What is a virus? song: "Your body can defend itself"

WHEN ARE WE GOING TO START TESTING HEALTHY PEOPLE FOR ANTIBODIES? If SK has it all figured out then test their citizens. Because it insults my intelligence to say this is a new virus and folks in the Far East, India and Russia haven't had this for years and worked up an immunity. As well as folks here.

https://www.amgreatness.com/2020/03/19/d...us-curves/

An argument based on a Stanford professor's analysis that it is an overreaction.

The theory is that the virus has been here and spiked already in January and February before we started measuring it, so the curves that are being presented overstate the increase dramatically.

(03-21-2020 11:42 AM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.amgreatness.com/2020/03/19/d...us-curves/

An argument based on a Stanford professor's analysis that it is an overreaction.

The theory is that the virus has been here and spiked already in January and February before we started measuring it, so the curves that are being presented overstate the increase dramatically.

One way or the other, we will likely eventually find out afterwards and the post-corona analysis is done. I'm on record as not being thrilled with the course taken, and still skeptical it is the best way to go. I do understand the concept of not wanting those who actually do get this and have a bad reaction to not overwhelm their local providers' limited equipment and beds. But this seems to reinforce what I have been saying many years...too many Americans think they have to run to doctors or hospitals for things they can and should take care of themselves, thus clogging the system for those who actually need more detailed care.

Our current government insurance model (ever since they passed medicare in the '60s) encourages this and promotes the ignorance of self-care that makes it worse. To the extent this situation and response makes us realize that what we think of today as "health insurance" is really an unworkable, over-bloated model that needs to be thoroughly re-examined and vastly scaled back, then I think this situation can help do some long-term good for America and its citizens. To wit: return health Insurance to being just that: Insurance ONLY for catastrophic things that an individual cannot handle on their own, and spread the risk of that; remove any and all regular and routine care, prohibiting those from being included in any health insurance policies and rule that all providers must post prices and lists of services publicly so people can comparison shop to drive prices down; relax rules limiting all providers to operate where and when they wish, as the markets dictate as long as properly licensed and regularly evaluated with continuing ed and re-certification (hmm, should require that for all public school teachers and college professors as well); allow US citizens only to hold separate health expense savings accounts that are tax advantaged and limited to use for health expenses, individually-owned, not by government or by corporations and fully portable so all will have the ability to have funds available for care at a reasonable price; prohibit group policies so the field is fair and level for all US citizens; allow insurance cos to compete across state lines nationally if they wish; eliminate any and all govt involvement in health price setting, remove Medicare requirements and let the private market compete no matter the age of individual.

(03-26-2020 01:32 PM)ECUGrad07 Wrote:  Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model

"Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000."

Soooooo Trump was initially right again, that this was not the big deal many were making it out to be? That most of us would be fine if we stayed calm and didn't give in to overreaction? That maybe it was a hoax (well, if the data was wrong and was put out there anyway, you have to wonder why--how good of science is it to be this wrong?

(03-26-2020 01:57 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Status of COVID-19
As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequ...f-covid-19

Ooops. Told ya so.

Artist: Depeche Mode
Album: Construction Time Again
Song: "Told You So"
August 23, 1983 Mute Records/Sire Records




Artist: Britney Spears
Album: Oops!... I Did It Again
Song: "Oops!... I Did It Again"
March 27, 2000 Jive Records




Artist: SNAP!
Album: World Power
Song: "Oops Up"
May 1, 1990 Logic Records

"Hard as Chinese math" apropos.

Over reaction or not, the last thing anyone wants to be accused of is not doing enough.

And that is why we are where we are in this. As some have mentioned already, only the history books will be able to deem current actions as too much too little or juuuust right.

(03-26-2020 02:24 PM)Eldonabe Wrote:  Over reaction or not, the last thing anyone wants to be accused of is not doing enough.

And that is why we are where we are in this. As some have mentioned already, only the history books will be able to deem current actions as too much too little or juuuust right.

