep flogging that statistic to the exclusion of others.

Except that new cases are a leading indicator for future increases in hospitalizations, ventilator usage, and deaths. You comment will look as stupid to you in 1-2 weeks as it looks to many of us today.

Maybe they are, maybe they aren't. When the new cases were older folks, the severity was great. Now the average age of new cases is working downward, and the new cases are less in the high-risk zone.

(06-20-2020 03:44 PM)mrbig Wrote:  

(06-20-2020 10:52 AM)illiniowl Wrote:  "Record cases!!" is no longer the canary in the coal mine it once was, and at some point people might reasonably begin to wonder why some choose to keep flogging that statistic to the exclusion of others.

Except that new cases are a leading indicator for future increases in hospitalizations, ventilator usage, and deaths. You comment will look as stupid to you in 1-2 weeks as it looks to many of us today.

If in 1-2 weeks our healthcare system is overrun and cemeteries are overflowing, then fine. I'll donate $1000 to a charity of your choice if that's the case. If not, you donate $10 to one of mine - deal? Should be easy to take money from someone stupider than you.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis acknowledged on Saturday that the rising number of new Covid-19 cases in Florida cannot be explained away by an increase in testing, and announced plans to step up enforcement of social distancing practices in bars and nightclubs.

“Even with the testing increasing or being flat, the number of people testing positive is accelerating faster than that,” DeSantis told reporters during a briefing at the state Capitol. “You know that's evidence that there's transmission within those communities.”

The Florida Department of Health reported more than 4,000 new Covid-19 diagnoses on Friday, the latest peak in positive Florida cases that began climbing about a month after the state began reopening its economy on May 4. The rate of new coronavirus cases has more than doubled over the past 10 days. On Friday, just over 12 percent of test results came back positive for Covid-19, which is an increase from 5.5 percent on June 10, according to a report by the Florida Department of Health.

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/...ke-1293901

That's the thing about the argument the higher cases are strictly due to more testing. That doesn't explain the higher percentage of positive tests. I suspect the same percentages of higher positives is true in the other states where the numbers are spiking like Texas, California (mostly Southern outside of 1 or 2 counties in the middle part of the state), Georgia, Arizona, South Carolina, etc.

(06-20-2020 08:14 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis acknowledged on Saturday that the rising number of new Covid-19 cases in Florida cannot be explained away by an increase in testing, and announced plans to step up enforcement of social distancing practices in bars and nightclubs.

“Even with the testing increasing or being flat, the number of people testing positive is accelerating faster than that,” DeSantis told reporters during a briefing at the state Capitol. “You know that's evidence that there's transmission within those communities.”

The Florida Department of Health reported more than 4,000 new Covid-19 diagnoses on Friday, the latest peak in positive Florida cases that began climbing about a month after the state began reopening its economy on May 4. The rate of new coronavirus cases has more than doubled over the past 10 days. On Friday, just over 12 percent of test results came back positive for Covid-19, which is an increase from 5.5 percent on June 10, according to a report by the Florida Department of Health.

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/...ke-1293901

That's the thing about the argument the higher cases are strictly due to more testing. That doesn't explain the higher percentage of positive tests. I suspect the same percentages of higher positives is true in the other states where the numbers are spiking like Texas, California (mostly Southern outside of 1 or 2 counties in the middle part of the state), Georgia, Arizona, South Carolina, etc.

And I will give you $1000 if you can find the words "strictly" or "explained away" or any some such in my posts. I even said there were always going to be some increases -- in deaths as well as cases for that matter -- with reopening. I just don't clutch my pearls over it. Nobody was promised a blissful, bump-free ride through a pandemic to vaccine town. Even that alarmist "The Hammer and the Dance" article that liberals were swearing by 3 months ago said there would be peaks and troughs (the dance) after the lockdowns (the hammer) were lifted.

Of course, that article did not predict that the lockdown lift would be immediately followed by two weeks of millions of people blowing off social distancing to agitate for the brilliant idea of abolishing the police. And lo and behold, two weeks later, we have increases! At least have the intellectual honesty to direct some of your ire toward them and not just the red-state yokels and politicians.

