(04-30-2020 08:15 AM)Centdukesfan Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 07:52 AM)bjk3047 Wrote:  The inherent risk that society has historically assumed, as a whole, when merely existing around other people, has been near 0. That has remained constant, in a general sense, for quite some time. In a matter of a few weeks, that has dramatically changed.

So we're going to pretend that communicable, deadly diseases have never been a thing until this year? You didnt stop working or going ANYWHERE amidst the 2017-2018 flu season because the risk of spreading it to my newborn or your grandpa? 80,000 people died of it that year.

This is the biggest whiff in data science, epidemiology and public policy in modern history. Made worse by miserable politics and a media that can't control itself. The sooner we all figure this out, the better.

Well so far 61,000 people have died in roughly 1/3 of the time with all the social distancing and shutdown guidelines in place. Still dont understand how people compare this to the flu and then state numbers that point to the contrary or how people cant fathom that some disease can be more infectious than the common flu.

I am for opening up certain things with common sense. NJ, NY, CT are opening up parks, golf courses and public areas which i think is a good thing. Companies are slowly putting together plans to open back up middle of may to june in NYC in limited capacity. Construction will be starting back up around may 15 with contractors following CDC guidelines.

The only "whiff" has been politicians allowing this to get to where it is now. The USA is by and large the world leader in technology and medical research and yet we are by far the most affected country, that should be your biggest gripe in the whole situation. Not that you are being asked to stay home

I enjoy comparisons because that's how we understand things - by putting them up against things we understand. Compare away!

(04-30-2020 08:30 AM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  This has been another episode of YOU ARE WRONG AND I AM RIGHT by BJK

Sorry, I forgot how to math...

Can anyone tell me what percentage 57,505/1,005,147 is?

If you assume the number of positive tests are the only people that have been infected, then yes, that math would make sense.

However, the number of people that have contracted this that are totally asymptomatic seems to be hovering around 60 percent - maybe more. Randomized antibody tests of populations in LA, SF, NY, Boston etc have pretty consistent findings on this. One study suggests over 25% of new york has already been through this and have developed antibodies. Many were infected far before the stay at home orders. We also have not overwhelmed the hospital systems anywhere in America.

Some local data for you in Alexandria virginia. A clinic is doing antibody tests, and out of 800 people who have been tested, 80 have the IgG antibody that reflects a recovery after an infection. Of those, 68 were totally asymptomatic.

Im not going to begrudge anyone for making the decision to close down cities, particularly new york and other major metropolitan areas. This is still a very serious disease that we need to protect segments of the population from. However, with the presentation of new data from antibody studies, studies showing that children likely cannot infect adults, and that people under 65 and without preexisting conditions have an insanely low risk of dying from this disease, our governments HAVE to pivot and avoid these insane stay at home orders for healthy people indefinitely. 30 million Americans are out of work right now. 30 million! Good on Georgia and Alabama, who have made sensible plans to reopen their economies. I can only hope virginia follows suit as soon as humanly possible.

One note about antibody tests...there's absolutely no regulation on them at this point and they've all been fast tracked. The results could vary widely depending on which test they're using. It's also not even conclusive whether having said antibodies will protect you from getting it again. I was originally super excited about antibody testing, then the more information that's come out the less enthusiastic I've become about them. It's clear at this point that this pandemic isn't going away in the US anytime soon, antibody tests or not. Remdesivir luckily may help, but again...it's still in early trial stage.

Even if there are 10x more people that have it but haven't been tested...that's still a 0.5% fatality rate. That's still really really bad. This is already the worst pandemic in the last half century and that's with most states at least trying to lockdown...and it's not close to being done yet. I would be surprised if the 2k deaths/day doesn't continue for the next month or two, especially as things open back up.

However, I do agree that we need to gradually start [intelligently] reopening things. Certain services should start to reopen soon. What's going to hurt the worst isn't just the reopening, it's all the idiots who are still taking zero precautions or are trying, but have no idea what they're doing. How in the world we have to sit through the same safety spiel and demonstration every time we get on a plane, but from what I've seen there has yet to be an actual demonstration in the briefings of HOW to use a facemask/covering and HOW to use gloves is mind-blowing. If we can start a phased reopening, I think that's fine, at least in some states.

