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(06-15-2020 05:19 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Today we officially have lost more people to coronavirus than we did in World War 1. Just stunning to think about in that context.

As far as reopening, Ohio is relatively back to normal. We seemed to do a good job of closing early, adhering to recommendations, and as a result are back in business relatively quickly and with limited casulties. The only place I've seen widespread mask use is at Whole Foods. But that's not to say you shouldn't wear them, only that Ohio has afforded the opportunity to make the decision on your own.

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It's stunning how little you know about WWI. You need to open a history book. US was in WWI for all of what 4-5 months? And half those deaths were from the Spanish Flu.

(06-16-2020 10:18 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(06-15-2020 05:19 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Today we officially have lost more people to coronavirus than we did in World War 1. Just stunning to think about in that context.

As far as reopening, Ohio is relatively back to normal. We seemed to do a good job of closing early, adhering to recommendations, and as a result are back in business relatively quickly and with limited casulties. The only place I've seen widespread mask use is at Whole Foods. But that's not to say you shouldn't wear them, only that Ohio has afforded the opportunity to make the decision on your own.

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The USA was only in World War 1 for about as long as we've been shut down.

Sure, we declared war in April 1917, but the first troops didn't see any combat until October 1917 and we didn't pass 10,000 military deaths until September 1918. The war ended November 1918.

Yep. The US jumped in on the tail end of the war. It had been going on officially in Europe since 1914. The Euros sustained massive casualties, both combatant and civilian. I have seen figures as high as 40 million. The Russians, by themselves, lost 3.5M people. Serbia, which was a much smaller nation by scale so their gross numbers were not as high, lost nearly 25% of their population.

I'm not sure how that actually negates my point in any way. If anything, you're illustrating further how deadly the coronavirus has been...

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(06-16-2020 11:41 AM)Helicopter Wrote:  

(06-15-2020 05:19 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Today we officially have lost more people to coronavirus than we did in World War 1. Just stunning to think about in that context.

As far as reopening, Ohio is relatively back to normal. We seemed to do a good job of closing early, adhering to recommendations, and as a result are back in business relatively quickly and with limited casulties. The only place I've seen widespread mask use is at Whole Foods. But that's not to say you shouldn't wear them, only that Ohio has afforded the opportunity to make the decision on your own.

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It's stunning how little you know about WWI. You need to open a history book. US was in WWI for all of what 4-5 months? And half those deaths were from the Spanish Flu.

Lol "you need to open a history book". Dude, i literally just compared one casualty number to another. I'm really proud of you for knowing how long WW1 was, but that has literally no relevance to what I said.

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(06-16-2020 12:22 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

(06-16-2020 11:41 AM)Helicopter Wrote:  

(06-15-2020 05:19 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Today we officially have lost more people to coronavirus than we did in World War 1. Just stunning to think about in that context.

As far as reopening, Ohio is relatively back to normal. We seemed to do a good job of closing early, adhering to recommendations, and as a result are back in business relatively quickly and with limited casulties. The only place I've seen widespread mask use is at Whole Foods. But that's not to say you shouldn't wear them, only that Ohio has afforded the opportunity to make the decision on your own.

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It's stunning how little you know about WWI. You need to open a history book. US was in WWI for all of what 4-5 months? And half those deaths were from the Spanish Flu.

Lol "you need to open a history book". Dude, i literally just compared one casualty number to another. I'm really proud of you for knowing how long WW1 was, but that has literally no relevance to what I said.

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Their point was that your stat was misleading.

In what way?

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(06-16-2020 03:26 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  In what way?

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Seriously?

Ok, I'll explain it like I would to my 6-year old: Your point of reference was to the 2nd greatest war in human history. This makes the reader think you are comparing COVID deaths to a large number. But you were actually comparing COVID deaths to a very small number, both because population was much smaller back then (the US population has more than tripled since then) and because the USA wasn't really involved.


Here, I'll do it the other way: there have been more deaths by drowning in the last two years than from COVID. Does this mean that we should make the same effort toward defeating drowning that we are making towards defeating COVID? Of course not.

Or this way: There are 20 times more refugees from the socialist government in Venezuela than total worldwide deaths from COVID. Does this mean that we should make the same effort towards defeating Venezuela that we are making to defeat COVID? Of course not.

(06-16-2020 10:27 AM)MickMack Wrote:  

(06-15-2020 04:09 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  I went into the sheriff's office today to get an accident report. They had a sign saying I would be asked to wear a mask after I enter, so i asked the first deputy I saw if I had to wear one. His answer: "Technically." So I put one on, until I realized that I was the only person in the building with a mask on.