Getting tougher on enforcing the social distancing guidelines and mask usage is fine by me. It's not conservatives who have a fundamental problem with the concept of law enforcement. I've even said that Trump blew it on masks and needlessly politicized the issue.

But there are multiple variables at work -- testing, increased interaction due to commerce, increased interaction due to protests and riots and looting, mask usage, people needing care for non-COVID conditions exacerbated by the lockdowns, etc. -- yet somehow that context and fuller picture keeps going missing in the MSM and on here. Anyone have a guess as to why?

(06-20-2020 11:33 PM)illiniowl Wrote:  

(06-20-2020 08:14 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis acknowledged on Saturday that the rising number of new Covid-19 cases in Florida cannot be explained away by an increase in testing, and announced plans to step up enforcement of social distancing practices in bars and nightclubs.

“Even with the testing increasing or being flat, the number of people testing positive is accelerating faster than that,” DeSantis told reporters during a briefing at the state Capitol. “You know that's evidence that there's transmission within those communities.”

The Florida Department of Health reported more than 4,000 new Covid-19 diagnoses on Friday, the latest peak in positive Florida cases that began climbing about a month after the state began reopening its economy on May 4. The rate of new coronavirus cases has more than doubled over the past 10 days. On Friday, just over 12 percent of test results came back positive for Covid-19, which is an increase from 5.5 percent on June 10, according to a report by the Florida Department of Health.

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/...ke-1293901

That's the thing about the argument the higher cases are strictly due to more testing. That doesn't explain the higher percentage of positive tests. I suspect the same percentages of higher positives is true in the other states where the numbers are spiking like Texas, California (mostly Southern outside of 1 or 2 counties in the middle part of the state), Georgia, Arizona, South Carolina, etc.

And I will give you $1000 if you can find the words "strictly" or "explained away" or any some such in my posts. I even said there were always going to be some increases -- in deaths as well as cases for that matter -- with reopening. I just don't clutch my pearls over it. Nobody was promised a blissful, bump-free ride through a pandemic to vaccine town. Even that alarmist "The Hammer and the Dance" article that liberals were swearing by 3 months ago said there would be peaks and troughs (the dance) after the lockdowns (the hammer) were lifted.

Of course, that article did not predict that the lockdown lift would be immediately followed by two weeks of millions of people blowing off social distancing to agitate for the brilliant idea of abolishing the police. And lo and behold, two weeks later, we have increases! At least have the intellectual honesty to direct some of your ire toward them and not just the red-state yokels and politicians.

Getting tougher on enforcing the social distancing guidelines and mask usage is fine by me. It's not conservatives who have a fundamental problem with the concept of law enforcement. I've even said that Trump blew it on masks and needlessly politicized the issue.

But there are multiple variables at work -- testing, increased interaction due to commerce, increased interaction due to protests and riots and looting, mask usage, people needing care for non-COVID conditions exacerbated by the lockdowns, etc. -- yet somehow that context and fuller picture keeps going missing in the MSM and on here. Anyone have a guess as to why?

Yes

I was still referring to Hambone with my posts FWIW.

I'm not happy with the protests either. My siblings are in the group thinking that's a justified reason to put yourself and others at risk, and I think they're crazy. But so far, the areas showing an increase in cases aren't the protest areas as much as areas where there are lots of young people who are partying together in big crowds. Perhaps the numbers tick up again in New York, DC, Minneapolis, etc. in a few weeks like they have been in Texas, Florida, Southern California, and other southern states.

BTW, I was in the camp that it was okay for Governor Abbott to open up parts of Texas. But I think he's been too eager to go from 25 to 50 to 75 percent capacity, when quite frankly the data wasn't there to suggest we were trending in the right direction. I'd like to see him go back to 50 percent and admit it was too much too soon at this point. In my neighborhood alone, we've had 3 businesses along Highway 6 in the front of my community shut down because employees tested positive within the last few weeks (a Firestone tire place, a Valero gas station and the Chick-Fil-A where 4 employees tested positive).