I think you're right about the prick tests for the antibody, lots of false positive and negative reports on those, but the full bloodwork tests are considered reliable.

I got blood drawn yesterday to be reviewed by LabCorp in the next week. Ive had contact a buddy who went through the virus in the late January early February timeframe. Or at least that's what his bloodwork indicated. He was totally asymptomatic.

I think there is some concern about it infection and recovery results in immunity, but it seems like it's pretty inconclusive, and I'd like to know when the studies are conclusive about my status as immune.

The first brick has fallen -

Nascar to run 4 cup events in 11 days beginning May 17th. (Thanks OJF!)

Let's see who's next? Baseball?

It will be interesting to see if the reactions will be as before if/when an athelete comes down with the virus.

(04-30-2020 08:31 AM)bjk3047 Wrote:  Man, talk about statistical whiffs.

"The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. These coefficients are based on assumptions of how many cases, hospitalizations, and deaths they believe went unreported. In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts.

Can we accurately compare the toll of the flu to the toll of the coronavirus pandemic? To do this, we have to compare counted deaths to counted deaths, not counted deaths to wildly inflated statistical estimates. If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people than seasonal flu. In other words, the coronavirus is not anything like the flu: It is much, much worse."

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/obs...o-oranges/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how...imates.htm

So the CDC's yearly flu death estimates are now 'wildly inflated' based on what? They don't fit your narrative? Doctors don't even test for the flu in many cases where it's suspected, so of course they have to use estimates. Since 2010 the CDC has estimated between 12,000 and 79,000 flu deaths each flu season (last 2 seasons 79k and 61k).
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu...8-2019.htm

Also in the revision to the CDC's confirmed C virus death count (currently 60,057) they are including thousands of probables that are not confirmed by lab testing.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nco...in-us.html

(04-30-2020 02:28 PM)Dukester Wrote:  The first brick has fallen -

Nascar to run 4 cup events in 11 days beginning May 17th. (Thanks OJF!)

Let's see who's next? Baseball?

It will be interesting to see if the reactions will be as before if/when an athelete comes down with the virus.

Bout time..

(04-30-2020 08:42 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 08:15 AM)Centdukesfan Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 07:52 AM)bjk3047 Wrote:  The inherent risk that society has historically assumed, as a whole, when merely existing around other people, has been near 0. That has remained constant, in a general sense, for quite some time. In a matter of a few weeks, that has dramatically changed.

So we're going to pretend that communicable, deadly diseases have never been a thing until this year? You didnt stop working or going ANYWHERE amidst the 2017-2018 flu season because the risk of spreading it to my newborn or your grandpa? 80,000 people died of it that year.

This is the biggest whiff in data science, epidemiology and public policy in modern history. Made worse by miserable politics and a media that can't control itself. The sooner we all figure this out, the better.

Well so far 61,000 people have died in roughly 1/3 of the time with all the social distancing and shutdown guidelines in place. Still dont understand how people compare this to the flu and then state numbers that point to the contrary or how people cant fathom that some disease can be more infectious than the common flu.

Because people/groups aren't using consistent data. The actuaries use certain data, the doctors use something else, and the politicians use their own data experts. None are paying any attention to the others, yet. It's a ***** competition. It's like that Trump expert that says the virus WILL RETURN in fall but has no data to support such a statement. Flue we have history to look back on, Covid we don't have that.

A simple example (and true) Back in early Feb. grandma's family was told to expect she would pass away by May. I believe she was 83 with a DNR. She got the virus late Feb in a nursing home and died a week later. Her death is being counted as a Covid statistic. If Covid didn't exist but the same happened because of the Flu, her death would have been classified as a natural cause. So arguing over Covid vs. Flu is kind of pointless but looking at the hospitalizations is much better indicator or where we are headed.