Used to be more true....now with the far lefty's that write and teach most history in schools, I'm not as sure.

I think Trump's initial instincts were/are the correct ones. true it's also responsible for his hoot from the hip speaking style, which tends to grate at times, but as he said: he's been right an awful lot, and that makes the left $#it bricks. Hopefully, as more data comes in, it will be clear that everyone, or most everyone can get back to work and school, play ball, and we can just tend to the really sick like with regular flu.

So, out of 328 million people in the US we have so far 80,021 confirmed cases and that includes every state in the Union. I'd say we're making way too much about this virus especially since everyone says that we have 80,000 deaths from the flu alone every year. Why weren't we worried about all these people? With the WuHan we so far have 1,136 deaths. Wow, if we don't hurry we won't have any more people left. I'm not into math but just divide how many have died and the number of people in the WHOLE UNITED STATES!

Nice job media you have created a monster and now you're all Ps'ed off at Trump. Yeah, right, it's his fault.

(03-18-2020 08:58 AM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  I almost lost it at the office (yes I'm working in the office, you home working cowards!).. this nurse basically went on a rant about stupid people and c-19

lmmfao...

she's a big ol' chubbo 'stink' with ta-tas relative to when I'm in the field....

it would blow y'all's mind what I see almost every day.....that's what makes it so much fun....

(03-26-2020 04:23 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(03-18-2020 08:58 AM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  I almost lost it at the office (yes I'm working in the office, you home working cowards!).. this nurse basically went on a rant about stupid people and c-19

lmmfao...

she's a big ol' chubbo 'stink' with ta-tas relative to when I'm in the field....

it would blow y'all's mind what I see almost every day.....that's what makes it so much fun....

Yea, that’s pretty funny, but she’s spot on. It’s still relatively cool at night here, so when I run to the store (as needed, I mean we were nearly out of ketchup, come on THATS a damn necessity), I wear my long sleeve sweater shirt thing.

I’ve now mastered the pull sleeve over thumb, use keypad that way. See, can still teach an old dog!

Link to Dr. Deborah Birx’s assessment video (2:30) today on possible overreaction due to actual numbers not being close to matching what was originally predicted for COVID19:

https://news.yahoo.com/video/coronavirus...26004.html

Title: Coronavirus response coordinator questions report that had predicted 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. from the pandemic

According to Dr. Deborah Birx, part of the President’s team monitoring the coronavirus situation, “The predictions of the models don’t match the reality on the ground” that they are seeing. They are of course working to evaluate and ascertain why this is, but, as Dr. Birx points out in the attached link to the video, “We (the US) are about 5 times the size of Italy, so if we (the US) were Italy, Italy should have close to 400,000 deaths; they’re not close to achieving that.” Dr. Birx goes on to say that, “Models are models; we’re adapting now to the reality—there’s enough data now of the real experience of the coronavirus on the ground to really make these predictions much more sound,” which implies that perhaps they were initially overestimated, prompting an overreaction, which was my suspicion in some of my initial posts about this situation several weeks ago when folks were contemplating how to handle the situation.

Here again below is the previous information on the inaccuracy of the original models that created the panic; I look forward to a speedy and responsible re-evaluation of the reality versus the fiction so we may all return our children to schools and return ourselves to restoring what was for many a robust and successful economy which America can and should be proud of for all its citizens:


Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model (Downwards by a lot)

Link: https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiol...benshapiro

"Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000."



Status of COVID-19
As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

Link: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequ...f-covid-19



It is hard to know what to think about all of this. People watching the news can get the wrong impression, or get overly scared by all the breathless reporting by newspeople who want to make a name for themselves with their scoops. If the above information is in fact correct, then this Coronavirus would be less lethal than the regular, everyday flu we all have to deal with each and every year. I am grateful for those posters on this board who have provided better access to and more updated timing of the information about much of what may truly being going on with this situation. This is a great board, and a great group of folks contributing. Thank you all!

