(03-03-2020 09:11 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Sanders projected to win Colorado. And he's widening his lead in Texas. But Biden doing well overall (he could even sneak out a win in Minnesota of all places).

I think Biden is out preforming the polls in some states, but not enough overall yet. Everyone dropping out and getting behind him at the last second has helped him.

That not a good sign though for a nomination, everyone had to get out of the car and push at the last minute.

And I still don't think its going to be enough in the overall count.

(03-03-2020 09:17 PM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  

(03-03-2020 09:11 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Sanders projected to win Colorado. And he's widening his lead in Texas. But Biden doing well overall (he could even sneak out a win in Minnesota of all places).

I think Biden is out preforming the polls in some states, but not enough overall yet. Everyone dropping out and getting behind him at the last second has helped him.

That not a good sign though for a nomination, everyone had to get out of the car and push at the last minute.

And I still don't think its going to be enough in the overall count.

The issue for Sanders is there are a TON of delegates in Purple/Red states outstanding after today (Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, the upper Midwest, and the remainder of the high AA Southeast)...you'd have to figure most of those states would lean Biden, and if it gets to a contested convention it will ABSOLUTELY go to Biden.

Sanders has benefitted from Caucus states more than any candidate in recent memory, but he is getting killed in total vote count right now.

(03-03-2020 09:13 PM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  

(03-03-2020 08:55 PM)miko33 Wrote:  Based on what I’m seeing so far in the vote counts, Sanders is done. Right now there are only two candidates in this race - Bernie Sanders and Not Sanders. Not is going to be extremely difficult for Bernie to defeat.

Bernie is going to end up with the most delegates unless there are multiple surprises in some of these northern states.

The polls and the early count have Bernie taking Texas right now.

Bernie can still get the most delegates going into the convention but likely lose. If Bernie can’t win 50% plus 1 vote, he’s done.

(03-03-2020 09:21 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(03-03-2020 09:17 PM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  

(03-03-2020 09:11 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Sanders projected to win Colorado. And he's widening his lead in Texas. But Biden doing well overall (he could even sneak out a win in Minnesota of all places).

I think Biden is out preforming the polls in some states, but not enough overall yet. Everyone dropping out and getting behind him at the last second has helped him.

That not a good sign though for a nomination, everyone had to get out of the car and push at the last minute.

And I still don't think its going to be enough in the overall count.

The issue for Sanders is there are a TON of delegates in Purple/Red states outstanding after today...youd have to figure most of those states would lean Biden, and if it gets to a contested convention it will ABSOLUTELY go to Biden.

I'm not the expert here, but I believe the states Bernie is leading in have a lot more delegates, which is why the dem establishment flipped out and convinced all the other leading candidates to suddenly drop out and get behind Bernie.

Joe was excepted all along to win more overall states, but the overall delegate count is really in Bernie's favor.

Right now the only thing Biden has picked up is Virginia. He needs to pick up several more states Bernie was ahead in the polls in. Biden has been ahead in much of the south and purple states all along. But he still has to flip a few more states he was behind in.

I think we are missing the obvious here. The Democrats can't afford to give away any Senate seats. Ultimately none of the Senators will be on the ticket. They are struggling to find a non-Senate ticket.

(03-03-2020 09:01 PM)TripleA Wrote:  First Alabama Pub Senate Primary results coming in. If nobody gets 50%, it's a runoff between the top 2. Looks like Sessions could be in a runoff with either Tuberville or Bradley Byrne, a U.S. Rep.

Only 1% in, but it's a scattering across the state, and according to local news, probably a good representation.

Sessions 38%
Tuberville 28%
Byrne 22%
Moore 7%
Nelson 2%

Who are the 7% idiots?

(03-03-2020 09:26 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(03-03-2020 09:13 PM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  

(03-03-2020 08:55 PM)miko33 Wrote:  Based on what I’m seeing so far in the vote counts, Sanders is done. Right now there are only two candidates in this race - Bernie Sanders and Not Sanders. Not is going to be extremely difficult for Bernie to defeat.

Bernie is going to end up with the most delegates unless there are multiple surprises in some of these northern states.

The polls and the early count have Bernie taking Texas right now.

Bernie can still get the most delegates going into the convention but likely lose. If Bernie can’t win 50% plus 1 vote, he’s done.

Gonna be fun to watch if that happens.

Looks like Cunningham is going to win the NC Democratic Senate primary (Republicans spent some money trying to get his opponent elected). Cunningham vs Tillis is going to be one of the critical Senate races in November.