(04-30-2020 03:34 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 02:28 PM)Dukester Wrote:  The first brick has fallen -

Nascar to run 4 cup events in 11 days beginning May 17th. (Thanks OJF!)

Let's see who's next? Baseball?

It will be interesting to see if the reactions will be as before if/when an athelete comes down with the virus.

Bout time..

Hell right

Texas A&M intends to reopen for the fall semester and play fall football.

(04-30-2020 03:34 PM)RamDawg Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 08:42 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 08:15 AM)Centdukesfan Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 07:52 AM)bjk3047 Wrote:  The inherent risk that society has historically assumed, as a whole, when merely existing around other people, has been near 0. That has remained constant, in a general sense, for quite some time. In a matter of a few weeks, that has dramatically changed.

So we're going to pretend that communicable, deadly diseases have never been a thing until this year? You didnt stop working or going ANYWHERE amidst the 2017-2018 flu season because the risk of spreading it to my newborn or your grandpa? 80,000 people died of it that year.

This is the biggest whiff in data science, epidemiology and public policy in modern history. Made worse by miserable politics and a media that can't control itself. The sooner we all figure this out, the better.

Well so far 61,000 people have died in roughly 1/3 of the time with all the social distancing and shutdown guidelines in place. Still dont understand how people compare this to the flu and then state numbers that point to the contrary or how people cant fathom that some disease can be more infectious than the common flu.

Because people/groups aren't using consistent data. The actuaries use certain data, the doctors use something else, and the politicians use their own data experts. None are paying any attention to the others, yet. It's a ***** competition. It's like that Trump expert that says the virus WILL RETURN in fall but has no data to support such a statement. Flue we have history to look back on, Covid we don't have that.

A simple example (and true) Back in early Feb. grandma's family was told to expect she would pass away by May. I believe she was 83 with a DNR. She got the virus late Feb in a nursing home and died a week later. Her death is being counted as a Covid statistic. If Covid didn't exist but the same happened because of the Flu, her death would have been classified as a natural cause. So arguing over Covid vs. Flu is kind of pointless but looking at the hospitalizations is much better indicator or where we are headed.

You are referring to Dr. Fauci as that “Trump expert”?

Fauci isn’t just a “Trump” expert...he’s the leading U.S. expert on the research, prevention, diagnosis and treatment of infectious diseases. He’s the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and has been so since 1984. During that time he has served six presidents, and overseen research and solutions that have effectively responded to HIV/AIDS, Ebola and the Zika virus. He’s chief of NIAID’s Immunoregulation Laboratory which leads the world in research on pathogenesis and treatment of immune-mediated and infectious diseases.

When Fauci speaks about COVID-19 I think we should all pay attention and listen. And when Fauci says the contagion will be here in the Fall I don’t think he’s sharing that thought because he’s pulling information out of his arse.

But yeah...think of him as that “Trump expert”.

Here’s a bit of a mind bender ... WHO says Sweden is a “model” to follow

https://nypost.com/2020/04/29/who-lauds-...-lockdown/

(04-30-2020 08:39 AM)bjk3047 Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 08:30 AM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  This has been another episode of YOU ARE WRONG AND I AM RIGHT by BJK

You are not wrong, by BJK.

I just get fired up when people say things that are incompatible with logic and reason. Lot of folks have come out of the woodwork during the last few weeks to show their bare, hacky, partisan asses, and I kind of can't help myself.

Have you looked in a mirror lately?

(04-30-2020 03:34 PM)RamDawg Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 08:42 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 08:15 AM)Centdukesfan Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 07:52 AM)bjk3047 Wrote:  The inherent risk that society has historically assumed, as a whole, when merely existing around other people, has been near 0. That has remained constant, in a general sense, for quite some time. In a matter of a few weeks, that has dramatically changed.

So we're going to pretend that communicable, deadly diseases have never been a thing until this year? You didnt stop working or going ANYWHERE amidst the 2017-2018 flu season because the risk of spreading it to my newborn or your grandpa? 80,000 people died of it that year.