Per my post right above about the overreaction to this coronabug, here's a bit longer version of that video embedded here:




My, oh, my: Dr. Birx says over 1,000 to 2,000 Extra ventilators right now just in New York! But...but..MUH VEntilators! Not.
Extra ICU beds unused in new York right now.
No reason to expect 60 or 70% of people to get this in next 8 to 12 weeks as many media are breathlessly "reporting"---the real actual numbers do not suggest anywhere close to what media are saying. BUT, MUH Panic! MUH Epidemic!

Notice how in the above posted linked video Yahoo "news" chose to cut this important information out and not report it....things that make you go Hmmmm....

Artist: C+C Music Factory
Album: Gonna Make You Sweat
Song: "Things That Make You Go Hmmmm"
June 23, 1991 Columbia Records




Yeah, let's get back to work and treat those few individuals who actually have a problem but not kill our economy and destroy poor and middle class American's lives any longer over something less severe than normal flu. Maybe rethink the $2 trillion bailout (filled with pork for both sides) that we will have to pay back in some way eventually and send the bill to Pelosi, Schumer and Hilliary and they can be taxed extra for this nonsense, since they love taking money from rich millionaires so dang much--Put them in the po' house instead of us hard-working American citizens. Oh yeah, and PLAY BALL already, pitchers and catchers, report back immediately!

yeah, I know things seem worse than the Chinese government first let on, but the spending spree is very concerning. Inflation lurks around the corner, and may end up hurting and killing far more:

Trillions in coronavirus spending could explode deficits to World War Two levels

Quote:Altogether, deficit spending in the next two years could drive the national debt to around $29 trillion from an estimated $23.6 trillion right now. Previously the U.S. was not expected to reach that mark until 2025.

Just like firefighters don’t care how much water they use in putting out a fire, governments don’t fret about how much they spend to fight a once-in-a-lifetime crisis like a deadly global pandemic. Democrats and Republicans in Washington alike are virtually united in the belief that they should spend whatever they need to and worry about how to pay for the coronavirus bailout later.

To put deficits in perspective, economists like to measure them against the size of the economy based on gross domestic product. The federal budget deficit in the current fiscal year is set to easily exceed the post-World War Two record of 9.8% of gross domestic product in fiscal 2009.

Someday there will be a reckoning, economists say, but not for quite some time. “Fiscal deficits will rise sharply in the coming years,” said Agathe Demarais, global forecasting director at London-based Economist Intelligence Unit, but “another decade of austerity to curb mounting fiscal deficits might not be feasible politically or socially.”

If that's so then they won't need Bernie to further America down the uber-socialist pathway. I'm hunkerin' down at the ranch. Sanitizing, washing, et cetera (it's two words and neither has an "x" in it)... But something in my gut says that there has to be a better way to handle this than turning the govt. spending spigots on full blast.

(03-21-2020 09:07 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  WHEN ARE WE GOING TO START TESTING HEALTHY PEOPLE FOR ANTIBODIES? If SK has it all figured out then test their citizens. Because it insults my intelligence to say this is a new virus and folks in the Far East, India and Russia haven't had this for years and worked up an immunity. As well as folks here.

A bit of good news on that front. Johnson & Johnsons antibody test has been approved by the FDA today. It can perform the test in 2 minutes. Its a bit different in other tests in that it is an antibody test. This means it can give a false negative if given too early to test for coronoavirus, but can immediately tell if someone has had it and is in the clear.

https://news.yahoo.com/suspected-sars-vi...26820.html

WASHINGTON — In late November 2018, just over a year before the first coronavirus case was identified in Wuhan, China, U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents at Detroit Metro Airport stopped a Chinese biologist with three vials labeled “Antibodies” in his luggage.

The biologist told the agents that a colleague in China had asked him to deliver the vials to a researcher at a U.S. institute. After examining the vials, however, customs agents came to an alarming conclusion.

“Inspection of the writing on the vials and the stated recipient led inspection personnel to believe the materials contained within the vials may be viable Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) materials,” says an unclassified FBI tactical intelligence report obtained by Yahoo News.