I live in Illinois, which "technically" requires facemasks in all public places until there is a vaccine.

Coming to Cincinnati this week through the 4th to visit my parents. Thinking of taking the kids to the zoo. Is pretty much everything back to normal in Ohio?

The Zoo is open but a reservation is required. I'm not 100% on this but I think reservations are only open to members. Indoor buildings (including restaurants) remain closed, but there were food trucks when we were there. Most importantly the beer kiosk near the entrance is open.

Thanks for the tip on the beer kiosk!

(06-16-2020 03:56 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(06-16-2020 03:26 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  In what way?

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Seriously?

Ok, I'll explain it like I would to my 6-year old: Your point of reference was to the 2nd greatest war in human history. This makes the reader think you are comparing COVID deaths to a large number. But you were actually comparing COVID deaths to a very small number, both because population was much smaller back then (the US population has more than tripled since then) and because the USA wasn't really involved.


Here, I'll do it the other way: there have been more deaths by drowning in the last two years than from COVID. Does this mean that we should make the same effort toward defeating drowning that we are making towards defeating COVID? Of course not.

Or this way: There are 20 times more refugees from the socialist government in Venezuela than total worldwide deaths from COVID. Does this mean that we should make the same effort towards defeating Venezuela that we are making to defeat COVID? Of course not.

Oh Jesus christ

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How about this, 116000 people have died. That is a lot.

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(06-16-2020 04:14 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  How about this, 116000 people have died. That is a lot.

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They should have stopped shoving the infected into nursing homes in New York and New Jersey. Something that is never done with Influenza.

If they weren't scared into a bad decision, your beloved by you fatality rate would have been much much less. Also, you always forget to remove the Covid deaths that were not the true cause of death - only reported because of the fear mandates and the financial incentives.

As BearcatMark loves with his hoops - the 'adjusted' fatalities in the US would be 50-60k. About the same as a bad Influenza season.

The protests have ended all credibility from the lockdown, mask wearing, social distancing crowd. I know you would be stunned that people are already back to shaking hands in non-fear mongering professions.

But you did forget one big fatality. The Mason/Warren County economy as Coronavirus fears have killed the Western Southern tennis tournament. The USTA is moving it, to all places lol, New York City.

(06-16-2020 06:16 PM)Ragpicker Wrote:  [quote='Cataclysmo' pid='16864880' dateline='1592342065']
How about this, 116000 people have died. That is a lot.

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They should have stopped shoving the infected into nursing homes in New York and New Jersey. Something that is never done with Influenza.

If they weren't scared into a bad decision, your beloved by you fatality rate would have been much much less. Also, you always forget to remove the Covid deaths that were not the true cause of death - only reported because of the fear mandates and the financial incentives.

As BearcatMark loves with his hoops - the 'adjusted' fatalities in the US would be 50-60k. About the same as a bad Influenza season.

The protests have ended all credibility from the lockdown, mask wearing, social distancing crowd. I know you would be stunned that people are already back to shaking hands in non-fear mongering professions.

But you did forget one big fatality. The Mason/Warren County economy as Coronavirus fears have killed the Western Southern tennis tournament. The USTA is moving it, to all places lol, New York City.
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Covid-19 deaths should be adjusted higher as Pneumonia/Influenza deaths always decrease significantly at the start of March. If you adjusted the number down as you suggested we would have 115K Pneumonia/Influenza deaths in a 4 month period from February to June. That is Statistically impossible as those type of deaths always decline significantly when the weather warms up. The last time we had that many Pneumonia/Influenza deaths in a 4 month period was the Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1919!

Loco, I don’t have the numbers, but I heard that death rate per month in 1957 was the highest on record. As is always the case, I could be wrong. My wife would say that the possibility is very high.

Can’t we all just agree to disagree? And drop it?

One thing is for sure, 2020 has been the worst year of my life. My dog of 16 years died, my wife lost her job, my mom was in the hospital for almost 3 weeks, and then... the Coronavirus hit!

Whether you belief the spin about the virus or not, the outcome to date is not in doubt. It has been absolutely terrible. Add in racial tension, political unrest, cancel culture and rioting.. man is that the icing on the cake.

It’s like the end of times out here.

Good morning Bearcat Banter! Just now waking up here at Ocean Isle Beach, NC. Sunny blue sky. Ocean breeze cranked up. Our balcony is less than 100 yards from the breakers. Plenty of room on the beach to maintain social distancing. Most restaurants are open for business limiting the number of patrons inside. Since my wife had her chemo treatment last Friday we just did takeout. Gonna sip my coffee and soon pack up for the beach. On the agenda for today: relax in beach chair. Nap. Relax in beach chair. Watch waves, birds, people. Stroll in water. Pick up a few shells. Nap. Read book. Nap. Ok, you get the picture. No social unrest here. No COVID-19 on the beach. Just enjoying God's great ocean and blue sky. Liberating and mental/emotional recharging at its finest. Topped off our first night with some Woodford Reserve bourbon. Gotta love a vacation getaway gents!