This is the biggest whiff in data science, epidemiology and public policy in modern history. Made worse by miserable politics and a media that can't control itself. The sooner we all figure this out, the better.

Well so far 61,000 people have died in roughly 1/3 of the time with all the social distancing and shutdown guidelines in place. Still dont understand how people compare this to the flu and then state numbers that point to the contrary or how people cant fathom that some disease can be more infectious than the common flu.

Because people/groups aren't using consistent data. The actuaries use certain data, the doctors use something else, and the politicians use their own data experts. None are paying any attention to the others, yet. It's a ***** competition. It's like that Trump expert that says the virus WILL RETURN in fall but has no data to support such a statement. Flue we have history to look back on, Covid we don't have that.

A simple example (and true) Back in early Feb. grandma's family was told to expect she would pass away by May. I believe she was 83 with a DNR. She got the virus late Feb in a nursing home and died a week later. Her death is being counted as a Covid statistic. If Covid didn't exist but the same happened because of the Flu, her death would have been classified as a natural cause. So arguing over Covid vs. Flu is kind of pointless but looking at the hospitalizations is much better indicator or where we are headed.

Truth. Docs are exposing reporting discrepancies across the country. Many deaths not caused by COVID are being attributed to COVID. This is being done to provide cover for the fearmongers, IMO. They must justify the hysteria.

(05-01-2020 07:50 AM)Purple Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 03:34 PM)RamDawg Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 08:42 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 08:15 AM)Centdukesfan Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 07:52 AM)bjk3047 Wrote:  The inherent risk that society has historically assumed, as a whole, when merely existing around other people, has been near 0. That has remained constant, in a general sense, for quite some time. In a matter of a few weeks, that has dramatically changed.

So we're going to pretend that communicable, deadly diseases have never been a thing until this year? You didnt stop working or going ANYWHERE amidst the 2017-2018 flu season because the risk of spreading it to my newborn or your grandpa? 80,000 people died of it that year.

This is the biggest whiff in data science, epidemiology and public policy in modern history. Made worse by miserable politics and a media that can't control itself. The sooner we all figure this out, the better.

Well so far 61,000 people have died in roughly 1/3 of the time with all the social distancing and shutdown guidelines in place. Still dont understand how people compare this to the flu and then state numbers that point to the contrary or how people cant fathom that some disease can be more infectious than the common flu.

Because people/groups aren't using consistent data. The actuaries use certain data, the doctors use something else, and the politicians use their own data experts. None are paying any attention to the others, yet. It's a ***** competition. It's like that Trump expert that says the virus WILL RETURN in fall but has no data to support such a statement. Flue we have history to look back on, Covid we don't have that.

A simple example (and true) Back in early Feb. grandma's family was told to expect she would pass away by May. I believe she was 83 with a DNR. She got the virus late Feb in a nursing home and died a week later. Her death is being counted as a Covid statistic. If Covid didn't exist but the same happened because of the Flu, her death would have been classified as a natural cause. So arguing over Covid vs. Flu is kind of pointless but looking at the hospitalizations is much better indicator or where we are headed.

Truth. Docs are exposing reporting discrepancies across the country. Many deaths not caused by COVID are being attributed to COVID. This is being done to provide cover for the fearmongers, IMO. They must justify the hysteria.

It's a fake international Hoax made up by fearmongers. I'm going to guess I know your favorite cable station.

Obviously this could easily be fixed by injecting disinfectant into everyone, but no, the fearmongers just want the hysteria to continue.

(05-01-2020 08:16 AM)Dukester Wrote:  

(05-01-2020 07:50 AM)Purple Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 03:34 PM)RamDawg Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 08:42 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 08:15 AM)Centdukesfan Wrote:  So we're going to pretend that communicable, deadly diseases have never been a thing until this year? You didnt stop working or going ANYWHERE amidst the 2017-2018 flu season because the risk of spreading it to my newborn or your grandpa? 80,000 people died of it that year.