(03-03-2020 09:21 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(03-03-2020 09:17 PM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  

(03-03-2020 09:11 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Sanders projected to win Colorado. And he's widening his lead in Texas. But Biden doing well overall (he could even sneak out a win in Minnesota of all places).

I think Biden is out preforming the polls in some states, but not enough overall yet. Everyone dropping out and getting behind him at the last second has helped him.

That not a good sign though for a nomination, everyone had to get out of the car and push at the last minute.

And I still don't think its going to be enough in the overall count.

The issue for Sanders is there are a TON of delegates in Purple/Red states outstanding after today (Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, the upper Midwest, and the remainder of the high AA Southeast)...you'd have to figure most of those states would lean Biden, and if it gets to a contested convention it will ABSOLUTELY go to Biden.

Sanders has benefitted from Caucus states more than any candidate in recent memory, but he is getting killed in total vote count right now.

Given how Buttigieg won the delegate count in Iowa, I don't see how your comment makes sense. And there are fewer caucuses than ever before.

(03-03-2020 09:33 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-03-2020 09:21 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(03-03-2020 09:17 PM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  

(03-03-2020 09:11 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Sanders projected to win Colorado. And he's widening his lead in Texas. But Biden doing well overall (he could even sneak out a win in Minnesota of all places).

I think Biden is out preforming the polls in some states, but not enough overall yet. Everyone dropping out and getting behind him at the last second has helped him.

That not a good sign though for a nomination, everyone had to get out of the car and push at the last minute.

And I still don't think its going to be enough in the overall count.

The issue for Sanders is there are a TON of delegates in Purple/Red states outstanding after today (Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, the upper Midwest, and the remainder of the high AA Southeast)...you'd have to figure most of those states would lean Biden, and if it gets to a contested convention it will ABSOLUTELY go to Biden.

Sanders has benefitted from Caucus states more than any candidate in recent memory, but he is getting killed in total vote count right now.

Given how Buttigieg won the delegate count in Iowa, I don't see how your comment makes sense. And there are fewer caucuses than ever before.

You can benefit without winning the most delegates. Compare Bernie's margin of victory in states that changed from Caucuses in '16 to flat primaries in '20.

Also, Biden will likely make it to Convention with the popular vote lead and a solid case to make if (when) it is a contested convention. All I'm saying is that it will be very interesting, and that those downplaying Biden's performance tonight by taking more delegates in contested states that Bernie was projected to win fairly easily in the NE and really running it up in the south are making a mistake thinking this is not a potential turning point.

(03-03-2020 06:59 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-03-2020 06:51 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  FWIW, a bunch of new Super Tuesday polls were released today by the Data for Progress group (whomever they are). They actually have Bernie winning California, Minnesota, Vermont, Maine, Colorado and Utah, Warren winning Massachusetts, and Biden winning the rest (Texas, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas and Oklahoma). I'm not sure I believe whether they're a reputable polling group or not - I find it hard to believe Biden would win Texas for instance. But it does provide some interesting numbers to keep in mind.

Some of the states close their polls in just a few minutes.

Here's an article on some of the more interesting downballot races to watch (Alabama Republican Senate primary being one of them). It's not on the list but Texas House Seat 22 is going to be super interesting on the Republican side too.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/super-tue...Hue5dxYogv

They don't look reputable, but Texas should be close. Most recent ones have Bernie winning MA.

If Biden wins TX and NC its a good result for him. Those 2 and OK and VA were the 4 that looked close based on earlier polls.

36% in, NC called for Biden; Biden 36, Sanders 23, Bloomberg 16. That was a tossup in the polls.
77% in, OK called for Biden; Biden 38, Sanders 25, Bloomberg 15. That was a small lead for Biden (as I recall)
100% in VA called for Biden; Biden 53, Sanders 23. That was unclear in the polls.
Those 3 are good results for Biden.
VT, CO Sanders; AL, TN Biden are as expected.
MA, ME, MN, Sanders and Biden are neck and neck in early results. That is very good for Biden so far. Those looked to be Sanders wins (at least once Klob dropped in MN but her votes seemed to have almost all gone to Biden).
Rest too early

Bloomberg 're-assessing' his campaign tomorrow (which means he's out). Warren will be out too unless she pulls off a miracle in California. It will be Bernie and Biden after that.

(03-03-2020 09:39 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(03-03-2020 09:33 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-03-2020 09:21 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(03-03-2020 09:17 PM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  

(03-03-2020 09:11 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Sanders projected to win Colorado. And he's widening his lead in Texas. But Biden doing well overall (he could even sneak out a win in Minnesota of all places).