The report, written by the Chemical and Biological Intelligence Unit of the FBI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Directorate (WMDD), does not give the name of the Chinese scientist carrying the suspected SARS and MERS samples, or the intended recipient in the U.S. But the FBI concluded that the incident, and two other cases cited in the report, were part of an alarming pattern.

(03-31-2020 03:43 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  https://news.yahoo.com/suspected-sars-vi...26820.html

WASHINGTON — In late November 2018, just over a year before the first coronavirus case was identified in Wuhan, China, U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents at Detroit Metro Airport stopped a Chinese biologist with three vials labeled “Antibodies” in his luggage.

The biologist told the agents that a colleague in China had asked him to deliver the vials to a researcher at a U.S. institute. After examining the vials, however, customs agents came to an alarming conclusion.

“Inspection of the writing on the vials and the stated recipient led inspection personnel to believe the materials contained within the vials may be viable Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) materials,” says an unclassified FBI tactical intelligence report obtained by Yahoo News.

The report, written by the Chemical and Biological Intelligence Unit of the FBI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Directorate (WMDD), does not give the name of the Chinese scientist carrying the suspected SARS and MERS samples, or the intended recipient in the U.S. But the FBI concluded that the incident, and two other cases cited in the report, were part of an alarming pattern.

No pshit? And how many people here know that the New York subway system is STILL running?

Something weird I've noticed: in all the reporting about Cases and deaths, seldom are the number of coincident recoveries reported at all, or if they are, those numbers are buried or glossed over. Not sure why that seems to be the case and what the rationale is for not giving equal coverage to Recoveries in all the reported stats?

I've noticed statements like the following are too common:

The DPH (Dept of Public Health) does not release compiled data on how many people have recovered.

Why exactly do we not want to talk about and feature numbers of folks who have Recovered/Survived this? What is the harm in giving people some hope in an event like this?

IS it because if reporters breathlessly reported recoveries and stories from those who survived that perhaps the over-reach and economic chaos would not be deemed vital? Would we instead be looking at a far more targeted response, isolating only portions of our population most at risk, and focusing care and resources in a more targeted, and presumably efficient and effective capacity? Would it then not be necessary to throw omnibus gargantuan trillion dollar deficit spending with all kinds of goodies like Kennedy Center funding and special breaks for special interests into the mix without a protest from John Q. Public? What about all the small business owners who could lose their businesses, restaurant, hair stylist, retail workers who won't be helped that much by $1,200 in 3 weeks to 4 months if and when they get it, because their jobs will pay their rents and mortgages, not a few dollars from the gub'mint?

"The Department of Public Health does not include the number of coronavirus cases in senior care homes in its daily updates."

Statements like these are troubling. Why not include those statistics, parsed out from the rest, and feature them just as prominently, as this bug seem to affect seniors disproportionately? Especially dangerous to those who may be in close quarters, such as a group home or care facility? Did not the first 20 deaths in Washington all occur to senior residents of one single care home in Kirkland?

If the senior statistics from homes were parsed out, perhaps the remaining statistics would not look so alarming as to require the rash economic actions being taken?


Statements like the following from a local government official also seem common these days: "if all this is an over-reaction that saves lives, “that would be something we take pride in.”

Really? How would that statement play out in your next job interview or evaluation. How would our enemies evaluate that we think it's fine to overreact in any crisis? What would General Patton have thought of that perspective? Or General Washington? Or any decent military leader? Do they teach our soldiers to over-react when they are in a battle situation? It seems quite the opposite is the thing that is drilled into those facing trauma and crisis. "Doctor, what is your perspective on this? " Dr. Chaos: "Oh, I definitely think the best thing to do is over-react,l since lives are at stake. Taking balanced measures is out the window. Panic at a hospital or medical situation is great--it's what they teach us in medical school." Not.