Some economic studies:

Lifting of lockdown in Wisconsin in May -- completely, not just phased -- had no causative effect w/r/t COVID-19 cases or mortality, or people's social distancing compliance

Economy-wide lockdown measures save fewer lives than less costly, targeted restrictions for high-risk groups

(06-21-2020 01:09 PM)illiniowl Wrote:  Some economic studies:

Lifting of lockdown in Wisconsin in May -- completely, not just phased -- had no causative effect w/r/t COVID-19 cases or mortality, or people's social distancing compliance

Economy-wide lockdown measures save fewer lives than less costly, targeted restrictions for high-risk groups

Your 2nd link says those people 65-and-older remain under complete lockdown until the arrival of a vaccine.

Works for me - they can lockdown Trump (Biden too) until a vaccine is in place.

(06-21-2020 01:35 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  

(06-21-2020 01:09 PM)illiniowl Wrote:  Some economic studies:

Lifting of lockdown in Wisconsin in May -- completely, not just phased -- had no causative effect w/r/t COVID-19 cases or mortality, or people's social distancing compliance

Economy-wide lockdown measures save fewer lives than less costly, targeted restrictions for high-risk groups

Your 2nd link says those people 65-and-older remain under complete lockdown until the arrival of a vaccine.

Works for me - they can lockdown Trump (Biden too) until a vaccine is in place.

Hey!!!

Remember, some day, if you are lucky, you will be over 65. Don't make it a crime to be old.

I think older people in concentration - assisted living, senior living,nursing homes , etc - would benefit from stricter lock down policies.

But the ones of us who still take care of ourselves should not be locked down.

https://www.click2houston.com/news/local...vs-orders/

12 bars in Texas have just had their licenses suspended for 30 days due to violating the state orders on capacity.

Friday
Werk Bar, El Paso
Marty’s Live, Dallas
Elevate Night Club, McAllen

Saturday
Buford’s Backyard Beer Garden, Austin
Whiskey, Tango, Foxtrot Icehouse, Austin

Sunday
Handlebar Houston, Houston
BARge 295, Seabrook
Harris House of Heroes, Dallas
The New PR’s, Fort Worth
UnBARlievable (West 6th), Austin
Little Woodrow’s, Lubbock
Coconuts, El Paso

(06-21-2020 05:55 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  https://www.click2houston.com/news/local...vs-orders/

12 bars in Texas have just had their licenses suspended for 30 days due to violating the state orders on capacity.

Friday
Werk Bar, El Paso
Marty’s Live, Dallas
Elevate Night Club, McAllen

Saturday
Buford’s Backyard Beer Garden, Austin
Whiskey, Tango, Foxtrot Icehouse, Austin

Sunday
Handlebar Houston, Houston
BARge 295, Seabrook
Harris House of Heroes, Dallas
The New PR’s, Fort Worth
UnBARlievable (West 6th), Austin
Little Woodrow’s, Lubbock
Coconuts, El Paso

So how many does that leave open?

https://twitter.com/HoustonHealth/status...29/photo/1

Harris County covid cases by regular hospital beds and ICU beds. The trend is terrible.

Governor Abbott did say today that if the cases double again as they have over the past month, that he would likely revert back to some of the prior measures they had in place. He didn't say this but I took it to mean that we're going to go back to stage 2 from the current stage 3. Hopefully people wearing their masks again more will keep the numbers from going any higher.

(06-22-2020 05:19 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  https://twitter.com/HoustonHealth/status...29/photo/1

Harris County covid cases by regular hospital beds and ICU beds. The trend is terrible.

Governor Abbott did say today that if the cases double again as they have over the past month, that he would likely revert back to some of the prior measures they had in place. He didn't say this but I took it to mean that we're going to go back to stage 2 from the current stage 3. Hopefully people wearing their masks again more will keep the numbers from going any higher.

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiY...IsImMiOjN9

You may want to look at the raw data.