I think Biden is out preforming the polls in some states, but not enough overall yet. Everyone dropping out and getting behind him at the last second has helped him.

That not a good sign though for a nomination, everyone had to get out of the car and push at the last minute.

And I still don't think its going to be enough in the overall count.

The issue for Sanders is there are a TON of delegates in Purple/Red states outstanding after today (Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, the upper Midwest, and the remainder of the high AA Southeast)...you'd have to figure most of those states would lean Biden, and if it gets to a contested convention it will ABSOLUTELY go to Biden.

Sanders has benefitted from Caucus states more than any candidate in recent memory, but he is getting killed in total vote count right now.

Given how Buttigieg won the delegate count in Iowa, I don't see how your comment makes sense. And there are fewer caucuses than ever before.

You can benefit without winning the most delegates. Compare Bernie's margin of victory in states that changed from Caucuses in '16 to flat primaries in '20.

Also, Biden will likely make it to Convention with the popular vote lead and a solid case to make if (when) it is a contested convention. All I'm saying is that it will be very interesting, and that those downplaying Biden's performance tonight by taking more delegates in contested states that Bernie was projected to win fairly easily in the NE and really running it up in the south are making a mistake thinking this is not a potential turning point.

So you are saying he benefited from caucuses in 2016? Candidates with more committed followings do well in caucus states over Clintons, Bloombergs, Bidens and Klobuchars.

(03-03-2020 09:32 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-03-2020 09:01 PM)TripleA Wrote:  First Alabama Pub Senate Primary results coming in. If nobody gets 50%, it's a runoff between the top 2. Looks like Sessions could be in a runoff with either Tuberville or Bradley Byrne, a U.S. Rep.

Only 1% in, but it's a scattering across the state, and according to local news, probably a good representation.

Sessions 38%
Tuberville 28%
Byrne 22%
Moore 7%
Nelson 2%

Who are the 7% idiots?

The remnants of those who voted for Moore last time in the primary and eventually handed the Senate seat to Jones. Temporarily.

(03-03-2020 08:58 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Things trending much better in Texas, which makes me feel a lot better.

(03-03-2020 09:48 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-03-2020 09:39 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(03-03-2020 09:33 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-03-2020 09:21 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(03-03-2020 09:17 PM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  I think Biden is out preforming the polls in some states, but not enough overall yet. Everyone dropping out and getting behind him at the last second has helped him.

That not a good sign though for a nomination, everyone had to get out of the car and push at the last minute.

And I still don't think its going to be enough in the overall count.

The issue for Sanders is there are a TON of delegates in Purple/Red states outstanding after today (Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, the upper Midwest, and the remainder of the high AA Southeast)...you'd have to figure most of those states would lean Biden, and if it gets to a contested convention it will ABSOLUTELY go to Biden.

Sanders has benefitted from Caucus states more than any candidate in recent memory, but he is getting killed in total vote count right now.

Given how Buttigieg won the delegate count in Iowa, I don't see how your comment makes sense. And there are fewer caucuses than ever before.

You can benefit without winning the most delegates. Compare Bernie's margin of victory in states that changed from Caucuses in '16 to flat primaries in '20.

Also, Biden will likely make it to Convention with the popular vote lead and a solid case to make if (when) it is a contested convention. All I'm saying is that it will be very interesting, and that those downplaying Biden's performance tonight by taking more delegates in contested states that Bernie was projected to win fairly easily in the NE and really running it up in the south are making a mistake thinking this is not a potential turning point.

So you are saying he benefited from caucuses in 2016? Candidates with more committed followings do well in caucus states over Clintons, Bloombergs, Bidens and Klobuchars.

Exactly, because in Caucus situations, many individuals who are significantly "attached" to an individual candidate will not make sacrifices for any reason. Primary states are more a measure of general viability than individual voter passion to many people.

(03-03-2020 08:58 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Things trending much better in Texas, which makes me feel a lot better.

I don't have a dog in this hunt, but the way things are popping tonight, it looks like Bernie and Biden will easily be the last 2 standing. If neither gets a majority before Milwaukee, you know the Super Doopers are going to pick Biden.

Even if Sanders comes out tonight with more delegates, Biden is pulling a much bigger percentage than the polls indicated.

Also, Warren and Bloomie need to jump ship. Warren is dragging down Bernie, and Bloomie is doing it to Biden.

Biden wins MN. Sanders is down to being favored in only 8 states nationwide.

It's over.

Biggest loser - the race for the Dem nomination

Bernie should just go ahead and start his Green Party PAC now because Slo Joe is going to win a contested convention. It’s a done deal.