What will be the changes this pandemic brings? Long term, I believe there will be changes in retail, office and education.

Retail will be immediate. A number of retailers will collapse, malls will close and shopping will be much more limited in person. The pandemic has gotten people used to ordering online who weren't doing it much before. It will become the norm starting immediately. Job losses in the retail sector will be massive.

Office will have a lot of changes. Some studies have shown people working at home to be less productive, so many companies have been discouraging tele-working. The pandemic has given managers more experience with it, new tools and for workers, an appreciation. Even controlling managers will be forced to be more flexible, not the least due to the lack of company loyalty of Xers and Millenials and the phone permanently glued to hand Generation Z. Companies will focus on less real estate and utility costs. Offices are already gone for all but top execs. Now a lot of offices will go to bullpens with first come, first served cubes. 2 to 4 day weeks in the office will be common with the rest from home. The 9/80 and Fridays off from the 90s have virtually disappeared, but telework will come back with a force.

Education will be much more gradual. Education is a massive bureaucracy. K-12 won't change much. However in higher education, online schools will continue to grow and eventually start to crush small privates and regional publics. The elite privates will be fine. The elite publics won't change much except that those 300 person freshman seminars will probably be online. But the smaller schools will suffer. Legislatures will wonder why they need colleges all over when they can do online classes. So the smaller regional publics will get squeezed and eventually consolidated.

Thoughts?

1) If you can't produce you are fired
2) Most stay at home former office people won't be productive
3) Former retail spaces will come back
4) Major universities are government run with massive debt, they can't indoctrinate little marxists
without putting students in debt.

Airlines and to a lesser extent hotels. Businesses will start to realize the face-time with a client isn’t always necessary. When it is, cars will get you where you need to go. A large chunk of the dollars made by legacy carriers comes from their international routes. As the push to tighten supply chains ramps up those that do travel for business will not being going to Asia. The airlines that invested in wide bodies are going to have some super expensive paperweights.

With all the people that lost their jobs because of Covid there will be a lot like a home buyers market, a business hiring market where they can choose the bestest (sic) people to their liking because of what happened to the economy. There's a whole lot of unemployed out there and it will take a long while for it to return to the one we had only months ago. I hope we get the jobs that were being given to the Chinese and that those businesses return to their homeland.

I expect the people willing to travel and make those face-to-face meetings will make more sales and more profit.

If that happens, it drives things back to the way they were.

(05-05-2020 08:22 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  Airlines and to a lesser extent hotels. Businesses will start to realize the face-time with a client isn’t always necessary. When it is, cars will get you where you need to go. A large chunk of the dollars made by legacy carriers comes from their international routes. As the push to tighten supply chains ramps up those that do travel for business will not being going to Asia. The airlines that invested in wide bodies are going to have some super expensive paperweights.

I think you're right there. Businesses will cut travel as well as office space.

It's a good time to invest in a really high-tech drive-in movie theater. I went to one in New Braunfels (or near there) a couple of summers ago in Texas and was shocked how pleasant it was, even when it was easily 95 or so during the day. You just need better video and audio, but once that happens, I think they'll do super business in our new social distancing world.

(05-05-2020 08:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-05-2020 08:22 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  Airlines and to a lesser extent hotels. Businesses will start to realize the face-time with a client isn’t always necessary. When it is, cars will get you where you need to go. A large chunk of the dollars made by legacy carriers comes from their international routes. As the push to tighten supply chains ramps up those that do travel for business will not being going to Asia. The airlines that invested in wide bodies are going to have some super expensive paperweights.

I think you're right there. Businesses will cut travel as well as office space.

Regarding office space no. This was predicted with the dot.com era. Employers have no control over employees at home.

(05-05-2020 09:24 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  It's a good time to invest in a really high-tech drive-in movie theater. I went to one in New Braunfels (or near there) a couple of summers ago in Texas and was shocked how pleasant it was, even when it was easily 95 or so during the day. You just need better video and audio, but once that happens, I think they'll do super business in our new social distancing world.

Ah, Drive In Theaters, I have such sweet memories of them. Ha, ha, y'all got a dirty mind. I loved them because I could sit outside in my truck bed and snack and drink beer and all was alright. The kids playing on the swings and other stuff next to the concessions. Cool El Paso nights with the family. I'm all for that.

Karens will be more Karen. The rest of us will get on with life. Note to the brain trust that is social media: never name anything "new".

(05-05-2020 09:30 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(05-05-2020 08:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-05-2020 08:22 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  Airlines and to a lesser extent hotels. Businesses will start to realize the face-time with a client isn’t always necessary. When it is, cars will get you where you need to go. A large chunk of the dollars made by legacy carriers comes from their international routes. As the push to tighten supply chains ramps up those that do travel for business will not being going to Asia. The airlines that invested in wide bodies are going to have some super expensive paperweights.

I think you're right there. Businesses will cut travel as well as office space.

Regarding office space no. This was predicted with the dot.com era. Employers have no control over employees at home.