(06-18-2020 07:29 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Good morning Bearcat Banter! Just now waking up here at Ocean Isle Beach, NC. Sunny blue sky. Ocean breeze cranked up. Our balcony is less than 100 yards from the breakers. Plenty of room on the beach to maintain social distancing. Most restaurants are open for business limiting the number of patrons inside. Since my wife had her chemo treatment last Friday we just did takeout. Gonna sip my coffee and soon pack up for the beach. On the agenda for today: relax in beach chair. Nap. Relax in beach chair. Watch waves, birds, people. Stroll in water. Pick up a few shells. Nap. Read book. Nap. Ok, you get the picture. No social unrest here. No COVID-19 on the beach. Just enjoying God's great ocean and blue sky. Liberating and mental/emotional recharging at its finest. Topped off our first night with some Woodford Reserve bourbon. Gotta love a vacation getaway gents!

No better way to vacation. Enjoy.

(06-16-2020 04:14 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  How about this, 116000 people have died. That is a lot.

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Yes, it's a lot.

But it's not a catastrophic amount. The April peak of 18 deaths per 100,000 Americans was lower than the monthly peak rate of every single flu season before 1970. Before 1945, the average flu peak death rate was 3 times the coronavirus peak.

Trying to make it sound like a catastrophic amount does the opposite of your intended effect. It invites ridicule of the very cause you're promoting.

When you hear that 66% of Cleveland residents are functionally illiterate, or that 40% of Americans can't find the United States on a map, does this make you want to donate to solve the problem, or does it make you distrust the nonprofit that is obviously full of liars?

But the comparison to the flu is actually more misleading. 100,000 people died of the virus in 2 months. Flu season is much longer. Further, we took unprecendented measures to stem the spread of the virus and it was still significantly deadlier than the flu. As I stated elsehwere, 100,000 deaths/2 months is about how many people die from ALL FORMS of cancer. Meaning that even with insane levels of protection, the Coronavirus was still as deadly as one of our greatest health afflictions.

So, yes, other things cause a lot of death too. But, given the circumstances, 100,000 deaths in 2 months is very, very alarming.

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(06-18-2020 12:00 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  But the comparison to the flu is actually more misleading. 100,000 people died of the virus in 2 months. Flu season is much longer. Further, we took unprecendented measures to stem the spread of the virus and it was still significantly deadlier than the flu. As I stated elsehwere, 100,000 deaths/2 months is about how many people die from ALL FORMS of cancer. Meaning that even with insane levels of protection, the Coronavirus was still as deadly as one of our greatest health afflictions.

So, yes, other things cause a lot of death too. But, given the circumstances, 100,000 deaths in 2 months is very, very alarming.

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Look, even if it was 10 times what the modern flu is (which it's not), that still not a catastrophic number.

Ckeck out figure 1-b.
The average monthly deaths due to the flu for the entire decade of the 1930s was over 28 deaths per 100,000 per month.

That's 120 months in a row that are worse than April 2020 (18 deaths per 100,000 per month) and more than 3 times higher than May 2020 (8.9 deaths per 100,000 per month).

And none of those years was considered a pandemic.

And the flu wasn't the only major disease back then. Tuberculosis was deadlier than the flu, and there was also polio, measles, mumps, diptheria, and other diseases that mostly attacked kids.

I'm not saying we should go back to that era. Just that we need some perspective about how big the numbers really are.

Wait, why would you compare it to the flu in the 1930s and not the flu in the 2010s?

That doesn't make any sense.

In 2019, there were between 24,000-62,000 deaths from the flu in the entire year.

In 2020, Covid 19 killed nearly 100,000 people from mid-march to mid-May.

In 2019, we had a vaccine for the flu, but didn't lock down.

In 2020, we had no vaccine, but did lock down.

In 2019, 600,000 died from cancer in a year.

In 2020, we had a 2 month period that was just as deadly (god willing the summer months remain hopeful and a second wave doesn't hurt us this fall)

I'm not saying the coronavirus is the deadliest threat in history, but it's comparable to some of our most deadly diseases and some of our deadliest wars as far aa total casulities go.

You can make your own interpretations as far aa what that means for repopening/lockdowns, whatever. But I'm really failing to see how it's a controversial point that 100,000 victims in 2 months is a lot.

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