This is the biggest whiff in data science, epidemiology and public policy in modern history. Made worse by miserable politics and a media that can't control itself. The sooner we all figure this out, the better.

Well so far 61,000 people have died in roughly 1/3 of the time with all the social distancing and shutdown guidelines in place. Still dont understand how people compare this to the flu and then state numbers that point to the contrary or how people cant fathom that some disease can be more infectious than the common flu.

Because people/groups aren't using consistent data. The actuaries use certain data, the doctors use something else, and the politicians use their own data experts. None are paying any attention to the others, yet. It's a ***** competition. It's like that Trump expert that says the virus WILL RETURN in fall but has no data to support such a statement. Flue we have history to look back on, Covid we don't have that.

A simple example (and true) Back in early Feb. grandma's family was told to expect she would pass away by May. I believe she was 83 with a DNR. She got the virus late Feb in a nursing home and died a week later. Her death is being counted as a Covid statistic. If Covid didn't exist but the same happened because of the Flu, her death would have been classified as a natural cause. So arguing over Covid vs. Flu is kind of pointless but looking at the hospitalizations is much better indicator or where we are headed.

Truth. Docs are exposing reporting discrepancies across the country. Many deaths not caused by COVID are being attributed to COVID. This is being done to provide cover for the fearmongers, IMO. They must justify the hysteria.

It's a fake international Hoax made up by fearmongers. I'm going to guess I know your favorite cable station.

It isn't Fox, Mr. MSNBC guy. I haven't watched Fox since August 6, 2015 (I'm sure you can figure that out). Thanks for being so wrong.... AGAIN!

The fact is I don't watch television at all.

Why don't you research a little bit? Why not listen to the docs on the front lines instead of gulping the swill the media talking heads are spoon-feeding you?

(05-01-2020 07:50 AM)Purple Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 03:34 PM)RamDawg Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 08:42 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 08:15 AM)Centdukesfan Wrote:  

(04-30-2020 07:52 AM)bjk3047 Wrote:  The inherent risk that society has historically assumed, as a whole, when merely existing around other people, has been near 0. That has remained constant, in a general sense, for quite some time. In a matter of a few weeks, that has dramatically changed.

So we're going to pretend that communicable, deadly diseases have never been a thing until this year? You didnt stop working or going ANYWHERE amidst the 2017-2018 flu season because the risk of spreading it to my newborn or your grandpa? 80,000 people died of it that year.

This is the biggest whiff in data science, epidemiology and public policy in modern history. Made worse by miserable politics and a media that can't control itself. The sooner we all figure this out, the better.

Well so far 61,000 people have died in roughly 1/3 of the time with all the social distancing and shutdown guidelines in place. Still dont understand how people compare this to the flu and then state numbers that point to the contrary or how people cant fathom that some disease can be more infectious than the common flu.

Because people/groups aren't using consistent data. The actuaries use certain data, the doctors use something else, and the politicians use their own data experts. None are paying any attention to the others, yet. It's a ***** competition. It's like that Trump expert that says the virus WILL RETURN in fall but has no data to support such a statement. Flue we have history to look back on, Covid we don't have that.

A simple example (and true) Back in early Feb. grandma's family was told to expect she would pass away by May. I believe she was 83 with a DNR. She got the virus late Feb in a nursing home and died a week later. Her death is being counted as a Covid statistic. If Covid didn't exist but the same happened because of the Flu, her death would have been classified as a natural cause. So arguing over Covid vs. Flu is kind of pointless but looking at the hospitalizations is much better indicator or where we are headed.

Truth. Docs are exposing reporting discrepancies across the country. Many deaths not caused by COVID are being attributed to COVID. This is being done to provide cover for the fearmongers, IMO. They must justify the hysteria.

You’re entitled to believe whatever conspiracy theory you want, but this suggestion that COVID-19 deaths are being purposefully inflated is a talking point of the alt-right and unsubstantiated. If anything, virus related deaths may be substantially undercounted. We’ll know more in 18-24 months what the true count is when things settle down a bit. In the meantime stay safe.