Maybe the real opportunity here is in generic office space.

Someone walks in to their little office. The systems in the office clock them in and out. Their internet access is secure and logged. Desk, chair, break room, bathroom, big screen for meetings, maybe an electronic white board, etc is all there.

They put all their crap in their computer bag and go home at the end of the day. If they don't need to go to an office the next day they don't. If they need one everyday they lease it. If they need a storage locker or closet, they lease that too.

Commute times shrink. The employee is now in a monitored environment away from distractions. If they go to work remote, they rent the same facility from Claw's Office Franchises in their new work locale.

Investors?

(05-05-2020 10:05 PM)Claw Wrote:  

(05-05-2020 09:30 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(05-05-2020 08:57 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-05-2020 08:22 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  Airlines and to a lesser extent hotels. Businesses will start to realize the face-time with a client isn’t always necessary. When it is, cars will get you where you need to go. A large chunk of the dollars made by legacy carriers comes from their international routes. As the push to tighten supply chains ramps up those that do travel for business will not being going to Asia. The airlines that invested in wide bodies are going to have some super expensive paperweights.

I think you're right there. Businesses will cut travel as well as office space.

Regarding office space no. This was predicted with the dot.com era. Employers have no control over employees at home.

Maybe the real opportunity here is in generic office space.

Someone walks in to their little office. The systems in the office clock them in and out. Their internet access is secure and logged. Desk, chair, break room, bathroom, big screen for meetings, maybe an electronic white board, etc is all there.

They put all their crap in their computer bag and go home at the end of the day. If they don't need to go to an office the next day they don't. If they need one everyday they lease it. If they need a storage locker or closet, they lease that too.

Commute times shrink. The employee is now in a monitored environment away from distractions. If they go to work remote, they rent the same facility from Claw's Office Franchises in their new work locale.

Investors?

Already done. That was the dot.com. hotel tele commute thing. People need human interaction with goal oriented teams. The entire interaction human collaboration model doesn't work and will never work if you don't interact with humans daily. Why exist then? The entire purpose of life is human interaction on a daily basis.

(05-05-2020 07:33 PM)bullet Wrote:  What will be the changes this pandemic brings? Long term, I believe there will be changes in retail, office and education.

Retail will be immediate. A number of retailers will collapse, malls will close and shopping will be much more limited in person. The pandemic has gotten people used to ordering online who weren't doing it much before. It will become the norm starting immediately. Job losses in the retail sector will be massive.

Office will have a lot of changes. Some studies have shown people working at home to be less productive, so many companies have been discouraging tele-working. The pandemic has given managers more experience with it, new tools and for workers, an appreciation. Even controlling managers will be forced to be more flexible, not the least due to the lack of company loyalty of Xers and Millenials and the phone permanently glued to hand Generation Z. Companies will focus on less real estate and utility costs. Offices are already gone for all but top execs. Now a lot of offices will go to bullpens with first come, first served cubes. 2 to 4 day weeks in the office will be common with the rest from home. The 9/80 and Fridays off from the 90s have virtually disappeared, but telework will come back with a force.

Education will be much more gradual. Education is a massive bureaucracy. K-12 won't change much. However in higher education, online schools will continue to grow and eventually start to crush small privates and regional publics. The elite privates will be fine. The elite publics won't change much except that those 300 person freshman seminars will probably be online. But the smaller schools will suffer. Legislatures will wonder why they need colleges all over when they can do online classes. So the smaller regional publics will get squeezed and eventually consolidated.

Thoughts?

Small private colleges and regional public universities that can survive the short term will likely be fine. Small private colleges in particular serve a much different population than most who are seeking an online education.

Online education will grow because of this but it won’t be at the expense or the small liberal arts schools. Students that want that experience will still seek it out. That is until about 2025-2026 when demographics start looking really bleak for higher ed. The current crisis will likely setup a lot of schools to fail very quickly once the mid twenties hit and the high school to college pipeline starts drying up.

Not much. Tired of this idea that is something humans have never faced before.

(05-06-2020 12:45 AM)etsuandpurdue3 Wrote:  Not much. Tired of this idea that is something humans have never faced before.

Bravo to this. It's something about people today that they long to be part of some great struggle. My thought is that life is so easy now that they have to exaggerate issues in order to feel like they've accomplished something. When you call people heroes for staying home and laying on their couch you know you have jumped the shark on the definition of a hero.

I'm only 55, which I don't consider all that old. Like almost everyone my age, I remember having one car in the family, no air conditioning, one black and white TV in the house, only getting new clothes at the start of the school year, never eating out. People nowadays call that living in poverty, but we were very middle class. The whole view of what real hardship is has pretty much disappeared for most Americans.

People will wear face masks at work and learn to bow like they do in Asia instead of shaking hands.

(05-05-2020 07:33 PM)bullet Wrote:  What will be the changes this pandemic brings? Long term, I believe there will be changes in retail, office and education.