I care a lot about American citizens and the pain they are going through. I have elderly loved ones very close and am greatly concerned and taking the responsible actions for them, as per my normal modus operandi. I don't wish unnecessary death on any American. I also care deeply about the average American Citizen worker who is being destroyed by the stress, anxiety and confusion of the reaction to this. Can we afford to do this every time? What if China ignores and/or releases another plague even worse and are actually deadly than this one on us? Will our current response leave us with the resources to combat that? Our enemies are watching and they are seeing how we act in this situation. Caveat Emptor.

(04-01-2020 02:13 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  Something weird I've noticed: in all the reporting about Cases and deaths, seldom are the number of coincident recoveries reported at all, or if they are, those numbers are buried or glossed over. Not sure why that seems to be the case and what the rationale is for not giving equal coverage to Recoveries in all the reported stats?

I've noticed statements like the following are too common:

The DPH (Dept of Public Health) does not release compiled data on how many people have recovered.

Why exactly do we not want to talk about and feature numbers of folks who have Recovered/Survived this? What is the harm in giving people some hope in an event like this?

IS it because if reporters breathlessly reported recoveries and stories from those who survived that perhaps the over-reach and economic chaos would not be deemed vital? Would we instead be looking at a far more targeted response, isolating only portions of our population most at risk, and focusing care and resources in a more targeted, and presumably efficient and effective capacity? Would it then not be necessary to throw omnibus gargantuan trillion dollar deficit spending with all kinds of goodies like Kennedy Center funding and special breaks for special interests into the mix without a protest from John Q. Public? What about all the small business owners who could lose their businesses, restaurant, hair stylist, retail workers who won't be helped that much by $1,200 in 3 weeks to 4 months if and when they get it, because their jobs will pay their rents and mortgages, not a few dollars from the gub'mint?

"The Department of Public Health does not include the number of coronavirus cases in senior care homes in its daily updates."

Statements like these are troubling. Why not include those statistics, parsed out from the rest, and feature them just as prominently, as this bug seem to affect seniors disproportionately? Especially dangerous to those who may be in close quarters, such as a group home or care facility? Did not the first 20 deaths in Washington all occur to senior residents of one single care home in Kirkland?

If the senior statistics from homes were parsed out, perhaps the remaining statistics would not look so alarming as to require the rash economic actions being taken?


Statements like the following from a local government official also seem common these days: "if all this is an over-reaction that saves lives, “that would be something we take pride in.”

Really? How would that statement play out in your next job interview or evaluation. How would our enemies evaluate that we think it's fine to overreact in any crisis? What would General Patton have thought of that perspective? Or General Washington? Or any decent military leader? Do they teach our soldiers to over-react when they are in a battle situation? It seems quite the opposite is the thing that is drilled into those facing trauma and crisis. "Doctor, what is your perspective on this? " Dr. Chaos: "Oh, I definitely think the best thing to do is over-react,l since lives are at stake. Taking balanced measures is out the window. Panic at a hospital or medical situation is great--it's what they teach us in medical school." Not.

I care a lot about American citizens and the pain they are going through. I have elderly loved ones very close and am greatly concerned and taking the responsible actions for them, as per my normal modus operandi. I don't wish unnecessary death on any American. I also care deeply about the average American Citizen worker who is being destroyed by the stress, anxiety and confusion of the reaction to this. Can we afford to do this every time? What if China ignores and/or releases another plague even worse and are actually deadly than this one on us? Will our current response leave us with the resources to combat that? Our enemies are watching and they are seeing how we act in this situation. Caveat Emptor.

Probably down to the local health department. I know in TN they are reporting it. As of 2pm today there 2,683 active cases, 24 deaths, 200 hospitalizations, and 137 recovered.

The hospitalization one is slightly concerning, it was only around 18 last Thursday

The thing that really worries me is how easily the American people have allowed the government to strip away Constitutional rights during all of this.'

"But it's only a temporary inconvenience until we get a handle on this situation!" The same thing was said about the USA-PATRIOT Act and here we are still living under it's provisions 14 years and three months after it was supposed to expire.