Retail will be immediate. A number of retailers will collapse, malls will close and shopping will be much more limited in person. The pandemic has gotten people used to ordering online who weren't doing it much before. It will become the norm starting immediately. Job losses in the retail sector will be massive.

Office will have a lot of changes. Some studies have shown people working at home to be less productive, so many companies have been discouraging tele-working. The pandemic has given managers more experience with it, new tools and for workers, an appreciation. Even controlling managers will be forced to be more flexible, not the least due to the lack of company loyalty of Xers and Millenials and the phone permanently glued to hand Generation Z. Companies will focus on less real estate and utility costs. Offices are already gone for all but top execs. Now a lot of offices will go to bullpens with first come, first served cubes. 2 to 4 day weeks in the office will be common with the rest from home. The 9/80 and Fridays off from the 90s have virtually disappeared, but telework will come back with a force.

Education will be much more gradual. Education is a massive bureaucracy. K-12 won't change much. However in higher education, online schools will continue to grow and eventually start to crush small privates and regional publics. The elite privates will be fine. The elite publics won't change much except that those 300 person freshman seminars will probably be online. But the smaller schools will suffer. Legislatures will wonder why they need colleges all over when they can do online classes. So the smaller regional publics will get squeezed and eventually consolidated.

Thoughts?

What will vanish is brick and mortar grocery stores as we know them. Farmer's markets will be there for those who must pick their own produce out, but most of the overhead in groceries is in display. It's cheaper to warehouse by far, and stockers will be replaced by pickers and check out will be replaced by packers and drivers will be hired out of the savings and you'll be able to pick your delivery times fairly accurately.

The cubicle will be replaced by work at home and management of that will be very simple. Produce and keep your job, fail to produce and lose it. Where companies will really benefit however is in the reduction of the low level management which in itself wasn't that productive but was costly. Programs can monitor both the quality and the productivity of work at home employees.

What this will eventually do (as it takes about 100 years to reclaim paved land, work the toxins out of the soil, and make it arable again, is to increase the amount of space for food production.

Hopefully people will move more into earth berm homes and underground housing where the ground permits. These save 30% on construction costs (trim work is expensive) and the need to heat and cool them is practically nil. Lighting, double walled insulation for moisture protection, and a good sprinkler system and evacuation outlets for safety are all that is really needed. It also cuts way down on the need for insurance due to storm and wind damage, hail, and other such phenomena.

The biggest reason we've not made these moves already was the recalcitrance of existing industries and their lobby with Congress. Stay at home workers don't need transportation or fuel. So the automotive and O&G industry didn't like that approach. Home builders like expensive frills and Allstate and State Farms like their good hands in our pockets for storm damage to homes and auto insurance.

I really don't see permanent job loss. People will be necessary to pick, pack and deliver no matter what.

Bed and breakfast type lodging will bite more into hotel businesses because they will have more consistent sanitizing or they'll go out of business.

Teleconference will become the norm and air travel will decline and that's not necessarily a bad thing either. When you do need to fly more of the experience will be based on comfort and the cost will be more, but feeling like a sardine in a can with wings will be an experience that will likely end.

These structural changes will help to safeguard against the spread of novel viruses in the future and that in itself will be a strategic improvement. We have been way to lax and way to vulnerable.

The Baby Boom is over and almost dead and buried. We don't need all of the colleges and universities we have and online learning will help people needing basic skills for low to mid level jobs and Universities will be for professional degrees within a few decades.

We have all of the schools we have now as a direct result of the GI Bill following WWII and the Baby Boom, kept alive by Pell Grants and College Loans, and the children of the Boomers. Contraction was going to occur COVID19 or not.

Maybe, just maybe, kids today will once again learn to raise chickens, clean eggs, and grow their own vegetables. We'll see, but that alone would give them a broader and better education than 12 years of propaganda and fear mongering. Heck, they may even learn how to tug a teat for milk.

(05-06-2020 05:36 AM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  People will wear face masks at work and learn to bow like they do in Asia instead of shaking hands.

nuts zongo says, "phyuck yiu!"

My employer already sent the email on Monday that they will be bringing in The Bob’s to “optimize” our organization going forward. I wanted to send the CEO an email to tell him “ Good luck with your layoffs, all right? I hope your firings go really well.”

(05-06-2020 06:23 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  My employer already sent the email on Monday that they will be bringing in The Bob’s to “optimize” our organization going forward. I wanted to send the CEO an email to tell him “ Good luck with your layoffs, all right? I hope your firings go really well.”

downsizing was a given....

essential vs. non.....

keep the ones that can, jack up their salary with a pittance vs. overloading responsibility, and toss the rest out on their arse....

yep, that's pretty much the way that goes down...

corpshite 'murica replaces me with 3 positions.....hence, da finga to HR when he stated, "you're not going to give me an exit interview, are ya?!"

"yeah man, I am."



edit: the only difference is I left their dickbrained arses on muh terms....